Analisis Pengaruh Permintaan dan Penawaran Beras di Kota Medan
Lampiran 1
TABULASI DATA VARIABEL PERTAHUN
Kuantitas Beras
dalam Kg.
No
Tahun
(P)
PDRB
dalam Rp.
(Y)
Jumlah
Penduduk
dalam Jiwa.
(N)
ICH Kota
Medan
dalam mm.
(W)
Harga
dalam Rp.
(Qd=Qs)
1
1997
182.306.688
1.134
7.031.631
1.899.028
1.358
2
1998
182.502.432
2.290
9.737.646
1.901.067
2.100
3
1999
182.640.000
2.859
10.922.094
1.902.500
2.584
4
2000
182.810.208
2.693
13.958.607
1.904.273
1.969
5
2001
184.945.920
2.850
17.145.664
1.926.520
2.843
6
2002
188.532.672
3.324
19.660.543
1.963.882
1.733
7
2003
191.385.792
3.309
22.542.021
1.993.602
2.676
8
2004
192.589.632
3.302
33.115.347
2.006.142
2.291
9
2005
195.473.760
3.907
42.792.450
2.036.185
2.154
10
2006
198.459.648
4.885
48.849.947
2.067.288
2.707
11
2007
199.982.976
5.586
55.455.549
2.083.156
2.623
12
2008
201.802.080
5.989
65.277.871
2.102.105
2.328
13
2009
203.621.088
6.345
72.630.208
2.121.053
2.494
14
2010
204.074.112
6.925
83.315.016
2.125.772
1.776
15
2011
208.629.504
8.250
93.462.489
2.173.224
2.599
16
2012
203.789.184
8.584
105.110.723
2.122.804
2.294
17
2013
205.009.536
9.667
119.715.482
2.135.536
1.989
18
2014
215.750.400
10.208
137.074.227
2.247.400
1.980
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2
•
Hasil Persamaan Simultan Pengaruh Harga Beras, PDRB Perkapita dan
Jumlah Penduduk terhadap Permintaan Beras di Kota Medan
Dependent Variable: QD
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/15 Time: 08:41
Sample: 1997 2014
Included observations: 18
Variable
Coefficient
C
4067061.
P
-309.6961
Y
25.65901
N
94.12114
R-squared
0.999755
Adjusted R-squared
0.999703
S.E. of regression
168450.9
Sum squared resid
3.97E+11
Log likelihood
-239.8983
F-statistic
19058.73
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
Std. Error
t-Statistic
2218595.
1.833170
43.04323
-7.195002
2.002106
12.81601
1.189690
79.11398
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
Prob.
0.0081
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
1.95E+08
9770341.
27.09981
27.29767
27.12709
1.133400
Estimation Equation :
==================
Estimation Coefficient :
==================
Qd = 4067061 – 309,6961P + 25,65901Y + 94,12114N
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3
•
Hasil Persamaan Simultan Pengaruh Harga Beras, Jumlah Penduduk dan
Indek Curah Hujan terhadap Penawaran Beras di Kota Medan
Dependent Variable: QS
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/15 Time: 19:21
Sample: 1997 2014
Included observations: 18
Variable
Coefficient
C
-1.350808
P
3768.859
N
195.2733
W
-12496.69
R-squared
0.933018
Adjusted R-squared
0.918665
S.E. of regression
8813386.
Sum squared resid
1.09E+15
Log likelihood
-311.1311
F-statistic
65.00387
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
Std. Error
t-Statistic
1.08E+08 -1.253147
2205.237
1.709049
58.50361
3.337799
5386.905 -2.319827
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
Prob.
0.2307
0.0095
0.0049
0.0360
2.53E+08
30903206
35.01457
35.21243
35.04185
1.325879
Estimation Equation :
==================
Estimation Coefficient :
==================
Qs = -1,350808 + 3768,859P + 195,2733N - 12496.69W
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4
•
Hasil Persamaan Simultan Pengaruh PDRB Perkapita dan Indeks Curah
Hujan terhadap Harga Beras di Kota Medan
Dependent Variable: P
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/15 Time: 08:29
Sample: 1997 2014
Included observations: 18
Variable
Coefficient
C
4500.957
Y
0.009288
W
0.075868
R-squared
0.719808
Adjusted R-squared
0.682449
S.E. of regression
4.90E-12
Sum squared resid
3.60E-22
Log likelihood
444.8530
F-statistic
4.87E+28
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
Std. Error
t-Statistic
6.98E-12
6.45E+14
2.98E-17
3.12E+14
2.97E-15
2.55E+13
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
Prob.
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
5117.056
370.8770
-49.09477
-48.94638
-49.07431
2.224603
Estimation Equation :
==================
P = Π 0 + Π 1Y + Π 2W + U
Estimation Coefficient :
==================
P = 4500,957 + 0,009288Y + 0,075868W
Universitas Sumatera Utara
TABULASI DATA VARIABEL PERTAHUN
Kuantitas Beras
dalam Kg.
