Stochastic structure and estimation problems

31 A.I. Gershberg, T. Schuermann Economics of Education Review 20 2001 27–40 [K S a i N i e q S S i ] F d S S i E S i G 5lN i . 7 where K S 5 F O j a j N j e q S S j G − 1 . 8 Canceling N i and M i on both sides and taking logs we get: ln [K S a i e q S S i ]1ln F d S S i E S i G 5ln l. 9 Rearranging terms yields an equation that can be read- ily estimated: ln S E S i S i D 5ln K S 2ln l1ln d S 1ln a i 1q S S i . 10 The first three terms make up the intercept in the regression equation and are therefore not individually identifiable. Collecting all unobservables in Eq. 10 into a con- stant, we can rewrite the expenditure equation as ln S E S i S i D 5b 1ln a i 1q S S i , 11 where the unequal concern parameter a i depends in log- arithmic form on the state characteristics and some unob- servables: 17 ln a i 5 O p l51 b l ln x li 1v i . 12 Those state characteristics should affect each sector the same up to a factor of proportionality. In fact, we shall make use of this assumption later when trying to find an instrument for expenditure in the schooling production function. The expenditure equation is now stochastic: 18 17 Note that the unobservables are assumed to be independent of instruments used for S in Eq. 11. 18 Note that this is not the completed solution to the maximiz- ation problem. Rather, we assume the government acts in the manner described as if to maximize the described social wel- fare function and test for the factors that influence its action within the given framework. We can do so because both S and E are observable, as are the variables of unequal concern. In this sense, the equation should not be construed as a cost func- tion. In fact it can be rewritten as ln E S i 5b 1 O p l51 b 1 ln x li 1q S S i 1ln S i 1v i which is unambiguously an expenditure equation. ln S E S i S i D 5b 1 O p l51 b l ln x li 1q S S i 1v i . 13 This is the form of the equation we finally wish to esti- mate to obtain values for q and a i .

3. Stochastic structure and estimation problems

In order to understand fully the behavior of the central government in relation to the states, one needs to con- sider the production of the outcome e.g. literacy in a given state. Such a production function would clearly depend upon educational expenditures themselves, thus forcing the implementation of a simultaneous equation system. If states are treated unequally, then the timing of expenditure outlays would make a difference on edu- cational outcomes. For instance, states where heavy fed- eral expenditure on education started earlier would pre- sumably have a higher literacy rate today. First- differencing in the outcome production equation would control for endogenous educational expenditure allo- cation. 19 While we engage in a two-period comparison in this study, we do not have each regressor used in 1980 available for 1990 and are hence unable to estimate a first-differenced model. A detailed discussion of the regressors is found in Section 4. Schooling outcomes are assumed to depend on edu- cational expenditure, the amount or quality of school- ing that the parents received, some returns to scale effects in our case captured by the degree of urbanization and the endowment of the student. A fun- damental problem encountered in the estimation process is that student endowments are not observable. Consider the following log-linear production equation: ln S it 5g 1d S ln E S it 1g 1 ln PS it 1g 2 ln U it 1m i 1e it , 14 where PS is the parental schooling variable, U the degree of urbanization, and m the ith state’s deviation from aver- age student endowment. Factors other than PS and U may be considered relevant, but the spirit of the dis- cussion will remain unaltered. We have added time subscripts in this equation with the notable exception of the endowment variable. The estimation problem comes from two sources: 1 it is very likely that schooling expenditures E S it and state endowments m i are correlated over time; 2 in addition, matters are complicated by the unobservability of m i , meaning that in a regression exercise the endowments will simply be captured by the error term e it . We could get a noisy estimate of m i from Eq. 14, 19 Andrew Foster kindly pointed us to a paper by Rosenzweig and Wolpin 1986 which suggests first differencing as a sol- ution to endogenous expenditure allocation. 32 A.I. Gershberg, T. Schuermann Economics of Education Review 20 2001 27–40 but only if we contend with the correlation of expendi- ture and endowments. For this we need an instrument for E S i , and we turn to the road sector for such an instru- ment. Road and schooling expenditure will be correlated because we assumed earlier that the unequal treatment parameter is the same in both sectors. Why is this so? If we consider the expenditure formula Eq. 13, we see that shocks to schooling expenditure come from n i . This shock term was defined earlier in Eq. 12 as the error term for the unequal treatment parameter stemming, for example, from measurement error or omitted variables. If we therefore make the reasonable assumption that the unequal treatment parameter a is the same for both sectors, a shock to E S will affect E R pro- portionately the same. Before proceeding, we need to make one further ident- ifying assumption: shocks in unequal treatment from n are uncorrelated with student endowments m. Since endowments determine schooling which appears on the right hand side of the expenditure equation Eq. 13, correlation between m and n needs to be zero in order to obtain unbiased estimates. Since these endowments are invisible even to the government whereas factors yield- ing unequal treatment by the government, such as income, are not, this identifying assumption seems quite reasonable. A final assumption is that only partially observable endowments in the road sector are uncorrelated with schooling endowments. We see no reason why this assumption should be violated. However, if it is, road expenditure will serve as a worse instrument for school- ing expenditure.

4. Data and estimations