Menentukan Model kemiskinan Menggunakan Regresi Spasial (Studi Kasus Kabupaten Simalungun)
50
LAMPIRAN A : Model SAR setiap Kecamatan di Kabupaten Simalungun
��1 =
95,74642 + 0,65�2 + 0,65�3 + 0,65�4 + 0,275324�2 −
0,2345248�3 + 8,481299�4
y� 2 =
95,74642 + 0,65y1 + 0,65y3 + 0,65y4 + 0,275324X2 −
0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
y� 3 = 95,74642 + 0,040y1 + 0,040y2 + 0,040y5 + 0,040y15 + 0,040y16 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
y� 4 = 95,74642 + 0,099y1 + 0,099y2 + 0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 +
8,481299X4
y� 5 =
95,74642 + 0,049y3 + 0,049y6 + 0,049y13 + 0,049y15 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
y� 6 = 95,74642 + 0,040y5 + 0,040y7 + 0,040y12 + 0,040y13 + 0,040y21 +
y� 7 =
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
y� 8 =
95,74642 + 0,65y6 + 0,65y8 + 0,65y12 + 0,275324X2 −
0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,049y7 + 0,049y9 + 0,049y11 + 0,049y12 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
��9 = 95,74642 + 0,028�8 + 0,028�10 + 0,028�11 + 0,028�12 + 0,028�21 +
0,028�24 + 0,028�25 + 0,275324�2 − 0,2345248�3 +
8,481299�4
y� 10 = 95,74642 + 0,099y9 + 0,099y24 + 0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 +
8,481299X4
y� 11 =
95,74642 + 0,65y8 + 0,65y9 + 0,65y12 + 0,275324X2 −
0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
Universitas Sumatera Utara
51
��12 = 95,74642 + 0,033�6 + 0,033�7 + 0,033�8 + 0,033�9 + 0,033�11 +
0,033�21 + 0,275324�2 − 0,2345248�3 + 8,481299�4
y� 13 = 95,74642 + 0,040y5 + 0,040y6 + 0,040y14 + 0,040y15 + 0,040y21 +
y� 14 =
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,049y13 + 0,049y15 + 0,049y19 + 0,049y21 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
��15 = 95,74642 + 0,025�3 + 0,025�5 + 0,025�13 + 0,025�14 + 0,025�16 +
0,025�17 + 0,025�18 + 0,025�19 + 0,275324�2 − 0,2345248�3 +
8,481299�4
y� 16 =
y� 17 =
95,74642 + 0,049y2 + 0,049y3 + 0,049y15 + 0,049y17 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,65y15 + 0,65y16 + 0,65y18 + 0,275324X2 −
0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
y� 18 = 95,74642 + 0,099y15 + 0,099y17 + 0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 +
8,481299X4
y� 19 =
y� 20 =
95,74642 + 0,049y14 + 0,049y15 + 0,049y20 + 0,049y26 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,65y19 + 0,65y26 + 0,65y27 + 0,275324X2 −
0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
��21 = 95,74642 + 0,025�6 + 0,025�9 + 0,025�12 + 0,025�13 + 0,025�14 +
0,025�22 + 0,025�23 + 0,025�25 + 0,275324�2 − 0,2345248�3 +
8,481299�4
y� 22 = 95,74642 + 0,040y21 + 0,040y23 + 0,040y25 + 0,040y27 + 0,040y29 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
Universitas Sumatera Utara
52
y� 23 =
y� 24 =
95,74642 + 0,049y21 + 0,049y22 + 0,049y26 + 0,049y27 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,049y9 + 0,049y10 + 0,049y25 + 0,049y30 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
��25 = 95,74642 + 0,028�9 + 0,028�21 + 0,028�22 + 0,028�24 + 0,028�28 +
0,028�29 + 0,028�30 + 0,275324�2 − 0,2345248�3 +
8,481299�4
y� 26 =
95,74642 + 0,049y19 + 0,049y20 + 0,049y23 + 0,049y27 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
y� 27 = 95,74642 + 0,040y20 + 0,040y22 + 0,040y23 + 0,040y26 + 0,040y29 +
y� 28 =
y� 29 =
y� 30 =
y� 31 =
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,65y25 + 0,65y29 + 0,65y30 + 0,275324X2 −
