Urban Australia 2020 Urban Australia 2020

Urban Australia 2020
Author(s): Patrick Moriarty
Reviewed work(s):
Source: AQ: Australian Quarterly, Vol. 70, No. 6 (Nov. - Dec., 1998), pp. 32-35
Published by: Australian Institute of Policy and Science
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20637778 .
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November-December
1998TheMure

ACL

Urban

Australia

2020

the dismal

espite

future

JtK^m^^^

record

of

future

predictions,

as
at forecasting
still flourish,
attempts
even
a
new
must:
after

all,
building
they
sewer

or tollway

future use. Most
fall into one
common

requires

could

be

in this category.

cast has much

of

can

the past

urban

Australia

has

rise

in per

capita

and

travel

and

have

grown

hold

size

tinued

and

car

use.

ownership

densities

to fall. Predicting

more

cities

Large

larger while

steadily

The

have

con

of the same

fortheyear 2020 can be easily justifiedby
these

uninterrupted

uncertainty

trends.

countenanced

The

only

is whether

and

optimists,
that one

or more

will

technology,
increasingly

discussed.

thatwe

are moving

economy'

(Coyle,

economy,

physical

and energy
of output.
materials
steadily

The

inputs

progressively
In other words,
intensity

fall. As

of

the Nobel

if I own

you

and

everyone

can't

a software

pro

can

else

also

it.

an

per unit

the energy

and

economy
econo

solve

any

claim

these

introduced.

aspect

is the huge

inequality,
countries.

Bank,

technical

progress
we

properly,
and

economic

To

must
climate

innovations

technical
The

arise.

that

problems

the social

into which

This content downloaded on Thu, 3 Jan 2013 16:18:37 PM
All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions

because

this

consider

32

claim
cornucopians
can
continue
growth

technological

evaluate

are

forever

economic

indefinitely,
can
is

such

The
that

'weightless

Laureate

sum'

increas

a car, you

but

can't continue

alter

of materials

the

as

The obvious: economic growth

other

argument

decline

largely

'zero

is seen

it as well,

have

is also

In

1997).

can

The

If I own

irrelevant.

gramme,

information

to a

image
ingly

that

radical

biotechnology

nature.

of the economy

own

for the better.
is

argues, we

Solow

by without

The

the

decisively

candidate
but

Robert

first

occur,

changes.

the economy

obvious

made

house

growth

technologies

society

that

a steady

experienced

income,

urban

a study

it.As

it shows

energy

new

will

on

assume

hand,

The

suggests

lifestyle

major

technological

type of fore

to recommend
half-century,

requiring
be

usually

This

to economic

limits

the past.

I share,

which

mist
get

with

break

profound

Official

approach.

or

higher

other

position,

a modified

termed

in Australia

forecasts

of

The most

of three categories.

be

two approaches
both argue
in some way
that the future will
entail a
The

of the future

explorations

business-as-usual

placed

an estimate

rates will

growth

than in the past.

lower

most

important

and growing

economic

both

between

and

within

United

Nations

data

(World

1997) reveal that in 1980 the

Thefuture

November-December
1998

Ricardo
Geoffrey
33

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All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions

November-December
1998Thefuture

AO.

average GDP per capita in the 23 high

house

income

ered will,

countries

North America,

of Western

Australasia

Europe,

and Japan

than

(the

OECD) was roughly 30 times thatof the
majority of humanity that lived in the
countries.

poorest

By

growing,

more

Australia

including

with

also

that nearly

now

people
where

continued

Environmentalists
a

faces

host

resource

of

problems,

serious

can

and

only

worsen

and

economic

likely, population
continue.

Not

is

resources

such as oil and natural gas being rapidly
depleted,
as

such
Water

fresh water,

all continents,
withdrawal

other uses,

and

of

soil erosion

areas.

and

greenhouse

the

atmosphere.

