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I V . R E S U L T A N D D I S C U S S I O N
4.1 Sea Level Prediction
4.1.1 Sea Level Prediction for 2010
The projection sea level of common climate condition SLCC in 2010 is:
2010
SLCC
= 0.292 m + 0.316 m + 1.40 m + 0.125 m = 2.13 m.
The projection sea level of extreme climate SLEC in 2010 is:
2010
SLEC
= 0.292 m + 0.714 m + 1.40 m + 0.125 m + 0.40 m = 2.93 m.
According prediction sea level in 2010, the prediction inundation level occurred was an impact of sea level in a range from 2.13 m until 2.93 m. The
difference of the result between SLCC and SLEC, were influenced by climate condition the value of high wave and sea level in El Nino and La Nina transition
period. The difference between SLCC and SLEC is about 0.8 m.
4.1.2 Flood Prediction for 2010
Figure 4.1 Inundation level of Tidal Flood in 2010 per Landuse Class
34
100 200
300 400
500 600
0-10 10-50
50-100 Extremely Low
Very Low Low
Inundation level cm H
e c
ta r
e
Figure 4.1 shows prediction inundation of common condition in 2010, based on calculation of SLCC Sea Level in Common Condition, which has been
classified into 3 inundation depth levels namely extremely low 0~10 cm, very low 10~50 cm, and low 50~100 cm. The inundated area in 2010; range approximately
between 0 to 4 km from the coastline, covered some area in Northern and Eastern Surabaya.
The inundation divided into three inundation classes level as shown in Table 4.1 and Figure 4.2. It shows several inundation levels of landuse type and their
corresponding area. Total inundated area in 2010 is about 1048.4 hectares. The residential is the most area which affected by flooding, approximately 963.3 hectares
are flooded.
Table 4.1: Prediction total flood area 2010 in three inundation level
0-10cm 10-50cm
50-100cm Extremely low
Very low Low
Building 36.581
28.580 19.920
Residential 256.012
528.128 179.194
Embankment unaffected
unaffected unaffected
Inundation Level Area Ha Landuse Type
Figure 4.2 Graph of Tidal Flood in 2010 Area per Inundation Level
35 Based on the survey, it has been recorded that the tidal flood occured on the
11, 12, and 13 of July 2010 at 9.45am until 11.30am, in Jln. Kebalen wetan sub- district Pabean Cantikan in Northern of Surabaya with elevation about 1.7 m asl
above sea level, reached about 0.3 – 0.35 m. In Krembangan sub-district with elevation about 1.4 m asl, the inundation reached about 0.6 m. While the tidal flood
occurred on 22 December 2010 at 10.30pm until 11.45pm, the inundation of tidal flood reached 0.6 m.
Field survey reported that inundation was occurred mostly in Northern and Eastern part of Surabaya, where the predominant includes are residential and
building warehouse area. The embankment zone is unaffected by the tidal flood, because according interview with the local resident, the embankment zone will be
flooding when the tides reach about 3 meter height or more. Adaptability of local resident to the tidal flood in 2010, are performed constructing the small dam in front
of the door, raised house building, and made paving road Figure 4.3.
Figure 4.3 Field Survey in Pabean Cantikan sub-District 4.1.3 Sea Level Prediction for 2030
The projection sea level of common climate condition SLCC in 2030 is:
2030
SLCC
= 0.286 m + 0.316 m + 1.40 m + 0.544 m = 2.54 m.
The projection sea level of extreme climate SLEC in 2010 is:
2030
SLEC
= 0.286 m + 0.714 m + 1.40 m + 0.544 m + 0.40 m = 3.34 m.
Sea level projection in common climate condition for 2030 is about 2.5 m and 3.3 m in extreme climate.
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4.1.4 Flood Prediction for 2030
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