Exposure Asuransi Gempa Bumi

  MAIPARK, Statistik, 06/2016

  Dengan Hormat, Dengan mengucap Puji Syukur Kehadirat Tuhan Yang Maha Esa, buku “Laporan Statistik Asuransi Gempa Bumi Indonesia (LSAGBI) Desember 2015” telah selesai disusun. Penyusunan LSAGBI ini selaras dengan salah satu Visi MAIPARK yaitu menjadi “Center Of Excellence” dan sebagai upaya dalam memberikan pelayanan yang terbaik bagi Industri Asuransi Umum di Indonesia khususnya mengenai statistik serta pengetahuan risiko gempa bumi. Sebagai salah satu publikasi rutin, LSAGBI ini memuat hasil kajian risiko-risiko gempa bumi terkait data exposure, premi nasional, jumlah risiko dan perkembangan risiko gempa bumi. Di dalam laporan ini kami juga menyajikan ulasan aktuaria dan risiko exposure dari sudut pandang asuransi gempa bumi Dukungan dari seluruh perusahaan asuransi umum sangat berarti bagi kami dalam upaya pengembangan laporan statistik ini. Kami menyadari kebutuhan penyempurnaan buku ini sangat tinggi sehingga kritik maupun saran sangat kami harapkan.

  Dear Sir / Madam, Our gratitude to God Almighty, the “Indonesian Earthquake Insurance Statistic Report as at December 2015” is ready to publish. This report publication i s aligned with MAIPARK’s vision, which is to be a "Center of Excellence” and also to provide the best service for the General Insurance Industry in Indonesia, especially statistic and earthquake risks knowledge.

  As a regular publication, it contains earthquake risks study related to the national Exposure, premium, number of risks and development of the earthquake risks management. We also include actuarial and Exposure risks reviews from earthquake insurance point of view.

  Support from the General Insurance Industry will be meaningful to us in order to improve this Statistic Report. We realize the need for improvement of this report is very high so that critics and suggestions are appreciate.

  

Foreword

  Hal.

   Gross Premium and Exposure ………………2

  Statistic Overview of Indonesian Earthquake Insurance June 2016 Peta

  ……………………………...28 Indonesian Earthquake Exposure Distribution by Iktisar Statistik Asuransi Gempa Bumi Indonesia Juni 2016

  …………………………28 Distribusi Exposure Gempa Bumi Indonesia Indonesian Earthquake Exposure Distribution by Province, Underwriting Year 2016, as at 30 June 2016 ……………………………………………….27 Indonesian Earthquake Distribution M > 5 and Claim Incurred 2016

   Insurance Commentary: Earthquake that Change…………………..……………………22 Distribusi Exposure Gempa Bumi Indonesia per Provinsi, Underwriting Year 2016, per 30 Juni 2016 ……………………………………...27 Distribusi Gempa Bumi Indonesia M > 5 dan Claim Incurred 2016

  G.

   Actuary Commentary: The Effect of Deductibles on Claims Frequency and Claims Severity Distributions ……………………......13

   Incurred Claim …………………………………6 F.

  D. Number of Risk ………………………………..3 E.

   General ………………………………………...1 B. Market Structure ………………………………2 C.

  Page Kata pengantar…………………………...……i Daftar Isi ……………………………………….iii

  ……………………………....22 A.

  Ulasan Asuransi: Gempabumi yang mengubah..

  G.

  Ulasan Aktuaria: Pengaruh Deductible pada Distribusi Frekuensi Klaim dan Besar Klaim ……………………………………...13

   Incurred Claim ………………………….....6 F.

  D. Jumlah Risiko ……………………………..3 E.

  Umum ………………………………………1 B. Struktur Pasar …………………………….2 C. Premi Bruto dan Exposure ……………….2

  Content……..……………………………………….i Foreword…………………………………………..iii A.

  Map DAFTAR ISI CONTENTS

Tabel 3.1. Premi Bruto Per Cresta Zone …….39Tabel 5.5. Klaim Per OkupasiTable 4.4. Number of Risk By Province ......

