42
V . C O N C L U S I O N S A N D R E C O M M E N D A T I O N
5.1 Conclusions
From the foregoing discussion, the following conclusions are derived: 1.
Hazard map could be established using combination between sea level projection data, vulnerability data, and field survey data.
2. The MRI-CGCM model was quite good to predict sea level rise having
accuracy of 93.3. 3.
The tidal flood predicted will mostly occurred in Northern and Eastern part of Surabaya. The predominantly vulnerable areas are residential, warehouse
building, and embankment. 4.
The total loss estimation for 2010, 2030 and 2100 respectively are 370 billion, 2 trillion and 3.6 trillion rupiahs.
5.2 Recommendations
The following are some recommendation proposed: 1.
A deep survey and analysis of the latest condition about asset price of the land use, recorded data about duration of usual inundation by tidal flood
characteristic, socio-economic intangible impact, small scope site area and measurement of penetration flood energy to the mainland - relief of front
coast material, calculation rapid sedimentation model are required to make prediction of loss damage more accurate.
2. Future study should examine the reliability of the sea level projection
equation model in other site. The standard price of land use type to the natural disaster in Indonesia is required to make estimation of loss more easily.
3. Actions that should be performed to reduce the tidal flood impact are: re-
planning vulnerable area by relocates the settlements within 6 km from the coastline, mangrove reforestation and development of the breakwater.
43
R E F E R E N C E S
Abidin, H.Z., H. Andreas, I. Gumilar, M. Gamal, Y. Fukuda, and T. Deguchi. 2009. Land Subsidence and Urban Development in Jakarta Indonesia. 7th FIG
Regional Conference Spatial Data Serving People: Land Governance and the Environment – Building the Capacity. Hanoi, Vietnam:
http:www.fig.netpubvietnampapersts06fts06f_abidin_etal_3491.pdf
As-syakur, A.R. 2007. Identifikasi Hubungan Fluktuasi Nilai SOI Terhadap Curah Hujan Bulanan Di Kawasan Batukaru-Bedugul, Jurnal Bumi Lestari, Bali.
72: pp.123-129. Bappenas [Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional]. 2000. Budidaya Udang
Windu. Proyek Pengembangan Ekonomi Masyarakat Pedesaan. Jakarta. Bappenas [Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional]. 2007. Laporan Perkiraan
Kerusakan dan Kerugian Pasca Bencana Banjir Awal Februari 2007 di Wilayah Jabodetabek. Kementerian Negara Perencanaan Pembangunan
Nasional. Jakarta.
CGD Climate Global Dynamic. 2010. Southern Oscillation Index SOI. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Boulder. Colorado.
Chu, W.S., J.W. Ho, and C.H. Sung. 2003. Land Subsidence Prevention in Taiwan. Groundwater and Related Land Disaster Session, the 3rd World Water Forum,
Osaka, Kyoto. Japan. Cohen, J. E., C. Small, A. Mellinger, J. Gallup, and J. Sachs. 1997. Estimates of
Coastal Populations. Science 278: pp.1211-1212. Coto, E.B. 2002. Flood Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Assessment in the City of
Turrialba, Costa Rica. M.Sc thesis. International institute for Geo- Information Science and Earth Observation. Enschede, The Netherlands
Dahuri, R., J. Rais, S.G. Putra, M.J. Sitepu. 2001. Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Wilayah Pesisir dan Lautan Secara Terpadu. PT. Pradnya Paramita, Jakarta.
Diposaptono, S. 2002. Pengaruh Pemanasan Global terhadap Pesisir dan Pulau- Pulau Kecil di Indonesia. Direktorat Bina Pesisir – Ditjen Pesisir dan Pulau-
Pulau Douglas, B.C. 2001. Sea Level Rise: History and Consequences. International
Geophysical Series, vol. 75, Academic Press. San Diego, California. Fraczek, W. 2003. Mean Sea Level, GPS, and the Geoid.
