Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Permintaan dan Penawaran Kedelai Sumatera Utara

  

LAMPIRAN

Lampiran 1. Hasil Pengujian Normalitas Persamaan Permintaan Kedelai Provinsi Sumatera Utara

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  Series: Residuals Sample 1990S1 2013S2 Observations 48 Mean -3.56e-12 Median 603.3815 Maximum 4470.825 Minimum -5850.704 Std. Dev. 2203.304 Skewness -0.598641 Kurtosis 3.022975 Jarque-Bera 2.868027 Probability 0.238350

• 6000 -4000 -2000 2000 4000

Lampiran 2. Hasil Pengujian Normalitas Persamaan Penawaran Kedelai

  Sample 1990S1 2013S2 Observations 48

  8 Mean -6.11e-13 Median 7.822491

  6 Maximum 3418.329 Minimum -3944.846 Std. Dev. 1351.432

  4 Skewness -0.139930 Kurtosis 3.946023

  2 Jarque-Bera 1.946561 Probability 0.377841

• 4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 1000 2000 3000

Lampiran 3. Pengujian Autokorelasi Pada persamaan Permintaan Kedelai

  Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: Obs*R-squared 5.229022 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.0732 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 04/01/15 Time: 10:58 Sample: 1990S1 2013S2 Included observations: 48 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

  Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -119.4836 8817.627 -0.013551 0.9893 HKDSU -3.475060 7.923196 -0.438593 0.6632

  JPSU 247.3845 808.4837 0.305986 0.7611 PKP -0.501519 4.883297 -0.102701 0.9187

  RESID(-1) 0.308179 0.156454 1.969775 0.0555 RESID(-2) 0.084619 0.156211 0.541694 0.5909

  R-squared 0.108938 Mean dependent var -3.56E-12 Adjusted R-squared 0.002859 S.D. dependent var 2203.304 S.E. of regression 2200.152 Akaike info criterion 18.34691 Sum squared resid

  2.03E+08 Schwarz criterion 18.58081 Log likelihood -434.3258 Hannan-Quinn criter. 18.43530 F-statistic 1.026953 Durbin-Watson stat 1.924950 Prob(F-statistic) 0.414252

Lampiran 4. Pengujian Autokorelasi Pada persamaan Penawaran Kedelai

  Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: Obs*R-squared 2.478632 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.2896 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 04/01/15 Time: 10:59 Sample: 1990S1 2013S2 Included observations: 48 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

  Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -780.0466 2693.473 -0.289606 0.7735 HKDSU -1.569076 8.308618 -0.188849 0.8511

  HJG 5.058074 12.54936 0.403054 0.6890 LPKSU 0.017785 0.040658 0.437425 0.6640 RESID(-1) 0.112283 0.156478 0.717567 0.4770 RESID(-2) 0.213748 0.165384 1.292438 0.2033

  R-squared 0.051638 Mean dependent var -6.11E-13 Adjusted R-squared -0.061262 S.D. dependent var 1351.432 S.E. of regression 1392.212 Akaike info criterion 17.43164 Sum squared resid 81406726 Schwarz criterion 17.66554 Log likelihood -412.3595 Hannan-Quinn criter. 17.52004 F-statistic 0.457379 Durbin-Watson stat 1.993387 Prob(F-statistic) 0.805545

Lampiran 5. Hasil Regresi Harga riil Kedelai Sumatera Utara Terhadap

  Dependent Variable: HKDSU Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 04/01/15 Time: 10:30 Sample: 1990S1 2013S2 Included observations: 48 Instrument specification: JPSU PKP HJG LPKSU Constant added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C 740.2053 226.3508 3.270169 0.0021 JPSU -27.98682 26.05844 -1.074002 0.2885

  PKP 0.387303 0.129904 2.981465 0.0046 R-squared 0.327603 Mean dependent var 703.8125 Adjusted R-squared 0.297719 S.D. dependent var 88.67815 S.E. of regression 74.31428 Sum squared resid 248517.5 F-statistic 10.96237 Durbin-Watson stat 0.712461 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000132 Second-Stage SSR 248517.5 J-statistic 14.77066 Instrument rank

  5 Prob(J-statistic) 0.000620

Lampiran 6. Hasil Regresi Jumlah Penduduk Sumatera Utara Terhadap

  Dependent Variable: JPSU Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 04/01/15 Time: 10:31 Sample: 1990S1 2013S2 Included observations: 48 Instrument specification: JPSU PKP HJG LPKSU Constant added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C 9.808097 0.789979 12.41565 0.0000 PKP 0.005148 0.000516 9.984134 0.0000 HKDSU -0.002588 0.001479 -1.749419 0.0870

  R-squared 0.791073 Mean dependent var 11.94721 Adjusted R-squared 0.781788 S.D. dependent var 0.939220 S.E. of regression 0.438740 Sum squared resid 8.662166 F-statistic 88.09824 Durbin-Watson stat 0.511740 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 7.543824 J-statistic 39.19021 Instrument rank