  ….54

Tabel 5.1. Frekuensi Klaim Per Cresta Zone.55Tabel 5.2. Frekuensi Klaim Per Okupasi ……57Tabel 5.3. Frekuensi Klaim Per Provinsi ……59Tabel 5.4. Klaim Per Cresta Zone ……………60Table 5.1. Claim Frequency By Cresta Zone …..55Table 4.2. Number of Risk By Occupation ...... 50Table 5.2. Claim Frequency By Occupation ……57Table 5.3. Claim Frequency By Province ………59Table 5.4. Claim By Cresta Zone ……………….60Table 5.5. Claim By Occupation

  Premi Bruto Asuransi Gempa Bumi Indonesia Indonesian Earthquake Insurance Gross

premium

  Jumlah Risiko Asuransi Gempa Bumi Indonesia Indonesian Earthquake Insurance Number of Risk

Table 4.3. Number of Risk By Construction Class ………………………………………….................52Table 4.1. Number of Risk By Cresta Zone ..... 48Tabel 3.2. Premi Bruto Per Okupasi …………41Table 3.3. Gross Premium by Interest...............43Tabel 3.3. Premi Bruto Per Interest ……….....43

  Tabel

  3.4. Premi Bruto Per Provinsi …………………….........................…45

Tabel 3.5. Premi Bruto Per Kelas Konstruksi .................................................................... 46Table 3.1. Gross Premium by Cresta Zone ……39Table 3.2. Gross Premium by Occupation.........41Table 3.4. Gross Premium by Province ……..…45

  ...…54

Table 3.5. Gross Premium by Class of Construction

  ………………………………………46

Tabel 4.1. Jumlah Risiko Per Cresta Zone .. 48Tabel 4.2. Jumlah Risiko Per Okupasi ......... 50Table 4.3. Jumlah Risiko Per Kelas Konstruksi .................................................................... 52Table 4.4. Jumlah Risiko Per Provinsi...

  Klaim Asuransi Gempa Bumi Indonesia Indonesian Earthquake Insurance Claim

  Okupasi Agrikultural ………………………….71 Okupasi Komersial …………………………..72 Okupasi Industrial ……………………………73 Okupasi Residensial …………………………74

  Occupation Agricultural ………………………….71 Occupation Commercial ………………………...72 Occupation Industrial ……………………………73 Occupation Residential ………………………….74

  Okupasi Agrikultural ………………………….75 Okupasi Komersial …………………………..76 Okupasi Industrial ……………………………77 Okupasi Residensial …………………………78

  Occupation Agricultural ………………………….75 Occupation Commercial ………………………...76 Occupation Industrial ……………………………77 Occupation Residential ………………………….78

  Okupasi Agrikultural ………………………….79 Okupasi Komersial …………………………..80 Okupasi Industrial ……………………………81 Okupasi Residensial …………………………82

  Occupation Agricultural ………………………….79 Occupation Commercial ………………………...80 Occupation Industrial ……………………………81 Occupation Residential ………………………….82

  Profil Risiko dan Klaim Underwriting Year Per Okupasi 2016 Risk and Profile Claim Underwriting Year

  2016 By Occupation Profil Risiko dan Klaim Underwriting Year Per Okupasi 2015 Risk and Profile Claim Underwriting Year

  2015 By Occupation Profil Risiko dan Klaim Underwriting Year Per Okupasi 2014 Risk and Profile Claim Underwriting Year

  2014 By Occupation Profil Risiko dan Klaim Underwriting Year Per Okupasi 2013 Risk and Profile Claim Underwriting Year

  2013 By Occupation

  Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim per Cresta Zone, Underwriting Year 2016

  ……………………………………………91 Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim per Cresta Zone, Underwriting Year 2015

  ……………………………………………92 Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim per Cresta Zone, Underwriting Year 2014

  ……………………………………………93 Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim per Cresta Zone, Underwriting Year 2013

  ……………………………………………94 Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim per Cresta Zone, Underwriting Year 2012

  ……………………………………………95 Exposure, Gross Premium, Number of Risk & Claim by Cresta Zone, Underwriting Year 2016 ………………………………………………..91 Exposure, Gross Premium, Number of Risk & Claim by Cresta Zone, Underwriting Year 2015 ……………………………………………......92 Exposure, Gross Premium, Number of Risk & Claim by Cresta Zone, Underwriting Year 2014 …………………………………………….....93 Exposure, Gross Premium, Number of Risk & Claim by Cresta Zone, Underwriting Year 2013 ……………………………………………….94 Exposure, Gross Premium, Number of Risk & Claim by Cresta Zone, Underwriting Year 2012 ……………………………………………….95

  Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim per Okupasi, Underwriting Year 2016

  ……………………………………………96 Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim per Okupasi, Underwriting Year

  Exposure, Gross Premium, Number of Risk & Claim by Occupation, Underwriting Year 2016 ……………………………………………….96 Exposure, Gross Premium, Number of Risk & Claim by Occupation, Underwriting Year

  Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risko dan Klaim Asuransi Gempa Bumi Indonesia Per Cresta Zone

  Indonesian Earthquake Insurance Exposure, Gross Premium, Number of Risk and Claim By Cresta Zone

  Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risko dan Klaim Asuransi Gempa Bumi Indonesia Per Okupasi

  Indonesian Earthquake Insurance Exposure, Gross Premium, Number of Risk and Claim By Occupation

  Indonesian Earthquake Insurance Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risko dan Klaim Asuransi Gempa Bumi Exposure, Gross Premium, Number of

  Risk and Claim By Province Indonesia Per Provinsi

  Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim per Provinsi, Underwriting Year 2016 per Provinsi, Underwriting Year …….. 101 Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim 2016 ……………………………………………..101 per Provinsi, Underwriting Year 2015 Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim ……...102 Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim per Provinsi, Underwriting Year 2015 ………...102 per Provinsi, Underwriting Year 2014 Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim ……...103 Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim per Provinsi, Underwriting Year 2014 ………...103

  Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim per Provinsi, Underwriting Year per Provinsi, Underwriting Year

  2013 ……………………………………………104 2013 ……………………………………………..104

  Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim Exposure, Premi Bruto, Jumlah Risiko & Klaim per Provinsi, Underwriting Year per Provinsi, Underwriting Year

  2012 ……………………………………………105 2012 ……………………………………………..105

  Lampiran Attachment 1.

  1. Daftar Istilah…….………………………………106 Glossaries……………………………………..…..106

  2.Tarif asuransi Gempa Bumi Indonesia

  2. Indonesian Earthquake Insurance …….……….……….............................................108 Tariff…………………………………………………..108

  3. Zona Asu 3. ransi Gempa Bumi Indonesia………112

  Cresta Zone and Zone Table……………………112

  4. Cr

  

4. Indonesia

esta Zone Indonesia…………………………122 Cresta Zone ………………………….122

  5. Skala First Loss 5.

  

…………………………………129 First Loss Scale …..………………………………129

  6. Tabel Short Periode kurang dari 1

  6. Short Period Table Less Than One Year …..………………………..…………………..130

  Period…………………………………………………130

  Ikhtisar Statistik Asuransi Gempa Bumi Indonesia Juni 2016 Statistic Overview of Indonesia Earthquake Insurance June 2016

A. Umum

  

A. General

Berdasarkan data Badan Pusat Statistik, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia berdasarkan Produk Domestik Bruto (Harga Berlaku) triwulan

  II terhadap triwulan sebelumnya naik sebesar 4,02% (Rp2.942,00 triliun menjadi Rp.3.086,60 triliun).

  Based on Central of Statistics Bureau data, Indonesia economic growth by Gross Domestic Bruto (Current Price) second quarter compare to previous quarter increased 4.02% (IDR2,942.00 trillion to IDR.3,086.60 trillion)

  Produk Domestik Bruto atas dasar Harga Berlaku dan Harga Konstan 2010 - Kuartal II 2016 Gross Domestic Product by Current Price and Constant Price 2010 - second quarter 2016

  Triw ulan I-2016 / Quarter 1- 2016

  Triw ulan II-2016 / Quarter 2 - 2016

  Triw ulan I-2016 / Quarter 1 - 2016

  Triw ulan II-2016 / Quarter 2 - 2016

   Produk Dom estik Bruto (Gross Dom estic Product) 2,942.00 3,086.60 2,262.30 2,353.20 dalam triliun rupiah in trillion rupiah

  Harga Berlaku (Current price) Harga Konstan 2010/ Constant price 2010 Premi dan Klaim Bruto Kelas Bisnis Harta Benda - Kuartal II 2016 Gross Premium and Claim Property class of business - Second Quarter 2016

  Kelas Bisnis Premi Bruto Klaim Bruto dan Klaim Bruto turun -0,9% (Rp.3.431,57 miliar menjadi Rp.3.400,25 miliar ). and Gross Claim decrease -0.9% (IDR.

  3.431,57 billion to IDR.3,400.25 billion).

  B. Struktur Pasar

  B. Market Structure .

  C. Premi Bruto

  C. Gross Premium

Tabel 1.1 menyajikan rincian premi bruto berdasarkan jenis okupasi dari Underwriting

  Year 2012 hingga Underwriting Year 2016.

