LAMPIRAN 1 Data statistik tingkat Pengangguran, Inflasi, Pertumbuhan ekonomi, Jumlah Penduduk, dan tingkat kemiskinan Kota Medan
LAMPIRAN 1
Data statistik tingkat Pengangguran, Inflasi, Pertumbuhan ekonomi, Jumlah Penduduk, dan tingkat kemiskinan Kota Medan
Tahun pengangguran Inflasi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Jumlah Penduduk Kemiskinan
5.09 4.40 1904273
5.97 7.77 2067288
12.28
10.05
7.65 7.16 2097610
13.11
9.58 2010
2.69 6.55 2121053
14.27
14.43 2009
10.63 6.89 2102105
13.08
7.17 2008
6.42 7.78 2083156
14.49
7.77 2007
15.01
6.38 2001
15.23
13.35
15.51 4.60 1926520
7.25 2002
13.28
9.49 4.50 1963882
7.12 2003
4.46 5.06 1993602
7.06 2006
7.25 2004
14.43
6.64 5.46 2006142
7.13 2005
12.46
2000
22.91 5.48 2036185
LAMPIRAN 2 Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Pengangguran (UN) pada Level-Intercept
Null Hypothesis: UN has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.778463 0.0215 Test critical values: 1% level -4.297073
5% level -3.212696 10% level -2.747676 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(UN) Method: Least Squares Date: 01/22/13 Time: 18:58 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
UN(-1) -1.175938 0.311221 -3.778463 0.0054 C 16.29683 4.302051 3.788154 0.0053
R-squared 0.640882 Mean dependent var 0.083000 Adjusted R-squared 0.595992 S.D. dependent var 1.524868 S.E. of regression 0.969231 Akaike info criterion 2.952229 Sum squared resid 7.515273 Schwarz criterion 3.012746 Log likelihood -12.76115 F-statistic 14.27678 Durbin-Watson stat 2.307051 Prob(F-statistic) 0.005400
LAMPIRAN 3 Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Pengangguran (UN) pada 2nd Difference-None
Null Hypothesis: D(UN,2) has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.102837 0.0001 Test critical values: 1% level -2.937216
5% level -2.006292 10% level -1.598068 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(UN,3) Method: Least Squares Date: 01/22/13 Time: 09:57 Sample (adjusted): 2004 2010 Included observations: 7 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(UN(-1),2) -2.852265 0.401567 -7.102837 0.0009 D(UN(-1),3) 0.896888 0.239155 3.750232 0.0133
R-squared 0.936632 Mean dependent var -0.624286 Adjusted R-squared 0.923958 S.D. dependent var 5.065247 S.E. of regression 1.396776 Akaike info criterion 3.741166 Sum squared resid 9.754912 Schwarz criterion 3.725712 Log likelihood -11.09408 Durbin-Watson stat 1.100802
LAMPIRAN 4 Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Inflasi (INFLASI) pada Level-Intercept
Null Hypothesis: INFLASI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.231799 0.0520 Test critical values: 1% level -4.420595
5% level -3.259808 10% level -2.771129 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(INFLASI) Method: Least Squares Date: 01/22/13 Time: 18:54 Sample (adjusted): 2002 2010 Included observations: 9 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
INFLASI(-1) -1.840637 0.569540 -3.231799 0.0179 D(INFLASI(-1)) 0.499927 0.358144 1.395882 0.2122
C 16.58651 5.772837 2.873200 0.0283 R-squared 0.718825 Mean dependent var -0.873333 Adjusted R-squared 0.625099 S.D. dependent var 9.464919 S.E. of regression 5.795287 Akaike info criterion 6.613169 Sum squared resid 201.5121 Schwarz criterion 6.678910 Log likelihood -26.75926 F-statistic 7.669495 Durbin-Watson stat 2.032693 Prob(F-statistic) 0.022230
LAMPIRAN 5 Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Inflasi (INFLASI) pada 2nd Difference-None
Null Hypothesis: D(INFLASI,2) has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.549683 0.0009 Test critical values: 1% level -2.937216
5% level -2.006292 10% level -1.598068 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(INFLASI,3) Method: Least Squares Date: 01/22/13 Time: 09:48 Sample (adjusted): 2004 2010 Included observations: 7 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(INFLASI(-1),2) -2.560831 0.562859 -4.549683 0.0061 D(INFLASI(-1),3) 0.641282 0.320000 2.004006 0.1014
R-squared 0.873745 Mean dependent var 1.701429 Adjusted R-squared 0.848494 S.D. dependent var 31.43728 S.E. of regression 12.23659 Akaike info criterion 8.081695 Sum squared resid 748.6708 Schwarz criterion 8.066241 Log likelihood -26.28593 Durbin-Watson stat 2.793380
LAMPIRAN 6 Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Jumlah Penduduk(JUMLHPEND) pada Level- Intercept
Null Hypothesis: JUMLHPEND has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.188213 0.2204 Test critical values: 1% level -4.297073
5% level -3.212696 10% level -2.747676 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20 observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 10 Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(JUMLHPEND) Method: Least Squares Date: 01/22/13 Time: 18:56 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