The

to

of heat-trap
are

gases

in

was

the

hottestdecade thiscentury,but the 1990s
look

like setting a new

Here,

I will

problems

which

record.

are directly

two

the

to

relevant

urban Australia, namely global oil deple
tion and
oil

greenhouse

consumption

constraints

level, production

present

at or above

remains

at current prices,

its
will

rises. The rest of theworld,
whose

Australia,

oil

to price

leading

will

used

for export.

as a substitute,

finite and

but

alternative
these

duction
imported

have

and will

oil

are also

shale

(e.g.
are

lead

were

oil)

times

of greenhouse

its releases

roughly in linewith nationalGDP, but ina

releases

deliveries

just to be kept

emissions
would

for all,
to cut

have

from the present

tonnes

15.3

the world
Even

1997).

(World

Bank,

measure

was

average

if this drastic

adopted by all high-emittingcountries, it
slow

only

global

warming,

it. Further, Australia

to cut emissions

not

still have

would

1 percent

by about

rate),

would

Cornucopians

that technical

of

good

respond
by
can indef

progress

solutions.
many
such

make

progress

But

examples

of

claims

doubtful.

such
A

of pro

which
peller-drivenplanes by jetaircraft,
increased

both

travel speeds

Recent

research

of other

dioxide

greenhouse
impact

alone

ilarly,

the alternatives
help

reduce

tion

and

twice

(Pearce,

above

their high energy

has

dioxide

carbon

a warming

carbon

and

fuel effi

shown

jet air travel may

high-altitude
(and

computers,

technical

to oil

processing

mean

save

may

that of the
1998).

Sim

discussed

oil dependency,

requirements

that

emissions),
gases

but

for extrac
that green

solutions
where

advances

the materials

economy,

become

suspect.

extraordinary

have

cut

drastically

and energy

for

requirements

computing. In the 1940s thepresident of
IBM predicted that the US would only
ever

need

sold.

five computers.

or not, many

needed

The

consider

energy

are

computers

have

of course,

result,
and

But whether

millions

for

requirements

far larger

ever.

than

fluorescent

compact

been

is that total

Or

light bulbs.

Since theyare much more efficient than
incandescent

in a growth-oriented

bulbs,

their introduction

economy

to

lead

could

much higher lightinguse, perhaps for
exterior

more

The much

security.

in vehicle

advances

modest

fuel efficiency

have

similarlybeen overtaken by growth in
vehicle

and use.

numbers

Global

and materials

energy

intensity

may be declining, but neither theworld
or

becoming

are

economies
In

vweightless'.
use

energy

the OECD

is still growing,

fact,

even

global

on a per

capita basis (WorldBank, 1997). Even so,

exam

closer

is the replacement

example

Take

economy

indefinitely.

initely deliver

"perfect'

each

year ( in linewith itspopulation growth

of a growth

In the context
even

material

of carbon dioxide per capita to only 4.0

have

oil.

Like oil consumption,
gas
greenhouse
are
emissions
distributed
presently

to cuts.

global

were

gases

for example,

releases

than

if annual

the

industrial

to agree

then for equal

Australia,

fuel

and

for intro
costly

this

at

Thus,
the

only

required

even

Evidently,

while

possibilities,

be even more

Conference,

ciency.

is costly. Of course,

fuels
long

gas can be

reserves

but

its transport

unconventional
other

Natural

global

allocated

for all nations.

capita

ination

fallrapidlyaftertheyear 2000,will have to
pay increasingly higher prices from the
handful of Gulf states thatwill stillhave
oil available

per

arguing

including

self-sufficiency

finite

be

of

politically, the only feasible
approach is for roughly equal emissions

stop

occur, probably by about 2010 (Kerr,
1998). Output will be unable tomatch
demand

the

atmospheric

would

If global

warming.

to

gases

tonnes,

consider

only

in the

emissions

But

sink cannot

constant,

increasing

1980s

it is today.