  Berdasarkan data tersebut dapat kita lihat bahwa untuk Okupasi Industrial dan Residensial pada Underwriting Year 2012-2014 mengalami trend kenaikan, namun dua okupasi lainnya menurun di Underwriting Year 2014. Penurunan pada Okupasi Agrikultural ini diakibatkan adanya

  The table 1.1 shows the details of gross premium based on occupation from Underwriting Year 2011 to Underwriting Year 2015. We could see based to Industrial and Residential Occupation data have increase trend, but other two occupation in Underwriting Year 2012-2014 have decrease in Underwriting Year 2014. The decrease in Agriculture

  Struktur Pasar Industri Asuransi Umum Indonesia Mark et Structure of the Indonesia General Insurance Industry

  Kategori Jumlah Perusahaan Asuransi Umum

  76 Perusahaan Reasuransi

  6 Asuransi Sosial

  2 Perusahaan Asuransi Wajib

  3 Sumber: buku Direktori 2015: Industri Keuangan Non Bank Source: buku Directory 2015: Non Bank Financial Institution

  D. Number of Risk Dari Tabel 1.2 dapat kita peroleh informasi bahwa jumlah risiko Okupasi Komersial terbesar ada di Underwriting Year 2014 yaitu 124.558. Sedangkan jumlah risiko Okupasi Komersial di Underwriting Year 2016 adalah 25.085 atau sebesar 20,14% atau seperlima dari jumlah risiko Okupasi Komersial di Underwriting Year 2014. Jika pola pensesian dan proses validasi bordero tidak berubah, maka jumlah risiko Okupasi Komersial di Underwriting Year 2016 masih akan meningkat.

  Jumlah Risiko pada Okupasi Agrikultural di From Table 1.2 we can find information that the biggest number of risks for Commercial Occupation was in Underwriting Year 2014 i.e 124,558. While number of risks for Commercial Occupation in Underwriting Year 2016 was 25,085 i.e. 20.14% or fifth of the number of risks Commercial Occupancy in Underwriting Year 2014. If the cession and bordereoux validation processing pattern unchanged, then number of risks for the Commercial Occupation in Underwriting Year 2016 still increased.

   Number of risks in Agriculture Occupation Dalam Jutaan Rupiah

  In Million Rupiah 2012 29,419.23 1.08% 658,376.86 24.19% 1,686,073.03 61.96% 347,532.51 12.77% 2,721,401.64 2013 35,250.82 0.78% 1,811,968.36 40.00% 2,207,809.14 48.74% 474,567.62 10.48% 4,529,595.94 2014 29,149.82 0.59% 1,118,227.46 22.45% 3,219,326.81 64.62% 615,373.36 12.35% 4,982,077.45 2015 29,683.73 0.57% 1,795,033.57 34.61% 2,816,715.07 54.31% 544,821.43 10.51% 5,186,253.80 2016 5,495.44 0.59% 242,709.63 26.23% 541,797.01 58.56% 135,233.24 14.62% 925,235.32

  T O T A L 128,999.03 5,626,315.88 10,471,721.06 2,117,528.17 18,344,564.15

Tabel 1.1 Premi Bruto dan Rasio Berdasarkan Okupasi per 30 Juni 2016Table 1.1 Gross Premium and Ratio By Occupation as at 30 June 2016

  Underwriting Year Okupasi / Occupation Total Agrikultural / Agricultural Komersial / Commercial Industri / Industrial Residensial / Residential

D. Jumlah Risiko

  45.52 173,827 100.00 189,524 100.00 235,275 100.00 226,069 100.00 54,171 100.00

  Industrial

  East Kalimantan, relatively significant decrease in number of risks cover was in Balikpapan city.

Tabel 1.2 Jumlah Risiko Berdasarkan Okupasi per 30 Juni 2016Table 1.2 Number of Risk By Occupation as at 30 June 2016

  Jumlah / Total % Jumlah / Total % Jumlah / Total % Jumlah / Total % Jumlah / Total % Agricultural / Agricultural A 420 0.24 535 0.28 753 0.32 390 0.17 189

  0.35 Komersial / Commercial C 94,595 54.42 100,683

53.12 124,558

52.94 123,845 54.78 25,085

  46.31 Industrial / Industrial I 17,199 9.89 18,433

9.73 18,903

8.03 17,165 7.59 4,236

  7.82 Residensial / Residential R 61,613 35.45 69,873

36.87 91,061

38.70 84,669 37.45 24,661

  Asahan. Sedangkan di Provinsi Kalimantan Timur, penurunan jumlah risiko penutupan yang relative signifikan ada di Kota Balikpapan.