http:www.esri.comnewsarcuser0703geoid1of3.html
44 Griggs, D. 2001. Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working
Groups I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report TAR of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, Cambridge University
Press: http:www.unep.orgdewaassessmentsecosystemswatervitalwater41.htm
Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva. 2009, Reconstructing Sea Level from Paleo and Projected Temperatures 200 to 2100AD, Clim. Dyn.,
doi:10.1007s00382-008-0507-2. Copenhagen: http:www.glaciology.netHomePDFsGrinsted-
grl2003_BIA_flow_model.pdf?attredirects=0d=1
Gutman, G., I. Csiszar, and P. Romanov. 2000. Using NOAAAVHRR Products to Monitor El Niño Impacts: Focus on Indonesia in 1997–98. Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society, 81: pp.1189-1205 Heryawan, A. 2009. Petani Tambak Alami Kerugian Miliaran Rupiah Akibat Banjir:
http:ahmadheryawan.comlintas-kabupaten-kotakabupaten-subang7702- petani-tambak-alami-kerugian-miliaran-rupiah-akibat-banjir.html
IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]. 2000. Emission Scenarios: Summary for Policy Makers. IPCC Special Report:
http:www.ipcc.chpdfspecial-reportsspmsres-en.pdf IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]. 2001. Climate Change 2001.
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, eds. J. J. McCarthy, O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken, and K. S. White. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]. 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M.
Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller eds.]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA.
Iwa. Sab, and Fqi. 2010. Jakarta Surut, Surabaya Kian Parah. Surabaya Post. Jevrejeva, S., J. C. Moore, and A. Grinsted. 2010. How Will Sea Level Respond to
Changes in Natural And Anthropogenic Forcings by 2100?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L07703, doi:10.10292010GL042947.
Leake, S.A. 2004. Land Subsidence from Ground-Water Pumping. U.S. Geological Survey: http:geochange.er.usgs.govswchangesanthropogenicsubside
45 Marfai, M.A. 2003. Modelling of West floodway River Semarang Integration of
Hydrological Model and GIS.Journal of Forum Geografi Indonesia vol 17, No 1: pp.39-50
McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson. 2007. The Rising Tide: Assessing The Risks Of Climate Change And Human Settlements In Low Elevation Costal
Zones; Environment and Urbanization; vol. 19: pp. 17-37. Naruse, Y. 2009. The New Seasonal Prediction System at the Japan Meteorological
Agency. 34th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop.Monterey,California.
http:met.nps.educlimate_CDPW09documentsPOSTERSP2.05_Naruse_3 4th_CDPW_Oct09.pdf
NASA [National Aeronautics and Space Administration]. 2010. Adios El Niño, hello La Niña? Jet Propulsion Laboratory:
http:sealevel.jpl.nasa.govelnino20100611.html Noda, A. 1999. MRI-CGCM Ground Hydrology Model: Frequently Ask Question.
Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Nagamine 1-1, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, Japan.
NOAA [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]. 1998. Answers to La Niña Frequently Asked Questions. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. http:www.elnino.noaa.govlanina_new_faq.html
NOAA [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]. 2005. Lanina Related Global Surface Temperature and Precipitation Patterns. Camp Springs,
Maryland. http:www.cpc.noaa.govproductsanalysis_monitoringensocyclelaninasfc.s
html.
NOAA [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]. 2009. Southern Oscillation Index SOI. National Climatic Data center:
http:www.ncdc.noaa.govteleconnectionsensoindicatorssoi.php OOPC [Ocean Observations Panel of Climate]. 2010. Niño3.4. IOCUNESCO,
France. http:ioc-goos-oopc.orgstate_of_the_oceansurpacnino3.4.php Phien-wej, N., P.H. Giao and P. Nutalaya. 2005. Land subsidence in Bangkok,
Thailand. Engineering Geology. Vol.82: pp.187-282 Rais, J. 2007. Lecture notes: The Impact of Global Warming for the Small Island.
MSc in IT for Natural Resource Program - Biotrop, IPB, Bogor.
46 Rolalisasi, A. and O. Mahesti. 2008. The Impact of Climate Change at Fisherman
Settlements. International Symposum on Climate Change and Human Settlements, Bali.
Salim, E. 2008. 3000 Pulau di Indonesia Akan Tenggelam. Prosiding Seminar Marine and Climate Change. Program Studi Ilmu Lingkungan Pascasarjana
Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta. Smith, K. and R. Ward. 1998, Floods: Physical Processes and Human Impacts, John
Wiley and Sons, Chichester, USA. SMT [Supreme Master Television]. 2010. Submerged Islands.
http:suprememastertv.comsea-level-rise?wr_id=631 Sofian, I. and A. Wijanarto. 2008. Proyeksi Kenaikan Tinggi Muka Air Laut di
Jakarta Berdasarkan Skenario IPCC AR4. Jurnal Ilmiah Geomatika, Jakarta 14: pp.71-80.
Stockdale, T. N., O. Alves, G. Boer, M. Deque, Y. Ding, A. Kumar, K. Kumar, W. Landman, S. Mason, P. Nobre, A. Scaife, O. Tomoaki and W.T. Yun. 2009.
Understanding and Predicting Seasonal to Inter-annual Climate Variability. World Climate Conference-3 WCC-3. Geneva.
Takaya, Y., T. Yasuda, T. Nakaegawa, M. Kamachi, K. Takahashi and T. Ose. 2009. Improved Asian Monsoon Prediction in the JMAMRI Seasonal Forecast
System. Japan Meteorological Agency. Takaya, Y., T. Yasuda, T. Ose and T. Nakaegawa. 2008. Dynamical Seasonal
Prediction of Typhoons with the New Coupled Model JMAMRI-CGCM. Japan Meteorological Agency.
Tobing, T., M. Dodid, and J. Panggabean, 2004. Evaluasi Geologi Teknik Land Subsidence Surabaya Propinsi Jawa TImur. Direktorat Tata Lingkungan
Geologi dan Kawasan Pertambangan. Dirjen Geologi dan Sumberdaya Mineral. Departemen ESDM. Bandung.
Vermeer, M. and S. Rahmstorf. 2009. Global Sea Level Linked To Global Temperature. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:21527–21532.
Wei, Q. 2006. Land Subsidence and Water Management in Shanghai. Master Theses. Land and Water Resource Management Faculty. Delft University of
Technology. White, N. 2009. Sea Level Rise. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organization CSIRO. Australia. http:www.cmar.csiro.ausealevel
47 Yamamoto, S. 1995. Recent Trend of Land Subsidence in Japan. Proceedings of the
Fifth International Symposium on Land Subsidence. Japan. Yamashiki, Y., M. Kato, K. Takara, E. Nakakita, M. Kumagai and C. Jiao. 2010.
Sensitivity Analysis on Lake Biwa under the A1B SRES Climate Change Scenario Using Biwa-3D Integrated Assessment Model: Part I – Projection of
Lake Temperature. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji City, Kyoto, Japan.
48
A P P E N D I C E S
Appendix 1: SOI Southern Oscillation Index
Source from: CGD 2010.
49 Appendix 2: Oceanic Nino Index ONI 1950 – 2010 source from NOAA 2010
Year DJ
F JF
M FM
A MA
M AM
J MJ
J JJ
A JA
S AS
O SO
N ON
D ND
J 1950
-1.7 -1.5
-1.3 -1.4
-1.3 -1.1
-0.8 -0.8
-0.8 -0.9
-0.9 -1
1951 -1
-0.9 -0.6
-0.3 -0.2
0.2 0.4
0.7 0.7
0.8 0.7
0.6 1952
0.3 0.1
0.1 0.2
0.1 -0.1
-0.3 -0.3
-0.2 -0.2
-0.1
1953 0.2
0.4 0.5
0.5 0.5
0.5 0.4
0.4 0.4
0.4 0.4
0.4
1954 0.5
0.3 -0.1
-0.5 -0.7
-0.7 -0.8
-1 -1.2
-1.1 -1.1
-1.1 1955
-1 -0.9
-0.9 -1
-1 -1
-1 -1
-1.4 -1.8
-2 -1.9
1956 -1.3
-0.9 -0.7
-0.6 -0.6
-0.6 -0.7
-0.8 -0.8
-0.9 -0.9
-0.8 1957
-0.5
-0.1 0.3
0.6 0.7
0.9 0.9
0.9 0.9
1 1.2
1.5 1958
