PROSPECT OF NATIONAL LEADERSHIP PUBLIC EVALUATION ON THE PERFORMANCE OF PRESIDENT AND VICA PRESIDENT

PROSPECT OF NATIONAL LEADERSHIP

PUBLIC EVALUATION ON THE PERFORMANCE OF

PRESIDENT AND VICA PRESIDENT

Jakarta, 11 Oktober 2006

Survei Nasional Nov 2004- Oktober 2006

www.lsi.or.id

LEMBAGA SURVEI INDONESIA (LSI)

INTRODUCTION

People had given their voice democratically to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and M Jusuf Kalla (JK) to govern this country since 2004. Within the period 2004-2006, the people has the right to evaluate, and their aspiration were • being heard. The people participates in determining the fate of this country, therefore assessing opinion of • the people regarding national leadership and its performance is of importance in order to check so that the president and his vice will use their power according to the aspiration of the public at large. If there is a significant deviation from the public interest, there will be feeling of • disappointment and distrust against the government. These feeling become a trigger for the people to seek alternatives to solve problem out of formal mechanisms, including the use of violence. In turn, it will weaken democracy. Public opinion survey which is conducted with tight methodology is one systematic effort to • disclose national level public opinion as a means of communication between the people and political elites in Jakarta. Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) conducts the survey in periodical basis for aforementioned •

goals.

METODOLOGY ● Population of this survey are Indonesian citizens with voting right, those whor are 17 years or more, or married.

● The number of sample is 1,239 respondents, with margin of error +/- 2,8% at

confidential level 95 percent. Multistage Random Sampling is used to draw sample.

● Elected respondents is interviewed face to face by skilled interviewer. One

interviewer works only in one village and has to interview 10 respondents only.

● Quality control of interview result is done in a random basis with size of 20%

out of total sample by supervisor by re-visiting elected respondents (spot check). No significant errors was found quality control.

Methodology Survey

Population of villages/kelurahan at National Level

Prov.k

Village/kelurahan at

Prov.1

Provincial level are randomly selected

… …

proportionally

Vl 1 … Vl m Vl 1 … Vl n RT1 RT2 RT3 …. RT5

Every village/kelurahan is chosen 5 RT/neigborhood randomly In every RT/Lingkungan

HH1 HH2

Randomly selected 2 HH In every selected HH randomly select one

Male Female

person with voting right male/female

DEMOGRAFI Category Sample BPS Category Sample BPS Gender Education Group

Male

50.2 50.0 <= Primary 48.4*

60.0 Female

49.8

50.0 Secondary

19.9

19.0 Urban-Rural High School

23.7

18.0 Rural

60.2

59.0 University

8.0

4.0 Urban

39.8

41.0 Religion

Age Group Islam

88.2

87.0 < = 19 year 3.0*

15.1 Christianity

8.7

10.0 20-29 year

19.8

27.1 Hinduism

2.7

2.0 30-39 year

31.9

22.4 Others

0.5

1 40-49 year

22.6

15.8 Ethnicity >= 50 year

22.6

19.6 Jawa

39.4

41.6 Income Sunda

13.2

15.4 < 400 thousand

39.2

42.0 Melayu

5.7

3.4 400-999 thousand

39.1

38.0 Madura

2.9

3.4 >= 1 million

21.7

20.0 Bugis

2.4

2.5 Betawi

2.5

2.5 Minang

3.6

2.7 Others

30.4

28.5

DEMOGRAFI Category Sample BPS Category Sample BPS

15.2 West Sulawesi

1.1 Riau Archipelago

0.8

0.6 South Sulawesi

3.2

3.5 Jakarta

4.0

3.5 Southeast Sulawes

0.8

0.9 West Java

14.5

17.4 GORONTALO

0.8

0.4 Central Java

12.9

0.8

0.5 Central Sulawesi

0.4 BANTEN

0.3 PROPINSI

0.8

0.9

0.8

4.1 Papua

4.0

0.8

0.5 Yogyakarta

16.7 North Maluku

13.7

0.6 East Java

0.8

1.6 MALUKU

1.6

0.8

Aceh

2.4

1.9 BALI

2.4

1.5 North Sumatra

4.8

5.3 West Nusa Tengga

2.4

2.0 West Sumatra

3.2

2.1 East Nusa Tenggara

2.4

2.0 RIAU

2.4

2.2 West Kalimantan

1.9 JAMBI

1.0 BABEL

0.8

1.6

3.4 North Sulawesi

3.2

1.4 LAMPUNG

1.6

0.8 East Kalimantan

1.5 BENGKULU

0.8

2.4

3.2 South Kalimantan

3.2

0.9 South Sumatra

1.5

1.3 Central Kalimantan

PROPINSI

FINDING

SATISFIED WITH THE PERFORMANCE OF PRESIDENT and VICE

PRESIDENT (%)

67 SBY

63 MJK

45 Nov' 04 Jan' 05 Apr' 05 Jul' 05 Sept' 05 Des' 05 Jan' 06 Mar' 06 Okt' 06

SATISFIED WITH THE PERFORMANCE OF PRESIDENT and VICE

PRESIDENT(%)

70 SBY

65 MJK

45 Nov' 04 Sept' 05 Okt' 06

SATISFACTION TO THE PERFORMANCE OF SBY-MJK

SBY-MJK started their administration in October 2004 with significant political support • (61%), with high expectation and optimisms from the public at large. In a month in power (November 2004), public at large were satisfied with the works of SBY-MJK (80%).

Optimism then decreased sharply within one year (September 2005) reached 64%. It means • the satisfaction level decreased 16% within one year. At the end 2005 and in the beginning 2006, dissatisfaction to SBY-MJK continued at the level 55% (March 2006). The mentioned dissatisfaction was a negative short term effect of the fuel price at the end of the year 2005.

Due to the fuel price increase the number of poor increased 4 million people compare to that • of previous years (2004-2005), or an increase 1,79% (Susenas Maret 2006). Unemployment increases from 10.51 million (2005) to 11.1 million (March 2006), or an • increase 0.35%. According to the data from Susenas BPS March 2006, and public satisfaction pointed out the lowest level to SBY after 1.5 years in power.

SATISFACTION TO THE PERFORMANCE OF SBY-MJK

However, it was a story until March 2006. After that, there is an indication of economic activities which grow slowly. Macro indicators improved. Up to the second quarter economic grew at 5.2%, and it is • predicted to reach out 5.8%. This development is much better than the previous year with only 5.4%. We do not know yet the impact to poverty and unemployment, we have to wait for the next Susenas. Other macro indicators are decreasing of interest rate and stable rupiah against foreign • currency.
Fuel shortage and fuel price increase were the dominant issues of last year. In 2006 public at large do not look at those as problems.
Are these economic improvements known by the public? Is there any improvement from the public who think the overall economic condition is much better after March 2006 compare to the last year? As will be explored below, the economic condition now is much better compare to last year, • the point is increasing, this increase is parallel with the satisfactory level to the performance SBY-JK.

SATISFACTION TO THE PERFORMANCE OF SBY-MJK

• It has an impact to the increase of satisfactory level of the public to SBY-MJK. In

2005 satisfactory level of the public to SBY stayed at 63%, however, after one
year increases to 67%. This increase is significant compare to March 2006 (55%). Satisfactory level to •
SBY-MJK is relatively stable in the last one year. The satisfactory level of SBY-
MJK had been recovered after it reached its low level 55% in March 2006. Increasing of satisfactory level to the performance of SBY-MJK in October 2006 •
is not big compare to the point they achieve in September 2005 (63%). This
result is consistent with public evaluation on the overall economic condition and the level of optimism on the overall economic condition for next one year. It must noted here, SBY-MJK until now are very popular, the public are satisfied • with their performance. This is important political capital for them to take decisive public decision without fear that their popularity will decrease.