  Occupation Jumlah / Total Okupasi U/Y 2012 U/Y 2013 U/Y 2014 U/Y 2015 U/Y 2016

  Number of Risk By Occupation As at 30 June 2016

  600.00 700.00 800.00

  Agricultural

  12,000.00 14,000.00 16,000.00 18,000.00 20,000.00

• 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00

• -

  2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00

UY 2012 UY 2013 UY 2014 UY 2015 UY 2016

UY 2012 UY 2013 UY 2014 UY 2015 UY 2016

  positif. Hal ini dibuktikan dengan apabila melihat dari premi bruto tertinggi berada di okupasi industrial sedangkan banyak risiko tertinggi berada pada okupasi komersial. positive. This is proved which the highest gross premium is on the industrial occupation while the highest total risk is under commercial occupation.

  Berdasarkan data okupasi, okupasi Komersial terdiri dari beberapa kode okupasi. Jumlah risiko terbesar berdasarkan kode okupasi di Underwriting Year 2012

   Based on occupation data, Commercial occupation consist of several occupation codes. The highest number of risks by occupation code in Underwriting Year 2012

• – 2016 adalah sebagai berikut:
• – 2016 are as follows:

  Okupasi Residensial terdiri dari beberapa kode okupasi. Jumlah risiko terbesar berdasarkan kode okupasi di Underwriting Year 2012

   Residential occupation consist of several occupation codes. The highest number of risks by occupation code in Underwriting Year 2012

  Jumlah Risiko Terbesar pada Okupasi Komersial Berdasarkan Kode Okupasi per 30 Juni 2016 The Highest Number Of Risk in Commercial Occupation as at 30 June 2016 by Occupation Code

  U/Y 2012 U/Y 2013 U/Y 2014 U/Y 2015 U/Y 2016 Total Total Total Total Total Shops 2934 33,421 33,483 6,768 Shops - Subject to Waranty A 29341 23,045 16,013 Private Warehouses and Storehouses - Subject to Warranty A

  29371 13,080 14,355 Veem and Bonded Warehouses - Subject to Warranty A

  293941

  2

  3 36,127 30,371 33,421 33,483 6,768

  Description & Occupation Code Total

• – 2016 are as follows:
• – 2016 adalah sebagai berikut:

E. Incurred Claim

  E. Incurred Claim Berdasarkan tabel 1.3, frekuensi klaim Based on table 1.3, the highest earthquake gempa bumi paling banyak terjadi di claim frequency occurred in Underwriting Year

  Underwriting Year 2013 yaitu sebanyak 62 2013 was 62 claims and it dominated by klaim dan didominasi okupasi Komersial Commercial occupation of 49 claims. It was sebanyak 49 klaim. Hal ini disebabkan oleh caused by Kelud Eruption, on 13 February 2014. kejadian Erupsi Gunung Kelud, 13 Februari This claim due to Eruption was mostly come from 2014. Klaim akibat Erupsi ini sebagian besar East Java Province especially City and District of berasal dari Provinsi Jawa Timur khususnya Kediri, Malang District and Surabaya city. Kota & Kab. Kediri, Kab. Malang dan Kota Surabaya.

Tabel 1.3 Frekwensi Klaim Berdasarkan Okupasi per 30 Juni 2016Table 1.3 Claim Frequency By Occupation as at 30 June 2016

  Okupasi Underwriting Year Occupation 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

  Agrikultural / Agricultural A Komersial / Commercial C

  16

  49

  10

  25

  1 Industrial / Industrial

  I

  5

  1

  2 Residensial / Residential R

  2

  8

  4

  11

  4 Jumlah / Total

  18

  62

  15

  38

  5 Berdasarkan Tabel 1.4 dan grafik terlihat Based on table 1.4 and graph below it can be bahwa untuk frekuensi klaim tinggi berada seen that the high frequency claims lies in

Tabel 1.4 Frekuensi Incurred Claim Underwriting Year 2016 Per 30 Juni 2016Table 1.4 Frequency Incurred Claim Underwriting Year 2016 as at 30 June 2016

• ) Dalam Rupiah *) In IDR

  Incurred Claim (BAND) *) Frekuensi Jumlah Incurred Claim Rata-rata Incurred Claim Incurred Claim Tertinggi Inccured Claim Terendah Claim Incurred (BAND)*) Frequency Total Claim Incurred Average Claim Incurred Highest Claim Incurred Lowest Claim Incurred

