National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation RAN-API - Synthesis Report
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Studies on changes in the odds of extreme events in the Indonesian territory are more focused on extreme rainfall events. As for the extreme events related to the temperature change such
as heat waves, do not show a significant trend at least up to 2050, either according to the study
of historical data such as that written by Manton et al, 2001, as well as GCM studies.
2.3 Potential Impacts of Climate Change
Theoretically, the change in climate indicators such as surface temperature, precipitation, sea surface temperature, sea level, extreme climate events ENSO, IOD, DMI, IPO, and extreme
weather events heavy rain, strong storm winds, and storm surge which have been projected above will give rise to a variety of potential impacts on areas related to national development
system whether in terms of economic , livelihood, ecosystem, as well as special regions.
Climate change impacts in Indonesia have been studies quite a lot eventhough the scope of the studies are generally still in national scale. The two main references which can be used are
the Indonesia Climate Change Sectoral Roadmap ICCSR developed by Bappenas and Second National Communication SNC developed by KLH, both in 2010.
In ICCSR, it was mentioned that the potential impacts of climate hazards can affect the key sectors such as water, marine and fisheries, health, agriculture, and forestry. In the water
sector, climate change may lead to the four major hazard, i.e., decrease in water availability, floods, landslides, and droughts which are generally caused by the parameters of rainfall and
extreme weather and climate events. ICCSR and SNC documents have identified the distribution of major climate change hazard
risks level in Indonesia. Java, Bali and Sumatra islands are mentioned as three areas that have high and very high risk compared to other regions.The risk is associated with a high degree of
vulnerability caused by population, residential areas, and infrastructure in the three regions.
The level of climate change risks in Indonesia by region modified from the data of ICCSR and SNC documents
Risks Sumatra
Java-Bali Kalimantan
Sulawesi Nusa
Tenggara Maluku
Papua
Decrease in water availability
M, H, VH H, VH
L, M H, VH
H, VH L, M
L Flood
H, VH H, VH
L, M, H L, M, H
L L
L, M Drought
H, VH H, VH
L L, M
L, M, VH L
L Coastal
inundation M, H
M, H, VH M, H, VH
M, H M, H
M, H M, H
The spread of dengue fever
L, M, H L, M, H
L, M L, M
L, M L, M
L, M, H The spread of
Malaria L, M
L, M, H L, M
L, M, H L, M, H, VH
M, H M, H, VH
The spread of Diarrhea
L, M, H L, M, H
L, M, H L, M, H
L, M, H L, M, H
L, M, H, VH Decrease in rice
production H, VH
H, VH -
- H, VH
- -
Forest fires M, H, VH
M, H -
- -
- -
Note: L: Low; M: Moderate; H: High; VH: Very High
