Pengaruh Pengeluaran Pemerintah, Investasi Dan Angkatan Kerja Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kabupaten Dairi
Lampiran 1 Data Penelitian
Pengeluaran
Angkatan
Investasi
Pemerintah
Kerja
1
2003
163.196.021.131,27
8.392.780
64991
2
2004
176.085.127.757,00
10.298.690
66013
3
2005
196.974.234.382,73
11.876.320
67835
4
2006
327.994.400.048,74
14.986.800
69221
5
2007
370.418.427.774,12
16.324.675
70774
6
2008
467.291.950.314,88
18.482.850
72113
7
2009
455.902.250.452,26
23.487.850
73838
8
2010
487.883.816.871,92
25.092.850
75543
9
2011
514.757.339.412,68
39.379.100
77263
Sumber : BPS (2011)
Q
PDRB
Pengeluaran Pemerintah
Angkatan Kerja
16408
2004 :1 379797,38
42812928193,09
16471
2004 :2 385138,22
43618497357,20
16535
2004 :3 390479,07
44424066521,30
16607
2004 :4 395819,91
45229635685,41
16788
2005:1 400763,14
47285204849,52
16902
2005 :2 405944,94
48590774013,63
17016
2005 :3 411126,74
49896343177,74
17129
2005 :4 416308,54
51201912341,84
17175
2006 : 1 419471,45
69715459481,00
17262
2006: 2 423845,69
77904219835,12
17349
2006 : 3 428219,93
86092980189,25
17435
2006 : 4 432594,17
94281740543,37
17548
2007 :1 439418,94
88627354344,28
17645
2007 :2 444773,39
91278856077,11
17742
2007 :3 450127,84
93930357809,95
17839
2007 :4 455482,29
96581859542,78
17903
008 :1 460091,09
107741094480,52
17987
2008 :2 465147,28
113795689999,32
2008 :3 470203,48
119850285158,12
18070
2008 :4 475259,67
125904880316,92
18154
2009 :1 481471,80
115043346975,19
18298
2009 :2 486990,37
114331490733,77
18406
2009 3 492508,94
113619634492,36
18514
2009 :4 498027,51
112907778250,94
18621
2010 :1 505115,55
118972682366,14
18726
2010 :2 511261,91
120971530267,37
18833
2010 :3 517408,27
122970378168,59
18939
2010 :4 523554,63
124969226069,82
19046
2011 :1 531436,73
126169942114,97
19155
2011 :2 538277,39
127849537273,77
19262
2011 :3 545118,05
129529132432,57
19369
2011 :4 551958,70
131208727591,37
19477
Sumber : BPS (2011)
No
Tahun
PDRB Harga
Konstan
1.465.781,05
1.551.234,58
1.634.143,37
1.704.131,24
1.789.802,45
1.870.701,52
1.958.998,63
2.057.340,36
2.166.790,87
Investasi
2395993,44
2515112,81
2634232,19
2753351,56
2821177,19
2919779,06
3018380,94
3116982,81
3455092,50
3649497,50
3843902,50
4038307,50
3955742,97
4039360,16
4122977,34
4206594,53
4418383,59
4553269,53
4688155,47
4823041,41
5402743,75
5715556,25
6028368,75
6341181,25
6122743,75
6223056,25
6323368,75
6423681,25
8505439,06
9398329,69
10291220,31
11184110,94
148
Lampiran 2 Hasil Regresi
Dependent Variable: LPDRB
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/18/12 Time: 21:44
Sample: 2004:1 2011:4
Included observations: 32
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
G
AK
INV
15.59927
1.83E-15
0.000113
2.19E-12
0.048860
5.92E-16
3.17E-06
7.46E-12
319.2662
3.095077
35.61648
0.293333
0.0000
0.0044
0.0000
0.7714
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.999314
0.999240
0.003044
0.000260
142.1534
0.834069
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
17.63914
0.110429
-8.634585
-8.451368
13586.86
0.000000
149
Lampiran 3 Uji Multikolinearitas
Dependent Variable: G
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/18/12 Time: 22:04
Sample: 2004:1 2011:4
Included observations: 32
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
AK
INV
-7.07E+13
4.65E+09
-6365.050
7.91E+12
4.94E+08
2018.918
-8.929186
9.415124
-3.152704
0.0000
0.0000
0.0037
0.914220
0.908304
9.55E+11
2.64E+25
-926.5378
0.422241
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
