Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk
- 15.6%
27.5% 47.8% 32.7% 32.9%
Revenue 6,603 10,347 8,406 8,851
Revenue growth 6.3% 56.7%
EBITDA 2,677 5,374 3,759 4,039 Net profit 1,815 4,942 2,747 2,913 EPS (IDR) 94 257 143 151
EPS growth
BVPS (IDR) 1,265 1,517 1,660 1,811 EBITDA margin
40.5% 51.9% 44.7% 45.6%
Net Profit Margin
ROE
Target Harga Rp1.850 Kami menggunakan estimasi discount to RNAV sebesar 57,0% (rata-rata 3 tahun terakhir) sebagai basis metode valuasi. Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/E 2018E sebesar 13,0x (vs 12,4x saat ini).
7.8% 18.5% 9.0% 8.7%
ROA
4.9% 11.7% 5.8% 5.7%
ROIC 7.8% 14.3% 8.1% 7.9% P/E 18.6x 6.9x 12.4x 11.7x P/BV 1.4x 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x EV/EBITDA 15.3x 7.5x 11.3x 11.3x DPS (IDR)
5.0
4.3
4.3
2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Untuk mengimbangi kondisi properti saat ini, BSDE memanfaatkan tren positif okupasi perkantoran untuk memperkuat pendapatan berulang. BSDE mengakuisisi beberapa lantai MSIG Tower dan Bakrie Tower pada akhir 2017 dan awal 2018. Pendapatan sewa pada 4Q17 tumbuh 20%, dan kami memprediksikan pertumbuhan pendapatan berulang mencapai 36% pada FY2018.
Memperkuat Pendapatan Berulang Pada 2018, target marketing sales BSDE flat dibandingkan tahun lalu di angka Rp7,2 triliun. Penjualan properti yang cenderung melambat memasuki tahun politik dan daya beli properti, khususnya segmen menengah-atas yang belum pulih, menjadi tantangan bagi BSDE pada 2018.
- 62 21 797 6202, ext:114 michael@nhsec.co.id
- - 44.4% 6.0%
- 3.5%
Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer Company Report | Mar 21, 2018 Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE) Tantangan Stagnasi Kelas Menengah Atas Hold Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 1,850 Consensus Price (IDR) 2,193 TP to Consensus Price
vs. Last Price +4.5% Shares data
Last Price (IDR) 1,770 Price date as of Mar 19, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 1,935 / 1,560 Free float 39.0% Outstanding sh.(mn) 19,247 Market Cap (IDR bn) 33,297 Market Cap (USD mn) 2,419 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)
19.22 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)
34.31 Foreign Ownership 51.3%
Property Real Estate Owner & Developer Bloomberg BSDE.IJ Reuters BSDE.JK Michael Tjahjadi
Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
Share Price Performance YTD
1M
3M
12M
Abs. Ret. 4.1% -2.7% 2.9%
Rel. Ret. 5.2% 3.2% 0.9% -17.2%
Tercapainya Marketing Sales karena Faktor Temporer Pada FY 2017, BSDE berhasil mencatatkan penjualan sebesar Rp10,4 triliun (+67% y-y), dan laba bersih Rp4,9 triliun (+172% y-y). Target marketing sales pun tercapai dengan nilai Rp7,23 triliun (+16% y-y) pada 2017.
Namun, tercapainya marketing sales didorong oleh penjualan lahan sebesar Rp3,1 triliun yang naik drastis dari tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp1,25 triliun. Secara tidak langsung, hal ini menunjukkan turunnya performa penjualan produk residensial meskipun BSDE telah menjalankan program marketing seperti price lock.
- - 18.8% 5.3%
- - 15.2% 172.3%
3.6 Dividend yield 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sekilas tentang BSDE BSDE merupakan salah satu perusahaan pengembang properti terbesar di Indonesia, dengan proyek andalan: kota mandiri BSD City. BSDE adalah salah satu anak usaha dari Sinar Mas Group, salah satu perusahaan konglomerat terbesar di Indonesia. Proyek- proyek yang dikembangkan meliputi properti perumahan, bisnis dan komersial yang sering dikemas dengan konsep kota mandiri di berbagai kota utama di Indonesia.
Diantara pengembang properti lainnya, BSDE memiliki persediaan tanah kedua terbesar, yang mencakup hampir 4.000 hektar. Selama dua tahun terakhir, BSDE menggencarkan promosinya melalui program Price Amnesty dan Price Lock. Program-program tersebut menawarkan pengurangan harga berupa diskon, atau voucher belanja, maupun hadiah- hadiah yang menarik.
