2. Environmental Impacts Food Security
Global Environmental Change-
Tofael Ahamed Associate Professor Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences
Agriculture and
Sustainability for Food
SecurityFood Security
Cyclones: Cyclone Phalin October 2013
December 2013 Cairo, Egypt
Jerusalem December 2013
Vietnam
December 2013
Global Environmental Change
Changes in the biogeophysical environment caused or strongly infuenced by human activities
Land cover & soils
Atmospheric composition
Climate variability & means
Water availability & quality
Nitrogen availability & cycling
Biodiversity
Sea currents & salinity
Sea level Global Environmental Change
Examples of human activities leading to GEC
Deforestation
Fossil fuel consumption
Urbanisation
Land reclamation
Agricultural intensification
Freshwater extraction
Fisheries overexploitation
Waste production Global GHG Emission Sources
Climate Change Estimate
Climate Change Impacts on Grain
Yields Global productionCereal production e
- 2
as c ce
- 4
en er ef r
- 6
m ro f ce
- 8
n re fe if
- 10
d %
- 12 A1 A2 B1 B2
world Percentage change in average
Crop Topt, °C Tmax, °C Yield at Topt, t/ha Yield at 28 °C, t/ha Yield at 32°C t/ha % decrease (28 to 32 °C) Rice
2.87
6.95
11.75
12.24
35
26
20 Grain
2.58
3.22
3.38
40
25
1.39 0.00 100 Peanut
32
25
22
10 Dry bean
3.06
3.41
3.41
39
28
54 Soybean
2.93
6.31
7.55
36
41 Crop Productivity: Temperature Efects Land Use for Agriculture
Harvested land in world increased by 24% 1961 to 2003 to 1.2 billion ha.
Agricultural conversion to croplands and managed pastures has affected some 3.3 billion ha—roughly 26% of the land area.
Agriculture has displaced one-third of temperate and tropical forests and one- quarter of natural grasslands. Water Use in Agriculture
About 70% of global freshwater withdrawal is for agriculture
Compared to 20% for industry and 10% for municipalities
However, 55% of the gross value of crop production grown under rainfed agriculture on 72% of harvested land. Most Important Food Crops Globally
Rice + wheat+ Maize = 56% Climate Change Impacts- Productivity
Sustainability & Sustainable Agriculture
Concept and Scopes with Food Secuirty Sustainability and Sustainable Development
Sustainability
Maximizing the net benefits of economic
development subject to maintain the services and quality of natural resources over the time (Pearce and Turner 1990) Environmental Sustainability Indicators (ESI)
ESI is single number derived from a list of indicators that are each given the same weight
Total Productivity Factor (TFP)
TFP attempts to measure an efficiency of production by including of all of the costs
Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) Food System & Security
Food Security, Concept,
Dimension Food SecurityA person, household or community , nation or region is food secure when all members at all times have physical and economic
access to buy, produce, obtain or consume
sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for a healthy and active life.
(World Food Summit 1996)
Food System- Concept
Food System ACTIVITIES
Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology, … Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, … Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, … Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, …
Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to: Social Welfare
- Income
Welfare
- Employment
- Ecosystem
- Wealth
stocks & flows
- Social capital
- Ecosy
•Nutritional Value •Affordability
- Political capital
services
•Social Value •Allocation
- Human cap
- Access to
•Food Safety •Preference
natural capital
- Production
Measures the ability of consumers to purchase
food , their vulnerability to price shocks, and thepresence of programes and policies to support
consumers when shocks occur. Food consumption as a share of household expenditure
Proportion of population under global poverty line
Gross domestic product per capita
Agricultural import tariffs
Availability
Measures the sufficiency of the national
food supply , the risk of supply disruption,
national capacity to disseminate food, and research efforts to expand agricultural output
Sufficiency of supply
Public expenditure on agricultural R&D
Agricultural infrastructure
Volatility of agricultural production
Political instability Quality and Safety
Measures the variety and nutritional quality of average diets, as well as the safety of food.
Diet diversification
Nutritional standards
Micronutrient availability
Protein quality
Food safety Food Security Dimension - Availability
Food Security Dimension - Access
Millions of persons in poverty (US$1/day)
1990 1999 2015 600 500 400 300 200 100 Food Insecurity- Negative Impact
Food Security- Interacting Stressors Multiple Exposure: Food insecurity arises from overlapping and interacting stressors
Food Security-How to Meet the Challenges of Food Security
Infuencing Factors Sustainable intensifcation
Producing more food from the same area of land while reducing the environmental impacts requires what has been called “sustainable intensification”,
we used many ways to reduce negative externalities, agricultural land and water bodies used for aquaculture and fisheries can be managed in ways specifically designed to reduce negative impacts on
Reducing Waste
Roughly 30 to 40% of food in both the developed and developing worlds is lost to waste, though the causes behind this are very Closing Yield Gap
There is wide geographic variation in crop and livestock productivity, across regions that experience similar climates.
The different between realized productivity and the best that can be achieved using current genetic material and available technologies and management is termed the “Yield Gap”
Developing climate adaptive/resilience
Changing diet
The conversion of plant in to animal mater
is about 10%
More people can be supported from same
amount of land if they are vegetarians.