  50 - 1 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000

• 50 100

  2 175,000,000 87,500,000 100,000,000 75,000,000 100 200

• 2 360,000,000 180,000,000 200,000,000 160,000,000
• 200 300 300 500 - 500 - 750
• 750 1,000
• 1,000 1,500
• 1,500 2,000
• 2,000 2,500
• 2,500 3,000
• 3,000 4,000 4,000 - 5,000 5,000 7,500 -
• 7,500 10,000 10,000 20,000 -
• 20,000 50,000 50,000 100,000 -
• 100,000 500,000 500,000 up -

  Jumlah / Total 5 585,000,000 Dari tabel 1.5 tampak bahwa jumlah klaim From the table 1.5 below, it shows that the terbesar berada pada Underwriting Year 2013. largest claim is in the Underwriting Year 2013. The Klaim yang terbesar adalah pada okupasi largest claim is under Commercial occupation that Komersial, yaitu 99.63% dari total klaim di is 99.63% of the total claim in Underwriting Year Underwriting Year 2013 atau sebesar 2013 or Rp.271.3 billion.

  Rp.271,3 miliar.

Tabel 1.5 Jumlah Klaim Berdasarkan Okupasi per 30 Juni 2016

  Dalam Rupiah

Table 1.5 Claim Amount By Occupation as at 30 June 2016

  In IDR

Underwriting Year

  Okupasi / Occupation 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jumlah / Total % Jumlah / Total % Jumlah / Total % Jumlah / Total % Jumlah / Total % Agrikultural / Agricultural A

  0.00

  0.00

  0.00

  0.00

  0.00

  0.00

  0.00

  0.00

  0.00

  0.00 Komersial / Commercial C 1,636,685,520.49 92.33 271,246,520,180.70 99.63 624,550,950.05 67.66 5,959,405,013.50 38.45 200,000,000.00

  0.00 Industrial / Industrial

  I

  0.00 0.00 890,057,888.00 0.33 200,000,000.00 21.67 7,680,965,985.00

  49.56

  0.00

  0.00 Residensial / Residential R 135,984,751.35 7.67 104,486,089.00 0.04 98,536,193.51 10.67 1,857,064,680.00 11.98 385,000,000.00

  0.00 Jumlah / Total 1,772,670,271.84 100.00 272,241,064,157.70 100.00 923,087,143.56 100.00 15,497,435,678.50 100.00 585,000,000.00

  0.00 Tabel 1.6 menyajikan kejadian Gempa Table 1.6 shows earthquake events occurred Bumi Tahun 2016 dan Incurred Claim sampai in 2016 and the corresponding incurred claims as dengan 30 Juni 2016. at 30 June 2016.

Tabel 1.6 Kejadian Gempa Bumi Tahun 2016 dan Klaim per 30 Juni 2016Table 1.6 Earthquak e Event in 2016 and Claim as at 30 June 2016

  Dalam Rupiah In IDR

Tabel 1.7 menyajikan klaim untuk event Air Bangis, Mentawai, Garut dan Solok perjenis

  2 3 310,000,000.00

  0.00 10,000,000.00

  0.00

  0.00

  0.00

  0.00

  0.00

  0.00

  0.00

  0.00

  Occupation Residensial / Agrikultural / Komersial / Industrial / Kejadian Tanggal Kejadian Okupasi Frekuensi / Frequency Jumlah (Dalam Rupiah) / Amount (In IDR)

  2 1 75,000,000.00 Solok 2-Jun-16

  okupasi. Dapat dilihat bahwa okupasi yang terdampak pada beberapa event tersebut adalah Komersial dan Residensial. Hal ini dimungkinkan masih sedikit/belum adanya penutupan pada Okupasi Industrial dan Agrikultural sehingga dampak ke Okupasi tersebut belum ada atau mungkin laporan klaim untuk kedua Okupasi tersebut belum masuk.

  0.00 Garut 6-Apr-16

  1

  Air Bangis 2-Mar-16 1 10,000,000.00 Mentawai 5-Mar-16

  Event Date of Loss Agrikultural / Komersial / Industrial / Residensial / Agricultural Commercial Industrial Residential Agricultural Commercial Industrial Residential

Table 1.7 Earthquak e Event in 2016 and Claim per Occupation as at 30 June 2016Tabel 1.7 Kejadian Gempa Bumi Tahun 2016 dan Klaim per Okupasi per 30 Juni 2016

   The table below is a list of the largest claims as at 30 June 2016. Pariaman event was the biggest claim in the period of 5 years since the

Aceh event.