PERFORMANCE IN ECONOMIC SECTOR

Evaluation on the present overall national economic condition compare to that of last year and optimism on economic condition for the next year.
Evaluation on the performance of government in handling various economic problems

Performance in Economic Sector The overall economic condition of today compare to last year ...(%)

10 Oct. 03 Oct. 04 Nov.04 Jan.05 Apr.05 Jul.05 Sep.05 Dec.05 Jan.06 Mar.06 Oct.06

Much better Same Much w orse

Performance in Economic Sector The overall economic condition of today compare to last year ...(%)

10 Oct.03 Oct.04 Nov.04 Jan.05 Apr.05 Jul.05 Sep.05 Dec.05 Jan.06 Mar.06 Oct.06

Much better Much worse

Performance in Economic Sector

The state of economic condition a year from now…(%)

9 Oct'03 Oct"04 Nov' 04 Jan' 05 Apr' 05 Jul' 05 Sept' 05 Dec"05 Jan' 06 Mar'06 Oct'06

Much better Same Much w orse

Performance in Economic Sector

The state of economic condition a year from now…(%)

9 Oct'03 Oct'04 Nov' 04 Jan' 05 Apr' 05 Jul' 05 Sept' 05 Dec'05 Jan' 06 Mar'06 Oct'06

Much better Much w orse

Performance in Economic Sector in general

In September 2005, the number of people who think the overall national economic condition of today is much better compare to that of last year was 24%, and now to become 29%. The number of people who think the overall national economic condition was much worse in September 2005 compare to last year was 47%, and now 43%. There is little improvement. The number of people who think the overall economic condition of today is much worse compare to the last year is bigger to those who think it is much better. There is little improvement for SBY-JK, as there is little improvement in economic sector as pointed out by technocrats (not the public). In general the people who are optimist to the national economic prospect under SBY-MJK • administration is relatively similar to the previous year. Within the last nine months this trend is stronger. The people who are optimist that the national economic a year from now is much better is increasing from 39% in January 2006 to 44% on October 2006. Those who are pessimist that the economic condition for the next year is much better is decreasing from 21% in January 2006 to 13% in October 2006. The number of people who are optimist is increasing, while the pessimist is decreasing. Little improvement in economic sector has an impact to the satisfaction to SBY-MJK. •

The government performance in handling problems as follows: (%)

3 Reducing the Reducing Stabilizing prices To guarantee fuel Controlling fuel number of poor unemployment supply price people Good Bad Don't know

The government performance in handling problems as follows: (%)

2 Stabilizing rupiah Securing availability of Inviting investors Constructing roads against US dollar nine commodities Good Bad Don't know

The government performance in handling problems as follows: (%)

10 Housing for people Electricity Water infrastructure Reconstruction in the

infrastructure earth quake regions Good Bad Don't know

Sep' 05 Oct'06 Change

60 re d u c in g po v e r ty re d u c in g une m p lo y m e nt c o n tr o llin g p r ic e o f n in e co m m o d it ie s c o n tr o llin g f u el pr ic e to g u ar an te e av ai lab il it y o f fu e l Me n g e n d a li k a n n ilai r u p iah in v it in g in v e s to r s

Government performance in handling following issues, “Good” or “Very Good,” Sept. 05 – Oct. 06 (%)

Correlation of economy and satisfaction

to the performance of SBY-MJK

To the overall economic condition : r = .24 (P<.01)

To the efforts of government to handle economic problems : r = .38 (P<.01)

ECONOMIC ISSUES

Some of economic issues that need to be resolved by government: poverty,
unemployment, price stability for nine basic commodities, and controlling fuel
price. The number of people who thinks the government has done its job very well in •
controlling fuel price and guarantee its availability in the market are increasing.
The number of people who think the government can handle rupiah value against the US dollar and to invite foreign investors are also increasing. More importantly, government had been perceived as performing its job in • infrastructure such as road, electricity, water). With plus-minus of those indicators, the performance of government in economic • sector is a little better compare to last year, and as such has impact on the increasing satisfaction of people to SBY-JK. Public satisfaction on performance of SBY-JK is supported by their handling in •

politics and security issues.