JUMLHPEND(-1) -0.139625 0.063808 -2.188213 0.0601 C 301435.5 128997.1 2.336761 0.0477
R-squared 0.374427 Mean dependent var 19333.70 Adjusted R-squared 0.296230 S.D. dependent var 16940.73 S.E. of regression 14211.75 Akaike info criterion 22.13838 Sum squared resid
1.62E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.19890 Log likelihood -108.6919 F-statistic 4.788275 Durbin-Watson stat 1.633501 Prob(F-statistic) 0.060088
LAMPIRAN 7 Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Jumlah Penduduk (JUMLHPEND) pada 2nd Difference- None
Null Hypothesis: D(JUMLHPEND,2) has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.346164 0.0277 Test critical values: 1% level -2.937216
5% level -2.346164 10% level -1.598068 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(JUMLHPEND,3) Method: Least Squares Date: 01/22/13 Time: 09:53 Sample (adjusted): 2004 2010 Included observations: 7 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(JUMLHPEND(-1),2) -2.430303 1.035862 -2.346164 0.0659 D(JUMLHPEND(-1),3) 0.874228 0.599746 1.457662 0.2047
R-squared 0.521481 Mean dependent var -4964.143 Adjusted R-squared 0.425778 S.D. dependent var 25163.37 S.E. of regression 19068.16 Akaike info criterion 22.78438 Sum squared resid
1.82E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.76893 Log likelihood -77.74534 Durbin-Watson stat 0.555754
LAMPIRAN 8 Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Jumlah Kemiskinan pada Level-Intercept
Null Hypothesis: KEMISKINAN has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.815975 0.7692 Test critical values: 1% level -4.297073
5% level -3.212696 10% level -2.747676 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20 observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 10 Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(KEMISKINAN) Method: Least Squares Date: 01/22/13 Time: 18:57 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
KEMISKINAN(-1) -0.329260 0.403518 -0.815975 0.4381 C 2.777515 2.973191 0.934187 0.3775
R-squared 0.076832 Mean dependent var 0.367000 Adjusted R-squared -0.038564 S.D. dependent var 1.042370 S.E. of regression 1.062278 Akaike info criterion 3.135565 Sum squared resid 9.027481 Schwarz criterion 3.196082 Log likelihood -13.67783 F-statistic 0.665815 Durbin-Watson stat 1.792499 Prob(F-statistic) 0.438133
LAMPIRAN 9 Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Jumlah Kemiskinan pada 2nd Difference-None
Null Hypothesis: D(KEMISKINAN,2) has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.227332 0.0003 Test critical values: 1% level -2.937216
5% level -2.006292 10% level -1.598068 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(KEMISKINAN,3) Method: Least Squares Date: 01/22/13 Time: 09:56 Sample (adjusted): 2004 2010 Included observations: 7 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(KEMISKINAN(-1),2) -3.338945 0.638747 -5.227332 0.0034 D(KEMISKINAN(-1),3) 1.510489 0.520603 2.901422 0.0337
R-squared 0.901406 Mean dependent var -0.391429 Adjusted R-squared 0.881687 S.D. dependent var 3.062599 S.E. of regression 1.053433 Akaike info criterion 3.176943 Sum squared resid 5.548610 Schwarz criterion 3.161489 Log likelihood -9.119300 Durbin-Watson stat 1.358791
LAMPIRAN 10 Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (PERTUM) pada Level- Intercept
Null Hypothesis: PERTUM has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.153831 0.6482 Test critical values: 1% level -4.297073
5% level -3.212696 10% level -2.747676 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20 observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 10 Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(PERTUM) Method: Least Squares Date: 01/22/13 Time: 18:57 Sample (adjusted): 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
PERTUM(-1) -0.241456 0.209265 -1.153831 0.2819 C 1.688278 1.251207 1.349319 0.2142
R-squared 0.142673 Mean dependent var 0.276000 Adjusted R-squared 0.035507 S.D. dependent var 0.835746 S.E. of regression 0.820774 Akaike info criterion 2.619720 Sum squared resid 5.389365 Schwarz criterion 2.680237 Log likelihood -11.09860 F-statistic 1.331325 Durbin-Watson stat 1.925537 Prob(F-statistic) 0.281873
LAMPIRAN 11
Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Pertumbuhan Ekonomi(PERTUMB) pada 2nd Difference-None
Null Hypothesis: D(PERTUM,2) has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.083465 0.0079 Test critical values: 1% level -2.937216
5% level -2.006292 10% level -1.598068 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(PERTUM,3) Method: Least Squares Date: 01/22/13 Time: 09:57 Sample (adjusted): 2004 2010 Included observations: 7 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(PERTUM(-1),2) -2.085054 0.676205 -3.083465 0.0274 D(PERTUM(-1),3) 0.541430 0.406645 1.331457 0.2405
