BBCA Kekuatan CASA yang Terbukti 20180823 NHKS Company Report (Bahasa)
Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)
Kekuatan CASA yang Terbukti
Company Report | Aug 23, 2018
Kinerja 2Q18: Net Interest Income Tertinggi dalam Sejarah
BBCA mencetak interest income sebesar Rp13,7 triliun (+2,5% y-y; +1,7%
q-q). Angka ini menghentikan tren penurunan secara kuartalan yang
terjadi sejak 4Q17. Di sisi lain, net interest income tercatat sebesar Rp11,0
triliun yang merupakan posisi tertinggi dalam sejarah. Sementara itu, laba
bersih tercatat sebesar Rp5,9 triliun (+6,6% y-y).
BBCA membukukan penyaluran kredit sebesar Rp502,2 triliun (+13,7% y-y).
Pertumbuhan di kisaran 14% ini mampu terjaga dengan baik sejak 1Q18.
Segmen corporate yang mendominasi sekitar 39% dari total kredit BBCA
mampu melonjak 19,1% y-y menjadi Rp191,4 triliun.
Keunggulan CASA
Total deposit BBCA mencapai Rp615,6 triliun (+7,6% y-y) pada 2Q18. CASA
tercatat sebesar 481,2 triliun atau 78,2% dari total deposit. Rasio 78,2%
merupakan yang tertinggi sejak 3Q16. Di tengah tantangan perlambatan
deposit secara umum di Indonesia, BBCA mampu menjaga pertumbuhan
CASA sebesar 11,3% dan 12,7% pada 1Q18 dan 2Q18. Di sisi lain, time
deposit pada 2Q18 turun 7,6% y-y.
Keunggulan CASA merupakan kunci penting bagi kinerja net interest
income. Pada 1Q18 dan 2Q18, BBCA mampu mencetak pertumbuhan net
interest income (7,0% dan 6,7%) yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan
pertumbuhan interest income (3,8% dan 2,5%).
Target Harga Rp27.650
Kami menggunakan asumsi forward P/B sebesar 4,0x (2SD di atas rata-rata
4 tahun terakhir sebesar 3,3x) sebagai basis metode valuasi. Target harga
ini mengimplikasikan P/B 2018E sebesar 4,7x (vs. 4,0x saat ini).
Bank Central Asia Tbk | Summary (IDR bn)
2016/12A
2017/12A
Interest Income
50,426
53,768
growth
7.1%
6.6%
Operating Revenue
53,779
56,982
Net profit
20,606
23,310
EPS (IDR)
836
945
EPS growth
14.4%
13.1%
BVPS (IDR)
4,572
5,330
Net Interest Margin
6.6%
6.1%
Loan/Deposits
80.1%
82.0%
NPL
1.3%
1.5%
ROE
20.4%
19.1%
ROA
3.2%
3.3%
22.9%
20.1%
ROIC
P/E
18.5x
23.2x
P/BV
3.4x
4.1x
DPS (IDR)
200
255
Dividend yield
0.8%
1.0%
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
2018/12E
56,689
5.4%
61,665
25,312
1,027
8.6%
5,929
6.0%
83.7%
1.4%
18.2%
3.2%
19.1%
23.3x
4.0x
277
1.1%
Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia
2019/12E
66,367
17.1%
71,589
29,874
1,212
18.0%
6,927
6.2%
82.8%
1.3%
18.9%
3.3%
19.5%
19.7x
3.5x
327
1.3%
Buy
Dec 2018 TP (IDR)
27,650
Consensus Price (IDR)
TP to Consensus Price
vs. Last Price
24,500
+12.9%
+15.7%
Shares data
Last Price (IDR)
Price date as of
52 wk range (Hi/Lo)
Free float (%)
Outstanding sh.(mn)
Market Cap (IDR bn)
Market Cap (USD mn)
Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)
Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)
Foreign Ownership
23,900
Aug 20, 2018
24,700/18,675
43.1
24,655
587,406
40,137
15.67
353.69
27.1%
Finance
Bank
BBCA IJ
BBCA.JK
Bloomberg
Reuters
Raphon Prima
+62 21 797 6202, ext:214
[email protected]
Share Price Performance
Abs. Ret.
Rel. Ret.