POLITICS and LAW

Government performance in handling following issues (%)

5 Anti drug efforts Criminality Gambling Fighting coruption

Good Bad Don't know

Government performance in handling following issues (%)

10 Terrrorism Comunal conflict Protecting Illegal lodging

Indonesian overseas worker Good Bad Don't know

Government performance in handling following issues (%)

10 Illegal mining Government services Separatims in Papua Free Aceh Movement

Good Bad Don't know

Government performance in handling following issues (%)

10 Realization of Government Make peace Local elections Labor-Employee

MoU Helsinki services among former issues Free Aceh

Movement members and local inhabitants

Good Bad TT

Performance in Politics-Law-Security Issues Government performance in handling following issues … (%)

77 Fight criminality

76 Fight Gambling

65.1 Reducing corruption

71 Protect the minority

51.5 Protect Indonesian overseas workers

51.9 Reducing illegal logging

47 C ontrol illegal mining

57.8 Handling conflict in Papua

75.9 Handling Free Aceh Movement

69 Implementing Helsinki MoU with Free Aceh

66.4

63 Movement Make peace between former Free Aceh

73.3

72 Movement member with Indonesian citizens

Correlation of politics-security issues and

satisfaction to the performance of SBY-JK

r = .27 (P<.01)

Influence of Politics-Security Politics-security indicators have been positively perceived by the public in • general. Public evaluate that government has done a good job in handling politics and •

security issues such as order, criminality, terrorism, separatism, communal

conflict, fighting corruption, etc.

However, there are decreasing indicators on the government performance compare to last year, especially in reducing corruption. In September 2005, the number of people who think government had done a good job in reducing poverty was 65%, and now (October 2006), decreased to become 55%. Positive perception on the performance of government in handling politics and • security issues are increased the public satisfaction to SBY-JK. How about the social affairs? •

SOCIAL AFFAIRS ISSUES

Government performance in handling following issues (%)

4 Health service cheap Women Avian flu mud problem education empowerment in sidoarjo Good Bad Don't know

Government performance in handling following issues (%)“Good” or “Very Good,” Sept. 05 – Oct. 06 (%)

66 Sept' 05

61 Oct'06

40 Education Health Women empowerment

Correlation of performance in social affairs and public satisfaction to performance of SBY-JK r = .27 (P<.01).

Performance of Ministries and department (Cabinet)

Performance of department and ministries:

3.86

3.79

3.76

3.69

3.68

3.64

3.62

3.61

3.6 s n . e re rs al ry th th on ir .. io ion u ci ns tu al ai ta at ffa an ligi ff ul ili fe tat Yo

So He n A uc M

C or Re o De n e A d Ed ti m ig sp an ca re an Ho ni m Fo Tr u is ur mm To Co

Average score from a scale of 1 - 5:

Very bad : 1 - 1.50
Bad : 1.51 - 2.50
Middle : 2.51 - 3.50
Good : 3.51 - 4.50

Performance of department and ministries:

3.58

3.57

3.56

3.55

3.54

3.52

3.51

3.49

3.48 . e e e n e cy

c. ce ry ve ch er. ec n ur OE ecu ent li ti ad st S S me tim

S lt anc Se l S ge ear t ra n Po ri

Tr s- nm du cu vi te Wo o Fi es

pe ri g A tic Ma In Ci ta ir R li S oo in Ag abi C n C Po Env an

Average score from a scale of 1 - 5

Very bad : 1 - 1.50
Bad : 1.51 - 2.50
Middle : 2.51 - 3.50

Performance of department and ministries:

3.47

3.46

3.44

3.42

3.41

3.35

3.34

3.32

3.27 s . ff t y n

rs n ry o

rk rd A rg e ti o fai n st si e u m oo io re En l w

C l Af Hou sec loy a eg

Fo ic ra p R e ci ro r n P om Em So oo Ge on P Ec Average score from a scale of 1 - 5

Very bad : 1 - 1.50
Bad : 1.51 - 2.50
Middle : 2.51 - 3.50
Good : 3.51 - 4.50

Performance of department and ministries: There is ministries of department that received a very good grade, but there is • none that received very bad grade.

