Indonesian Logistics Overview Yukki Nugrahawan Hanafi
Indonesian Logistics Overview
YUKKI NUGRAHAWAN HANAFI
Chairman
Member of :
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
15 Packages of Economic Policies
9 Sept 2015
Package 1
Improvement of industrial
competition level
7 Oct 2015
Package 3
Expanding access to financing
and reducing production costs
29 Sept 2015
Package 2
Investment promotion and
foreign exchange
27 Jan 2016
Package 9
Electricity and
logistics infrastructure
15 Oct 2015
Package 4
Wage system guarantees and
securing work termination
29 Mar 2016
Package 11
Financing access, Dwelling Time,
and pharmaceutical industry
11 Feb 2016
Package 10
Openness of investment
15 Jun 2017
Package 15
Development of national
logistic industry
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
22 Oct 2015
Package 5
Asset revaluation and
access to sharia financing
5 Nov 2015
Package 6
2015
Drive economies in the periphery
and the smoothness of raw
material of medicine
24 Aug 2016
Package 13
House provision for
low income communities
28 Apr 2016
Package 12
Ranking enhancement of
Ease of Doing Business
7 Dec 2015
Package 7
Industry tax incentives and
land certification
10 Nov 2016
Package 14
21 Dec 2015
Package 8
Business certainty and
investment of aircraft and
oil maintenance services
2016
Drive economies in the periphery
and the smoothness of raw
material of medicine
2017
2
Understanding Logistics
“Logistics is that PART of the SUPPLY
CHAIN PROCESS that plans,
implements, and controls the efficient,
effective flow and storage of goods,
services, and related information from
the point-of-origin to the point-ofconsumption in order to meet customers’
requirements” (Council of Logistics
Management)…
Logistics and Supply Chain
Management
Effective organizing activities on the flow
of raw materials, inventories of
manufactured goods, finished goods, and
related information from the point of origin
to the point of consumption to meet
customer needs.
Lambert, 4th Edition
Suppliers
Food Processing,
Factory
Distribution
Center
Wholesaler
The flow of goods, information, and costs
Retailer
Consumer
: Logistic activities
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
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3
The Importance of Logistic and Transportation
Part of building nation's competitiveness
Supporting the creation of national efficiency
Logistics
Encourage National Economic Integration
Ensure availability, access, price stabilization, and
quality of goods
Enabler for Trading
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
4
Network of National Logistics System
Maritime Shaft
Village
InterIsland
Village
International
Hub Port
EROPA
District
Village
Village
District
Village
International
Hub Port
AFRIKA
InterIsland
Indonesia
International
Port
International
Hub Port
ASIA
Village
District
Village
Village
InterIsland
Village
International
Hub Port
AUSTRALIA
International
Hub Port
AMERIKA
Indonesia
Integration of Local and National Networks
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
Global Networks Connectivity
5
Internet
Banking
SMS
Banking
Cash
Basis
T/T
Means of Transportation
Security
Data
Physical Network
Information
Storage Facilities
Means of Transportation
Transport Node
Port
Modes of Transportation
Sea
Provider
Distributor
Infrastructure
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
Typical Application
Delivery Channel
Messaging Hub
Telecommunication Network
W/H, CY, CFS, Container, Pallet, Depot
Ships, Airplane, Trucks, Railways, Pipes
River Port
Airport
Land Port
Station
Depot
River
Air
Road
Railway
Pipe
Manufacturer, Importer, Exporter
Trader, Distributor, Wholesaler, Agent, Retailer
Agro Terminal, Central Market, Traditional Market, Stall, Store,
Hyper/Super/Mini Market
Data
Documents
Applications
Message
Application
Logistics Infrastructure
ATM
Freight
Tools
Banking, Insurance, LKBB
Money
Service Actors
Trade
Distribution
Network
Transportation
Network
Information
Network
Financial
Network
Matrix of Logistics Infrastructure
6
Logistics Service Provider
1PL : Shipper / Consignee (Sender / Receiver)
2PL : Actual Carriers (airline, shipping line or truck operator)
3PL : A company that provides multiple logistics services, including
transportation, warehousing, cross-docking, inventory management,
packaging, and freight forwarding.
