National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation RAN-API - Synthesis Report
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RAN-RAN-API is developed by referring to the existing study documents and govenrment work plans. The development began with a review of the existing documents, identify the risks of
climate change on various areas of life, and set goals, objectives, strategies, as well as action plans to anticipate the risks of climate change in the future which are synchronized with the
Line Ministries work programs.
RAN-API document consists of national adaptation actions that will be implemented within the next 1-2 years 2013 – 2014 and actions that will be mainstreamed to the next RPJMN 2015-
2019 and 2020-2025. RAN-API document that has been developed will then be reviewed periodically to continue to be improved with a more specific scientific studies.
National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation RAN-API - Synthesis Report
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Development of RAN-API is based on a scientific belief on climate change itself. One of the
important scientific basis is the fourth assessment report AR4, published by the IPCC in 2007. By using a variety of observational data and the output of global climate models GCM,
the report confirms the role of contribution of human activities anthropogenic factors in increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases GHGs in the atmosphere is accelerating the
rate of global average surface temperature increase up to 0.74 ° C or approximately ± 0.18° over the period of 1906-2005 IPCC, 2007. Trend of increasing global temperatures global
warming is believed to have caused climate change in various places in the world today.
2.1 Analysis of Climate Change in Indonesia Based Observation Data
2.1.1 Trend in Surface Temperature Changes
Effect of global warming to the increase in surface temperature in Indonesia is estimated to not be greater than 1.0° C during the 20th century.
An accurate estimation is difficult to obtain due to the lack of consistent data recording in Indonesia territory.
Trends in annual average temperature for land areas
in Indonesia, based on data from the CRU TS3.1. CRU
data is one of the global climate database of the
University of East Anglia, often used as an alternative
to local observational data
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT IN INDONESIA
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National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation RAN-API - Synthesis Report
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2.1.2 Trend in Rainfall Changes
According to several studies that compare January rainfall on the period of 1980-2010 to the 1961-1990 baseline data, the change in the average rainfall value is not uniform for
Indonesia. The average rainfall for the period of 1980 – 2010 for most of Sumatra Island is increasing about 10-50 mm compared to 1961 - 1990. As for other areas, there are areas which
average rainfall value is increasing, but some are decreasing.
Examples of the results of rainfall trends analysis in January from GPCC data: a the average baseline value of 1961-1990 baseline and b the difference in the average value of the period
1980-2010 data until 2007 compared with the baseline Bappenas, 2010c.
2.1.3 Trend in Sea Level Rise
Data from Simple Ocean Data AssimilationSODA shows the characteristic of Indonesia’s sea level rise SLR with the 30-50 years pattern 1860-1910, 1910-1950, 1950-1990 or multi-
decade variations decadal. This data also shows that Indonesia’s SLR is about 0.8 mmyear and increasing to 1.6 mmyear since 1960 and then jumped to 7 mmyear in 1993.
Average SLR anomalous variations in Indonesian waters in 1860-2010, which
is calculated from SODA data full green line, ROMS-SODA red dashed line,
and altimeter blue dotted line. It also shown the linear trend lines calculated
for each data.
2.1.4 Trend in Extreme Weather and Climate Events
Extreme weather and climate events are an intrinsic part of the climate system that are irregular chaotic. On the other hand, climate change is allegedly has the potential to increase
the frequency of extreme events in various regions of the world. The trend of change in the odds of daily extreme rainfall based on CDF analysis of TRMM
satellite data indicates an increased chance of daily extreme rainfall in most parts of Indonesia,
