Monthly average for 10 years Temperature

4.1.1 Climatology process and Anomalies of EVI

a. Monthly average for 10 years

0.4 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.5 0.52 0.54 0.56 Ja n -0 1 Ju l- 1 Ja n -0 2 Ju l- 2 Ja n -0 3 Ju l- 3 Ja n -0 4 Ju l- 4 Ja n -0 5 Ju l- 5 Ja n -0 6 Ju l- 6 Ja n -0 7 Ju l- 7 Ja n -0 8 Ju l- 8 Ja n -0 9 Ju l- 9 Ja n -1 Ju l- 1 EVI CP Figure 4 Time series of monthly mean of EVI and monthly average of 10-year period Figure 4 compares the monthly mean of EVI and the Climatology Process in Kalimantan for 10 years. As can be seen in Figure 4, the proportion of EVI varied between around 0.46 to 0.55 while the monthly average of 10 years was around 0.49 to 0.54. In the beginning of 2001, the monthly average of 10 years was by far lower than the proportion of EVI: it was only about 0.52 while the EVI was about 0.54. However, at mid-2001, the amount of EVI declined dramatically to almost 0.50 which was almost similar to the monthly average of 10 years. During the 10-year period, the proportion of EVI varied a lot. In general, the value was more than 0.50 except at the end of 2002 and 2006, from the middle of 2009 until mid-2010, and by the end of 2010. The monthly average of 10 years for EVI, on the other hand, showed a small variation. Even if there are many upward and downward trends happening throughout the period, the value was not lower than 0.49. Overall, Figure 4 showed that the proportion of EVI was much more stable from 2001 to mid 2009 except in October 2006 and was quite low from mid-2009 to mid-2010.

b. Anomalies

AN -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.02 0.04 0.06 J a n- 01 Ju l- 1 J a n- 02 Ju l- 2 J a n- 03 Ju l- 3 J a n- 04 Ju l- 4 J a n- 05 Ju l- 5 J a n- 06 Ju l- 6 J a n- 07 Ju l- 7 J a n- 08 Ju l- 8 J a n- 09 Ju l- 9 J a n- 10 Ju l- 1 AN Figure 5 Time series of anomalies for EVI from 2001 to 2010 Figure 5 shows the anomalies for the EVI in Kalimantan from 2001 to 2010. It is clear that the values varied between -0.04 and 0.05 during this 10-year period. In October 2005, it reached its peak with a value of 0.05, whereas in October 2006, it had its lowest value at -0.04. For the other years, the variation was around -0.03 to 0.02. During the first 5 years, all values are positive except in September to December 2002, April 2003, and August 2004 to June 2005, where the variation of the anomalies showed a downward trend. Similarly a downward trend was also noticed over the last 5-year period. However, some of the values are above 0 in February to June 2006, January and May 2007, September 2007 to March 2008, August to December 2008, February and April 2009, and September to November 2010 before a rapid decline by the end of 2010 with a value of -0.03. Overall, Figure 5 indicates that there was a difference between the variations of the values of the anomalies of EVI from 2001 to 2005, and from 2006 to 2010.