4PL : Consulting firm specializing in logistics, transportation and supply
chain management. Sometimes described as non-asset service providers,
their role is to provide a wider scope of management throughout the supply
chain.
5PL : Logistics service providers who plan, organize and implement
logistics solutions on behalf of the contractor (especially information
systems) by utilizing appropriate technology, extend further scope for ebusiness.
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
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Supply Chain Management
Supply chains are complex interdependent systems and involve:
Whole of Chain Thinking
Labour
Oil and alternative energy
Transport
Logistics
Finance
Business Processes
Transaction Systems
Supply
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
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Information Technology
Procurement
Supply Chain Management
Commercial Power
Legal and Regulatory Systems
People and Relationships
Strategic Asset Investment
Geo-Political Economy
Demand
8
Sector Overview – Logistics Sector
The growth of each logistics service in ASEAN has continued to achieve double-digit growth. In particular, express &
small parcel (last mile delivery) and cold chain (low temperature logistics & refrigerated warehousing) are expected to
grow the most rapidly.
Logistics Market Size by Country
Logistics Service
Contract Logistics*
(incl. land transportation and warehousing)
Express & Small
Parcel
Air & Sea Freight Forwarding
* Contract Logistics/ Third-Party Logistics (3PLs) normally providing long-term
contract carriage and warehousing services supplying tractors, drivers and management.
Country
(US$ billion)
2013
2017
CAGR
13-17
2013
2017
CAGR
13-17
2013
2017
CAGR
13-17
Singapore
1.0
1.3
7.3%
3.7
5.0
7.7%
0.7
0.9
9.8%
Malaysia
1.2
1.8
10.2%
1.9
2.6
8.8%
1.4
2.7
23.0%
Thailand
1.5
2.2
9.7%
2.1
2.8
8.0%
1.7
2.9
17.1%
Indonesia
2.4
3.7
11.7%
1.9
3.0
11.8%
4.0
7.6
21.7%
Vietnam
0.6
0.9
10.9%
0.9
1.4
12.5%
0.6
1.0
20.9%
Philippines
0.7
1.0
11.3%
0.6
0.9
12.3%
1.2
2.4
24.1%
Japan
21.5
23.5
2.3%
7.2
7.8
1.9%
23.8
25.8
2.8%
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
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9
Pros) Strong Growth in Logistics Market (3PL)
3PL revenue expects to grow at CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 11.7% for the forecast period of 2013 to 2017
due to the increment of 3PL outsourcing needs in Indonesia.
The growth rate would be the highest percentage among ASEAN6.
Indonesian Contract Logistics Market Forecast
(2013-2017F)
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
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Contract Logistics Market Size
By Country
Growth
13-17(%)
Country
2013
2017
Indonesia
2,402
3,747
11.7
Thailand
1,543
2,233
9.7
Malaysia
1,244
1,837
10.2
Singapore
961
1,276
7.3
Philippines
659
1,011
11.3
Vietnam
603
910
10.9
10
Pros) Strong Growth in Sea Freight Forwarding and
Domestic Express and Small Parcel Market
Freight forwarding revenue expects to grow at CAGR of 11.8% for the forecast period of 2013 to 2017.
The growth of sea freight would be larger than air freight for the next few years.