greenhouse

nations

in irri

salinity

as

Kyoto

are being

conversion

Concentrations

ping

on

unsustainable
soils

oil available

way:

forests.

large areas

indicating
rates. Fertile

lost because

steadily

gated

soils

are falling over

tables

resources

The

way.

future
will probably be rationedby ability
to pay,

growth

but so are key natural

these

in small

freight.
less extreme

already
if, as

are energy

only

It achieves

inmore fuel efficient large trucksor rail

and

are

which

costs.

of less frequent

instead

trucks,

that the world

environmental

and

space

storage

growth

argue

conflict

vJust-in-time'

efficiency.

aims by frequent deliveries

is

and desirable.

possible

policies.
can also

efficiency

energy

different

capital tied up in parts and reducing

the world's
economies,

economic

as both

embraced

all of

in market

live

resource

to see

expect

between

a Japanese
is
innovation,
manufacturing,
as
a
means
both
the
of
promoted
cutting

(Australian

Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 1996).Con
sider

intensify with

growth,

of conflict

Economic

alising countries,but also inmany OECD
countries,

cases

greater

oil. As global

problems

environment/

industri

rapidly

that for conventional

further economic

doubled to about 60 times. Inequality is
not only within

per unit of fuel deliv

like their costs, be much

environmental

that ratio had

1995,

releases

gas

not

can

everyone

OECD

the

enjoy

present

lifestyle.The average US citizen,

for example,
barrels

of oil

uses

presently

If all

annually.

about

people

consumed

at

this

proved

reserves

would

be

exhausted

about

eight years.

The

new

especially

oil

computers,

23

the world's
all

rate,

in

technologies,

have

evidently

not

helped ameliorate either inequality or
environmental/resource

I've

problems.

briefly looked at only two of these, but
they are growing
synergistically
ways
apparent

34

This content downloaded on Thu, 3 Jan 2013 16:18:37 PM
All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions

(Myers,

in number

in complex
1995).

resolution

and

can

Increasingly,
of

act

and unforseen

one

crisis

an
will

1998
Thefuture_November-December
AQ^_

other

exacerbate

tion

are

from biomass

fuels

to oil

So

problems.
touted

the water

but

depletion,

liquid

as a solu

much

and

land required will increasingly conflict
with thatneeded to provide a growing
world

soil

time,

At

of

uses make

have

transport

non-motorised

modes.

concerns

warming

ImplicationsforurbanAustralia

By 2020, themost critical change is
likely to be thatmost Australians will
innovation

that

realise

technological
on the host
deliver

mental/resource
continued

being

limits to growth,
tries with

resource

poorer

means.

of

dead-end

mechanism.

Such

fall. Luckily,
the

especially
operate

possible

that the new
in the

technology

rich countries

presently

in our

countries

double

importsof oil will bid up theglobal price,
in a decade

or so. The

to any other

commodities

probably
happen
encing

constraints,

supply

will

emissions

gas

greenhouse

cuts

very deep

food

their increasing

Accommodating

grains.

even

in Australia's.

low-wage

-

here

down

wages

will

trade

'factor price

the economists'
- not
only for

equalisation'

(Longworth, 1998). Anywork thatcan be
done

a computer

on

displayed

anywhere

can be

screen

in a wired

world.

Attempting to predict the future in
such

is a hazardous

a world

certain

fortunately
are easier
with

the easier

more

business,

finish with

and

the

Australian

changes.

speculative

I'll start

than others.

ones,

life

of urban

aspects

to forecast

but

cities in 2020 will look similar to today's
cities.

stock

Housing

have

infrastructure

in a couple
present
able

adapted
living,

changes
On
great

of decades.

low-density

readily

the other
changes

since

Further,

is no

need

enues

over
plummet,

Other

for radical

in urban

must

expect

transport.

the untolled

allow

similar

depend

some

suggest

merely

they will

urban

are

households

I will
that

approaches

can be grown
rainwater

and

can

By

do).

already

House

hold provision of energy isoften costly
(for

cells)
as

tal merit,

energy,

or of doubtful
is the case
to keep

Better
but

lated water

from

electricity

example

to cut back
use

can

pains

imagi
the

that

are not borne

by urban

low-income

is a Research

His
policy,

ofMechanical

Associate
Engineer

University-Caulfield
research
transport,

interests

include

alternativefuels

and the impact of technologyon society.