In general the performance of all ministries and departments fall between a • middle and good. Their grade is moderate.

• Within this range from middle to good, the military received the highest points,
and forestry the lowest. However, from the entire ministries and departments, the office that has strong • relation to the performance of SBY-JK are economic coordinating ministry and departments under it. Consistent with it, economic issues strongly related to the performance of SBY- • JK, not of politics-security or social affairs.

Impact on evaluation over performance of SBY-JK

Multivariate Analysis (Only show the issues that are statistically significant at

P<.05)

Standardized regression coefficients (Beta) Economic Issues

.231 Ministry/department Coordinating .154 Economic

Ministry/department politics-security .143 National economic condition .105 Citizen living in the less developed .096 villages

ELECTORAL IMPLICATION

KEPEMIMPINAN ALTERNATIF

• Many believes that administration of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono must

be criticized and watched by individual or political parties outside the
government to pressure to his government to work for the people. Do you agree with this opinion?
The number of national figures express their criticims to the government. If they are given a chance to run the government, do you
think they are more competent than SBY, or have similar capacity to
SBY, or less competent than SBY to handle problems faced by our nation? They are: Amien Rais, Hidayat Nurwahid, Megawati, Akbar Tandjung, Ryas Rasjid, dan Wiranto,
• Among the name listed above, in your opinion, who are capable to lead
Indonesia for the future in handling problems faced by our nation? Semi-open.

OPPOSITION

The necessity of opposition outside the government with task to criticize and control, so that the government will work much better for the people …(%)

100

6 Agree Not agree Don't know

70 Akbar Amien Hidayat N Magawati Ryas R Wiranto have more capability than SBY have similar capability to that of SBY have similar incapability with SBY have less capability than SBY Don't know Net

The following national leaders, if they are given a chance to

run the government will …(%)

>22

National leader who are perceived having more

capability to run Indonesia for the next future

(%)

10 SBY Megawati Others (16 Don't know

persons)

There is no substitute for national leadership Almost all people see the importance of opposition to criticize and control the • government SBY-MJK for them to make decisions which are reflected the interest of the people. There is no one who have ability as opposition and who received recognition form •

the people so that s/he will be perceived as having more capability than SBY in

leading Indonesia.

In general the number of people think that these national leaders are less capable than SBY to lead Indonesia. SBY is still perceived as the main figure who is capable in leading Indonesia that • faced many problems. The big gap between SBY and other national leaders in perceiving who are • capable to lead Indonesia for the future points out a failure of political recruitment in the political party elites. SBY has no substantial rival. •

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

If election will be conducted today, which presidential • candidate do you vote for? Open If election will be conducted today, which presidential • candidate do you vote for? Do you vote for SBY or other candidates?

PRESIDENT VOTE

If election will be conducted today, which presidential candidate do you vote for?

Open question…(%)

2.4

2 SBY Megawati Others Don't know

PRESIDENT VOTE

If election will be conducted today, which presidential candidate do you vote for?

SBY vs Other figures …(%) Closed question

60 SBY

40 Others

32.5

29.5

25 Don't know

10 Dec'05 Jan' 06 Mar' 06 Oct'06

NO RIVAL

• The weakness of opposition from important figures against SBY,
and failure from political parties to produce alternate figures from that of existing today, offers a big opportunities for SBY to be relected as the president if election is done today (when the survey was conducted).
• The potential SBY rival is still Megawati, with a wider margin of
more than a half for SBY.
Why does SBY has a big chance to be reelected as president?

Impact on vote for president (SBY vs other)

Multivariate Analysis (significant at P<.05)

Standardized regression coefficients (Beta) Performance of SBY-JK

.267 Economic Issues .119 Ministries/department politics-law- .112 security

Vote for Partai Demokrat .246

Path analysis performance of SBY-JK and vote for SBY Vote for SBY

Security-Law Demokrat K SBY-JK Economic issues

Econ. Coord.

Dept.