Domestic express and small parcel market in 2017 expects to be twice larger than the market size in 2013
Freight Forwarding Market Forecast
(2013-2017F)
(USD million)
(USD million)
8,000
3,500
3,000
Sea
Air
2013-2017
3,043
CAGR
11.8%
International
7,000
1,845
1,948
Sea freight (CAGR 13.6%)
1,107
2,000
841
CAGR
11.8%
806
4,031
470
International (CAGR 14.5%)
6,758
3,000
1,000
500
7,564
5,000
4,000
1,500
domestic
2013-2017
6,000
2,500
2,000
Express and Small Parcel Market Forecast
(2013-2017F)
Air freight (CAGR 9.3%)
1,198
3,561
Domestic (CAGR 17.4%)
1,000
-
2013
2015F
2016F
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
2017F
2013
2015F
2016F
2017F
11
Expanding Middle Class
Pros) Rising Middle Class in Indonesia
Forecast of Household Disposable Income
(2014-2030F)
Household 80
in Millions
Affluent Class : Yearly Disposable Income of > US$ 35,000
70
Middle Income Class : Yearly Disposable Income of US$ 5,000 - 35,000
60
Lower Income Class : Yearly Disposable Income of < US$ 5,000
50
806
40
30
1,845
20
470
6,758
10
1,107
0
Affluent + 841
Middle Class
Households
Change
2014
2030
2014
20301,198
2014
2030
2014
2030
3,561
2014
2030
2014
2030
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
+59%
+120%
+83%
+43%
+44%
+28%
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
2014
2030
Japan
4%
12
Pros) Rapid Growth on Modern Trade in Indonesia
Modern Trade vs. Traditional Trade in ASEAN
100%
7(MT) : 3 (TT)
806
5:5
50%
4:6
72
70
74
3:7
1,845
38
1,107
43
47
45
40
51
2:8
12
17
470
19
6,758
23
29
32
1:9
3,561
4
1,198
0%
10841 15
Singapore
20
10
15
Malaysia
20
10
15
Thailand
Modern Trade
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
20
10
15
Indonesia
20
10
15
Philippines
20
10
5
6
15
20
Vietnam
Traditional Trade
13
Pros) By the rising middle classes in Indonesia and the increasing popularity
of mobile devices, Indonesia is the fastest growing and the largest market in ASEAN.
Country
2015
EC Market Size
(USD million)
CAGR
2011-2015
CAGR
2016-2020
Indonesia
1,682
44.4%
37.0%
Thailand
1,441
21.7%
12.0%
980
12.4%
10.0%
Singapore
806
Vietnam
Malaysia
1,845
698
44.0%
22.7%
519
15.9%
10.7%
470
354
Philippines
1,107
China
1,198
293,045
14.4%
3,561
6,758
6.7%
65.4%
11.7%
13.5%
9.9%
841
Japan
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
69,074
14
Cons) The Cost of Logistics Remains High
Logistics Cost per GDP, Indonesia (Indonesia, 2013-19F)
Logistics costs
(Trillion IDR)
Logistics Costs (ASEAN, 2014)
Logistics costs to GDP
30.0%
30.0%
4,000
25.7%
25.7%
3,500
25.0%
25.7
25.0
25.0%
24.0%
25.0%
23.5%
22.1%
21.0%
3,000
20.0%
20.0%
806
2,500
15.0%
13.2
15.0%
2,000
1,845
3,67
3,18
1,500
10.0%
2,76
1,107
13.0
10.0%
470
6,758
8.1
8.1
2,40
2,08
1,000
1,81
1,62
5.0%
5.0%
3,561
0.0%
0.0%
1,198
500
841
0
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
2017F
2018F
2019F
ID
VN
TH
MY
SG
(Reference)
JP
15
Cons)
Require to bridge a gap between Indonesia’s infrastructure budget and actual
I do esia’s i f ast u tu e spe di g to GDP atio is o e of the lo est a o g othe A“EAN ou t ies
The new government show its commitment to increase its budget for infrastructure. The planned government
i f ast u tu e spe d i ease 9% i the
6 udget o the p e ious ea ’s pla ed spe d. Ho e e , the e has ee a
huge gap between the revised state budget and the actual over the past four years.