0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,049y22 + 0,049y25 + 0,049y27 + 0,049y28 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,049y24 + 0,049y25 + 0,049y28 + 0,049y31 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,1983011y30 + 0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 +
8,481299X4
Universitas Sumatera Utara
53
LAMPIRAN B : Hasil Output dari Program OpenGeoda
Regression
SUMMARY OF OUTPUT: ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION
Data set
: a
Dependent Variabel :
Y Number of Observations: 31
Mean dependent var :
1670.71 Number of Variabels : 5
S.D. dependent var :
729.938 Degrees of Freedom : 26
R-squared
: 0.664438
F-statistic
:
12.8705
Adjusted R-squared
: 0.612813
Prob(F-statistic)
:
6.59203e-006
Sum squared residual
:5.54252e+006 Log likelihood
: -231.444
Sigma-square
:
213174
Akaike info criterion
:
472.887
S.E. of regression
:
461.707
Schwarz criterion
:
480.057
Sigma-square ML
:
178791
S.E of regression ML
:
422.837
----------------------------------------------------------------------Variabel
Coefficient
Std.Error
t-Statistic
Probability
----------------------------------------------------------------------CONSTANT
402.2695
282.578
1.42357
0.1664614
X1
-0.4830007
3.299377
-0.1463915
0.8847424
X2
0.2746931
0.04578278
5.999922
0.0000025
X3
-0.2275168
0.1099759
-2.068788
0.0486444
X4
8.342253
2.775715
3.005442
0.0058082
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Universitas Sumatera Utara
54
REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS
MULTICOLLINEARITY CONDITION NUMBER 8.729393
TEST ON NORMALITY OF ERRORS
TEST
DF
Jarque-Bera
2
VALUE
PROB
0.487229
0.7837897
DIAGNOSTICS FOR HETEROSKEDASTICITY
RANDOM COEFFICIENTS
TEST
DF
Breusch-Pagan test
VALUE
PROB
4
5.167933
0.2704964
Koenker-Bassett test 4
6.644032
0.1559384
SPECIFICATION ROBUST TEST
TEST
DF
White
14
VALUE
18.90813
PROB
0.1684894
========================= END OF REPORT ==============================
Universitas Sumatera Utara
55
DIAGNOSTICS FOR SPATIAL DEPENDENCE
FOR WEIGHT MATRIX : a1.gal
(row-standardized weights)
TEST
MI/DF
VALUE
PROB
Moran's I (error)
-0.170121
-1.0178401
0.03087540
Lagrange Multiplier (lag)
1
0.9461498
0.03307013
Robust LM (lag)
1
7.0045237
0.0081304
Lagrange Multiplier (error)
1
1.6966972
0.1927205
Robust LM (error)
1
7.7550711
0.0053562
Lagrange Multiplier (SARMA)
2
8.7012209
0.0528989
========================= END OF REPORT ==============================
Universitas Sumatera Utara
56
Regression
SUMMARY OF OUTPUT: SPATIAL LAG MODEL - MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION
Data set
:a
Spatial Weight
: a1.gal
Dependent Variabel
:
Y Number of Observations
: 31
Mean dependent var
:
1670.71 Number of Variabels
: 6
S.D. dependent var
:
729.938 Degrees of Freedom
: 25
Lag coeff. (Rho)
: 0.198301
R-squared
: 0.679762 Log likelihood
: -230.873
Sq. Correlation
:-
:
473.746
Sigma-square
:
170626 Schwarz criterion
:
482.35
S.E of regression
:
413.069
Akaike info criterion
----------------------------------------------------------------------Variabel
Coefficient
Std.Error
z-value
Probability
----------------------------------------------------------------------W_Y
0.1983011
0.1606092
1.234681
0.2169495
CONSTANT
95.74642
335.7988
0.2851303
0.7755444
X1
-1.10145
3.145824
-0.3501308
0.7262407
X2
0.275324
0.04096571
6.72084
0.0000000
X3
-0.2345248
0.09899515
-2.369053
0.0178337
X4
8.481299
2.487713
3.409275
0.0006515
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Universitas Sumatera Utara
57
REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS
DIAGNOSTICS FOR HETEROSKEDASTICITY