  Tabel di bawah ini adalah daftar klaim terbesar sampai dengan tanggal 30 Juni 2016. Event Pariaman merupakan event dengan besar klaim terbesar dalam kurun waktu 5 tahun pasca event Aceh.

  Garut and Solok event by occupation. It can be seen that Commercial and Residential Occupation affected with some event mentioned. This is probably a little/there is not yet cover in Industrial and Agricultural Occupation so the impact to the occupation does not exist or may the claim report was not received yet (Incurred But Not Reported).

Table 1.7 shows Air Bangis, Mentawai,

  106,170,253.50 1,200,000,000.00

  Daftar Klaim - Klaim Terbesar Posisi 30 Juni 2016 List of The Largest Claims as at 30 June 2016

  Dalam Rupiah In IDR

  No. Kejadian Tanggal Kejadian Kekuatan Gempa (S.R) Klaim Event Date of Loss Magnitude (S.R) Claim

  1 ACEH 26-12-2004 9 781,709,354,691.64

  2 YOGYA 27-05-2006 5.9 286,314,259,635.72

  3 PADANG 06-03-2007 5.8 22,445,090,553.18

  4 BENGKULU 12-09-2007 7.9 48,880,150,344.02

  5 PADANG 16-08-2009 6.9 42,782,942,555.00

  6 TASIKMALAYA 02-09-2009 7.3 24,305,724,396.26

  7 PARIAMAN 30-09-2009 7.6 1,083,648,012,851.01

  8 BIMA 09-11-2009 6.7 43,046,593,135.48

  9 MERAPI 25-10-2010 *) 27,499,741,856.40

  10 KELUD 13-02-2014 *) 322,962,107,319.64

• ) Penyeba b terka i t l etus a n gunung bera pi
• *) Caused by volcanic eruption

Tabel 1.8 menyajikan data jumlah polis dan Table 1.8 shows number of policies, and loss ratio per 30 Juni 2016. Tabel tersebut loss ratio as at 30 June 2016. The table show

  menunjukkan loss ratio Underwriting Year 2016 that the biggest loss ratio was at Underwriting masih lebih kecil dari 5 Underwriting Year. Year 2013 i.e. 6.01%. It was influenced by Sedangkan loss ratio tertinggi berada pada large amount of claim that resulting majority Underwriting Year 2013 sebesar 6.01%. Hal ini from Kelud Eruption in 2014. dipengaruhi oleh nilai klaim yang cukup tinggi yang mayoritas disebabkan dari Erupsi Gunung Kelud tahun 2014.

Tabel 1.8 Jumlah Polis dan Loss Ratio per 30 June 2016Tabel 1.9 menyajikan Premi dan Exposure per 30 Juni 2016. Dapat dilihat bahwa trend

  kenaikan pada premi dari Underwriting Year 2012-2015 akan terjadi juga pada sisi Exposure.

Table 1.9 shows Premium and Exposure as at

  30 June 2016. It can be seen that increase trend on premium will also be in exposure for Underwriting Year 2012-2015.

  Dalam Jutaan Rupiah In Million IDR

  Premi Exposure Premium Exposure

  2012 2,721,401.64 1,974,309,314.68 2013 4,529,595.94 2,758,269,954.05 2014 4,982,077.45 3,128,409,723.85 2015 5,186,253.80 3,548,422,344.44 2016 925,235.32 727,575,486.02

  T O T A L 18,344,564.15 12,136,986,823.04

Tabel 1.9 Premi dan Exposure per 30 Juni 2016

  Underwriting Year

Table 1.9 Premium and Exposure as at 30 June 2016

  Ulasan Aktuaria / Actuarial Commentary Pengaruh Deductible pada Distribusi Frekuensi Klaim dan Besar Klaim

  The Effect of Deductibles on Claims Frequency and Claims Severity Distributions Pemodelan klaim menggunakan model Modelling claims frequency and claims peluang dapat dilakukan terhadap frekuensi amount (severity) may be carried out using klaim dan besar (severitas) klaim. Ulasan probability models. This actuarial article aktuaria kali ini membahas pengaruh discusses the effect of deductibles on the deductible pada distribusi peluang peubah probability distributions of claims severity and acak severitas dan peubah acak frekuensi claims frequency random variables. Applying klaim. Deductible merupakan salah satu jenis a deductible is one way of coverage modifikasi cakupan polis. Modifikasi cakupan modification. Insurance companies often polis sering diterapkan perusahaan asuransi modify the policy coverage to reduce risks untuk mengurangi risiko dan/atau mengontrol and/or control the problem of moral hazard, bahaya moral, yaitu situasi dimana terjadi which refers to the situation in which the perubahan perilaku dari pemegang polis akibat insured behaves differently due to a given adanya perlindungan terhadap kerugian. protection of loss. With a deductible, a Dengan adanya deductible, pembayaran klaim payment in a loss event does not incur if the tidak terjadi apabila kerugian tidak melebihi loss does not exceed the deductible. nilai deductible.