Share of Infrastructure Spending to GDP, ASEAN (2014)
Government Spending on Infrastructure (2012-17)
(Trillion IDR)
450
9.0%
Revised State Budget
7.7%
8.0%
400
806
Actual
350
7.0%
300
6.0%
1,845
250
5.0%
4.0%
3.2%
1,107
3.0%
2.4%
2.0%
200
3.6%
100
1,198
841
Singapore Philippines
3,561
50
0.0%
Indonesia
6,758
150
2.5%
2.0%
1.0%
470
Malaysia
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
Thailand
Vietnam
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
16
Cons) Indonesia ranks 63rd in LPI /2016
Need to improve in each logistics indicator
Logistics Performance Indicators: LPI Results (2016)
Country
LPI
Rank
LPI
Score
Customs
Rank
Infrastructure
Rank
International
Shipments
Rank
8
1
4
66
5
3
9
11
2
19
14
13
21
12
32
39
470
38
71
50
62
60
3,561
52
144
148
Logistics Quality
and Competence
Rank
1
10
2
3
5
6
4
7
11
8
14
12
17
27
35
32
49
55
62
93
77
89
119
144
1
4.23
2
1
Germany
2
4.22
9
4
Luxembourg
3
4.20
8
3
Sweden
4
4.19
3
2
Netherlands
5
4.14
1
6
Singapore
6
4.11
13
14
Belgium
7
4.10
15
12
Austria
8
4.07
5
5
UK
9
4.07
7
10
Hon Kong
10
3.99
16
8
US
11
3.99
10
7
Switzerland
12
3.97
11
11
Japan
19
3.79
22
18
Australia
27
3.66
31
23
China
1,845
32
3.43
40
33
Malaysia
35
3.42
38
36
India
45
3.26
46
46
Thailand
63
2.98
69
73
Indonesia
1,107
64
2.98
64
70
Vietnam
70
2.87
57
66
Bunei
71
2.86
78
82
Philippines
73
2.80
99
Cambodia
1,198 77
113
2.46
96
105
Myanmar
841
152
2.07
155
155
Lao PDR
The international LPI analyzes countries in six components :
• The effi ie
of usto s a d o de lea a e Custo s
• The ualit of t ade a d t a spo t i f ast u tu e I f ast u tu e
• The ease of a a gi g o petiti el p i ed ship e ts I te atio al ship e ts, Ease of a a gi g ship e ts
• The competence and quality of logistics services-t u ki g, fo a di g, a d usto s oke age “e i e ualit , Qualit of logisti s se i es
• The a ilit to t a k a d t a e o sig
e ts T a ki g a d t a i g
• The f e ue
ith hi h ship e ts ea h o sig ees ithi s heduled o e pe ted deli e ti es Ti eli ess
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
Tracking and
Tracing
Rank
3
6
1
6
10
4
2
7
14
806
5
12
13
19
28
36
33
50 6,758
51
75
68
73
81
94
156
Timeliness
Rank
2
1
3
5
6
4
7
8
9
11
14
15
21
31
47
42
52
62
56
84
70
73
112
133
17
(Reference)
Lack of Road Network Connectivity
The result of poor connectivity in Indonesia causes a longer lead time and an insufficient supply chain.
The density of road network has been staying at around 0.3 kilometers per km2 of land over the past 5 years.
Density of Road Network
(2011-2015)
(kilometers per km2 of land)
6.0
4.9
4.8
5.0
4.9
5.0
4.9
806
4.0
1,845
3.0
470
6,758
1,107
2.0
3,561
1.0
841
0.3
1,198
0.7 0.7
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.7 0.7
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.7 0.7
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.7 0.7
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
2011
2012
Myanmar
Indonesia
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
2013
Thailand
Malaysia
2014
Vietnam
Philippines
2015
Singapore
18
(Reference)
Undeveloped Infrastructure (Unpaved Roads)
The weak infrastructure and unpaved road will slow down the growth of logistics industry.
The proportion of paved roads has been staying at around 57% of total road network in Indonesia over the past 5 years.