YTD
1M
9.1% 3.5%
16.4% 3.1%
3M
10.4%
7.6%
12M
27.1%
26.6%
Company Report
Aug 23, 2018
Sekilas tentang BBCA
BBCA merupakan bank swasta terbesar di Indonesia. Sekitar 39% dari total kredit BBCA
disalurkan ke segmen korporasi. Kontribusi penyaluran kredit ke segmen ini mencatatkan
kenaikan signifikan dari 35% pada 2014. Sementara itu, kontribusi penyaluran kredit ke
segmen komersial dan UKM konsisten turun dari 39% pada 2014 menjadi 35% pada
2Q18.
Didukung oleh 1.235 cabang, BBCA memiliki jaringan distribusi yang cukup luas di
Indonesia. Dari sisi dana pihak ketiga, produk tabungan memiliki kontribusi yang
mencapai 50% dari total dana pihak ketiga. Tingginya kontribusi ini ditopang oleh fakta
BBCA sebagai bank swasta utama yang dipilih masyarakat Indonesia untuk menabung.
Daya Saing Perbankan Indonesia di ASEAN
Industri perbankan di Indonesia menjadi prioritas investasi utama di ASEAN karena
menawarkan suku bunga kredit yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan suku bunga yang
ditawarkan bank lain di ASEAN. Hal ini merupakan faktor utama keunggulan industri
perbankan di Indonesia.
Bank di Indonesia masih mampu mempertahankan NIM di atas bank ASEAN lain
meskipun sedang menghadapi tekanan penurunan suku bunga acuan oleh bank sentral.
Keunggulan NIM ini mampu ditranslasikan menjadi ROE yang lebih tinggi.
Bank di Indonesia mampu mencetak pertumbuhan laba bersih di kisaran 10%-20% yang
mampu disaingi oleh beberapa bank di Malaysia dan Singapura, seperti OCBC, CIMB dan
UOB. Namun, tiga bank tersebut memiliki aset yang jauh lebih besar dibandingkan
dengan aset bank di Indonesia.
ASEAN Banks
Company
Market Cap
(USD mn)
Net
Interest
Total Asset
Net Profit
(USD mn) Growth (LTM) Margin
(LTM)
ROE (LTM) P/E (LTM) P/BV (LTM)
Dividend
Yield
BBCA
BBRI
BMRI
BBNI
BBTN
40,137
26,549
21,603
9,429
1,852
55,219
82,886
82,772
52,203
19,235
12.2%
11.0%
44.3%
9.4%
11.7%
6.0%
7.9%
5.5%
5.5%
4.4%
18.8%
19.3%
14.5%
15.5%
15.1%
24.3x
12.6x
13.5x
9.4x
8.5x
4.3x
2.3x
1.9x
1.4x
1.2x
1.1%
3.4%
2.9%
3.5%
2.2%
Singapore
DBS
UOB
OCBC
47,604
33,116
34,404
387,334
268,287
340,370
11.1%
19.2%
21.4%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
10.3%
11.3%
11.5%
13.5x
12.0x
10.8x
1.4x
1.3x
1.2x
6.7%
4.2%
3.5%
Malaysia
CIMB
Malayan Banking
Hong Leong
13,538
26,111
5,081
124,711
188,433
50,939
17.0%
9.5%
4.3%
2.4%
1.8%
1.6%
9.8%
10.7%
10.0%
11.7x
13.4x
12.2x
1.2x
1.5x
1.2x
4.2%
5.6%
2.2%
Thailand
Bangkok Bank
Siam Commercial
Bank of Ayudhya
12,048
15,012
8,915
94,446
92,841
64,128
6.7%
-13.0%
7.5%
2.4%
3.2%
3.7%
8.9%
11.7%
10.7%
11.3x
11.8x
12.1x
1.0x
1.3x
1.3x
3.1%
3.8%
2.1%
Philippine
BDO Unibank
Metropolitan Bank
Philippine Island Bank
10,341
5,388
7,716
53,371
41,612
38,084
6.4%
6.5%
3.2%
4.1%
3.8%
3.6%
9.5%
8.3%
10.5%
20.2x
12.3x
17.5x
1.9x
1.1x
1.7x
0.9%
1.3%
1.9%
Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 22
Company Report
Aug 23, 2018
Performance Highlights
Interest Income (IDR bn)
Net Profit (IDR bn)
Source: Company, NHKS research
Source: Company, NHKS research
Outstanding Loan (IDR bn)
Third Party Fund (IDR bn)
Source: Company, NHKS research
Source: Company, NHKS research
Loan Composition
Loan Yield, Cost of Deposit, NIM
Source: Company, NHKS research
Source: Company, NHKS research
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 33
Company Report
Aug 23, 2018
Multiple Valuation
Forward P/B band | Last 4 years
Dynamic Forward P/B band | Last 4 years
Source: NHKS research
Source: NHKS research
Rating and target price update
Target Price Revision
Date
10/04/2017
4/03/2018
5/14/2018
8/23/2018
Rating
Buy
Hold
Hold
Buy
Target Price
24,100 (Dec 2018)
24,975 (Dec 2018)
25,400 (Dec 2018)
27,650 (Dec 2018)
Last Price
20,325
23,400
22,900
23,900
Consensus
19,622
23,727
24,077
24,500
vs Last Price
+18.6%
+6.7%
+10.9%
+15.7%
vs Consensus
+22.8%
+5.3%
+5.5%
+12.9%
Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg
Analyst Coverage Rating
Closing and Target Price
Source: Bloomberg
Source: NHKS research
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings
1.