  Sebelum membahas lebih lanjut mengenai Before further discussion on deductible, deductible, diperlukan definisi yang jelas the definitions of loss events and payment

  ≔peubah acak yang menyatakan nilai ≔random variable which defines the yang dibayarkan atas kejadian amount paid in a loss event when kerugian ketika tidak terdapat there is no coverage modification, modifikasi cakupan polis,

  ∶=random variable which defines the amount paid in a loss event when

  ∶=peubah acak yang menyatakan nilai yang dibayarkan atas kejadian there is coverage modification, kerugian ketika terdapat modifikasi ∶=random variable which defines the cakupan polis, amount paid in a payment event when there is coverage modification. ∶=peubah acak yang menyatakan nilai yang dibayarkan atas kejadian pembayaran ketika terdapat modifikasi cakupan polis. consecutively denote the dan secara berturut-turut disebut ,

  

, , and

ground-up loss, cost per loss, and cost per sebagai ground-up loss, cost per loss, dan cost payment. Thus, have non-negative per payment. memiliki support dan dan support, while has positive support. nonnegatif, sedangkan memiliki support positif.

  Misalkan suatu polis asuransi memiliki nilai Consider an insurance policy with a deductible sebesar deductible of

sedemikian sehingga such that the insurer will not pihak asuransi tidak akan membayar kepada pay the policyholder if the loss is less than or pemegang polis apabila kerugian equal to kurang ; and will pay − if the loss dan akan membayar . Assume that the imposition of Berdasarkan persamaan 1, seluruh nilai Based on equation 1, the entire value of losses kerugian kurang dari sama dengan which is less than or equal dipetakan are mapped to ke titik nol, sehingga peubah acak memiliki point zero. Therefore, the random variable massa peluang di titik nol sebesar has a probability mass at point zero of (2)

  ( = 0) = ( ≤ ) = ( ) Dengan demikian, berdistribusi The random variable has a mixed-type campuran; yaitu terdapat massa peluang di titik distribution; having a probability mass at point nol atau peluang di titik nol adalah zero of ( ) , dan ( ) and, for > , a density

function of

untuk > , fungsi densitas peluang adalah sebagai berikut:

  (3) ( − ) = ( ), > . Persamaan 3 juga dapat dituliskan dalam Equation 3 can also be written as bentuk berikut:

  ( ) = ( + ), > 0 (4) Fungsi distribusi dari peubah acak adalah The distribution function of the random variable is given by

  (5) = {0, < 0 ( + ) ≥ 0. dilaporkan ke perusahaan asuransi, sehingga insurance company and the information of the informasi kerugian (ground-up loss) tidak ada. ground up loss is not recorded. Based on the Berdasarkan proses terbentuknya, distribusi dari process, the distribution of the random peubah acak dan secara berturut turut juga variables and are called censored distribution and truncated distribution, disebut sebagai censored distribution dan resepectively. The random variable , truncated distribution. yang pada umumnya which is generally called an excess-loss disebut excess-loss variable merupakan peubah variable, is a conditional random variable acak bersyarat yang didefinisikan sebagai defined as

  = − | > = | > 0, (7) sehingga (8)

  = { , ≤ − , > .

  Dapat dilihat bahwa selalu berdistribusi Note that follows a continuous kontinu apabila distribution if berdistribusi kontinu. is continuous. Based on Berdasarkan persamaan 7, fungsi densitas, fungsi equation 7, the density function, the distribusi, dan mean dari peubah acak adalah distribution function, and the mean of random variable , respectively, are as follows:

  ( ) ( + ) (9)

  ( ) = = , > 0 ( > ) ( ) ( + )− ( )

  (10) ( ) = , > 0

  ( ) pembayaran klaim menjadi terbatas. Berbeda dari peubah acak cost per loss, fungsi distribusi dari peubah acak cost per payment tidak mengalami loncatan. that of the random variable cost per loss, the distribution function of the random variable cost per payment has no jump point.

  .

  Gambar 1. Grafik perbandingan fungsi distribusi cost per loss dan cost per payment untuk = 4000.