Proportion of Paved Roads
(2011-2015)
(kilometers per km2 of land)
98.5 100.0
100.0
98.5 100.0
98.5 100.0
98.5 100.0
98.5 100.0
90.0
80.9
78.1
80.0
77.2
76.9
76.6
806
70.0
57.0
60.0
56.8
52.7
46.6
50.0
56.7
52.2
45.7
56.6
52.0
45.4
51.9
45.0
44.8
470
40.0
30.0
56.7
52.1
31.4
30.8
30.1
29.3
28.4
20.0
10.0
0.0
2011
2012
Philippines
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
Myanmar
2013
Vietnam
Indonesia
2014
Malaysia
Thailand
2015
Singapore
19
Member of :
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
YUKKI NUGRAHAWAN HANAFI
Chairman
Member of :
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
15 Packages of Economic Policies
9 Sept 2015
Package 1
Improvement of industrial
competition level
7 Oct 2015
Package 3
Expanding access to financing
and reducing production costs
29 Sept 2015
Package 2
Investment promotion and
foreign exchange
27 Jan 2016
Package 9
Electricity and
logistics infrastructure
15 Oct 2015
Package 4
Wage system guarantees and
securing work termination
29 Mar 2016
Package 11
Financing access, Dwelling Time,
and pharmaceutical industry
11 Feb 2016
Package 10
Openness of investment
15 Jun 2017
Package 15
Development of national
logistic industry
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
22 Oct 2015
Package 5
Asset revaluation and
access to sharia financing
5 Nov 2015
Package 6
2015
Drive economies in the periphery
and the smoothness of raw
material of medicine
24 Aug 2016
Package 13
House provision for
low income communities
28 Apr 2016
Package 12
Ranking enhancement of
Ease of Doing Business
7 Dec 2015
Package 7
Industry tax incentives and
land certification
10 Nov 2016
Package 14
21 Dec 2015
Package 8
Business certainty and
investment of aircraft and
oil maintenance services
2016
Drive economies in the periphery
and the smoothness of raw
material of medicine
2017
2
Understanding Logistics
“Logistics is that PART of the SUPPLY
CHAIN PROCESS that plans,
implements, and controls the efficient,
effective flow and storage of goods,
services, and related information from
the point-of-origin to the point-ofconsumption in order to meet customers’
requirements” (Council of Logistics
Management)…
Logistics and Supply Chain
Management
Effective organizing activities on the flow
of raw materials, inventories of
manufactured goods, finished goods, and
related information from the point of origin
to the point of consumption to meet
customer needs.
Lambert, 4th Edition
Suppliers
Food Processing,
Factory
Distribution
Center
Wholesaler
The flow of goods, information, and costs
Retailer
Consumer
: Logistic activities
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
3
The Importance of Logistic and Transportation
Part of building nation's competitiveness
Supporting the creation of national efficiency
Logistics
Encourage National Economic Integration
Ensure availability, access, price stabilization, and
quality of goods
Enabler for Trading
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
4
Network of National Logistics System
Maritime Shaft
Village
InterIsland
Village
International
Hub Port
EROPA
District
Village
Village
District
Village
International
Hub Port
AFRIKA
InterIsland
Indonesia
International
Port
International
Hub Port
ASIA
Village
District
Village
Village
InterIsland
Village
International
Hub Port
AUSTRALIA
International
Hub Port
AMERIKA
Indonesia
Integration of Local and National Networks
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
Global Networks Connectivity
5
Internet
Banking
SMS
Banking
Cash
Basis
T/T
Means of Transportation
Security
Data
Physical Network
Information
Storage Facilities
Means of Transportation
Transport Node
Port
Modes of Transportation
Sea
Provider
Distributor
Infrastructure
ASOSIASI LOGISTIK DAN FORWARDER INDONESIA
INDONESIAN LOGISTICS AND FORWARDERS ASSOCIATION
Typical Application
Delivery Channel
Messaging Hub
Telecommunication Network
W/H, CY, CFS, Container, Pallet, Depot
Ships, Airplane, Trucks, Railways, Pipes
River Port
Airport
Land Port
Station
Depot
River
Air
Road
Railway
Pipe
Manufacturer, Importer, Exporter
Trader, Distributor, Wholesaler, Agent, Retailer
Agro Terminal, Central Market, Traditional Market, Stall, Store,
Hyper/Super/Mini Market
Data
Documents
Applications
Message
Application
Logistics Infrastructure
ATM
Freight
Tools
Banking, Insurance, LKBB
Money
Service Actors
Trade
Distribution
Network
Transportation
Network
Information
Network
Financial
Network
Matrix of Logistics Infrastructure
6
Logistics Service Provider
1PL : Shipper / Consignee (Sender / Receiver)
2PL : Actual Carriers (airline, shipping line or truck operator)
3PL : A company that provides multiple logistics services, including
transportation, warehousing, cross-docking, inventory management,
packaging, and freight forwarding.