9.37E+12
3.15E+12
58.09611
58.23352
154.5367
0.000000
Dependent Variable: AK
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/18/12 Time: 22:05
Sample: 2004:1 2011:4
Included observations: 32
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INV
G
15393.83
1.97E-06
1.62E-10
100.7156
2.40E-07
1.72E-11
152.8445
8.194162
9.415124
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.965258
0.962862
178.2220
921129.5
-209.6880
0.474759
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
17894.09
924.8095
13.29300
13.43041
402.8626
0.000000
Dependent Variable: INV
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/18/12 Time: 22:05
Sample: 2004:1 2011:4
Included observations: 32
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
AK
G
-5.48E+09
355304.8
-4.01E-05
6.65E+08
43360.72
1.27E-05
-8.241891
8.194162
-3.152704
0.0000
0.0000
0.0037
0.895037
0.887798
75773887
1.67E+17
-624.4154
0.400279
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
5.00E+08
2.26E+08
39.21347
39.35088
123.6441
0.000000
150
Lampiran 4 Uji Autokorelasi
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
5.570413
Obs*R-squared 9.323834
Probability 0.059911
Probability 0.055578
Lampiran 5 Uji Normalitas
7
Series: Residuals
Sample 2004:1 2011:4
Observations 32
6
5
4
3
2
1
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
2.21E-15
0.000608
0.023530
-0.031069
0.014868
-0.303440
2.108337
Jarque-Bera
Probability
1.551154
0.460438
0
-0.02
0.00
0.02
GRAFIK PERKEMBANGAN VARIABEL
560
520
480
440
400
360
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
PDRB
151
140
120
100
80
60
40
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
09
10
11
G
12
10
8
6
4
2
04
05
06
07
08
I
20000
19500
19000
18500
18000
17500
17000
16500
16000
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
AK
152
Pengeluaran
Angkatan
Investasi
Pemerintah
Kerja
1
2003
163.196.021.131,27
8.392.780
64991
2
2004
176.085.127.757,00
10.298.690
66013
3
2005
196.974.234.382,73
11.876.320
67835
4
2006
327.994.400.048,74
14.986.800
69221
5
2007
370.418.427.774,12
16.324.675
70774
6
2008
467.291.950.314,88
18.482.850
72113
7
2009
455.902.250.452,26
23.487.850
73838
8
2010
487.883.816.871,92
25.092.850
75543
9
2011
514.757.339.412,68
39.379.100
77263
Sumber : BPS (2011)
Q
PDRB
Pengeluaran Pemerintah
Angkatan Kerja
16408
2004 :1 379797,38
42812928193,09
16471
2004 :2 385138,22
43618497357,20
16535
2004 :3 390479,07
44424066521,30
16607
2004 :4 395819,91
45229635685,41
16788
2005:1 400763,14
47285204849,52
16902
2005 :2 405944,94
48590774013,63
17016
2005 :3 411126,74
49896343177,74
17129
2005 :4 416308,54
51201912341,84
17175
2006 : 1 419471,45
69715459481,00
17262
2006: 2 423845,69
77904219835,12
17349
2006 : 3 428219,93
86092980189,25
17435
2006 : 4 432594,17
94281740543,37
17548
2007 :1 439418,94
88627354344,28
17645
2007 :2 444773,39
91278856077,11
17742
2007 :3 450127,84
93930357809,95
17839
2007 :4 455482,29
96581859542,78
17903
008 :1 460091,09
107741094480,52
17987
2008 :2 465147,28
113795689999,32
2008 :3 470203,48
119850285158,12
18070
2008 :4 475259,67
125904880316,92
18154
2009 :1 481471,80
115043346975,19
18298
2009 :2 486990,37
114331490733,77
18406
2009 3 492508,94
113619634492,36
18514
2009 :4 498027,51
112907778250,94
18621
2010 :1 505115,55
118972682366,14
18726
2010 :2 511261,91
120971530267,37
18833
2010 :3 517408,27
122970378168,59
18939
2010 :4 523554,63
124969226069,82
19046
2011 :1 531436,73
126169942114,97
19155
2011 :2 538277,39