  5 Prob(J-statistic) 0.000000

Lampiran 7. Hasil Regresi Pendapatan Perkapita Terhadap Harga riil

  Dependent Variable: PKP Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 04/01/15 Time: 10:31 Sample: 1990S1 2013S2 Included observations: 48 Instrument specification: JPSU PKP HJG LPKSU Constant added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -1579.167 174.4257 -9.053522 0.0000 JPSU 139.4282 17.33309 8.044048 0.0000 HKDSU 0.970057 0.247922 3.912756 0.0003

  R-squared 0.783374 Mean dependent var 769.3492 Adjusted R-squared 0.773746 S.D. dependent var 188.4058 S.E. of regression 89.61736 Sum squared resid 361407.2 F-statistic 91.14605 Durbin-Watson stat 0.657118 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 204310.4 J-statistic 25.43935 Instrument rank

  5 Prob(J-statistic) 0.000003

Lampiran 8. Hasil Regresi Harga riil Kedelai Sumatera Utara Terhadap

  Dependent Variable: HKDSU Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 04/01/15 Time: 10:31 Sample: 1990S1 2013S2 Included observations: 48 Instrument specification: JPSU PKP HJG LPKSU Constant added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C 225.5135 87.67544 2.572140 0.0135 HJG 1.349546 0.229478 5.880940 0.0000 LPKSU 0.002884 0.001466 1.967405 0.0553 R-squared 0.469939 Mean dependent var 703.8125 Adjusted R-squared 0.446381 S.D. dependent var 88.67815 S.E. of regression 65.98148 Sum squared resid 195910.0 F-statistic 19.94798 Durbin-Watson stat 0.901712 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001 Second-Stage SSR 195910.0 J-statistic 6.653204 Instrument rank

  5 Prob(J-statistic) 0.035915

Lampiran 9. Hasil Regresi Harga riil Jagung Sumatera Utara Terhadap

  Dependent Variable: HJG Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 04/01/15 Time: 10:31 Sample: 1990S1 2013S2 Included observations: 48 Instrument specification: JPSU PKP HJG LPKSU Constant added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -79.50703 72.59163 -1.095264 0.2792 LPKSU -0.002448 0.000757 -3.234987 0.0023

  HKDSU 0.621443 0.098138 6.332314 0.0000 R-squared 0.440357 Mean dependent var 330.6875 Adjusted R-squared 0.415484 S.D. dependent var 54.38952 S.E. of regression 41.58275 Sum squared resid 77810.65 F-statistic 36.34738 Durbin-Watson stat 1.025894 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 13337.94 J-statistic 7.713690 Instrument rank

  5 Prob(J-statistic) 0.021135

Lampiran 10. Hasil Regresi Luas Panen Kedelai Sumatera Utara Terhadap Sumatera Utara

  Dependent Variable: LPKSU Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 04/01/15 Time: 10:32 Sample: 1990S1 2013S2 Included observations: 48 Instrument specification: JPSU PKP HJG LPKSU Constant added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -61858.47 54946.60 -1.125793 0.2662 HJG -271.1703 98.67144 -2.748215 0.0086

  HJPSU 720.4838 355.3621 2.027464 0.0486 R-squared -3.739443 Mean dependent var 11103.10 Adjusted R-squared -3.950085 S.D. dependent var 8514.463 S.E. of regression 18943.65 Sum squared resid

  1.61E+10 F-statistic 3.979838 Durbin-Watson stat 1.235340 Prob(F-statistic) 0.025616 Second-Stage SSR

  5.51E+08 J-statistic 1.535112 Instrument rank

  5 Prob(J-statistic) 0.464146

Lampiran 11. Pengujian Sistem Persamaan Permintaan dan Penawaran

  System: SIST_PERS Estimation Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 04/01/15 Time: 10:56 Sample: 1990S1 2013S2 Included observations: 48 Total system (balanced) observations 96 Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C(1) -66508.25 9107.011 -7.302973 0.0000 C(2) -3.779211 7.973057 -0.473998 0.6367 C(3) 17.29344 5.037927 3.432649 0.0009 C(4) 6268.664 829.0893 7.560903 0.0000 C(5) -1415.216 2621.067 -0.539939 0.5906 C(6) 10.87757 8.206903 1.325417 0.1885 C(7) -16.23074 12.09407 -1.342041 0.1830 C(8) 0.963263 0.039027 24.68191 0.0000

  Determinant residual covariance

  8.14E+12 Equation: QD = C(1)+C(2)*HKDSU+C(3)*PKP+C(4)*JPSU Instruments: PKP JPSU HJG LPKSU C Observations: 48 R-squared 0.940604 Mean dependent var 19029.62 Adjusted R-squared 0.936554 S.D. dependent var 9040.558 S.E. of regression 2277.178 Sum squared resid

  2.28E+08 Durbin-Watson stat 1.365398 Equation: QS = C(5)+C(6)*HKDSU+C(7)*HJG+C(8)*LPKSU Instruments: PKP JPSU HJG LPKSU C Observations: 48 R-squared 0.975256 Mean dependent var 11568.46 Adjusted R-squared 0.973569 S.D. dependent var 8591.249 S.E. of regression 1396.744 Sum squared resid 85839312 Durbin-Watson stat 1.746741