4.1.2 Spatial distribution of Enhanced Vegetation Index

Enhanced Vegetation Index EVI data were obtained from the MODIS sensor. It corrects for some distortions in the reflected light caused by the particles in the air as well as the ground cover below the vegetation. The EVI data product also does not become saturated as easily as NDVI when viewing rainforests and other area of the Earth with large amounts of chlorophyll. The EVI data are designed to provide consistent, spatial and temporal comparisons of vegetation conditions, and it offers the potential for regional analysis and systematic and effective monitoring of the forest area. The EVI values were resulted from 10-year estimation. The values vary between -0.2 as minimum to 1 as maximum. The EVI values equal to or below zero were assumed to be typically caused by water bodies. The low EVI values were sparsely vegetated land meanwhile the high EVI values were densely vegetated land. Estimation of EVI values over Kalimantan terrestrial from 2001 to 2010 are shown in the Table 1. Table 1 The general pattern of monthly EVI in Kalimantan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Min -0.19 -0.16 -0.17 -0.19 -0.18 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19 -0.20 -0.20 -0.19 -0.19 2001 Mean 0.51 0.52 0.55 0.52 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.50 0.50 0.50 Max 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.93 0.99 0.96 0.97 1.00 0.96 1.00 0.97 0.96 Min -0.19 -0.15 -0.19 -0.19 -0.16 -0.18 -0.20 -0.19 -0.18 -0.20 -0.19 -0.20 2002 Mean 0.50 0.51 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.53 0.50 0.48 0.49 0.49 Max 0.98 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.99 1.00 0.95 0.98 Min -0.20 -0.17 -0.17 -0.20 -0.17 -0.20 -0.20 -0.19 -0.19 -0.18 -0.20 -0.20 2003 Mean 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.50 0.51 0.51 Max 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.99 0.95 0.98 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 Min -0.18 -0.15 -0.16 -0.16 -0.19 -0.19 -0.13 -0.19 -0.18 -0.18 -0.20 -0.17 2004 Mean 0.51 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.49 Max 1.00 0.96 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.98 1.00 0.96 0.99 0.94 1.00 1.00 Min -0.20 -0.19 -0.17 -0.19 -0.18 -0.19 -0.15 -0.17 -0.14 -0.19 -0.18 -0.17 2005 Mean 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.55 0.53 0.52 Max 1.00 1.00 0.96 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.94 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.96 1.00 Min -0.17 -0.19 -0.19 -0.16 -0.13 -0.18 -0.16 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.17 2006 Mean 0.50 0.52 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.46 0.47 0.49 Max 0.98 0.99 0.94 0.95 0.98 0.99 0.94 0.97 0.97 1.00 0.99 1.00 Min -0.18 -0.17 -0.19 -0.18 -0.14 -0.15 -0.15 -0.18 -0.17 -0.19 -0.17 -0.18 2007 Mean 0.51 0.49 0.51 0.50 0.51 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.53 0.52 0.50 0.50 Max 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.98 0.97 1.00 0.97 1.00 0.93 1.00 0.98 1.00 Min -0.16 -0.17 -0.17 -0.19 -0.15 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19 -0.17 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19 2008 Mean 0.50 0.52 0.53 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.51 Max 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.96 0.94 0.98 1.00 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.00 Min -0.19 -0.20 -0.16 -0.17 -0.19 -0.20 -0.20 -0.19 -0.20 -0.20 -0.18 -0.19 2009 Mean 0.50 0.52 0.50 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.48 0.49 0.46 0.48 0.49 Max 1.00 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.95 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.98 Min -0.18 -0.20 -0.19 -0.18 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.19 -0.19 -0.20 -0.19 -0.20 2010 Mean 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.50 0.49 0.51 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.47 Max 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.97 1.00 0.99 1.00 The Table 1 illustrates the general pattern of monthly EVI in Kalimantan. It is clear that the minimal value during the 10-year period for the Min was in July and September of 2001 and 2009 with a value of about -0.20; while the maximal value for the Min was in May and July 2004 with a value of about -0.12. The Mean had its highest value in October 2005 with about 0.55; and its lowest amount in October 2006 with 0.45. For the Max, the October 2005 proportion about 1 was the highest throughout the 10-year period; whereas the September 2007 with about 0.92 was the lowest. Figure 6 shows the spatial distribution of EVI over Kalimantan in 2001, 2005, 2006, and 2010. Mean EVI 2001 Mean EVI 2005 Mean EVI 2006 Mean EVI 2010 Figure 6 Yearly mean of EVI in the year 2001, 2005, 2006, and 2010