2.
Period: End of year target price
Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication
Buy
: Greater than +15%
Hold
: -15% to +15%
Sell
: Less than -15%
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 44
Company Report
Aug 23, 2018
Summary of Financials
BBCA Summary
Last Price (IDR)
Target Price (IDR)
Analyst: Raphon Prima
August 20, 2018
Dec 2018
Rating:
23,900
27,650
Buy
INCOME STATEMENT
in IDR bn
Interest Income
Growth (% y/y)
Interes t Expens es
Net Interest Income
Net Interest Margin
Net Fee Income
Tra di ng Income
Other Opera ti ng Income
Operating Revenue
Opera ti ng Expens es
Pre-provisioning OP (PPOP)
Provi s i on for Impa i rment
EBT
Income Ta x
Non-control l i ng Interes t
Net Profit
Growth (% y/y)
2016/12A
50,426
7.1%
10,347
40,079
6.6%
9,401
2,346
1,954
53,779
(23,379)
30,400
(4,561)
25,839
(5,207)
(27)
20,606
14.4%
2017/12A
53,768
6.6%
11,941
41,826
6.1%
10,386
1,804
2,966
56,982
(25,190)
31,791
(2,633)
29,159
(5,838)
(11)
23,310
13.1%
2018/12E
56,689
5.4%
11,232
45,458
6.0%
11,546
1,829
2,832
61,665
(27,517)
34,148
(2,489)
31,659
(6,338)
(9)
25,312
8.6%
2019/12E
66,367
17.1%
13,650
52,717
6.2%
13,390
2,197
3,285
71,589
(31,945)
39,644
(2,273)
37,371
(7,482)
(16)
29,874
18.0%
2018/12E
18,325
83,824
525,942
151,175
17,352
38,127
834,744
656,555
3,968
28,039
688,562
1,541
134,658
146,182
2019/12E
26,337
97,641
594,389
170,962
19,986
40,580
949,894
748,846
4,474
25,795
779,115
1,541
157,319
170,779
PROFITABILITY & STABILITY
ROE
ROA
ROIC
Opera ti ng ROA
Pre-Provi s i on ROA
Non-Interes t Income/Op. Rev
Cos t/Income
Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn)
Di vi dend Yi el d (%)
Pa yout Ra ti o (%)
Equi ty/As s ets
Loa n/Depos i ts
Loa n/As s ets
NPL
Loan Loss Reserves/Loans
Depos i ts /Li a bi l i ti es
CASA/Depos i ts
Time Deposits/Deposits
Pa r Va l ue (IDR)
Tota l Sha res (mn)
Sha re Pri ce (IDR)
Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn)
BALANCE SHEET
in IDR bn
Ca s h
Pl a cement i n Ba nks
Net Loa ns
Inves tment
Fi xed As s et
Other As s ets
Total Assets
Depos i ts
Debt
Other l i a bi l i ti es
Total Liabilities
Ca pi ta l Stock
Reta i ned Ea rni ngs
Shareholders' Equity
2016/12A
15,944
88,427
411,761
116,384
16,991
27,233
676,739
538,866
5,378
19,780
564,024
1,541
98,503
112,715
2017/12A
16,754
71,536
462,953
146,365
16,869
35,842
750,320
591,330
3,801
23,787
618,918
1,541
115,998
131,402
2016/12A
20,606
6,449
(8,372)
18,682
(30,904)
(91,501)
(4,315)
57,145
54,477
(18,341)
2017/12A
23,310
4,012
(13,040)
14,283
(57,087)
(77,708)
(5,178)
51,606
45,808
(17,617)
2018/12E
25,312
2,245
(10,107)
17,450
(62,666)
(55,403)
(6,456)
65,582
55,235
17,282
%
72.9
13.2
4.3
1.6
2018/12E
18.2%
3.2%
19.1%
7.8%
4.3%
26.3%
44.6%
6,827
1.1%
27.0%
17.5%
83.7%
64.7%
1.4%
2.6%
1.7%
78.3%
21.7%
63
24,655
23,900
589.3
2019/12E
18.9%
3.3%
19.5%
8.0%
4.4%
26.4%
44.6%
8,057
1.3%
27.0%
18.0%
82.8%
64.1%
1.3%
2.4%
1.7%
79.8%
20.2%
63
24,655
23,900
589.3
Shareholders
Dwi muri a Inves ta ma
Sa l i m Anthoni
Ca pi ta l Group
Va ngua rd Group
2016/12A 2017/12A
18.5x
23.2x
3.4x
4.1x
7.1x
9.5x
1.3x
1.8x
6.9x
9.3x
12.2x
16.6x
371,868
527,090
16.8%
11.6%
13.1%
12.2%
836
945
836
945
4,572
5,330
2,181
2,311
200
255
Pri ce /Ea rni ngs
Pri ce /Book Va l ue
Pri ce/Op. Revenue
PE/EPS Growth
EV/Opera ti ng Revenue
EV/PPOP
EV (IDR bn)
Op. Revenue CAGR (3-Yr)
EPS CAGR (3-Yr)
Ba s i c EPS (IDR)
Di l uted EPS (IDR)
BVPS (IDR)
Op. Revenue PS (IDR)
DPS (IDR)
2018/12E
23.3x
4.0x
9.6x
2.7x
9.3x
16.8x
574,994
8.8%
12.0%
1,027
1,027
5,929
2,501
277
2019/12E
19.7x
3.5x
8.2x
1.1x
7.9x
14.3x
567,486
10.0%
13.2%
1,212
1,212
6,927
2,904
327
2018/12E
2019/12E
DCF, RIM & EVA
2019/12E
29,874
743
(4,686)
25,931
(82,674)
(105,440)
(7,213)
92,291
87,520
8,012
OWNERSHIP
By Geography
Indones i a
Uni ted Sta tes
Luxembourg
Uni ted Ki ngdom
2017/12A
19.1%
3.3%
20.1%
8.0%
4.5%
26.6%
44.2%
6,287
1.0%
27.0%
17.5%
82.0%
63.5%
1.5%
2.9%
1.7%
76.3%
23.7%
63
24,655
21,900
539.9
VALUATION INDEX
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
in IDR bn
Net Income
Deprec & Provi s i on
Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l
CFO
Net Cha nges i n Loa n
CFI
Di vi dends Pa i d
Net Cha nges i n Depos i t
CFF
Net Changes in Cash
2016/12A
20.4%
3.2%
22.9%
8.5%
4.8%
25.5%
43.5%
4,931
0.8%
23.9%
16.7%
80.1%
62.7%
1.3%
3.0%
1.5%
77.0%
23.0%
63
24,655
15,500
382.2
%
54.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
DCF (IDR bn)
NOPAT
+Depr./Amor.
-Chg. i n Loa n
-Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p.
(Unl evered) FCFF
WACC
Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.)
Cos t of Equi ty (COE)
WACC (%)
RIM
Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%)
Res i dua l Income (IDR bn)
Equi ty Cha rge
EVA
Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn)
ROIC-WACC (%)
EVA (IDR bn)
2016/12A
2017/12A
24,274
6,449
(30,904)
(8,372)
(57,267)
25,427
4,012
(57,087)
(13,040)
(90,314)
27,312
2,245
(62,666)
(10,107)
(115,783)
31,707
743
(82,674)
(4,686)
(50,223)
7.8%
10.0%
9.9%
5.9%
10.4%
10.1%
7.4%
10.6%
10.1%
7.5%
10.7%
10.0%
13.0%
11,673
8,933
10.3%
11,566
11,744
8.7%
11,436
13,876
9.8%
14,291
15,583
94,302
15.8%
14,904
118,093
11.4%
13,490
135,203
10.1%
13,679
150,150
11.1%
16,651
DISCLAIMER
This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This
report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling
offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information here is obtained
from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees,
and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person
as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for
errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom.
All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 55
Kekuatan CASA yang Terbukti
Company Report | Aug 23, 2018
Kinerja 2Q18: Net Interest Income Tertinggi dalam Sejarah
BBCA mencetak interest income sebesar Rp13,7 triliun (+2,5% y-y; +1,7%
q-q). Angka ini menghentikan tren penurunan secara kuartalan yang
terjadi sejak 4Q17. Di sisi lain, net interest income tercatat sebesar Rp11,0
triliun yang merupakan posisi tertinggi dalam sejarah. Sementara itu, laba
bersih tercatat sebesar Rp5,9 triliun (+6,6% y-y).
BBCA membukukan penyaluran kredit sebesar Rp502,2 triliun (+13,7% y-y).
Pertumbuhan di kisaran 14% ini mampu terjaga dengan baik sejak 1Q18.
Segmen corporate yang mendominasi sekitar 39% dari total kredit BBCA
mampu melonjak 19,1% y-y menjadi Rp191,4 triliun.
Keunggulan CASA
Total deposit BBCA mencapai Rp615,6 triliun (+7,6% y-y) pada 2Q18. CASA
tercatat sebesar 481,2 triliun atau 78,2% dari total deposit. Rasio 78,2%
merupakan yang tertinggi sejak 3Q16. Di tengah tantangan perlambatan
deposit secara umum di Indonesia, BBCA mampu menjaga pertumbuhan
CASA sebesar 11,3% dan 12,7% pada 1Q18 dan 2Q18. Di sisi lain, time
deposit pada 2Q18 turun 7,6% y-y.
Keunggulan CASA merupakan kunci penting bagi kinerja net interest
income. Pada 1Q18 dan 2Q18, BBCA mampu mencetak pertumbuhan net
interest income (7,0% dan 6,7%) yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan
pertumbuhan interest income (3,8% dan 2,5%).
Target Harga Rp27.650
Kami menggunakan asumsi forward P/B sebesar 4,0x (2SD di atas rata-rata
4 tahun terakhir sebesar 3,3x) sebagai basis metode valuasi. Target harga
ini mengimplikasikan P/B 2018E sebesar 4,7x (vs. 4,0x saat ini).
Bank Central Asia Tbk | Summary (IDR bn)
2016/12A
2017/12A
Interest Income
50,426
53,768
growth
7.1%
6.6%
Operating Revenue
53,779
56,982
Net profit
20,606
23,310
EPS (IDR)
836
945
EPS growth
14.4%
13.1%
BVPS (IDR)
4,572
5,330
Net Interest Margin
6.6%
6.1%
Loan/Deposits
80.1%
82.0%
NPL
1.3%
1.5%
ROE
20.4%
19.1%
ROA
3.2%
3.3%
22.9%
20.1%
ROIC
P/E
18.5x
23.2x
P/BV
3.4x
4.1x
DPS (IDR)
200
255
Dividend yield
0.8%
1.0%
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
2018/12E
56,689
5.4%
61,665
25,312
1,027
8.6%
5,929
6.0%
83.7%
1.4%
18.2%
3.2%
19.1%
23.3x
4.0x
277
1.1%
Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia
2019/12E
66,367
17.1%
71,589
29,874
1,212
18.0%
6,927
6.2%
82.8%
1.3%
18.9%
3.3%
19.5%
19.7x
3.5x
327
1.3%
Buy
Dec 2018 TP (IDR)
27,650
Consensus Price (IDR)
TP to Consensus Price
vs. Last Price
24,500
+12.9%
+15.7%
Shares data
Last Price (IDR)
Price date as of
52 wk range (Hi/Lo)
Free float (%)
Outstanding sh.(mn)
Market Cap (IDR bn)
Market Cap (USD mn)
Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)
Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)
Foreign Ownership
23,900
Aug 20, 2018
24,700/18,675
43.1
24,655
587,406
40,137
15.67
353.69
27.1%
Finance
Bank
BBCA IJ
BBCA.JK
Bloomberg
Reuters
Raphon Prima
+62 21 797 6202, ext:214
[email protected]
Share Price Performance
Abs. Ret.
Rel. Ret.
YTD
1M
9.1% 3.5%
16.4% 3.1%
3M
10.4%
7.6%
12M
27.1%
26.6%
Company Report
Aug 23, 2018
Sekilas tentang BBCA
BBCA merupakan bank swasta terbesar di Indonesia. Sekitar 39% dari total kredit BBCA
disalurkan ke segmen korporasi. Kontribusi penyaluran kredit ke segmen ini mencatatkan
kenaikan signifikan dari 35% pada 2014. Sementara itu, kontribusi penyaluran kredit ke
segmen komersial dan UKM konsisten turun dari 39% pada 2014 menjadi 35% pada
2Q18.
Didukung oleh 1.235 cabang, BBCA memiliki jaringan distribusi yang cukup luas di
Indonesia. Dari sisi dana pihak ketiga, produk tabungan memiliki kontribusi yang
mencapai 50% dari total dana pihak ketiga. Tingginya kontribusi ini ditopang oleh fakta
BBCA sebagai bank swasta utama yang dipilih masyarakat Indonesia untuk menabung.
Daya Saing Perbankan Indonesia di ASEAN
Industri perbankan di Indonesia menjadi prioritas investasi utama di ASEAN karena
menawarkan suku bunga kredit yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan suku bunga yang
ditawarkan bank lain di ASEAN. Hal ini merupakan faktor utama keunggulan industri
perbankan di Indonesia.
Bank di Indonesia masih mampu mempertahankan NIM di atas bank ASEAN lain
meskipun sedang menghadapi tekanan penurunan suku bunga acuan oleh bank sentral.
Keunggulan NIM ini mampu ditranslasikan menjadi ROE yang lebih tinggi.
Bank di Indonesia mampu mencetak pertumbuhan laba bersih di kisaran 10%-20% yang
mampu disaingi oleh beberapa bank di Malaysia dan Singapura, seperti OCBC, CIMB dan
UOB. Namun, tiga bank tersebut memiliki aset yang jauh lebih besar dibandingkan
dengan aset bank di Indonesia.
ASEAN Banks
Company
Market Cap
(USD mn)
Net
Interest
Total Asset
Net Profit
(USD mn) Growth (LTM) Margin
(LTM)
ROE (LTM) P/E (LTM) P/BV (LTM)
Dividend
Yield
BBCA
BBRI
BMRI
BBNI
BBTN
40,137
26,549
21,603
9,429
1,852
55,219
82,886
82,772
52,203
19,235
12.2%
11.0%
44.3%
9.4%
11.7%
6.0%
7.9%
5.5%
5.5%
4.4%
18.8%
19.3%
14.5%
15.5%
15.1%
24.3x
12.6x
13.5x
9.4x
8.5x
4.3x
2.3x
1.9x
1.4x
1.2x
1.1%
3.4%
2.9%
3.5%
2.2%
Singapore
DBS
UOB
OCBC
47,604
33,116
34,404
387,334
268,287
340,370
11.1%
19.2%
21.4%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
10.3%
11.3%
11.5%
13.5x
12.0x
10.8x
1.4x
1.3x
1.2x
6.7%
4.2%
3.5%
Malaysia
CIMB
Malayan Banking
Hong Leong
13,538
26,111
5,081
124,711
188,433
50,939
17.0%
9.5%
4.3%
2.4%
1.8%
1.6%
9.8%
10.7%
10.0%
11.7x
13.4x
12.2x
1.2x
1.5x
1.2x
4.2%
5.6%
2.2%
Thailand
Bangkok Bank
Siam Commercial
Bank of Ayudhya
12,048
15,012
8,915
94,446
92,841
64,128
6.7%
-13.0%
7.5%
2.4%
3.2%
3.7%
8.9%
11.7%
10.7%
11.3x
11.8x
12.1x
1.0x
1.3x
1.3x
3.1%
3.8%
2.1%
Philippine
BDO Unibank
Metropolitan Bank
Philippine Island Bank
10,341
5,388
7,716
53,371
41,612
38,084
6.4%
6.5%
3.2%
4.1%
3.8%
3.6%
9.5%
8.3%
10.5%
20.2x
12.3x
17.5x
1.9x
1.1x
1.7x
0.9%
1.3%
1.9%
Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 22
Company Report
Aug 23, 2018
Performance Highlights
Interest Income (IDR bn)
Net Profit (IDR bn)
Source: Company, NHKS research
Source: Company, NHKS research
Outstanding Loan (IDR bn)
Third Party Fund (IDR bn)
Source: Company, NHKS research
Source: Company, NHKS research
Loan Composition
Loan Yield, Cost of Deposit, NIM
Source: Company, NHKS research
Source: Company, NHKS research
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 33
Company Report
Aug 23, 2018
Multiple Valuation
Forward P/B band | Last 4 years
Dynamic Forward P/B band | Last 4 years
Source: NHKS research
Source: NHKS research
Rating and target price update
Target Price Revision
Date
10/04/2017
4/03/2018
5/14/2018
8/23/2018
Rating
Buy
Hold
Hold
Buy
Target Price
24,100 (Dec 2018)
24,975 (Dec 2018)
25,400 (Dec 2018)
27,650 (Dec 2018)
Last Price
20,325
23,400
22,900
23,900
Consensus
19,622
23,727
24,077
24,500
vs Last Price
+18.6%
+6.7%
+10.9%
+15.7%
vs Consensus
+22.8%
+5.3%
+5.5%
+12.9%
Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg
Analyst Coverage Rating
Closing and Target Price
Source: Bloomberg
Source: NHKS research
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings
1.
