Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 82 2000 333–354
Spatial explorations of land use change and grain production in China
Peter H. Verburg
a,∗
, Youqi Chen
b
, Tom A. Veldkamp
a
a
Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, PO Box 37, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
b
Institute of Natural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Baishiqiao Road 30, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract
Studies on land use change and food security in China have often neglected the regional variability of land use change and food production conditions. This study explores the various components of agricultural production in China in a spa-
tially explicit way. Included are changes in agricultural area, multiple cropping index, input use, technical efficiency and technological change. Different research methodologies are used to analyse these components of agricultural production. The
methodologies are all based on semi-empirical analyses of land use patterns in relation to biophysical and socio-economical explanatory factors. The results indicate that different processes and patterns of land use change are found in various parts of
the country. Large inefficiencies in the use of agricultural inputs and relatively low input use are especially found in some of the rural, less endowed, western regions of China, which indicates that in these regions of China increases in grain yield are
well possible. The spatially explicit results might help to focus agricultural policies to the appropriate regions. © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: China; Grain production; Land use change; Yield; Technical efficiency; Spatial modelling
1. Introduction
Land use change is central to the interest of the global environmental change research community.
Land use changes influence, and are determined by, climate change, loss of biodiversity, and the sustain-
ability of human–environment interactions, such as food production, water and natural resources and
human health. Land use changes not only include changes in land cover, but also the manner in which
the land is manipulated and the intent underlying that manipulation Turner II et al., 1995. Manipulation of
land refers to the specific way in which humans use
∗
Corresponding author. Tel.: +31-317-485208; fax: +31-317-482419.
E-mail address: pverburggissrv.iend.wau.nl P.H. Verburg.
vegetation, soil, and water for the purpose in question, e.g., the use of fertilisers, pesticides, and irrigation
for mechanised cultivation. Land use change in China is often seen in the light
of its impact on food security. With a rising demand for agricultural products, as a consequence of popu-
lation growth and changing consumption patterns, it is essential for China to increase its food production.
In recent years much discussion is devoted to China’s ability to maintain food self-sufficiency Garnaut and
Ma, 1992; Brown, 1995; Rozelle and Rosegrant, 1997; Lin, 1998. China might become a major importer of
food products as a consequence of its losses of agricul- tural land through urbanisation and degradation, and
its limited possibilities to increase output per unit area. Brown 1995 takes the most extreme position, claim-
ing that China’s grain production will fall in absolute
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334 P.H. Verburg et al. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 82 2000 333–354
terms while demand will rise, creating a shortfall of more than 200 million metric tons by 2030. Other au-
thors, using more sophisticated analyses, have shown that shortfalls in production are probably lower Paarl-
berg, 1997; Huang et al., 1999. Recent projections by the United States Department of Agriculture have now
again sharply reduced projected growth in China’s grain import demand USDA, 2000. The largest un-
certainties in the projections of changes in China’s food economy are found on the supply side of the food
balance, largely as a consequence of differences in the analysts’ perception of prospects for technological
change and other factors affecting growth of cultivated land and productivity Fan and Agcaoili-Sombilla,
1997. Almost all of these assessments of the impact of land use changes on food supply in China are based
upon an analysis of the economy at the national level. Such aggregated assessments lack the analysis of re-
gional variability in land use change and potentials to increase production. The highly diverse natural and
socio-economic conditions in China cause land use change to have differential impacts across the country.
Spatially explicit assessments are needed to identify areas that are likely to be subject to dramatic land use
modifications in the near future. Such information is especially important for land use planners since, in
order to focus policy interventions, one needs not only to know the present rates and localities of land use
change, but also to anticipate where conversions are most likely to occur next. Such predicative informa-
tion is essential to support the timely policy response.
This paper studies potential near-future changes in China’s agricultural production from a spatially ex-
plicit perspective. The different components of land use change influencing grain production, are studied
in order to identify potential ’hot-spots’ of change. Regional variability is related to its explanatory fac-
tors, to identify the processes underlying the changes in land use.
2. Methodology and data
