J. Munksgaard, K.A. Pedersen r Energy Economics 22 2000 423]440 428
Ž .
y 1
I y A is the 117 = 117 Leontief inverse matrix;
C is a 117 = 66 matrix of the composition of consumption commodity
aggregates, i.e. 66 private consumption commodity aggregates appor- tioned by production sectors;
c is 66 = 1 vector of aggregate commodity mix in private consumption, i.e.
demand for 66 commodities per unit of total consumption; and c
N
denotes a scalar of total private consumption. Ž .
According to model 4 , indirect CO emissions change as a consequence of
2
Ž .
y 1
N
changes in seven factors: F, M , R , I y A , C, c, and c . Whereas C, c, and
p p
c
N
are factors of consumer behaviour, i.e. demand for consumption commodities, Ž
.
y 1
F , M , R , I y A
are factors of behaviour of the firm, i.e. demand for inputs in
p p
the energy supply sector and other production sectors. The total change in emissions from time t y 1 until time t is
y 1
N
Ž . Ž
. Ž
. E t y E t y
1 s D F q D M q D R q D I y A q
DC q Dc q Dc
p p
p p
Ž . 5
where: Ž
D F is the emission factor effect or effect of fuel mix changes in energy
. production ;
D M is the effect of fuel mix changes in the production sectors;
p
D R is the effect of changes in energy intensities;
p
Ž .
y 1
D I y A is the input mix effect;
DC is the effect of changes in mix within aggregated commodities;
Dc is the effect of changes in mix between aggregated commodities in
private consumption; and Dc
N
is the effect of change in total consumption level. Again, each element in the decomposition formula has the same general form.
Ž .
Using the effect of changes in energy intensity D R as an example, this element
p
is
y 1
Ž .
Ž .
Ž . Ž
. Ž
. Ž . Ž .
D R s 1r2 F t y 1 M t y 1 a R t y R t y 1 I y A
t C t
Ž .
p p
p p
y 1
N
Ž . Ž .
Ž . Ž .
Ž . Ž
. Ž
. c t c
t q 1r2 F t
M t a R t y R
t y 1
I y A
Ž .
p p
p
Ž .
Ž .
N
Ž .
Ž .
C t y 1 c t y 1 c
t y 1
5a where a denotes element by element multiplication.
3. Data
The data used for the analysis are:
v
Danish input]output tables for the years 1966]1992 from Statistics Denmark,
J. Munksgaard, K.A. Pedersen r Energy Economics 22 2000 423]440 429
Ž .
tables documented in Statistics Denmark, 1986 . The tables encompass 117 production sectors and nine categories of final demand. One of the latter is
private consumption, which is divided into 66 components, five of which are direct energy consumption by households.
v
Energy-flow matrices for the years 1966]1992 from Statistics Denmark contain-
ing energy consumption for the 117 production sectors as well as for five Ž
categories of household consumption matrices documented in Statistics Den- .
mark, 1983 . Energy demand is reported for 25 types of energy in both monetary, physical and calorific terms. The latter is used in the present study
as emission factors are given relative to calorific terms. Ž
.
v
Supplementary statistics of renewable energy wood, straw, refuse and others Ž
. from Ministry of Environment and Energy Danish Energy Agency, 1997 . The
energy flows from Statistics Denmark lack a complete inventory of renewable energy, which underestimates energy consumption by households and power
plants. For present purposes the energy flow matrices from Statistics Denmark have been extended with data on consumption of renewable energy, increasing
Ž .
the number of energy types from 25 to 30 cf. Munksgaard et al., 1998 .
v
CO emission factors
for the 22 primary fuels are part of the European
2
Ž .
CORINAIR database Fenhann et al., 1997 . The factors are calculated on the basis of the carbon content of the fuels. Emission factors for the converted
Ž .
energy types electricity, district heating and gas have previously been calcu- lated from the primary emission factors and the energy inputs to the energy
Ž .
production sector Munksgaard et al., 1998 . Finally, CO emission factors for
2
renewable energy types are considered to be zero, as it is assumed that CO
2
emissions from, e.g. straw and wood are absorbed in new biomass production. While the data concerning input]output tables and CO emission factors are
2
quite robust, there is some uncertainty associated with some of the energy flows, especially during the period 1966]1975. Moreover, the description of joint produc-
tion of heat and electricity in power plants suffers from some weaknesses concern- ing estimation of input demand.
In the Danish input]output tables, no specific knowledge on foreign technology is incorporated. Thus, with regard to imported goods, an important assumption is
made: Foreign technology is assumed to be identical to Danish technology. This assumption entails considerable uncertainty, as 20 of the total CO emissions
2
Ž .
3
direct and indirect from households take place abroad.
4. Results