4PL : Consulting firm specializing in logistics, transportation and supply
chain management. Sometimes described as non-asset service providers,
their role is to provide a wider scope of management throughout the supply
chain.
5PL : Logistics service providers who plan, organize and implement
logistics solutions on behalf of the contractor (especially information
systems) by utilizing appropriate technology, extend further scope for ebusiness.
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Supply Chain Management
Supply chains are complex interdependent systems and involve:
Whole of Chain Thinking
Labour
Oil and alternative energy
Transport
Logistics
Finance
Business Processes
Transaction Systems
Supply
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Information Technology
Procurement
Supply Chain Management
Commercial Power
Legal and Regulatory Systems
People and Relationships
Strategic Asset Investment
Geo-Political Economy
Demand
8
Sector Overview – Logistics Sector
The growth of each logistics service in ASEAN has continued to achieve double-digit growth. In particular, express &
small parcel (last mile delivery) and cold chain (low temperature logistics & refrigerated warehousing) are expected to
grow the most rapidly.
Logistics Market Size by Country
Logistics Service
Contract Logistics*
(incl. land transportation and warehousing)
Express & Small
Parcel
Air & Sea Freight Forwarding
* Contract Logistics/ Third-Party Logistics (3PLs) normally providing long-term
contract carriage and warehousing services supplying tractors, drivers and management.
Country
(US$ billion)
2013
2017
CAGR
13-17
2013
2017
CAGR
13-17
2013
2017
CAGR
13-17
Singapore
1.0
1.3
7.3%
3.7
5.0
7.7%
0.7
0.9
9.8%
Malaysia
1.2
1.8
10.2%
1.9
2.6
8.8%
1.4
2.7
23.0%
Thailand
1.5
2.2
9.7%
2.1
2.8
8.0%
1.7
2.9
17.1%
Indonesia
2.4
3.7
11.7%
1.9
3.0
11.8%
4.0
7.6
21.7%
Vietnam
0.6
0.9
10.9%
0.9
1.4
12.5%
0.6
1.0
20.9%
Philippines
0.7
1.0
11.3%
0.6
0.9
12.3%
1.2
2.4
24.1%
Japan
21.5
23.5
2.3%
7.2
7.8
1.9%
23.8
25.8
2.8%
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Pros) Strong Growth in Logistics Market (3PL)
3PL revenue expects to grow at CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 11.7% for the forecast period of 2013 to 2017
due to the increment of 3PL outsourcing needs in Indonesia.
The growth rate would be the highest percentage among ASEAN6.
Indonesian Contract Logistics Market Forecast
(2013-2017F)
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Contract Logistics Market Size
By Country
Growth
13-17(%)
Country
2013
2017
Indonesia
2,402
3,747
11.7
Thailand
1,543
2,233
9.7
Malaysia
1,244
1,837
10.2
Singapore
961
1,276
7.3
Philippines
659
1,011
11.3
Vietnam
603
910
10.9
10
Pros) Strong Growth in Sea Freight Forwarding and
Domestic Express and Small Parcel Market
Freight forwarding revenue expects to grow at CAGR of 11.8% for the forecast period of 2013 to 2017.
The growth of sea freight would be larger than air freight for the next few years.