127849537273,77
19262
2011 :3 545118,05
129529132432,57
19369
2011 :4 551958,70
131208727591,37
19477
Sumber : BPS (2011)
No
Tahun
PDRB Harga
Konstan
1.465.781,05
1.551.234,58
1.634.143,37
1.704.131,24
1.789.802,45
1.870.701,52
1.958.998,63
2.057.340,36
2.166.790,87
Investasi
2395993,44
2515112,81
2634232,19
2753351,56
2821177,19
2919779,06
3018380,94
3116982,81
3455092,50
3649497,50
3843902,50
4038307,50
3955742,97
4039360,16
4122977,34
4206594,53
4418383,59
4553269,53
4688155,47
4823041,41
5402743,75
5715556,25
6028368,75
6341181,25
6122743,75
6223056,25
6323368,75
6423681,25
8505439,06
9398329,69
10291220,31
11184110,94
148
Lampiran 2 Hasil Regresi
Dependent Variable: LPDRB
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/18/12 Time: 21:44
Sample: 2004:1 2011:4
Included observations: 32
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
G
AK
INV
15.59927
1.83E-15
0.000113
2.19E-12
0.048860
5.92E-16
3.17E-06
7.46E-12
319.2662
3.095077
35.61648
0.293333
0.0000
0.0044
0.0000
0.7714
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.999314
0.999240
0.003044
0.000260
142.1534
0.834069
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
17.63914
0.110429
-8.634585
-8.451368
13586.86
0.000000
149
Lampiran 3 Uji Multikolinearitas
Dependent Variable: G
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/18/12 Time: 22:04
Sample: 2004:1 2011:4
Included observations: 32
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
AK
INV
-7.07E+13
4.65E+09
-6365.050
7.91E+12
4.94E+08
2018.918
-8.929186
9.415124
-3.152704
0.0000
0.0000
0.0037
0.914220
0.908304
9.55E+11
2.64E+25
-926.5378
0.422241
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
9.37E+12
3.15E+12
58.09611
58.23352
154.5367
0.000000
Dependent Variable: AK
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/18/12 Time: 22:05
Sample: 2004:1 2011:4
Included observations: 32
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
INV
G
15393.83
1.97E-06
1.62E-10
100.7156
2.40E-07
1.72E-11
152.8445
8.194162
9.415124
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.965258
0.962862
178.2220
921129.5
-209.6880
0.474759
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
17894.09
924.8095
13.29300
13.43041
402.8626
0.000000
Dependent Variable: INV
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/18/12 Time: 22:05
Sample: 2004:1 2011:4
Included observations: 32
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
AK
G
-5.48E+09
355304.8
-4.01E-05
6.65E+08
43360.72
1.27E-05
-8.241891
8.194162
-3.152704
0.0000
0.0000
0.0037
0.895037
0.887798
75773887
1.67E+17
-624.4154
0.400279
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
5.00E+08
2.26E+08
39.21347
39.35088
123.6441
0.000000
150
Lampiran 4 Uji Autokorelasi
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
5.570413
Obs*R-squared 9.323834
Probability 0.059911
Probability 0.055578
Lampiran 5 Uji Normalitas
7
Series: Residuals
Sample 2004:1 2011:4
Observations 32
6
5
4
3
2
1
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
2.21E-15
0.000608
0.023530
-0.031069
0.014868
-0.303440
2.108337
Jarque-Bera
Probability
1.551154
0.460438
0
-0.02
0.00
0.02
GRAFIK PERKEMBANGAN VARIABEL
560
520
480
440
400
360
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
PDRB
151
140
120
100
80
60
40
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
09
10
11
G
12
10
8
6
4
2
04
05
06
07
08
I
20000
19500
19000
18500
18000
17500
17000
16500
16000
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
AK
152