4.2 Temperature

The temperature data used for this study was from NCEPNCAR National Centers for Environmental PredictionNational Center for Atmospheric Research at monthly value. Below is the monthly average of temperature in Kalimantan from 2001 to 2010. TEMP 24 24.5 25 25.5 26 26.5 27 J a n- 01 J a n- 02 J a n- 03 J a n- 04 J a n- 05 J a n- 06 J a n- 07 J a n- 08 J a n- 09 J a n- 10 Time o C TEMP Figure 7 Monthly average temperature over Kalimantan from 2001 to 2010 Figure 7 gives information about changes of the monthly average temperature in Kalimantan between 2001 and 2010. The monthly average temperature in Kalimantan ranged between 25.04°C to 26.38°C except in May 2010 where it reached 26.72°C. The pattern of monthly average temperature showed that monthly average temperature in Kalimantan reached its highest temperature value during May and June. It is evident that the value of monthly average temperature in Kalimantan decreased from November to February for every year from about 25.7°C to 25.1°C. Similarly in July of every year, it fell slightly from about 25.9°C to 25.4°C; and for the other period of the year especially from February to May, the figure showed an upward trend with a value of about 25.05°C to 26.3°C and reached its peak in May or June. The monthly average temperature had its highest value in May 2010 and its lowest value in January 2009 with a value of 26.72°C and 25.04°C respectively. In general, each year variation’s trend was almost the same over the 10-year period from 2001 to 2010. Table 2 reveals the general pattern of monthly temperature in Kalimantan from 2001 to 2010. It is showed that for the Min, the highest value was in May 2010 at 22.68 o C; while the lowest proportion was in August 2004 at just 20.74 o C. Table 2 The general pattern of monthly Temperature in Kalimantan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Min 21.87 21.93 22.04 22.08 22.04 21.55 21.30 21.28 21.52 21.87 21.62 21.43 2001 Mean 25.50 25.37 25.79 26.15 26.38 26.09 25.81 25.93 25.77 26.00 25.83 25.39 Max 27.92 27.79 28.04 28.80 29.39 29.22 29.13 29.42 28.48 28.34 28.23 27.87 Min 21.58 21.52 21.80 21.95 22.07 21.66 21.16 20.92 21.19 21.53 21.71 21.79 2002 Mean 25.22 25.06 25.44 25.94 26.27 26.05 25.90 25.69 25.54 25.79 25.91 25.90 Max 28.03 27.88 28.09 28.37 29.20 29.32 29.50 29.16 28.58 28.28 28.37 28.59 Min 21.72 21.57 21.75 22.11 21.77 21.46 21.26 21.40 21.43 21.82 21.68 21.68 2003 Mean 25.48 25.24 25.54 26.08 26.26 25.81 25.70 25.80 25.86 25.91 25.78 25.39 Max 28.17 27.98 28.06 28.54 29.38 28.89 28.86 29.14 29.00 28.43 28.08 27.79 Min 21.68 21.64 21.99 22.10 21.92 21.11 21.26 20.74 21.30 21.37 21.67 21.69 2004 Mean 25.18 25.10 25.60 26.17 26.30 25.96 25.45 25.54 25.43 25.66 25.71 25.50 Max 27.87 27.86 28.03 28.76 29.45 29.67 28.49 29.28 28.27 28.24 28.19 28.01 Min 21.61 21.68 21.85 22.10 22.26 21.88 21.71 21.41 21.52 21.86 21.84 21.86 2005 Mean 25.06 25.31 25.54 25.93 26.33 26.36 25.98 25.85 26.00 26.02 25.86 25.68 Max 27.69 27.96 28.32 28.38 29.23 29.64 29.21 29.04 29.10 28.45 28.12 28.29 Min 21.81 22.02 21.94 22.04 21.99 21.70 21.58 21.25 21.45 21.78 21.66 22.17 2006 Mean 25.21 25.38 25.56 25.87 26.10 25.87 25.93 25.79 25.63 25.75 25.70 25.90 Max 27.71 27.75 27.89 28.27 28.97 28.91 29.25 29.16 28.41 28.20 28.26 28.23 Min 22.06 21.90 22.03 22.28 22.21 22.08 21.62 21.38 21.52 21.86 21.60 21.96 2007 Mean 25.44 25.13 25.55 25.91 26.14 26.14 25.80 25.62 25.74 25.76 25.45 25.50 Max 28.02 27.54 27.75 28.24 28.79 29.23 29.03 28.86 28.62 28.09 27.54 28.03 Min 21.64 21.73 21.78 22.08 21.88 21.81 21.43 21.52 21.79 21.93 22.04 21.97 2008 Mean 25.18 25.06 25.20 25.78 25.95 25.79 25.47 25.52 25.86 25.87 25.89 25.59 Max 27.45 27.57 27.43 28.11 28.61 28.66 28.47 28.30 28.71 28.41 28.09 28.00 Min 21.60 21.83 21.82 22.06 22.20 21.65 21.49 21.70 21.84 21.92 21.91 21.88 2009 Mean 25.05 25.18 25.55 26.21 26.34 26.15 25.95 25.90 26.04 25.88 25.90 25.55 Max 27.43 27.60 27.70 28.78 29.01 29.43 29.24 28.79 28.82 28.24 28.38 27.97 Min 21.65 22.07 22.27 22.59 22.68 22.13 21.92 21.78 21.78 22.01 21.84 21.67 2010 Mean 25.40 25.58 25.83 26.39 26.73 26.37 26.01 25.95 25.96 26.08 25.84 25.39 Max 27.84 28.07 28.17 28.76 29.43 29.45 28.87 28.84 28.66 28.55 28.22 27.80 The value of Mean, on the other hand, reached its highest proportion in May 2010 and its lowest proportion in January 2009 with about 26.72 o C and 25.04 o C respectively. The Max, however, had its maximal temperature in June 2004 with 29.67 o C and its minimal temperature in February 2008 with 27.43 o C.

4.3 Precipitation