2.
Period: End of year target price
Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication
Buy
: Greater than +15%
Hold
: -15% to +15%
Sell
: Less than -15%
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 44
Company Report
Aug 23, 2018
Summary of Financials
BBCA Summary
Last Price (IDR)
Target Price (IDR)
Analyst: Raphon Prima
August 20, 2018
Dec 2018
Rating:
23,900
27,650
Buy
INCOME STATEMENT
in IDR bn
Interest Income
Growth (% y/y)
Interes t Expens es
Net Interest Income
Net Interest Margin
Net Fee Income
Tra di ng Income
Other Opera ti ng Income
Operating Revenue
Opera ti ng Expens es
Pre-provisioning OP (PPOP)
Provi s i on for Impa i rment
EBT
Income Ta x
Non-control l i ng Interes t
Net Profit
Growth (% y/y)
2016/12A
50,426
7.1%
10,347
40,079
6.6%
9,401
2,346
1,954
53,779
(23,379)
30,400
(4,561)
25,839
(5,207)
(27)
20,606
14.4%
2017/12A
53,768
6.6%
11,941
41,826
6.1%
10,386
1,804
2,966
56,982
(25,190)
31,791
(2,633)
29,159
(5,838)
(11)
23,310
13.1%
2018/12E
56,689
5.4%
11,232
45,458
6.0%
11,546
1,829
2,832
61,665
(27,517)
34,148
(2,489)
31,659
(6,338)
(9)
25,312
8.6%
2019/12E
66,367
17.1%
13,650
52,717
6.2%
13,390
2,197
3,285
71,589
(31,945)
39,644
(2,273)
37,371
(7,482)
(16)
29,874
18.0%
2018/12E
18,325
83,824
525,942
151,175
17,352
38,127
834,744
656,555
3,968
28,039
688,562
1,541
134,658
146,182
2019/12E
26,337
97,641
594,389
170,962
19,986
40,580
949,894
748,846
4,474
25,795
779,115
1,541
157,319
170,779
PROFITABILITY & STABILITY
ROE
ROA
ROIC
Opera ti ng ROA
Pre-Provi s i on ROA
Non-Interes t Income/Op. Rev
Cos t/Income
Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn)
Di vi dend Yi el d (%)
Pa yout Ra ti o (%)
Equi ty/As s ets
Loa n/Depos i ts
Loa n/As s ets
NPL
Loan Loss Reserves/Loans
Depos i ts /Li a bi l i ti es
CASA/Depos i ts
Time Deposits/Deposits
Pa r Va l ue (IDR)
Tota l Sha res (mn)
Sha re Pri ce (IDR)
Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn)
BALANCE SHEET
in IDR bn
Ca s h
Pl a cement i n Ba nks
Net Loa ns
Inves tment
Fi xed As s et
Other As s ets
Total Assets
Depos i ts
Debt
Other l i a bi l i ti es
Total Liabilities
Ca pi ta l Stock
Reta i ned Ea rni ngs
Shareholders' Equity
2016/12A
15,944
88,427
411,761
116,384
16,991
27,233
676,739
538,866
5,378
19,780
564,024
1,541
98,503
112,715
2017/12A
16,754
71,536
462,953
146,365
16,869
35,842
750,320
591,330
3,801
23,787
618,918
1,541
115,998
131,402
2016/12A
20,606
6,449
(8,372)
18,682
(30,904)
(91,501)
(4,315)
57,145
54,477
(18,341)
2017/12A
23,310
4,012
(13,040)
14,283
(57,087)
(77,708)
(5,178)
51,606
45,808
(17,617)
2018/12E
25,312
2,245
(10,107)
17,450
(62,666)
(55,403)
(6,456)
65,582
55,235
17,282
%
72.9
13.2
4.3
1.6
2018/12E
18.2%
3.2%
19.1%
7.8%
4.3%
26.3%
44.6%
6,827
1.1%
27.0%
17.5%
83.7%
64.7%
1.4%
2.6%
1.7%
78.3%
21.7%
63
24,655
23,900
589.3
2019/12E
18.9%
3.3%
19.5%
8.0%
4.4%
26.4%
44.6%
8,057
1.3%
27.0%
18.0%
82.8%
64.1%
1.3%
2.4%
1.7%
79.8%
20.2%
63