RANDOM COEFFICIENTS
TEST
DF
VALUE
PROB
Breusch-Pagan test
4
6.591141
0.1591376
DIAGNOSTICS FOR SPATIAL DEPENDENCE
SPATIAL LAG DEPENDENCE FOR WEIGHT MATRIX : a1.gal
TEST
DF
Likelihood Ratio Test
1
VALUE
1.141547
PROB
0.2853256
========================= END OF REPORT ==============================
Universitas Sumatera Utara
58
Regression
SUMMARY OF OUTPUT: SPATIAL ERROR MODEL - MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION
Data set
:a
Spatial Weight
: a1.gal
Dependent Variabel
:
Y Number of Observations
Mean dependent var
: 1670.709677 Number of Variabels
: 5
S.D. dependent var
: 729.938362 Degrees of Freedom
: 26
Lag coeff. (Lambda)
: -0.576814
R-squared
: 0.717682 R-squared (BUSE)
:-
Sq. Correlation
:-
: -229.947619
Sigma-square
:
150422 Akaike info criterion
:
469.895
S.E of regression
:
387.843 Schwarz criterion
:
477.065
Log likelihood
: 31
----------------------------------------------------------------------Variabel
Coefficient
Std.Error
z-value
Probability
----------------------------------------------------------------------CONSTANT
358.3873
216.9318
1.652073
0.0985196
X1
-3.849188
2.632619
-1.462114
0.1437102
X2
0.3210104
0.03911911
8.205973
0.0000000
X3
-0.2874362
0.08310074
-3.458888
0.0005425
X4
9.871238
2.59396
3.80547
0.0001416
-0.5768144
0.2473413
-2.332059
0.0196976
LAMBDA
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Universitas Sumatera Utara
59
REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS
DIAGNOSTICS FOR HETEROSKEDASTICITY
RANDOM COEFFICIENTS
TEST
DF
VALUE
PROB
Breusch-Pagan test
4
2.300637
0.6806531
DIAGNOSTICS FOR SPATIAL DEPENDENCE
SPATIAL ERROR DEPENDENCE FOR WEIGHT MATRIX : a1.gal
TEST
DF
Likelihood Ratio Test
1
VALUE
2.992074
PROB
0.0836730
========================= END OF REPORT ==============================
Universitas Sumatera Utara
LAMPIRAN A : Model SAR setiap Kecamatan di Kabupaten Simalungun
��1 =
95,74642 + 0,65�2 + 0,65�3 + 0,65�4 + 0,275324�2 −
0,2345248�3 + 8,481299�4
y� 2 =
95,74642 + 0,65y1 + 0,65y3 + 0,65y4 + 0,275324X2 −
0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
y� 3 = 95,74642 + 0,040y1 + 0,040y2 + 0,040y5 + 0,040y15 + 0,040y16 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
y� 4 = 95,74642 + 0,099y1 + 0,099y2 + 0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 +
8,481299X4
y� 5 =
95,74642 + 0,049y3 + 0,049y6 + 0,049y13 + 0,049y15 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
y� 6 = 95,74642 + 0,040y5 + 0,040y7 + 0,040y12 + 0,040y13 + 0,040y21 +
y� 7 =
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
y� 8 =
95,74642 + 0,65y6 + 0,65y8 + 0,65y12 + 0,275324X2 −
0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,049y7 + 0,049y9 + 0,049y11 + 0,049y12 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
��9 = 95,74642 + 0,028�8 + 0,028�10 + 0,028�11 + 0,028�12 + 0,028�21 +
0,028�24 + 0,028�25 + 0,275324�2 − 0,2345248�3 +
8,481299�4
y� 10 = 95,74642 + 0,099y9 + 0,099y24 + 0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 +
8,481299X4
y� 11 =
95,74642 + 0,65y8 + 0,65y9 + 0,65y12 + 0,275324X2 −
0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
Universitas Sumatera Utara
51
��12 = 95,74642 + 0,033�6 + 0,033�7 + 0,033�8 + 0,033�9 + 0,033�11 +
0,033�21 + 0,275324�2 − 0,2345248�3 + 8,481299�4
y� 13 = 95,74642 + 0,040y5 + 0,040y6 + 0,040y14 + 0,040y15 + 0,040y21 +
y� 14 =
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,049y13 + 0,049y15 + 0,049y19 + 0,049y21 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