National Economic Condition Villagers

.25 .27 .12 .11 .23

.15 .14 .10

.10 .08 .29

Social Dept .22

Security issues .26 .17

.14 Welfare issues

.14 .16

.19 .09 .28 .68

.59 .63 (Standardized regression coefficients)

Determinant voting for SBY compare to others

Statistical analysis pointed out that satisfaction on performance of SBY as president is an • important factor for him to be reelected. Contribution of this satisfaction compare to that of other factors is around 27%. Contribution from Partai Demokrat partisant is about 25%. • Evaluation on capability of the government to handle economic issues is around 11%, and • performance of departments/ministries under Politics-law-security is around 10%.

Satisfaction on SBY-JK performance is closely related to their capability to handle economic issues, performance of coordinating ministry of economic affairs and politics-law-security, and evaluation on national economic condition. Social affairs, expenditure side of government, has no influence on satisfaction level of the • people on performance of SBY-JK (controlled by factors from economic and politics-law- security) This patterns points out that economy and politics are important factors which determine • weak or strong support to SBY. If it is weak, then SBY will not be re-elected , otherwise if it is string, SBY will be elected.

CONCLUSION

There is a stalemate in recruitment and promotion of national leadership by political parties • other than the incumbent. Parties are tied veteran figures from election in 2004 which had been won by SBY-MJK. As consequences, SBY until today is still very popular due to lack of alternate figures. SBY will win the election if it will be held today, as it happened in 2004.

A wider electoral margin among SBY and other figures is uncommon in democracy, and • political elites should address this point. Outside the incumbent, in general a number of people want opposition, howvere, they do not • see potential figures who have more capability than SBY. These elites have no capability to convince the public. SBY-JK strenghts are located in approval or public satisfaction on them. Almost 7 out of 10 • citizen with voting rights (67%) are satisfied or very satisfy on performance of SBY-MJK as president-vice president. This satisfactory level is increasing significantly compare to the early 2006 while it was 55%. Compare to September 2005, this increase is not significant, only 4%. Sources of fluctuation on public satisfaction on performance of SBY-JK shall be public • evaluation on national economic condition: is national economic condition today much better or worse compare to the one in last year, and is national economic condition for the next year much better or worse compare of today.

CONCLUSION

The level of public satisfaction on performance of SBY-MJK decreased when the level of positif public evaluation on economic condition decreased, or when the level of public evalation on national economic condition increased as it happened in December 2005, January 2006, and March 2006. On the contrary, the level of public satisfaction on perfomance of SBY increased when the level of public evaluation on national economic condition increases, and the level of nagative public evaluation on national economic condition decrease. Fluctuation of positive-negative on economic condition is associated to how public assess • government performance in handling specific economic issues such as reducing povertyand unemployment, availability and control over price of nine basic commodities, mainly fuel, controlling currency, investment, and development in infrastructure sector.
Evaluation on government performance in handling economic issues is related to public evaluation on performance of ministries/departments of economic affairs. In general, performance of those offices in the eyes of public is MIDDLE, even though not bad, and it helps to increase public satisfaction on SBY-MJK. Politics-law-security factors are also important for positive public evaluation on performance • of SBY-MJK. Their handling on communal conflicts, separatism, fighting with drugs, order are several indicators from this factor, so far, the government is perceived as doing a good job in handling those issues. Compare to that of offices under economic ministers, the offices of politics-law-security had been perceived as doing a good job by the public, yet their impact is

CONCLUSION Stagnation on recruitment of political elites outside the incumbent, and GOOD • performance of incumbent in politics-law-security and MIDDLE in economic sector makes SBY popular in the eyes of public. If these three factors change to negative for SBY, then public satisfaction level will decrease.

Political parties has three years to go to offer alternate figures, which will be • evaluated by the public.

SBY-MJK has huge political capital (67%), and it could be a foundation to take • decisive technocratic decisions in order to recover economic condition, which has direct impact to political career of SBY. If this capital will not be used in making decisive decisions, it could not be harvested in 2009.

PROSPECT OF NATIONAL LEADERSHIP PUBLIC EVALUATION ON THE PERFORMANCE OF PRESIDENT AND VICA PRESIDENT