Industri Pengembang Properti Indonesia di ASEAN Indonesia merupakan negara terluas yang memiliki persediaan tanah dan jumlah penduduk terbanyak di ASEAN. Hal tersebut menjadikan Indonesia sebagai lokasi yang baik bagi bisnis pengembang properti. Pengembang properti Indonesia memiliki persediaan tanah yang lebih besar daripada pengembang di negara ASEAN. Seperti BKSL, mempunyai persediaan lahan 14.666 hektar dan BSDE 3.966 hektar.
Sektor properti di Indonesia dan Filipina menjadi yang paling bersaing di antara negara ASEAN. Pengembang-pengembang properti di negara tersebut mencatatkan gross margin yang lebih baik walaupun mempunyai total aset yang lebih rendah dari negara- negara lainnya.
ASEAN Property Developer Market Cap Total Asset Sales Gross Operating Net Profit Dividend Company ROE P/E (USD mn) (USD mn) Growth Margin Margin Growth Yield
BSDE 2,427 3,382 56.71% 73.4% 48.9% 172.3% 18.5% 6.9x 0.2% PWON 2,205 1,527 4.67% 57% 46.0% 26.5% 19.6% 17.0x 0.7% CTRA 1,619 2,147 10.31% 49% 27.5% 0.6% 8.7% 22.3x 0.4%
- SMRA 975 1,537 4.01% 48% 26.1% 254.0% 6.1% 35.9x 0.5%
- Singapore
Capitaland Ltd 11,811 45,972 12.23% 40% 47% 30.3% 8.6% 10.1x 2.7%
- Malaysia
- SP Setia Bhd 2,965 6,826 8.82% 33% 22% 5.2% 8.7% 13.3x 5.0%
IOI Properties Group Bhd 2,343 7,823 38.36% 44% 32% 27.7% 4.7% 11.2x 3.6%
- Thailand
Land & Houses PUB Co Ltd 4,211 3,362 16.76% 34% 30% 21.4% 21.6% 12.6x 6.4% WHA Corp Ltd 1,836 2,260 46.72% 47% 39% 12.7% 14.0% 18.0x 5.1%
- Philippines
Megaworld Corp 2,884 5,619 4.84% 59% 39% 11.1% 9.4% 12.0x 1.2% Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
Operational Performance Quarterly Sales (IDR bn) | 1Q15 - 4Q17 Marketing Sales (IDR bn) | 1Q15 - 4Q17
Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research
Annual Sales | 2014 - 2017 Annual Net Profit | 2014 - 2017
Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research
Gross, EBIT & Net Margin | 2014 - 2017 Sales Breakdown | 4Q17
Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research
Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 3 years Discount to NAV band | Last 3 years
Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research
Rating and target price Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus
03/21/2018 Hold 1,850 1,770 2,193 +4.5% 15.6%
- Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
Closing and Target Price Analyst Coverage Rating
Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings
1. Period: End of year target price
2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication : Greater than +15%
Buy : -15% to +15% Hold : Less than -15% Sell
Summary of Financials
DISCLAIMER
INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET
This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This
report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling
offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information here is obtained
from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees,
and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person
as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for
errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia BSDE Summary Last Price (IDR) 1,770Target Price (IDR) 1,850 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Rating: Hold ROE 7.8% 18.5% 9.0% 8.7% ROA 4.9% 11.7% 5.8% 5.7% ROIC 7.8% 14.3% 8.1% 7.9% EBITDA/Equi ty 11.5% 20.1% 12.3% 12.1%In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E EBITDA/As s ets 7.2% 12.8% 7.9% 7.9%
Sales 6,603 10,347 8,406 8,851 Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn) 96 83 83 70 Growth (% y/y) 6.3% 56.7% -18.8% 5.3% Di vi dend Yi el d (%) 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%Cos t of Revenue (1,882) (2,757) (2,348) (2,433) Pa yout Ra ti o (%) 5% 2% 3% 2%
Gross Profit 4,721 7,590 6,059 6,418 DER 31% 31% 31% 31%
Gross Margin 71.5% 73.4% 72.1% 72.5% Net Gea ri ng 53% 48% 46% 44%
Opera ti ng Expens es (2,276) (2,528) (2,654) (2,779) LT Debt to Equi ty 27% 24% 25% 25%
EBIT 2,445 5,062 3,405 3,639 Ca pi ta l i za ti on Ra ti o 24% 24% 24% 24%
EBIT Margin 37.0% 48.9% 40.5% 41.1% Equi ty Ra ti o 64% 64% 65% 67%
Depreci a ti on 232 312 354 400 Debt Ra ti o 20% 20% 20% 21%
EBITDA 2,677 5,374 3,759 4,039 Fi na nci a l Levera ge 160% 157% 156% 152%
EBITDA Margin 40.5% 51.9% 44.7% 45.6% Current Ra ti o 294% 237% 251% 270%
Interes t Expens es (638) (549) (652) (717) Qui ck Ra ti o 82% 93% 82% 60%
EBT 2,086 5,228 3,108 3,296 Ca s h Ra ti o 75% 87% 74% 51%
Income Ta x (29) (39) (140) (149) Ca s h Convers i on Cycl e 1,316 898 1,140 1,267
Mi nori ty Interes t (241) (246) (221) (235) Pa r Va l ue (IDR) 100 100 100 100
Net Profit 1,815 4,942 2,747 2,913 Tota l Sha res (mn) 19,247 19,247 19,247 19,247
Growth (% y/y) -15.2% 172.3% -44.4% 6.0% Sha re Pri ce (IDR) 1,755 1,770 1,770 1,770
Net Profit Margin 27.5% 47.8% 32.7% 32.9% Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn) 33.8 34.1 34.1 34.1 In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12ECa s h 4,181 6,557 5,468 3,272 Pri ce /Ea rni ngs 18.6x 6.9x 12.4x 11.7x
Recei va bl es 401 490 586 594 Pri ce /Book Va l ue 1.4x 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x
Inventori es 7,444 7,915 8,449 8,696 Pri ce/Revenue 5.1x 3.3x 4.1x 3.8x
Total Current Assets 16,341 17,965 18,513 17,357 PE/EPS Growth -1.2x 0.0x -0.3x 1.9x
Net Fi xed As s ets 14,900 19,266 21,640 24,113 EV/EBITDA 15.3x 7.5x 11.3x 11.3x
Other Non Current As s ets 7,050 8,720 9,213 10,883 EV/EBIT 16.8x 8.0x 12.5x 12.6x
Total Assets 38,292 45,951 49,367 52,353 EV (IDR bn) 41,017 40,443 42,519 45,683
Pa ya bl es 261 1,768 226 351 Revenue CAGR (3-Yr) 4.8% 22.6% 10.6% 10.3%
ST Debt 1,121 2,051 2,026 2,206 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) -12.3% 9.0% 8.7% 17.1%
Other Current Li a b. 4,184 3,751 5,121 3,867 Ba s i c EPS (IDR) 94 257 143 151 LT Debt 6,527 7,027 7,956 8,661 Di l uted EPS (IDR) 94 257 143 151Other Non Current Li a b. 1,846 2,158 2,095 2,407 BVPS (IDR) 1,265 1,517 1,660 1,811
Total Liabilities 13,939 16,754 17,424 17,491 Revenue PS (IDR) 343 538 437 460
Shareholders' Equity 24,353 29,197 31,943 34,861 DPS (IDR) 5 4 4 Net Income 1,796 4,920 2,747 2,913 DCF (IDR bn) 4 In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12EDeprec & Amorti za ti on 232 312 354 400 NOPAT 2,411 5,024 3,252 3,475
Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l (2,637) (625) (1,809) (2,169) +Depr./Amor. 232 312 354 400
CFO (610) 4,607 1,292 1,144 -CAPEX (126) (142) (2,728) (2,872)
Ca pex (126) (142) (2,728) (2,872) -Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p. (2,637) (625) (1,809) (2,169)
CFI (1,467) (3,520) (3,284) (4,230) (Unl evered) FCFF (121) 4,569 (931) (1,166)
Di vi dends Pa i d - (96) (83) (83) WACCNet Borrowi ng (PMT) (466) 1,502 903 885 Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.) 10.6% 8.9% 9.4% 9.4%
CFF (375) 1,157 903 891 Cos t of Equi ty (COE) 10.5% 11.7% 12.3% 12.3%
Net Changes in Cash (2,451) 2,244 (1,090) (2,196) WACC (%) 10.5% 11.1% 11.6% 11.6%
RIM Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%) -2.3% 8.6% -2.9% -3.2% Res i dua l Income (IDR bn) (507) 2,096 (844) (1,015)By Geography % Shareholders % Equi ty Cha rge (IDR bn) 2,322 2,846 3,591 3,928
Indones i a 48.7 PT Pa ra ga Arta mi da 26.6 EVA Uni ted Sta tes 43.7 PT Eka centra Us a ha ma ju 25.0 Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn) 30,022 32,001 38,275 41,924 Luxembourg 2.0 PT Serea s i Ni a ga Sa kti 3.1 ROIC-WACC (%) -2.5% 4.6% -3.1% -3.3% Norwa y 1.7 PT Si ma s Tungga l Centre 2.0 EVA (IDR bn) (751) 1,471 (1,205) (1,388)CASH FLOW STATEMENT DCF, RIM & EVA OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY March 19, 2018 Dec 2018 Analyst: Michael Tjahjadi