��15 = 95,74642 + 0,025�3 + 0,025�5 + 0,025�13 + 0,025�14 + 0,025�16 +
0,025�17 + 0,025�18 + 0,025�19 + 0,275324�2 − 0,2345248�3 +
8,481299�4
y� 16 =
y� 17 =
95,74642 + 0,049y2 + 0,049y3 + 0,049y15 + 0,049y17 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,65y15 + 0,65y16 + 0,65y18 + 0,275324X2 −
0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
y� 18 = 95,74642 + 0,099y15 + 0,099y17 + 0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 +
8,481299X4
y� 19 =
y� 20 =
95,74642 + 0,049y14 + 0,049y15 + 0,049y20 + 0,049y26 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,65y19 + 0,65y26 + 0,65y27 + 0,275324X2 −
0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
��21 = 95,74642 + 0,025�6 + 0,025�9 + 0,025�12 + 0,025�13 + 0,025�14 +
0,025�22 + 0,025�23 + 0,025�25 + 0,275324�2 − 0,2345248�3 +
8,481299�4
y� 22 = 95,74642 + 0,040y21 + 0,040y23 + 0,040y25 + 0,040y27 + 0,040y29 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
Universitas Sumatera Utara
52
y� 23 =
y� 24 =
95,74642 + 0,049y21 + 0,049y22 + 0,049y26 + 0,049y27 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,049y9 + 0,049y10 + 0,049y25 + 0,049y30 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
��25 = 95,74642 + 0,028�9 + 0,028�21 + 0,028�22 + 0,028�24 + 0,028�28 +
0,028�29 + 0,028�30 + 0,275324�2 − 0,2345248�3 +
8,481299�4
y� 26 =
95,74642 + 0,049y19 + 0,049y20 + 0,049y23 + 0,049y27 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
y� 27 = 95,74642 + 0,040y20 + 0,040y22 + 0,040y23 + 0,040y26 + 0,040y29 +
y� 28 =
y� 29 =
y� 30 =
y� 31 =
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,65y25 + 0,65y29 + 0,65y30 + 0,275324X2 −
0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,049y22 + 0,049y25 + 0,049y27 + 0,049y28 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,049y24 + 0,049y25 + 0,049y28 + 0,049y31 +
0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 + 8,481299X4
95,74642 + 0,1983011y30 + 0,275324X2 − 0,2345248X3 +
8,481299X4
Universitas Sumatera Utara
53
LAMPIRAN B : Hasil Output dari Program OpenGeoda
Regression
SUMMARY OF OUTPUT: ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION
Data set
: a
Dependent Variabel :
Y Number of Observations: 31
Mean dependent var :
1670.71 Number of Variabels : 5
S.D. dependent var :
729.938 Degrees of Freedom : 26
R-squared
: 0.664438
F-statistic
:
12.8705
Adjusted R-squared
: 0.612813
Prob(F-statistic)
:
6.59203e-006
Sum squared residual
:5.54252e+006 Log likelihood
: -231.444
Sigma-square
:
213174
Akaike info criterion
:
472.887
S.E. of regression
:
461.707
Schwarz criterion
:
480.057
Sigma-square ML
:
178791
S.E of regression ML
:
422.837
----------------------------------------------------------------------Variabel
Coefficient
Std.Error
t-Statistic
Probability
----------------------------------------------------------------------CONSTANT
402.2695
282.578
1.42357
0.1664614
X1
-0.4830007
3.299377
-0.1463915
0.8847424
X2
0.2746931
0.04578278
5.999922
0.0000025
X3
-0.2275168
0.1099759
-2.068788
0.0486444
X4
8.342253
2.775715
3.005442
0.0058082
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Universitas Sumatera Utara
54
REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS
MULTICOLLINEARITY CONDITION NUMBER 8.729393
TEST ON NORMALITY OF ERRORS
TEST
DF
Jarque-Bera
2
VALUE
PROB
0.487229
0.7837897
DIAGNOSTICS FOR HETEROSKEDASTICITY
RANDOM COEFFICIENTS
TEST
DF
Breusch-Pagan test
VALUE
PROB
4
5.167933
0.2704964
Koenker-Bassett test 4
6.644032
0.1559384
SPECIFICATION ROBUST TEST
TEST
DF
White
14
VALUE
18.90813
PROB
0.1684894