One-third of global cereal production is fed
to animal, and the demand of meat and dairy increasing. Increased wealth of consumers everywhere, most recently in countries such as China
Expanding Aquaculture
Aquatic products provide 3 billion people with at least 15% of their animal protein intake. Crop Modeli ng for Yield Prediction
Changes in biophysical conditions
Changes in socioeconomic conditions in response to changes
in crop productivity (farmers’ income; markets and prices;
CO 2 CARBON DIOXIDE FERTILIZATION LONGER GROWING SEASONS INCREASED PRECIPITATION MORE FREQUENT DROUGHTS PESTS HEAT STRESS FASTER GROWING PERIODS INCREASED FLOODING AND SALINIZATION POSSIBLE BENEFITS POSSIBLE DRAWBACKS CO 2 CARBON DIOXIDE FERTILIZATION LONGER GROWING SEASONS INCREASED PRECIPITATION MORE FREQUENT DROUGHTS PESTS HEAT STRESS FASTER GROWING PERIODS INCREASED FLOODING AND SALINIZATION Crop Models Based on
Understanding of plants, soil, weather, management
Calculate Water
Growth, yield, fertilizer & water requirements, etc
Carbon Require
Nitrogen Information (inputs): weather, management, etc
Food Security Research
Food Security Model
Temperature Temperature
Solar Radiation Solar Radiation
Rainfall Rainfall
FOODPROD FOODPROD FOREX FOREX Supply Supply
House Hold Access Index House Hold Access Index
Demand Demand
GDPGRWTH
GDPGRWTH
National Food Self Resilience Index National Food Self Resilience IndexPerformance Index Performance Index
FOODINDEX FOODINDEX FOREXIND FOREXIND Yield
Food Prices
Methodologies… Satellite Time Series Data
( MODIS) Maximizing Baseline Production Survey GIS multi-stage
Primary systematic
Data sampling technique
Food
Linear
Security
Data Program
Mapping ming
ERDAS
Secondary
Imagine
Data Minimizing
FAO,UNDP
Risk
Food Security Research
Soilless Culture:Smart Indoor
Farming
Controllers and
Controllers and
wireless
wireless
communicator
communicator Arduino Integrated
pH and EC
Development
sensor
Environment
Temperature
(IDE) software
and humidity sensor Light intensity
2
1
sensor
2 c
1
5 m
8 Water level c
2 m
sensor
c c m
Circulated water
m
5
5
system
c m
5 Water
Ventilation
Controlled Environment for
Agriculture Sensor
LCD display
LCD display Block
Control Environment Environment Block Control Control
Grow light
Grow light
Light Temperature
Light Temperature
sensor sensor
sensor sensor
pH dozer CO sensor
pH dozer CO 2 2 sensor MICROCONTRO
Humidity sensor
Humidity sensor
Water pump
Water pump LLER Root Zone Root Zone
Ventilator/ Fog
Ventilator/ Fog Control Control
system
system
Moisture Water level
Moisture Water level
Aeration pump for
Aeration pump for
sensor sensor
sensor sensor
DO
DO
pH sensor EC
pH sensor EC
Humidifer
Humidifer
sensor
sensor
Dissolved oxygen
Dissolved oxygen
Bluetooth/ Wi-Fi
Bluetooth/ Wi-Fi
sensor
sensor
module
module
Cloud server Farming Data
All the generated data is stored in the cloud. Data can be accessed easily by the farmer/ feld
Survey Drone
Aerial drone use to survey the felds, mapping and soil variation.
Agricultural Machinery
Apply the right input, in the right amount, at the right place and at the right time
Satellites and Mobile Radio Antennas
Data collection hub
Weather Monitoring System
IoT in Agriculture
LULC Changes NDVI Map in Serang city of Indonesia.
Centralized Geodatabase
Surface temperature Land use/ cover NDVI
Panchromatic images Multispectral images
Urban planners Policy makers Remote Sensing Data
End Users Agricultural unions
Decision Support System
Spatial Modeling
RS RS GIS GIS GEODATABAS E GEODATABAS E Input Mode l Outp ut GIS Dataset
- Store - Retrieve - Edit/update
- Manage spatial data
ICT Tools Radio App
Website NDVI map Developed
NDVI Mapping Decision Support Systems
GIS Database Database of Asia Map
- Population - Road, land use parcels
- Soil types
- GPS points (Field survey data)
Suitability Map Suitable sites for rice production in northern part of Bangladesh.
- Site suitability analysis
- Land use change model
- Deforestation process
- Land degradation process
- Site selection
- Land use planning
- Policy making
- Precision farming
- Natural resources management
Precision Agronomics
Genetic potentials
Remote access to on- Agronomic decision
of crops for micro- board and optimization of with weather climatic machinery operation adaptation adaptability Variable rate planting HighSynergy resolution Variable rate irrigation Quality of data
Management mapping and Variable rate sensing fertilizer
Site and time-specifc Variable rate at feld level pesticides
(Agronomy is Local) Machine Targeting Optimizati Agronom on y Data Manageme nt Conclusions
Innovative Research Frame Works are Required to meet the
Challenges of Food Security: Site-specific solution which deal with micro climatic adaptation
Tolerance proof (water, drought) variety development
Access of food should go through logistics management
Utilization of food should be with value-added, capture value throughout the supply and value chain.
Food nutritional safety needs to be ensured throughout the critical control points of supply chain
Research Adaption Policy, Factors. Food Security Challenges
Crop Models
Yield Forecasting
Food Security Index (FSI) National Food Self Reliance Index (NRI)
References
Thank you very much for your time and