Domestic express and small parcel market in 2017 expects to be twice larger than the market size in 2013
Freight Forwarding Market Forecast
(2013-2017F)
(USD million)
(USD million)
8,000
3,500
3,000
Sea
Air
2013-2017
3,043
CAGR
11.8%
International
7,000
1,845
1,948
Sea freight (CAGR 13.6%)
1,107
2,000
841
CAGR
11.8%
806
4,031
470
International (CAGR 14.5%)
6,758
3,000
1,000
500
7,564
5,000
4,000
1,500
domestic
2013-2017
6,000
2,500
2,000
Express and Small Parcel Market Forecast
(2013-2017F)
Air freight (CAGR 9.3%)
1,198
3,561
Domestic (CAGR 17.4%)
1,000
-
2013
2015F
2016F
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2017F
2013
2015F
2016F
2017F
11
Expanding Middle Class
Pros) Rising Middle Class in Indonesia
Forecast of Household Disposable Income
(2014-2030F)
Household 80
in Millions
Affluent Class : Yearly Disposable Income of > US$ 35,000
70
Middle Income Class : Yearly Disposable Income of US$ 5,000 - 35,000
60
Lower Income Class : Yearly Disposable Income of < US$ 5,000
50
806
40
30
1,845
20
470
6,758
10
1,107
0
Affluent + 841
Middle Class
Households
Change
2014
2030
2014
20301,198
2014
2030
2014
2030
3,561
2014
2030
2014
2030
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
+59%
+120%
+83%
+43%
+44%
+28%
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2014
2030
Japan
4%
12
Pros) Rapid Growth on Modern Trade in Indonesia
Modern Trade vs. Traditional Trade in ASEAN
100%
7(MT) : 3 (TT)
806
5:5
50%
4:6
72
70
74
3:7
1,845
38
1,107
43
47
45
40
51
2:8
12
17
470
19
6,758
23
29
32
1:9
3,561
4
1,198
0%
10841 15
Singapore
20
10
15
Malaysia
20
10
15
Thailand
Modern Trade
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20
10
15
Indonesia
20
10
15
Philippines
20
10
5
6
15
20
Vietnam
Traditional Trade
13
Pros) By the rising middle classes in Indonesia and the increasing popularity
of mobile devices, Indonesia is the fastest growing and the largest market in ASEAN.
Country
2015
EC Market Size
(USD million)
CAGR
2011-2015
CAGR
2016-2020
Indonesia
1,682
44.4%
37.0%
Thailand
1,441
21.7%
12.0%
980
12.4%
10.0%
Singapore
806
Vietnam
Malaysia
1,845
698
44.0%
22.7%
519
15.9%
10.7%
470
354
Philippines
1,107
China
1,198
293,045
14.4%
3,561
6,758
6.7%
65.4%
11.7%
13.5%
9.9%
841
Japan
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69,074
14
Cons) The Cost of Logistics Remains High
Logistics Cost per GDP, Indonesia (Indonesia, 2013-19F)
Logistics costs
(Trillion IDR)
Logistics Costs (ASEAN, 2014)
Logistics costs to GDP
30.0%
30.0%
4,000
25.7%
25.7%
3,500
25.0%
25.7
25.0
25.0%
24.0%
25.0%
23.5%
22.1%
21.0%
3,000
20.0%
20.0%
806
2,500
15.0%
13.2
15.0%
2,000
1,845
3,67
3,18
1,500
10.0%
2,76
1,107
13.0
10.0%
470
6,758
8.1
8.1
2,40
2,08
1,000
1,81
1,62
5.0%
5.0%
3,561
0.0%
0.0%
1,198
500
841
0
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
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2017F
2018F
2019F
ID
VN
TH
MY
SG
(Reference)
JP
15
Cons)
Require to bridge a gap between Indonesia’s infrastructure budget and actual
I do esia’s i f ast u tu e spe di g to GDP atio is o e of the lo est a o g othe A“EAN ou t ies
The new government show its commitment to increase its budget for infrastructure. The planned government
i f ast u tu e spe d i ease 9% i the
6 udget o the p e ious ea ’s pla ed spe d. Ho e e , the e has ee a
huge gap between the revised state budget and the actual over the past four years.