No
Tahun
(P)
PDRB
dalam Rp.
(Y)
Jumlah
Penduduk
dalam Jiwa.
(N)
ICH Kota
Medan
dalam mm.
(W)
Harga
dalam Rp.
(Qd=Qs)
1
1997
182.306.688
1.134
7.031.631
1.899.028
1.358
2
1998
182.502.432
2.290
9.737.646
1.901.067
2.100
3
1999
182.640.000
2.859
10.922.094
1.902.500
2.584
4
2000
182.810.208
2.693
13.958.607
1.904.273
1.969
5
2001
184.945.920
2.850
17.145.664
1.926.520
2.843
6
2002
188.532.672
3.324
19.660.543
1.963.882
1.733
7
2003
191.385.792
3.309
22.542.021
1.993.602
2.676
8
2004
192.589.632
3.302
33.115.347
2.006.142
2.291
9
2005
195.473.760
3.907
42.792.450
2.036.185
2.154
10
2006
198.459.648
4.885
48.849.947
2.067.288
2.707
11
2007
199.982.976
5.586
55.455.549
2.083.156
2.623
12
2008
201.802.080
5.989
65.277.871
2.102.105
2.328
13
2009
203.621.088
6.345
72.630.208
2.121.053
2.494
14
2010
204.074.112
6.925
83.315.016
2.125.772
1.776
15
2011
208.629.504
8.250
93.462.489
2.173.224
2.599
16
2012
203.789.184
8.584
105.110.723
2.122.804
2.294
17
2013
205.009.536
9.667
119.715.482
2.135.536
1.989
18
2014
215.750.400
10.208
137.074.227
2.247.400
1.980
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2
•
Hasil Persamaan Simultan Pengaruh Harga Beras, PDRB Perkapita dan
Jumlah Penduduk terhadap Permintaan Beras di Kota Medan
Dependent Variable: QD
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/15 Time: 08:41
Sample: 1997 2014
Included observations: 18
Variable
Coefficient
C
4067061.
P
-309.6961
Y
25.65901
N
94.12114
R-squared
0.999755
Adjusted R-squared
0.999703
S.E. of regression
168450.9
Sum squared resid
3.97E+11
Log likelihood
-239.8983
F-statistic
19058.73
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
Std. Error
t-Statistic
2218595.
1.833170
43.04323
-7.195002
2.002106
12.81601
1.189690
79.11398
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
Prob.
0.0081
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
1.95E+08
9770341.
27.09981
27.29767
27.12709
1.133400
Estimation Equation :
==================
Estimation Coefficient :
==================
Qd = 4067061 – 309,6961P + 25,65901Y + 94,12114N
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3
•
Hasil Persamaan Simultan Pengaruh Harga Beras, Jumlah Penduduk dan
Indek Curah Hujan terhadap Penawaran Beras di Kota Medan
Dependent Variable: QS
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/15 Time: 19:21
Sample: 1997 2014
Included observations: 18
Variable
Coefficient
C
-1.350808
P
3768.859
N
195.2733
W
-12496.69
R-squared
0.933018
Adjusted R-squared
0.918665
S.E. of regression
8813386.
Sum squared resid
1.09E+15
Log likelihood
-311.1311
F-statistic
65.00387
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
Std. Error
t-Statistic
1.08E+08 -1.253147
2205.237
1.709049
58.50361
3.337799
5386.905 -2.319827
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
Prob.
0.2307
0.0095
0.0049
0.0360
2.53E+08
30903206
35.01457
35.21243
35.04185
1.325879
Estimation Equation :
==================
Estimation Coefficient :
==================
Qs = -1,350808 + 3768,859P + 195,2733N - 12496.69W
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4
•
Hasil Persamaan Simultan Pengaruh PDRB Perkapita dan Indeks Curah
Hujan terhadap Harga Beras di Kota Medan
Dependent Variable: P
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/15 Time: 08:29
Sample: 1997 2014
Included observations: 18
Variable
Coefficient
C
4500.957
Y
0.009288
W
0.075868
R-squared
0.719808
Adjusted R-squared
0.682449
S.E. of regression
4.90E-12
Sum squared resid
3.60E-22
Log likelihood
444.8530
F-statistic
4.87E+28
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000000
Std. Error
t-Statistic
6.98E-12
6.45E+14
2.98E-17
3.12E+14
2.97E-15
2.55E+13
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
Prob.
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
5117.056
370.8770
-49.09477
-48.94638
-49.07431
2.224603
Estimation Equation :
==================
P = Π 0 + Π 1Y + Π 2W + U
Estimation Coefficient :
==================
P = 4500,957 + 0,009288Y + 0,075868W
Universitas Sumatera Utara