========================= END OF REPORT ==============================
Universitas Sumatera Utara
55
DIAGNOSTICS FOR SPATIAL DEPENDENCE
FOR WEIGHT MATRIX : a1.gal
(row-standardized weights)
TEST
MI/DF
VALUE
PROB
Moran's I (error)
-0.170121
-1.0178401
0.03087540
Lagrange Multiplier (lag)
1
0.9461498
0.03307013
Robust LM (lag)
1
7.0045237
0.0081304
Lagrange Multiplier (error)
1
1.6966972
0.1927205
Robust LM (error)
1
7.7550711
0.0053562
Lagrange Multiplier (SARMA)
2
8.7012209
0.0528989
========================= END OF REPORT ==============================
Universitas Sumatera Utara
56
Regression
SUMMARY OF OUTPUT: SPATIAL LAG MODEL - MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION
Data set
:a
Spatial Weight
: a1.gal
Dependent Variabel
:
Y Number of Observations
: 31
Mean dependent var
:
1670.71 Number of Variabels
: 6
S.D. dependent var
:
729.938 Degrees of Freedom
: 25
Lag coeff. (Rho)
: 0.198301
R-squared
: 0.679762 Log likelihood
: -230.873
Sq. Correlation
:-
:
473.746
Sigma-square
:
170626 Schwarz criterion
:
482.35
S.E of regression
:
413.069
Akaike info criterion
----------------------------------------------------------------------Variabel
Coefficient
Std.Error
z-value
Probability
----------------------------------------------------------------------W_Y
0.1983011
0.1606092
1.234681
0.2169495
CONSTANT
95.74642
335.7988
0.2851303
0.7755444
X1
-1.10145
3.145824
-0.3501308
0.7262407
X2
0.275324
0.04096571
6.72084
0.0000000
X3
-0.2345248
0.09899515
-2.369053
0.0178337
X4
8.481299
2.487713
3.409275
0.0006515
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Universitas Sumatera Utara
57
REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS
DIAGNOSTICS FOR HETEROSKEDASTICITY
RANDOM COEFFICIENTS
TEST
DF
VALUE
PROB
Breusch-Pagan test
4
6.591141
0.1591376
DIAGNOSTICS FOR SPATIAL DEPENDENCE
SPATIAL LAG DEPENDENCE FOR WEIGHT MATRIX : a1.gal
TEST
DF
Likelihood Ratio Test
1
VALUE
1.141547
PROB
0.2853256
========================= END OF REPORT ==============================
Universitas Sumatera Utara
58
Regression
SUMMARY OF OUTPUT: SPATIAL ERROR MODEL - MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION
Data set
:a
Spatial Weight
: a1.gal
Dependent Variabel
:
Y Number of Observations
Mean dependent var
: 1670.709677 Number of Variabels
: 5
S.D. dependent var
: 729.938362 Degrees of Freedom
: 26
Lag coeff. (Lambda)
: -0.576814
R-squared
: 0.717682 R-squared (BUSE)
:-
Sq. Correlation
:-
: -229.947619
Sigma-square
:
150422 Akaike info criterion
:
469.895
S.E of regression
:
387.843 Schwarz criterion
:
477.065
Log likelihood
: 31
----------------------------------------------------------------------Variabel
Coefficient
Std.Error
z-value
Probability
----------------------------------------------------------------------CONSTANT
358.3873
216.9318
1.652073
0.0985196
X1
-3.849188
2.632619
-1.462114
0.1437102
X2
0.3210104
0.03911911
8.205973
0.0000000
X3
-0.2874362
0.08310074
-3.458888
0.0005425
X4
9.871238
2.59396
3.80547
0.0001416
-0.5768144
0.2473413
-2.332059
0.0196976
LAMBDA
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Universitas Sumatera Utara
59
REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS
DIAGNOSTICS FOR HETEROSKEDASTICITY
RANDOM COEFFICIENTS
TEST
DF
VALUE
PROB
Breusch-Pagan test
4
2.300637
0.6806531
DIAGNOSTICS FOR SPATIAL DEPENDENCE
SPATIAL ERROR DEPENDENCE FOR WEIGHT MATRIX : a1.gal
TEST
DF
Likelihood Ratio Test
1
VALUE
2.992074
PROB
0.0836730
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Universitas Sumatera Utara