Conclusions Recommendations CONCLUSION MENDATIONS

V. CONCLUSION MENDATIONS

: 1. The spatial multi-criteria analysis method has been developed with the goal to assess vulnerability of settlement area from mud volcano hazard. According to literature study of some previous researches, interviews and discussions with some experts, the method considers 4 physical evaluation criteria i.e. subsidence, consists of three indicators which are methane gas, hydrogen sulfide gas and carbon dioxide gas. The expert judgment is used to decide the preference of criteria on weight and rating presented as Pairwise Comparison Matrices. 2. The method assesses the vagueness of expert confidence that involved in multi-criteria decision making by using Fuzzy AHP analysis. To simplify the complexity implementation of using fuzzy, alpha cut is applied to represent interval performance of expert confidence about their judgment. The lambda function is applied to fit the attitude of expert between these intervals to obtain crisp performance value of criterion. This research performed sensitivity analysis at three alpha values 0.4, 0.6 and 0.8 to assess the effect of expert confidence to vulnerability area. While measuring the vagueness, lambda values 0, 0.5 and 1 are used to fit the inimum, medium and maximum value of interval performance. S AND RECOM

5.1 Conclusions

There are some important points related to this research bubble gas, mud flooded and water quality. While bubble gas attitude of expert at m 3. The method has been applied to generate mud volcano vulnerability for lement area in Sidoarjo by using performance sett resulted from applying und fou 10.9 of the total 49. app 4. Com a prepared by BPLS, the map resulted from multi- vul vul prepared by BPLS. Therefore, this vulnerability area can be used to provide inc 5. The problem for implementing the method was criterion map availability and risk pplied some international

5.2 Recommendations

Multi-criteria evaluation used in this research offers an alternative to perform mud volcano vulnerability analysis since the hazard in Sidoarjo involves Fuzzy AHP and implementing spatial analysis. Based on vulnerability analysis er 100 confidence of expert on deciding upon their importance, it was nd that the high hazardous area Z1 covers about settlement area, while 25 were considered as moderate hazardous area Z2, 6 as low hazardous area Z3 and 14.4 as not impacted area Z4. The future using of this method needs the adjustment of the criteria that is ropriated with the analysis. pared to impacted are criteria analysis at 100 confidence level of expert has different classes of nerability. However, the surface area of the merged class Z1 and Z2 from nerability analysis covered area was almost same with impacted area the government with information in making decision about the area to be luded in impacted areas in order to be grouped as high priority. the standard to classify the criterion map. According to the discussion with management expert, this research has a standards to classify each criterion. 85 some f be used to assess vagueness of expert knowledge since there is vagueness in criterion. There are several points that should be done in the future, e.g.: 2. many experts from multi ed to confirm the confidence level of expert 3. always change over time actors that should be analyzed. Besides, the application of Fuzzy AHP can expert confidence while making a decision on the priority to be given to each 1. The vulnerability area resulted from applying multi-criteria analysis and Fuzzy AHP needs to be verified by the experts from BPLS who already know the real condition in the study area. Further study and discussion that involve discipline are needed to include other criteria such as crack on land surface and strength of embankment for assessing mud volcano vulnerability analysis in the future due to the dynamic change of impact of hazard in the study area. There is also a ne and decision maker on deciding their preference as the basis of developing vulnerability map as a consequence of vagueness in expert judgment. The data of each criterion used in the analysis caused by dynamic change of impact in the study area. Therefore, the vulnerability map also has a limited usefulness as consequence of this change. 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Atotter. 2005. 91 zziness In Analyzing Risk Related atural zard as tud The Ortles Alps, South Tyrol, Italy. Department of Geography, University of Innsbruck ustria. Uncertainties And Fu To N Ha : A C e S y In , A APPENDICES Appendix 1: Concentration of Bubble Gas Bubb ive Vol le No Number Date of Act CH4 LEL H2S PPM CO2 1 ei 2006 7 23 1 29 M 2 Nov 2006 36 28 100 3 007 25 12 50 7 Jan 2 4 007 83 6.0 61 4 April 2 5 2007 65 15 Mei 3 6 66 27 7 68 29 Mei 2007 100 35 8 71 3 Sep 2007 2 9 72 8 Nov 2007 100 18 10 73 11 Nov 2007 100 3 7.4 11 74 26 N0v 2007 100 12 75 11 Jan 2008 5 13 76 n 12 Ja 2008 100 8.2 14 77 21 Jan 20 1 08 2 15 78 23 jan 200 1 8 00 7.0 16 79 28 jan 200 10 1 8 2.4 17 80 7 Feb 2008 6.5 18 81 Feb 1.5 8 2008 10 19 82 8 Feb 2 008 100 20 83 0.5 10 93 94 endix 2: Physical and Chemical Data of Water Criterion n a i Nove r 2007 sics Chemistry App a. Physical a d Chemical D ta Observation t me: Phy mbe Turbidity olour TDS Fe Mn Na NH4 Cl SO4 NO2 NO3 C pH CaCO3 No Point ID Location TCU mgl mgl mgl mgl mgl mgl mgl mgl mgl NTU Standard Limit Health Ministerial No. 907 15 100 6,5- 250 3 50 MENKESSKVII2002