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4.1.4 Flood Prediction for 2030
Based on calculation of SLCC Sea Level in Common Condition, inundation area in 2030 are predicted to spread within range of 6 km from the coastline. Sea
level projected is ranging from 2.5 to 3.3 m.
Figure 4.4 Inundation level of Tidal Flood in 2030 per Landuse Class
Figure 4.3 shows that the prediction of inundation level in 2030, are in range 10 cm to 150 cm. The inundation level was then classified into 3 inundation depth
levels namely: very low 10~50 cm, low 50~100 cm, and moderate 100~150 cm as tabulated in Table 4.2. Figure 4.5 shows several inundation levels of landuse type
and their corresponding area in 2030.
Table 4.2: Prediction total flood area 2030 in three inundation level
10-50cm 50-100cm 100-150cm
Very low Low
Moderate Building
176.619 87.814
60.745 Residential
855.077 596.383
449.426 Embankment
2155.650 −
− Inundation Level Area Ha
Landuse Type
37
500 1000
1500 2000
2500 3000
3500
10-50 50-100
150-250 Very Low
Low Moderate
Inundation level cm H
e c
ta r
e
Figure 4.5 Graph of Tidal Flood in 2030 Area per Inundation Level
In 2030, it is predicted that 4381.7 hectares of embankment area in 2030 predicted will be inundated. This is because the inundation level predicted by SLCC
Sea Level in Common Condition will reach more than 2 m.
4.1.5 Sea Level Prediction for 2100
The projection sea level of common climate condition SLCC in 2100 is:
2100
SLCC
= 0.405 m + 0.316 m + 1.40 m + 2.0112 m = 4.133 m.
The projection sea level of extreme climate SLEC in 2100 is:
2100
SLEC
= 0.286 m + 0.714 m + 1.40 m + 4.931 m + 0.40 m = 4.931 m.
According SLCC and SLEC the sea level in 2100 will rise about 2 times higher than in 2010. The values of SLCC and SLEC in 2100 respectively are 4.13 m and 4.93 m.
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4.1.6 Flood Prediction for 2100
Based on the sea level prediction in 2100, the inundation level occurred as will have a range between 4.1 m and 4.9 m.
Figure 4.6 Inundation level of Tidal Flood in 2100 per Landuse Class
For the prediction in 2100, the inundation was classified into 3 inundation depth levels namely: moderate 100~150 cm, high 150~250 cm and very high
250~400 cm. As shown in Figure 4.6 we may conclude, that the inundation in 2100, will reach 25 total area of Surabaya city.
The inundation in 2100 will in range at about 8 km from the coastline. Almost all area in Northern and Eastern Surabaya will be inundated, ranging from 1
to 1.5 m depth. Table 4.3 and Figure 4.7 show several inundation levels of the landuse type and their corresponding area in 2100.
Table 4.3: Prediction total flood area 2100 in three inundation level
100-150cm 150-250cm 250-400cm
Moderate High
Very High Building
306.666 278.685
65.411 Residential
1467.466 1747.302
488.444 Embankment
1500.208 3888.836 −
Inundation Level Area Ha Landuse Type
39
1000 2000
3000 4000
5000 6000
2010 2030
2100
Ye ar Proje cte d H
e c
ta r
e
Building Residential
Embankment
1000 2000
3000 4000
5000 6000
7000
100-150 150-250
250-400 Moderate
High Very High
Inundation level cm H
e c
ta r
e
Sea level predicted will rise about 2 meters high within 90 years, and if there is no effort to avoid that condition, approximately total 9743 hectares area in 2100
predicted will be inundated. Figure 4.8 is shows trend of the inundation area beyond 2100.
Figure 4.7: Graph of Tidal Flood in 2100 Area per Inundation Level
Figure 4.8: Graph of Trend Inundation Area
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4.2 Loss Estimation
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