7 mostly due to non-uniform changes in temperature and salinity and related to
changes in the ocean circulation. As-syakur 2007 noted, that Indonesia is belong to this condition where occurrence of main convergence of two main world circulation
walker and hardly. Location of Indonesia is between 2 continents and ocean so that has a circulation monsoon due to sun movement and of course the occurrence of
ENSO el-nino and la-nina. Variation of topographic in all region of Indonesia, mountains, forests, valley, etc causing variation of climate and sea level condition.
2.2 Sea Level Projection According IPCC Model
A set of scenarios was developed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC to represent the range of driving forces and emissions in the scenario
literature so as to reflect current understanding and knowledge about underlying uncertainties. Those scenarios assist in climate change analysis, including climate
modelling and the assessment of impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. The scenarios are based on an extensive assessment of driving forces and
emissions in the scenario literature, alternative modelling approaches, and an “open process” that solicited wide participation and feedback. The open process defined in
the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SRES Terms of Reference calls for the use of multiple models, seeking inputs from a wide community as well as making
scenario results widely available for comments and review. These objectives were fulfilled by the SRES multi-model approach and the open SRES website IPCC,
2000. Table 2.2 explains about four qualitative storylines yielding four sets of
emissions scenarios called “families”: A1, A2, B1, and B2. The emissions scenarios are the basis for the assessment of possible mitigation strategies and policies to
prevent climate change. Two scenarios emphasize on material wealth and two other scenarios on sustainability and equity. Additionally, two scenarios emphasize on
globalization and two on regionalization.
8
Table 2.2: The four of SRES scenario families
AR4
Fourth Assessment Report
More economic focus More environmental focus
Globalisation homogeneous world
A1
rapid economic growth groups: A1T; A1B;
A1Fl 1.4 - 6.4 °C
B1
global environmental sustainability
1.1 - 2.9 °C Regionalisation
heterogeneous world
A2
regionally oriented economic development
2.0 - 5.4 °C B2
local environmental sustainability
1.4 - 3.8 °C
Source from: IPCC 2001
The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, and global population that peaks in mid-century and declines
thereafter, as well as the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and
increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups
that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive
A1FI, non-fossil energy sources A1T, or a balance across all sources A1B.12 The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world.
The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously
increasing global population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological changes are more fragmented and
slower than in other storylines. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with
the same global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid changes in economic structures towards a service and
information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to
economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.
9 The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the
emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with a continuously increasing global population at a rate lower than in
A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also
oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels IPCC, 2001.
Table 2.3 shows about six families of SRES scenarios and AR4 Fourth Assessment Report, provide projected temperature and sea level rises excluding
future rapid dynamical changes in ice flow for each scenario family.
Table 2.3: Temperature and sea level rise for each SRES scenario family
Scenario SRES Description
1
B1
Best estimate temperature rise of 1.8 °C with a likely range of 1.1 to 2.9 °C. Sea level rise likely range 18 to 38 cm.
2 A1T
Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 °C with a likely range of 1.4 to 3.8 °C. Sea level rise likely range 21 to 48 cm.
3 B2
Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 °C with a likely range of 1.4 to 3.8 °C. Sea level rise likely range 20 to 43 cm
4 A1B
Best estimate temperature rise of 2.8 °C with a likely range of 1.7 to 4.4 °C. Sea level rise likely range 21 to 48 cm.
5 A2
Best estimate temperature rise of 3.4 °C with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.4 °C. Sea level rise likely range 23 to 51 cm.
6 A1F1
Best estimate temperature rise of 4.0 °C with a likely range of 2.4 to 6.4 °C. Sea level rise likely range 26 to 59 cm.
Source from: IPCC 2000
Figure 2.3 shows the sea level rise using the simple model when tuned to a number of complex models with a range of climate sensitivities. All SRES envelopes
refer to the full range of 35 SRES scenarios. The “model average all SRES envelope” shows the average from these models for the range of scenarios. Note that the
warming and sea level rise from these emissions would continue well beyond 2100. This range does not allow for uncertainty relating to ice dynamical changes in the
West Antarctic ice sheet, nor does it account for uncertainties in projecting non- sulphate aerosols and greenhouse gas concentrations IPCC, 2001.
10
Figure 2.3: Global average sea level rise 1990 to 2100 by several of the SRES scenarios source from: IPCC 2001
A set of scenarios was developed to represent the range of driving forces and emissions in the scenario literature to reflect current understanding and knowledge
about underlying uncertainties. The scenarios are based on an extensive assessment of driving forces and emissions in the scenario literature, alternative modelling
approaches, and an “open process” that solicited wide participation and feedback. Several data models projection with set of IPCC scenarios SRES has been
done by some research institutes namely: BCC-CM 1 model Beijing Climate Center, China, BCM 2.0 model Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway, CGCM3.1
model Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, MIROC3.2 Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Japan, Mk3.0 3.5 model CSIRO-
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia, HadCM3 model Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, UK, INMCM3.0 model
Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia, CM3 model from Meteo France, MRI model from Meteorogical Research Institute - Japan, GISS model NASA-Goddard
Institute for Space Studies, and CM 2.0 2.1 from NOAA, etc.
2.3 MRI-CGCM in SRES A1B Model