Share of Infrastructure Spending to GDP, ASEAN (2014)
Government Spending on Infrastructure (2012-17)
(Trillion IDR)
450
9.0%
Revised State Budget
7.7%
8.0%
400
806
Actual
350
7.0%
300
6.0%
1,845
250
5.0%
4.0%
3.2%
1,107
3.0%
2.4%
2.0%
200
3.6%
100
1,198
841
Singapore Philippines
3,561
50
0.0%
Indonesia
6,758
150
2.5%
2.0%
1.0%
470
Malaysia
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Thailand
Vietnam
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
16
Cons) Indonesia ranks 63rd in LPI /2016
Need to improve in each logistics indicator
Logistics Performance Indicators: LPI Results (2016)
Country
LPI
Rank
LPI
Score
Customs
Rank
Infrastructure
Rank
International
Shipments
Rank
8
1
4
66
5
3
9
11
2
19
14
13
21
12
32
39
470
38
71
50
62
60
3,561
52
144
148
Logistics Quality
and Competence
Rank
1
10
2
3
5
6
4
7
11
8
14
12
17
27
35
32
49
55
62
93
77
89
119
144
1
4.23
2
1
Germany
2
4.22
9
4
Luxembourg
3
4.20
8
3
Sweden
4
4.19
3
2
Netherlands
5
4.14
1
6
Singapore
6
4.11
13
14
Belgium
7
4.10
15
12
Austria
8
4.07
5
5
UK
9
4.07
7
10
Hon Kong
10
3.99
16
8
US
11
3.99
10
7
Switzerland
12
3.97
11
11
Japan
19
3.79
22
18
Australia
27
3.66
31
23
China
1,845
32
3.43
40
33
Malaysia
35
3.42
38
36
India
45
3.26
46
46
Thailand
63
2.98
69
73
Indonesia
1,107
64
2.98
64
70
Vietnam
70
2.87
57
66
Bunei
71
2.86
78
82
Philippines
73
2.80
99
Cambodia
1,198 77
113
2.46
96
105
Myanmar
841
152
2.07
155
155
Lao PDR
The international LPI analyzes countries in six components :
• The effi ie
of usto s a d o de lea a e Custo s
• The ualit of t ade a d t a spo t i f ast u tu e I f ast u tu e
• The ease of a a gi g o petiti el p i ed ship e ts I te atio al ship e ts, Ease of a a gi g ship e ts
• The competence and quality of logistics services-t u ki g, fo a di g, a d usto s oke age “e i e ualit , Qualit of logisti s se i es
• The a ilit to t a k a d t a e o sig
e ts T a ki g a d t a i g
• The f e ue
ith hi h ship e ts ea h o sig ees ithi s heduled o e pe ted deli e ti es Ti eli ess
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Tracking and
Tracing
Rank
3
6
1
6
10
4
2
7
14
806
5
12
13
19
28
36
33
50 6,758
51
75
68
73
81
94
156
Timeliness
Rank
2
1
3
5
6
4
7
8
9
11
14
15
21
31
47
42
52
62
56
84
70
73
112
133
17
(Reference)
Lack of Road Network Connectivity
The result of poor connectivity in Indonesia causes a longer lead time and an insufficient supply chain.
The density of road network has been staying at around 0.3 kilometers per km2 of land over the past 5 years.
Density of Road Network
(2011-2015)
(kilometers per km2 of land)
6.0
4.9
4.8
5.0
4.9
5.0
4.9
806
4.0
1,845
3.0
470
6,758
1,107
2.0
3,561
1.0
841
0.3
1,198
0.7 0.7
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.7 0.7
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.7 0.7
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.7 0.7
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
2011
2012
Myanmar
Indonesia
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2013
Thailand
Malaysia
2014
Vietnam
Philippines
2015
Singapore
18
(Reference)
Undeveloped Infrastructure (Unpaved Roads)
The weak infrastructure and unpaved road will slow down the growth of logistics industry.
The proportion of paved roads has been staying at around 57% of total road network in Indonesia over the past 5 years.
Proportion of Paved Roads
(2011-2015)
(kilometers per km2 of land)
98.5 100.0
100.0
98.5 100.0
98.5 100.0
98.5 100.0
98.5 100.0
90.0
80.9
78.1
80.0
77.2
76.9
76.6
806
70.0
57.0
60.0
56.8
52.7
46.6
50.0
56.7
52.2
45.7
56.6
52.0
45.4
51.9
45.0
44.8
470
40.0
30.0
56.7
52.1
31.4
30.8
30.1
29.3
28.4
20.0
10.0
0.0
2011
2012
Philippines
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Myanmar
2013
Vietnam
Indonesia
2014
Malaysia
Thailand
2015
Singapore
19
Member of :
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