24,655
23,900
589.3
Shareholders
Dwi muri a Inves ta ma
Sa l i m Anthoni
Ca pi ta l Group
Va ngua rd Group
2016/12A 2017/12A
18.5x
23.2x
3.4x
4.1x
7.1x
9.5x
1.3x
1.8x
6.9x
9.3x
12.2x
16.6x
371,868
527,090
16.8%
11.6%
13.1%
12.2%
836
945
836
945
4,572
5,330
2,181
2,311
200
255
Pri ce /Ea rni ngs
Pri ce /Book Va l ue
Pri ce/Op. Revenue
PE/EPS Growth
EV/Opera ti ng Revenue
EV/PPOP
EV (IDR bn)
Op. Revenue CAGR (3-Yr)
EPS CAGR (3-Yr)
Ba s i c EPS (IDR)
Di l uted EPS (IDR)
BVPS (IDR)
Op. Revenue PS (IDR)
DPS (IDR)
2018/12E
23.3x
4.0x
9.6x
2.7x
9.3x
16.8x
574,994
8.8%
12.0%
1,027
1,027
5,929
2,501
277
2019/12E
19.7x
3.5x
8.2x
1.1x
7.9x
14.3x
567,486
10.0%
13.2%
1,212
1,212
6,927
2,904
327
2018/12E
2019/12E
DCF, RIM & EVA
2019/12E
29,874
743
(4,686)
25,931
(82,674)
(105,440)
(7,213)
92,291
87,520
8,012
OWNERSHIP
By Geography
Indones i a
Uni ted Sta tes
Luxembourg
Uni ted Ki ngdom
2017/12A
19.1%
3.3%
20.1%
8.0%
4.5%
26.6%
44.2%
6,287
1.0%
27.0%
17.5%
82.0%
63.5%
1.5%
2.9%
1.7%
76.3%
23.7%
63
24,655
21,900
539.9
VALUATION INDEX
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
in IDR bn
Net Income
Deprec & Provi s i on
Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l
CFO
Net Cha nges i n Loa n
CFI
Di vi dends Pa i d
Net Cha nges i n Depos i t
CFF
Net Changes in Cash
2016/12A
20.4%
3.2%
22.9%
8.5%
4.8%
25.5%
43.5%
4,931
0.8%
23.9%
16.7%
80.1%
62.7%
1.3%
3.0%
1.5%
77.0%
23.0%
63
24,655
15,500
382.2
%
54.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
DCF (IDR bn)
NOPAT
+Depr./Amor.
-Chg. i n Loa n
-Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p.
(Unl evered) FCFF
WACC
Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.)
Cos t of Equi ty (COE)
WACC (%)
RIM
Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%)
Res i dua l Income (IDR bn)
Equi ty Cha rge
EVA
Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn)
ROIC-WACC (%)
EVA (IDR bn)
2016/12A
2017/12A
24,274
6,449
(30,904)
(8,372)
(57,267)
25,427
4,012
(57,087)
(13,040)
(90,314)
27,312
2,245
(62,666)
(10,107)
(115,783)
31,707
743
(82,674)
(4,686)
(50,223)
7.8%
10.0%
9.9%
5.9%
10.4%
10.1%
7.4%
10.6%
10.1%
7.5%
10.7%
10.0%
13.0%
11,673
8,933
10.3%
11,566
11,744
8.7%
11,436
13,876
9.8%
14,291
15,583
94,302
15.8%
14,904
118,093
11.4%
13,490
135,203
10.1%
13,679
150,150
11.1%
16,651
DISCLAIMER
This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This
report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling
offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information here is obtained
from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees,
and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person
as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for
errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom.
All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia
PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia — Company Research | www.nhsec.co.id
Page 55