R-squared 0.746185 Mean dependent var 0.041429 Adjusted R-squared 0.695422 S.D. dependent var 2.330976 S.E. of regression 1.286432 Akaike info criterion 3.576578 Sum squared resid 8.274530 Schwarz criterion 3.561123 Log likelihood -10.51802 Durbin-Watson stat 2.263511
LAMPIRAN 12
Hasil Uji Kointegrasi dengan Metode Johansen antara Inflasi Dengan pengangguran
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 10:59 Sample (adjusted): 2002 2010 Included observations: 9 after adjustments Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend Series: INFLASI UN Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1 Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace
0.05 No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.** None 0.815380 15.30583 15.49471 0.0534
At most 1 0.011127 0.100704 3.841466 0.7510 Trace test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level
- denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
- MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen
0.05 No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.** None * 0.815380 15.20512 14.26460 0.0354
At most 1 0.011127 0.100704 3.841466 0.7510 Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
- denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
- MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
INFLASI UN 0.160264 -0.981899 0.376907 2.294866
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha): D(INFLASI) -6.651238 -0.276447
D(UN) 1.186826 -0.003164
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -29.62885 Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
INFLASI UN 1.000000 -6.126746
(2.39218) Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(INFLASI) -1.065956 (0.29451)
D(UN) 0.190206 (0.04053)
LAMPIRAN 13
Hasil Uji Kointegrasi dengan Metode Johansen antara Jumlah Penduduk Dengan pengangguran
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 11:01 Sample (adjusted): 2002 2010 Included observations: 9 after adjustments Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend Series: JUMLHPEND UN Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1 Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace
0.05 No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.** None * 0.897578 27.95126 15.49471 0.0004
At most 1 * 0.562659 7.443370 3.841466 0.0064 Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
- denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
- MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen
0.05 No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.** None * 0.897578 20.50789 14.26460 0.0045
At most 1 * 0.562659 7.443370 3.841466 0.0064 Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
- denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
- MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
JUMLHPEND UN
- 1.04E-05 1.774187
1.43E-05 0.794246 Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(JUMLHPEND ) 6215.248 -9945.536
D(UN) -0.513919 -0.148766
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -96.71027 Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
JUMLHPEND UN 1.000000 -170130.8
(27548.5) Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(JUMLHPEND ) -0.064815
(0.06261) D(UN)
5.36E-06 (1.2E-06)
LAMPIRAN 14
Hasil Uji Kointegrasi dengan Metode Johansen antara Kemiskinan Dengan pengangguran
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 11:02 Sample (adjusted): 2002 2010 Included observations: 9 after adjustments Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend Series: KEMISKINAN UN Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1 Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace
0.05 No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.** None * 0.845508 17.50519 15.49471 0.0246
At most 1 0.074490 0.696694 3.841466 0.4039 Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
- denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
- MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen
0.05 No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.** None * 0.845508 16.80850 14.26460 0.0194
At most 1 0.074490 0.696694 3.841466 0.4039 Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
- denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
- MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
KEMISKINAN UN
- 2.163365 2.285567
5.459825 -1.155267 Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(KEMISKINA N) -0.185665 -0.224313
D(UN) -1.202699 -0.051595
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -17.46203 Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
KEMISKINAN UN 1.000000 -1.056487
(0.15016) Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(KEMISKINA N) 0.401662
(0.79885) D(UN) 2.601877
(0.52995)