Lampiran 12. Data Permintaan Harga Riil Kedelai, Harga Riil Jagung

  Permintaan

  a

  Harga Riil Kedelai

  b

  PDRB per Kapita Riil

  b

  Harga Riil Jagung

  b

  1990=100 1990=100 1990=100 (dalam Ton) (dalam rp) (dalam ribu) dalam Rp

  1990.I 5262 650 476 341 1990.II 4874 661 465 347 1991.I 5323 797 498 325 1991.II 6283 770 466 317 1992.I 8465 805 534 309 1992.II 8031 805 518 312 1993.I 8762 676 616 281 1993.II 8561 678 600 285 1994.I 9959 689 690 296 1994.II 8932 670 652 289 1995.I 8843 686 701 211 1995.II 13198 685 682 215 1996.I 11088 673 739 311 1996.II 15109 661 707 306 1997.I 17632 628 826 373 1997.II 14696 580 744 344 1998.I 18539 604 684 207 1998.II 18534 497 555 171 1999.I 15305 686 669 362 1999.II 18707 683 659 360 2000.I 14896 567 703 298 2000.II 16978 545 667 287 2001.I 13814 698 715 330 2001.II 16565 649 659 308

  a Ketahanan Pangan Sumatera Utara b

  Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 12. Lanjutan

  Permintaan

  a

  Harga Riil Kedelai

  b

  PDRB per Kapita Riil

  b

  Harga Riil Jagung

  b

  1990=100 1990=100 1990=100 (dalam Ton) (dalam rp) (dalam ribu) dalam Rp

  2002.I 19633 604 707 318 2002.II 18768 570 667 302 2003.I 20305 651 767 347 2003.II 19648 632 740 337 2004.I 17092 680 804 336 2004.II 16732 663 778 327 2005.I 18521 743 858 355 2005.II 20345 637 731 305 2006.I 23430 741 804 347 2006.II 23173 715 772 335 2007.I 28419 694 852 358 2007.II 23703 663 809 341 2008.I 21914 824 904 372 2008.II 25832 792 865 358 2009.I 30888 791 956 383 2009.II 31058 766 922 371 2010.I 29834 795 1026 369 2010.II 30062 764 982 354 2011.I 32123 847 1112 430 2011.II 32436 824 1078 418 2012.I 37995 807 1171 401 2012.II 36502 796 1150 396 2013.I 33236 892 1155 424 2013.II 33417 849 1097 404

  a Ketahanan Pangan Sumatera Utara b

  Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 13. Jumlah Penduduk, Penawaran dan Luas Areal Panen yang

  11.306 17991 16988 1997.I

  Sumber : Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara

  11.723 5841 5294

  11.723 4878 4709 2001.II

  11.514 7278 6349 2001.I

  11.514 5603 5764 2000.II

  11.955 13025 13878 2000.I

  11.955 15792 13293 1999.II

  11.754 21752 21414 1999.I

  11.754 22751 20828 1998.II

  11.463 20604 18557 1998.I

  11.463 18699 17972 1997.II

  Jumlah Penduduk Sumatera Utara Penawaran Luas Areal Panen

  (dalam juta) (dalam ton) (dalam ha) 1990.I

  11.145 23456 24426 1996.I

  11.145 26199 23841 1995.II

  10.981 26979 28156 1995.I

  10.981 29518 27570 1994.II

  10.813 28192 25985 1994.I

  10.813 24594 25399 1993.II

  10.685 22372 23115 1993.I

  10.685 21844 22529 1992.II

  10.455 20274 18860 1992.I

  10.455 15638 18275 1991.II

  10.256 15089 14705 1991.I

  10.256 13702 14559 1990.II

  11.306 17669 16403 1996.II

Lampiran 13. Lanjutan

  13.042 6462 5091 2009.I

  Sumber : Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara

  13.326 1613 1856

  13.326 1616 1270 2013.II

  13.215 2550 3030 2013.I

  13.215 2869 2445 2012.II

  13.104 5554 5999 2012.I

  13.104 5872 5414 2011.II

  12.982 5109 4197 2011.I

  12.982 4330 3612 2010.II

  13.248 6674 6040 2010.I

  13.248 7532 5454 2009.II

  Jumlah Penduduk Sumatera Utara Penawaran Luas Areal Panen

  (dalam juta) (dalam ton) (dalam ha) 2002.I

  12.834 2413 2166 2008.I

  12.834 1936 1581 2007.II

  12.643 3640 3448 2007.I

  12.643 3402 2863 2006.II

  12.327 6680 7186 2006.I

  12.327 9113 6601 2005.II

  12.123 7091 6146 2005.I

  12.123 5242 5560 2004.II

  11.992 5100 5248 2004.I

  11.992 5366 4662 2003.II

  11.847 5070 5145 2003.I

  11.847 5127 4560 2002.II

  13.042 5185 4506 2008.II