References

inequality
Here

Fruit and vegetables
gardens,

so

needed

be

largely

can
First, households
provide
problems.
at least some of their own food and water

in suburban

are

inDepartment

Campus.

would be helpful in dealing with both

needs.

will

the environmen

serious

in Australia.

further

alterna

Australia

are and whether

tal problems
rises

as

to foresee,
on how

enjoy

standards.

living

In Australia,

adjustment

ing,Monash

period

travel times.

in urban

changes

less easy

cities.
we

since

number,

everywhere.

Patrick Moriarty

falter, rev

the 34 year operation

let alone
cannot

for

around

for completion
If traffic levels

2000.

the year

voltaic

sustain

form.
hand,

example,

laide's

the

city can be

Australian

is due

indus

the impos

to future aspirations

policies

inevitable

co-opted

the newly

households.

viability
Link,

City

native

pollution

people,

existing

disproportionately

being

be collected in tanks (as a thirdof Ade

can be expected

for ecologically

there

to urban

urban

lives of a half-century

so little change

or longer,

other

and

find economic

will

In

reductions.
presently

Melbourne's

elusive.

will

travel
tollways

urban

tive routes will

as well

for services

but

manufactures,

to bid

tend

in vehicular

constructed

implies thattheirincreasinglycapable but
workforce

a role

any case,

require

Open

the world's

required

telecommutingand telebankingwill play

experi

and

are chasing

the present

of
the

and

presently
But

countries

Adjustments

same will

at the expense

resources
capacity

can

growth

environment

the OECD's

Their

region.

stressed,

already

occur

only

global

assimilative

economic

countries.

trialising
-

weightless
both

pollution

finite and

own

their

sible

to

like Australia

thepresently poor but rapidly industrial
ising

are

by OECD

A number of linkages bind the futureof

income

industrialising.

because

continued

absorptive

endowments.

job

of popu

no

are

and

mineral/energy

in coun

reduced,

reduce

rapidly

and

eventually

form of

income

countries

there

capacity
their

heavy-rail

- can
help

are

resources

largest,

needs

low-income
Asia

economies

three

ecolog

help
reduce

- the
good jobs as well as the

The
lous

Aus
public

positive

inequality.

Because

electric

and

income

ones

in the

extensive

It is even

systems.

cars,

the case

is already

(and

non-motorised

by

these approaches

With

needs.

prices

to operate

low cost

sustainability

increased

cities all have

tralia's major

All

for

at least, can be

transport,

benefits)

sharing

incomes

their real

US,

ical

water

of sullage

at very

act to limit car fuel

indeed

as

as well

if, as

information

growth.

that there are

here

reasons.

households

particularly

which

thrown up by

economic

accept

for several

a combination

favoured

transport,

of environ

problems
global

will

People

transport

with

the

Local

provided
health

will

the reuse

tion and
gardens.

use of

tanks, but by conserva

installing

only by

These

discussed,

already

patron

and greater

are probable

changes

low-income

cannot

increased

both

age on public

As

travel by

price increases will make itdifficultfor

problematic.

production

car, but will

consumption,

of food

levels

present

maintaining

pollution,

to urban

land

and

lower

likely have

of personal

levels

global oil depletion and greenhouse

and diversion

depletion

both water

same

the

air

loss,

fertility

ground-water

fibre, forest

food,

fuel-wood.

and

products

even

with

population

2020, our cities will most

also

photo

environmen
in

for firewood
using
on
be

reticulated

its use.

Reticu

lowered,

not

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of Statistics (ABS)

(1996)

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35

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