CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE

The commercial aviation world is always evolving. Our role as applied psychologists is to respond to the operational challenges posed. One of the greatest safety concerns at the moment is the outsourcing of many aspects of the operation that would normally be undertaken by the airline itself (e.g., baggage-handling, aircraft maintenance, and crew-training). This is especially prevalent in the low-cost operators. In the near future, there will

be the introduction of the Very Large Transport Aircraft, which will create considerable challenges for crew coordination in an emergency. The physical arrangement of airspace will also alter dramatically in the next decade with the introduction of free flight or direct routing. The fastest growing region for air transport at the moment is China and South East Asia, parts of the world with a historically poor aviation accident record and also a very different culture fromthat of Western Europe and North America.

In all these areas, I/O psychology has a considerable amount to offer. The technology and structural integrity in modern aircraft is now so well- developed that there are few failures in these areas. The vast majority of aircraft accidents now have a human cause to them. As noted earlier, human error is now the primary risk to flight safety (CAA, 1998c). However, it has to be emphasized that perhaps the greatest challenges are operating within regulatory structures that limit the scope for major changes and gaining international agreement for system-wide change. Although these structures have served the industry well, the pilot works within a wider system and many aspects of the regulations do not encourage system- In all these areas, I/O psychology has a considerable amount to offer. The technology and structural integrity in modern aircraft is now so well- developed that there are few failures in these areas. The vast majority of aircraft accidents now have a human cause to them. As noted earlier, human error is now the primary risk to flight safety (CAA, 1998c). However, it has to be emphasized that perhaps the greatest challenges are operating within regulatory structures that limit the scope for major changes and gaining international agreement for system-wide change. Although these structures have served the industry well, the pilot works within a wider system and many aspects of the regulations do not encourage system-

Working with the aviation authorities to revise regulations and regulatory processes (especially when multi-national agreement is required) is a slow process. For example, the consultative process and the new certification requirements for human factors design approval for aircraft flight decks commenced with the announcement in the Federal Register in July 1999. At the time of writing, it is anticipated that new requirements may be im- plemented in Europe in the first half of 2005. However, the net safety benefits fromsuch contributions are potentially great and worldwide. The applied psychologist working with an airline may make a much swifter contribution; however, their safety impact will be more localised. These psychologists are also under considerable pressure, though, to investigate and develop new working practises to increase efficiency (i.e., reduce costs) while maintaining safety standards, a challenge not faced by those working with the regulator. As an example, airlines are looking at the effects of fatigue on flexible roster- ing practises; placing less emphasis on formal, classroom/simulator-based training; increasing emphasis on e-learning; and reducing the number of cabin crew.

There is also a further challenge for I/O psychology, especially for those working in academia purporting to develop theory and publish worthy research. Aviation safety is a requirements-driven process, not a theory-driven process. Safety concerns exist in the ‘here and now’ and the research required to address these concerns often cannot wait for a body of knowledge to accrue or a theory to be developed. Academic-based I/O psychology research has been poor at responding in such situations. By the time a research proposal has been developed, the work completed, reports written, papers submitted to a journal for peer review and published, three years commonly have elapsed. This timescale is unacceptable in the commercial world where safety is concerned. The low-cost carrier (Bennett, 2003) has raised concerns about occupational stress and flight safety in crews of low-cost carriers. In the four years prior to 2003, easyJet, one of the major European low-cost carriers, grew from carrying 6 million passengers, to over 20 million (see http:// www.easyjet.com/EN/about/infopack_passengerstats.html). Ryanair (easyJet’s main competitor) grew from carrying 5.6 million passengers in 2000

to 15.7 million in 2003 (see http://www.ryanair.com/investor/results/ resultsjune_03.html). Safety research must keep pace. On a different note, the criteria being employed by journals for the acceptance of manuscripts, even those that claim to publish work in the applied domain, in terms of study design, statistical analysis, bounding of the research, etc., are becoming of a level and nature such that much applied work is now not worthy of ‘academic’ publication. This applies throughout applied psychology, not just in the aviation safety domain. As a result, a great deal of the valuable safety research undertaken is now not even submitted for

CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE