In this study, I will confine the analysis to OECD countries. This has two methodological advantages. First, it will provide a relatively consistent sample of
countries to be used in testing a wide range of models though, in some cases, missing observations will force the exclusion of one or more of these countries.
Second, it will mitigate, to some extent, problems of comparability of educational data. However, it should be stressed even at this point that educational systems do
differ even among OECD countries. For example, as Maddison 1991 notes, standardized tests of cognitive achievement are usually much lower in the U.S. than
in other industrialized countries at the same grade level. Moreover, some countries, such as Germany, have an extensive system of apprentice training integrated with
part-time education, which is not reflected in the figures for formal schooling.
6
Thus, comparisons of standard measures of formal schooling even in this select sample of countries must be interpreted cautiously. We shall return to this point
again in the conclusion of the chapter. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: The following section
Section 2 provides descriptive statistics on productivity levels and on educational enrollment and attainment for OECD countries. Section 3 reports econometric
results on the effects of educational enrollment and attainment levels on per capita income growth. Section 4 analyzes the role of the growth in educational capital on
productivity and output growth. Section 5 investigates evidence on interactive effects between education and RD. Implications are outlined in the concluding
part.
2. Comparative statistics among OECD countries
We begin with measures of real GDP 1985 dollar equivalents per worker RGDPW. Computations for 1950 – 1990 are based on the variable RGDPW from
Penn World Table PWT Mark 5.6 see Summers and Heston, 1991, for a description of the database. Computations for 1995 are based on the variables
GDPD Gross Value Added in US Dollars and ET Total Employment from the OECD ISDB International Intersectoral Database for 14 OECD countries. The
PWT figures for 1990 are used as benchmarks, and the figures are updated to 1995 on the basis of the growth rate of labor productivity for 1990 – 1995 computed from
the ISDB data.
The now familiar convergence story is evident. The coefficient of variation the ratio of standard deviation to mean among the 24 OECD countries listed in Table
1 declines by more than half between 1950 and 1990. Results are also shown for a sample of Industrial Market Economies IMEs, as classified by the World Bank,
which consists of all OECD countries except Greece, Portugal, and Turkey. Convergence is even stronger among this group, with the coefficient of variation
falling by almost two-thirds. The 14 ISDB countries are by and large the biggest
6
The OECD has recently changed this in their published education figures and now counts German apprentices as enrolled in full-time post-secondary education.
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Table 1 Real GDP per worker RGDPW in OECD countries, 1950–1996 figures are in 1000s, 1985 Dollar Equivalents
a
Annual Growth Rate 1996
1950 1950–90
1950–96 1960
1970 1980
1990 32.7
1.59 1.58
27.3 30.3
25.2 19.3
16.1 Australia
26.7 5.9
3.79 10.7
18.0 23.5
Austria 34.6
2.66 2.56
31.7 10.9
14.3 Belgium
27.7 22.2
34.4 16.1
36.1 1.89
1.79 19.5
24.9 28.7
Canada 21.5
25.0 27.5
2.09 2.07
Denmark 10.8
14.8 20.0
21.8 27.4
32.4 3.41
3.41 Finland
7.0 11.6
17.0 32.1
3.10 2.88
30.4 21.6
13.5 26.8
France 8.8
29.5 7.3
31.9 3.48
3.27 13.9
21.3 27.3
Germany, West 15.5
17.7 4.09
Greece 3.4
5.2 10.9
25.0 8.7
2.64 12.6
15.6 22.5
Iceland 3.34
24.1 Ireland
6.3 18.4
13.2 8.4
30.8 6.3
34.5 3.97
3.78 11.1
19.4 26.8
Italy 23.4
Japan 5.41
2.6 4.89
5.0 11.5
16.3 22.6
2.46 37.9
28.5 25.4
Luxembourg 14.2
18.8 31.2
11.4 33.1
2.52 2.37
17.1 25.4
29.2 Netherlands
25.4 17.4
0.95 21.3
24.1 24.6
New Zealand 34.4
2.64 2.71
29.2 25.3
Norway 19.4
14.3 10.2
11.3 16.6
4.34 Portugal
2.9 4.9
8.4 4.16
26.4 Spain
5.0 21.4
16.6 8.2
28.4 13.2
32.8 1.91
2.02 17.4
23.2 24.9
Sweden Switzerland
15.0 1.96
20.1 27.2
29.5 32.8
3.85 8.6
1.9 Turkey
6.7 4.8
3.2 26.8
11.7 28.8
2.08 2.01
14.8 18.6
21.2 United Kingdom
31.7 36.8
38.8 1.46
1.42 20.5
United States 24.4
30.5 Summary statistics
:
All
24
OECD countries 27.3
Mean 13.5
9.7 23.3
19.3 6.3
5.0 5.6
6.2 6.0
Std. Deviation
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Table 1 Continued Annual Growth Rate
1996 1950–90
1950 1950–96
1960 1970
1980 1990
0.26 0.23
0.32 0.41
0.51 Coeff. of Var.
− 0.93
Correlation with 1950 RGDPW Summary statistics
:
21 Industrial market economies all countries except Greece, Portugal, and Turkey
Mean 10.7
14.8 21.0
25.0 29.2
4.0 3.9
Std. Deviation 4.6
4.7 4.5
0.15 0.14
0.32 Coeff. of Var.
0.22 0.42
− 0.92
Correlation with 1950 RGDPW Summary statistics
:
ISDB-14 countries 32.4
29.6 25.5
Mean 21.4
15.1 10.9
Std. Deviation 3.7
4.4 4.4
4.3 3.9
3.5 0.11
0.12 Coeff. of Var.
0.15 0.41
0.29 0.20
Correlation with 1950 RGDPW −
0.93
a
Note
:
Sources: own computations from the Penn World Table Mark 5.6 and the OECD ISDB International Intersectoral Database. See the text for details.
OECD economies, excluding countries such as Austria, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, New Zealand, Portugal, and Turkey. As a result, the convergence results for the
ISDB countries are very similar to those for the 21 IMEs. However, after 1980, the rate of convergence in RGDPW slows markedly in all three samples.
Catch-up is also evident, as indicated by the correlation coefficient between the 1950 RGDPW level and the rate of growth of RGDPW after 1950. The correlation
coefficient is − 0.93 among all OECD countries, − 0.92 among the IMEs, and −
0.93 among the ISDB sample. The results indicate that the countries with the lowest productivity levels in 1950 experienced the fastest increase in labor
productivity. The next five table Tables 2 – 6 show measures of educational levels among
OECD countries. Table 2 shows gross enrollment rates, defined as the ratio of the number of persons enrolled in school to the population of the corresponding age
group by educational level. There was almost 100 enrollment at the primary school level and almost no variation among countries in this group. In contrast, the
average secondary school enrollment rate increased from 59 in 1950 to 94 in 1991 among all OECD countries and from 62 to 97 among the IMEs. The
standard deviation remains fairly constant over time, while the coefficient of variation falls from 0.26 in 1965 to 0.15 in 1991 among all OECD nations and from
0.20 to 0.11 among IMEs — a reflection of the rising mean.
The largest dispersion is found on the higher education level. In 1965, on average, only 13 of college-age adults were enrolled in tertiary school, with the
U.S. the highest at 40 and Turkey the lowest at 4 Spain the lowest at 6 among IMEs. However, by 1991, the average enrollment rate had tripled to 39,
with Canada now leading at 99 and Turkey the lowest at 14 Ireland the lowest at 24 among IMEs.
7
The standard deviation actually rises over time for both country samples, particularly between 1983 and 1991, while the coefficient of
variation falls from 0.56 in 1965 to 0.36 in 1983 and then increases to 0.40 among all OECD countries and falls from 0.51 to 0.27 among the IMEs between 1965 and
1983 and then shoots up to 0.40 in 1991.
8
Educational attainment rates, defined as the proportion of the population 25 and over who have attained the indicated level of schooling or greater, are shown in
Table 3 for years 1960, 1970, 1979, and 1996. A word should be said about the reliability of the data. Unlike the enrollment rate data of the preceding table, which
appear to be relatively consistent over time, there are several anomalies in the attainment rate data. At the primary school level, there appear to be substantial
declines in attainment rates for Greece and Ireland between 1960 and 1970; for Australia, Italy, the Netherlands, and the U.K. between 1970 and 1979; and for
7
The Canadian figure seems unrealistically high but that is what is reported in the various World Bank data sources.
8
If we exclude Canada, the standard deviation still rises for both country samples, though the coefficient of variation falls between 1983 and 1991 for all OECD countries and rises slightly among the
IMEs.
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Table 2 Gross enrollment rates in OECD countries by educational level, 1965, 1983 and 1991
a
Primary school Secondary school
Higher education 1965
1983 1991
1965 1983
1991 1965
1983 1991
0.82 0.16
0.26 0.39
Australia 0.99
1.05 1.07
0.62 0.92
1.04 0.09
0.25 0.35
0.74 0.52
Austria 1.06
0.99 1.07
1.02 0.15
0.28 0.38
Belgium 1.09
0.97 0.99
0.75 1.08
1.04 0.26
0.42 0.99
1.01 Canada
0.56 1.07
1.03 1.05
1.08 0.14
0.29 0.36
Denmark 0.98
1.01 0.96
0.83 1.05
1.21 0.11
0.31 0.51
1.03 Finland
0.76 0.99
1.02 0.92
1.01 0.18
0.28 0.43
France 1.34
1.08 1.07
0.56 0.89
0.99 0.09
0.30 0.36
0.74 Germany, West
0.63 1.07
1.00 1.06
0.98 0.10
0.17 0.25
Greece 1.10
1.05 0.97
0.49 0.82
0.99 0.29
0.88 0.80
Iceland 0.97
1.01 1.01
1.01 0.12
0.22 0.34
Ireland 1.08
0.97 1.03
0.51 0.93
0.76 0.11
0.26 0.32
0.75 Italy
0.47 0.94
1.03 1.12
Japan 0.97
1.00 0.13
0.30 0.31
1.00 1.02
0.82 0.94
0.74 Luxembourg
1.12 0.48
0.97 0.17
0.31 0.38
Netherlands 1.04
0.96 1.02
0.61 1.01
0.84 0.15
0.28 0.45
0.87 New Zealand
0.75 1.04
1.02 1.06
1.03 0.11
0.28 0.45
Norway 0.97
0.98 1.00
0.64 0.96
0.68 0.05
0.11 0.23
0.47 0.42
Portugal 0.84
1.22 1.22
1.08 0.06
0.24 0.36
Spain 1.15
1.11 1.09
0.38 0.90
0.91 0.13
0.39 0.34
0.85 Sweden
0.62 1.00
0.98 0.95
Switzerland 0.91
0.87 0.08
0.23 0.29
1.02 1.03
0.50 0.85
0.51 0.04
0.07 0.15
0.38 Turkey
1.01 0.16
1.10 1.12
0.85 0.92
0.86 0.12
0.20 0.28
1.01 1.04
0.66 United Kingdom
0.63 0.85
0.90 0.40
0.56 0.76
United States 1.06
1.00 1.04
Summary statistics
:
all 24 OECD countries 0.94
0.13 0.27
0.39 0.85
1.03 Mean
1.03 0.59
1.03 0.17
0.10 0.15
0.07 0.10
0.17 0.06
0.06 0.15
Std. Deviation
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Table 2 Continued Primary school
Secondary school Higher education
1965 1983
1991 1965
1983 1991
1965 1983
1991 0.26
0.19 0.15
0.56 0.36
0.40 Coeff. of Var.
0.10 0.06
0.05 23
22 22
23 24
23 Number
24 24
23 Summary statistics
:
21 Industrial market economies all countries except Greece, Portugal, and Turkey
0.97 0.15
0.30 0.42
0.62 1.01
1.03 0.90
Mean 1.04
0.10 0.10
0.10 0.07
0.08 0.17
0.04 0.04
Std. Deviation 0.12
0.11 Coeff. of Var.
0.51 0.09
0.27 0.40
0.04 0.04
0.20 0.11
20 19
19 20
21 20
21 20
Number 21
a
Note: The gross enrollment rate is defined as the ratio of total enrollment of students of all ages in primary school, and higher education to the population of the age group for that schooling level. The age groups vary somewhat among countries, depending on the normal age coverage of that country
for a given schooling level. The enrollement rates may therefore exceed 100 percent. Sources: World Bank, World Development Report 1988, 1994; World Bank, World Tables, 1991; and UNESCO Statistical Yearbooks, 1970 and 1996.
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Table 3 Educational attainment rates in OECD countries by level, selected years, 1960–1996
a
Primary school Secondary school
Higher education 1960
1970 1979
1996 1960
1970 1979
1996 1960
1970 1979
0.70 0.51
0.57 0.22
0.13 0.15
Australia 0.99
0.87 0.43
0.71 0.02
0.03 0.03
0.35 0.06
Austria 0.07
0.87 0.57
Belgium 0.54
0.04 0.03
0.08 0.11
0.99 0.31
0.37 0.74
0.76 0.08
0.10 0.37
0.32 0.17
0.98 0.30
Canada 0.98
0.99 0.41
0.78 0.58
0.66 0.04
0.08 0.11
0.15 0.82
1.00 0.27
Denmark 0.30
0.39 0.67
0.04 0.06
0.11 0.12
0.92 0.10
Finland 0.52
0.60 0.02
0.03 0.14
0.15 0.10
France 0.10
0.98 0.35
0.42 0.82
0.04 0.09
0.13 Germany, West
1.00 0.99
0.27 0.44
0.02 0.04
0.08 0.14
0.12 0.84
Greece 0.11
0.89 0.80
Iceland 0.36
0.87 0.46
0.50 0.04
0.05 0.07
0.11 0.85
0.92 0.19
Ireland 0.31
0.38 0.02
0.03 0.04
0.20 0.08
Italy 0.15
0.83 0.92
0.87 0.39
0.96 0.52
0.02 0.06
0.13 0.99
1.00 0.34
Japan 0.29
0.11 Luxembourg
0.57 0.63
0.01 0.07
0.15 Netherlands
0.23 0.99
0.93 0.12
0.49 0.56
0.60 0.05
0.12 0.27
0.40 0.11
New Zealand 0.26
0.99 0.99
0.95 0.30
0.91 0.82
0.02 0.07
0.11 0.16
0.99 0.98
Norway 0.16
0.37 0.20
0.01 0.02
0.05 0.08
0.08 0.82
0.05 Portugal
0.55 0.56
0.10 0.76
0.18 0.30
0.01 0.04
0.06 0.13
0.87 0.91
0.05 Spain
0.43 0.58
0.74 0.08
0.15 0.13
0.86 Sweden
0.36 0.80
0.09 0.10
0.10 Switzerland
0.31 0.62
0.95 1.00
0.12 0.17
0.01 0.02
0.03 0.06
Turkey 0.41
0.44 0.47
0.05 0.09
0.54 0.76
0.05 0.09
0.12 0.37
0.13 0.88
0.97 United Kingdom
United States 0.98
0.98 0.86
0.17 0.21
0.30 0.26
1.00 1.00
0.60 0.72
Summary statistics
:
All 24 OECD countries 0.5
0.58 0.04
0.07 0.12
0.33 0.13
Mean 0.2
0.9 0.89
0.83 0.14
0.17 0.2
0.2 0.04
0.05 0.09
0.05 Std. Deviation
0.18 0.16
0.13 0.41
0.35 0.91
0.78 0.69
0.51 0.37
0.21 Coeff. of Var.
0.7 0.14
0.18 21
12 22
22 19
21 22
22 17
22 18
Number Summary statistics
:
21 Industrial market economics all countries except Greece, Portugal, and Turkey
0.53 0.63
0.05 0.08
0.13 0.37
0.13 Mean
0.21 0.92
0.95 0.81
0.14 0.15
0.19 0.17
0.04 0.05
0.09 0.05
0.28 Std. Deviation
0.06 0.09
0.35 0.26
0.84 0.71
0.65 0.41
0.34 0.69
Coeff. of Var. 0.35
0.06 0.1
19 Number
19 9
16 18
19 19
14 19
15 18
a
Note: The educational attainment rate is defined as the proportion of the population 25 and over who have attained the indicated level of schooling or greater. The original data sources are UNESCO, Statistics of Educational Attainment and Lieteracy, 1945–1974; UNESCO Statistical Yearbook 1990; and OECD, Education at a Glance: OECD Indicators, 1998. See Wolff and Gittleman 1993 for details
on sources and methods.
Switzerland over the entire 1960 – 1979 period. Moreover, Australia’s attainment rate at the secondary school level seems to have fallen from 70 to 51 and at the
higher education level from 22 to 13 between 1970 and 1979 though both picked up a bit by 1996, whereas Norway’s secondary school rate appears to increase from
30 to 91 from 1970 to 1979 though it then fell back to 82 by 1996. In Canada, the attainment rate at the tertiary level appears to have fallen from 37 in 1979 to
only 17 in 1996, despite the huge increase in the enrollment rate at this level, and in New Zealand from 27 to 11 over the same period.
In sofar as enrollment rates have risen in all these countries between 1965 and 1983, it is hard to believe that attainment rates could have fallen. One possible
explanation is the immigration of people with low schooling levels to these countries Australia, perhaps or the emigration of highly educated individuals
Britain, perhaps. The more likely explanation is errors in the data. These figures are derived from UNESCO Yearbooks and are based on country responses to
questionnaires. There may have been changes in country reporting methods over time andor compilation errors on the part of UNESCO. In any case, I am not in
a position to improve on these results.
Despite these reservations, the overall pattern of results is quite sensible. Attain- ment rates, are, not surprisingly, lower than the corresponding enrollment rates,
since enrollment rates have been increasing over time that is, attainment rates for the adult population in a given year reflect the enrollment rates when the adults
were children. However, changes over time and differences between countries in attainment rates present a similar picture to those based on enrollment rates.
Between 1960 and 1996 1979 in the case of primary schooling, average attainment rates among the adult population rose at all three educational levels. Secondary
school attainment rates almost tripled and higher education attainment rates more than tripled. The coefficient of variation in attainment rates falls at all three
educational levels, particularly at the higher education level, though the standard deviation increases at both the secondary and tertiary levels.
Table 4 shows Kyriacou’s 1991 estimates of mean years of schooling of the labor force from 1965 to 1985. These figures are based on benchmark estimates for
mean years of schooling of the labor force for the mid-1970s, which are then updated or backdated on the basis of school enrollment rates by level in preceding
and succeeding years see the footnote to Table 4 for details on methodology. There are also some peculiarities in the data here. In both Denmark and France, for
example, mean years of schooling seems to have increased between 1965 and 1975 and then declined over the ensuing decade, while in Germany, schooling levels are
reported to have fallen slightly from 1965 to 1975.
Despite the very different sources and methods used to construct this series and the apparent anomalies in the data, the summary results are quite similar to those
on attainment rates reported in Table 3. Average years of schooling increased almost continuously between 1965 and 1985, while the dispersion in schooling levels
appears to have fallen by half from 1965 to 1980 though note that the sample of countries changes over time. It is also interesting to note that there is a slight
increase in the dispersion of mean schooling levels between 1980 and 1985.
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Table 4 Average years of schooling of the labor force in OECD countries, selected years, 1965–1985
a
1985 1965
1970 1975
1980 7.8
8.3 7.4
8.7 6.9
Australia 8.1
8.6 Austria
7.6 Belgium
9.4 8.9
8.5 8.0
10.0 8.0
9.0 9.2
9.6 Canada
6.5 6.9
7.2 8.6
Denmark 7.8
7.5 10.8
9.2 Finland
9.5 8.7
9.0 10.0
9.8 France
9.6 10.3
9.1 Germany, West
9.0 8.8
8.4 6.4
7.2 7.6
8.0 Greece
Iceland 8.6
8.0 7.5
8.8 6.3
7.2 8.1
8.5 Ireland
8.5 9.1
6.6 Italy
7.3 8.0
7.2 9.5
Japan 7.7
8.9 8.3
6.9 4.6
5.0 7.0
7.0 Luxembourg
8.9 9.5
Netherlands 7.9
8.3 9.3
8.0 7.9
8.3 8.8
New Zealand Norway
9.2 9.0
8.8 6.5
3.9 5.3
8.0 7.3
Portugal 9.7
4.1 4.9
7.1 8.4
Spain 8.1
9.6 8.8
7.2 Sweden
6.7 5.7
6.2 7.4
Switzerland 5.5
6.3 2.7
Turkey 3.1
4.6 7.9
8.5 United Kingdom
7.8 7.0
7.4 9.8
12.0 12.1
12.0 United States
10.4
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Table 4 Continued 1985
1965 1970
1975 1980
Summary statistics
:
All 24 OECD countries 8.55
8.97 Mean
6.57 7.24
8.11 Std. Deviation
1.33 1.19
1.81 1.26
1.64 0.15
0.28 0.23
0.16 0.14
Coeff. of Var. 23
18 20
24 23
Number Summary statistics
:
21 Industrial market economies all countries except Greece, Portugal, and Turkey
8.8 9.25
7.61 Mean
8.3 7.02
0.99 1.13
Std. Deviation 1.5
1.34 1.09
0.11 0.12
0.18 Coeff. of Var.
0.13 0.21
Number 15
20 20
17 21
a
Note: The source is Kyriacou 1991, pp. 61–63. The methodology is as follows: benchmark estimates for mean years of schooling of the labor force were first obtained from Psacharopoulos and Arriagada 1986 for the mid-1970s. Mean years of schooling for other years were estimated on the basis of school
enrollment rates by level in preceding and succeeding years. The labor force was then ‘aged’ backward and forward in time and school attainment estimated using the enrollment rates. A regression model was applied to estimate mean years of schooling for the mid-1970s for countries with missing benchmark data.
Table 5 shows data for a slightly different concept of mean schooling, that of the total population aged 25 and over, derived from a different source, Barro and Lee
1993. Their method is similar to Kyriacou’s. They begin with benchmark data from UNESCO sources on attainment rates by educational level and then update
or backdate the attainment figures on the basis of school enrollment rates by level in preceding and succeeding years. Their data show much greater internal consis-
tency over time than Kyriacou’s figures. However, their estimates of average schooling for some countries are much lower than the corresponding estimates from
Kyriacou compare Portugal, Spain, and Turkey, in particular. Part of the difference is, of course, that the Barro-Lee figures refer to the total population 25
and over, whereas Kyriacou’s numbers are only for the labor force. However, the discrepancies appear too large to be attributable to this difference alone.
Again, despite the differences in sources and methods, time trends are similar to those shown in Table 4. Average schooling levels rose continuously from 1960 to
1985. The coefficient of variation in schooling levels also shows a decline between 1960 and 1985, though it is much more modest than in the Kyriacou figures.
Moreover, the Barro-Lee data show dispersion declining between 1980 and 1985, whereas the Kyriacou data show it rising.
Panel A of Table 6 shows Maddison’s 1987Maddison’s 1991 estimates of mean years of schooling from 1950 to 1989 for six OECD countries: France,
Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, the U.K., and the U.S. These figures also show a sizable increase in educational attainment in the post World War II period,
beginning in 1950. On the other hand, the dispersion in schooling levels has remained almost unchanged between 1950 and 1989. However, this result appears
to be accounted for by the particular sample of six countries used the coefficient of variation of mean years of schooling among the same sample of countries on the
basis of Kyriacou’s figures is 0.11 in 1970 and 0.11 in 1985.
In summary, two important trends are evident with regard to education. First, there has been a significant increase in average schooling levels in OECD countries
since 1950, particularly at the secondary and tertiary levels primary school levels were already high at the beginning of the post World War II period. Second, the
dispersion in educational levels among the various OECD countries has declined substantially over the postwar period, particularly at the secondary level, though it
appears to have risen for enrollment rates at the higher education level during the 1980s.
Table 7 shows statistics on two indicators of the technology intensity of produc- tion. The first is the ratio of research and development RD expenditure to
GNP,
9
and the second is the number of scientists and engineers engaged in RD per 10 000 of population. Averages are shown for the 1969 – 1972 and the 1982 –
1985 periods, as well as for 1996. The ranges are considerable. In the 1969 – 1972 period, RD expenditure as a percent of GNP ranged from lows of 0.20 in Greece
and 0.25 in Spain to a high of 2.70 in the U.S. and from a low of 0.20 in Greece
9
Both public and private sources of funding are included in the tabulations.
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Table 5 Average years of schooling of the total population aged 25 and over in OECD countries, selected years, 1960–1985
a
1980 1960
1985 1965
1970 1975
10.24 10.01
10.09 10.08
8.94 8.93
Australia 3.65
6.22 6.64
4.00 5.92
Austria 6.09
9.15 7.36
8.79 Belgium
7.59 8.36
7.71 10.16
8.07 10.37
8.32 8.55
9.50 Canada
9.91 10.14
10.33 9.38
Denmark 9.51
9.63 7.45
9.61 9.49
7.78 8.33
Finland 8.81
6.52 France
5.97 5.22
4.06 4.76
4.71 8.46
7.62 8.54
7.92 8.14
8.21 Germany, West
6.56 4.42
6.73 5.02
5.19 5.85
Greece 7.89
6.86 7.40
6.37 Iceland
5.98 5.68
6.73 7.61
8.01 6.45
Ireland 6.45
6.52 6.28
Italy 5.83
5.31 4.56
5.22 4.83
8.17 6.71
8.46 6.88
6.80 7.29
Japan Luxembourg
8.57 7.90
8.20 Netherlands
7.67 5.37
5.69 12.14
9.61 12.04
9.54 9.69
11.16 New Zealand
10.32 5.63
10.38 5.86
6.76 10.19
Norway 3.83
2.07 3.23
1.21 Portugal
1.78 1.94
4.95 3.43
5.58 3.85
4.78 4.26
Spain 9.45
7.58 9.47
Sweden 7.62
7.90 7.47
9.67 6.87
9.09 6.86
6.22 6.26
Switzerland 2.12
2.62 3.29
1.95 Turkey
2.16 1.96
8.17 8.35
8.65 7.74
United Kingdom 7.27
7.32 11.79
10.14 11.89
10.77 9.36
United States 8.67
Summary statistics
:
All 24 OECD countries 7.35
8.08 8.32
6.22 Mean
6.43 6.80
2.42 2.20
2.21 2.15
2.26 2.44
Std. Deviation 0.27
Coeff. of Var. 0.30
0.35 0.33
0.33 0.33
23 23
23 23
23 23
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Table 5 Continued 1975
1980 1985
1965 1960
1970 Summary statistics
:
21 Industrial market economies all countries except Greece, Portugal, and Turkey
8.87 7.95
7.4 8.67
6.95 6.74
Mean 1.9
1.91 1.7
Std. Deviation 1.81
1.72 1.62
0.19 0.24
0.22 Coeff. of Var.
0.22 0.27
0.25 20
20 20
20 20
20 Number
a
Note: The source is: Barro and Lee 1993, Appendix Table A.2. The methodology is as follows: benchmark estimates on attainment rates by six educational levels were first obtained from UNESCO Statistical Yearbooks, various years. Attainment rates for other years were estimated on the basis of
school enrollment rates by level in preceding and succeeding years. The labor force was then ‘aged’ backward and forward in time and school attainment estimated using the enrollment rates.
to a high of 2.80 in Sweden in 1982 – 85. In 1996, the ranged went from 0.45 in Turkey to 3.59 in Sweden. The number of scientists and engineers per 10 000
inhabitants ranged from a low of 1.2 in Greece to a high of 29.7 in Japan in the first period, from 2.1 in Turkey to 43.1 in Japan in the second, and from 3.5 in Turkey
to 58.2 in Japan in 1996. Two trends are apparent. First, the average RD intensity increased between the early 1970s and 1996; and, second, the coefficient of variation
declined. The trends are stronger among the industrial market economies than among all OECD countries.
These trends appear even stronger in Panel B of Table 6, based mainly on data from Maddison 1987. Among the six countries shown here, mean RD spending
as a percentage of GDP increased from 1.82 in 1960 to 2.52 in 1987, while the coefficient of variation falls from 0.35 to 0.09. Thus, the RD intensity of
production is becoming more similar among this group of OECD countries.
On the surface, at least, there appears to be a direct relation between schooling levels and labor productivity levels, as reported in Table 1. First, the convergence
in educational levels among OECD countries appears to correspond to the conver- gence in labor productivity levels over the post World War II period. Second, the
Table 6 Maddison data on education and RD expenditures for six OECD countries, 1950–1989, selected
years A. A6erage years of Formal Education of the Population Aged 15–64
a
1973 1950
1989 1984
9.6 8.2
10.8 11.6
France 9.5
9.6 Germany
8.5 9.3
Japan 11.7
11.2 10.2
8.1 9.9
8.9 10.5
7.4 Netherlands
10.9 11.3
United Kingdom 9.4
10.2 9.5
11.3 United States
12.5 13.4
8.51 9.92
Mean 10.80
11.34 Std. Deviation
1.17 0.97
0.78 0.73
Coeff. of Var. 0.09
0.08 0.09
0.10 B. RD Expenditures as a of GDP
b
1983 1960
1987 1973
2.1 1.8
France 2.3
1.3 1.0
2.1 Germany
2.6 2.8
Japan 1.4
2.0 2.5
2.8 2.3
2.0 2.0
Netherlands 1.9
2.1 United Kingdom
2.3 2.4
2.5 United States
2.4 2.7
2.7 2.6
2.38 Mean
2.52 1.82
2.05 Std. Deviation
0.19 0.25
0.23 0.63
Coeff. of Var. 0.09
0.11 0.09
0.35
a
Sources. 1950–1984: Maddison 1987; 1987: Maddison 1991.
b
Sources. 1960–1983: Maddison 1987; 1987: UNESCO Statistical Yearbook,
1990
.
452
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Table 7 Research and Development RD intensity of production in OECD countries, 1960–1972 and 1973–1989
a
Scientists and Engineers engaged in Expenditures for RD as a of
GNP RD per 10 000 population
1996 1982–1985
1996 1969–1972
1969–1972 1982–1985
18.6 1.40
31.5 1.30
1.68 11.5
Australia 16.2
0.60 10.1
Austria 1.30
3.9 1.52
7.9 1.20
22.1 1.70
1.59 10.4
Belgium 10.1
14.1 27.0
1.25 Canada
1.43 1.64
15.7 1.00
32.3 1.25
2.01 11.3
Denmark 34.4
Finland 35.4
10.0 0.85
2.58 1.47
18.7 1.87
27.5 2.30
2.32 11.7
France 22.7
2.05 28.7
2.60 2.29
14.4 Germany, West
7.6 1.2
2.5 0.48
Greece 0.20
0.20 6.3
13.5 32.6
0.40 Iceland
0.80 1.51
22.3 Ireland
9.1 5.8
0.75 1.39
0.85 10.7
1.03 13.0
1.17 1.03
5.4 Italy
29.7 43.1
58.2 Japan
2.63 1.83
2.83 Luxembourg
21.9 2.20
22.2 2.03
2.09 16.6
Netherlands 15.8
0.50 16.6
0.90 0.97
4.1 New Zealand
37.2 11.7
20.3 1.71
Norway 1.40
1.18 2.6
3.2 10.8
0.35 Portugal
0.40 0.58
11.6 Spain
4.0 2.2
0.25 0.87
0.50 24.2
1.45 40.5
2.80 3.59
10.9 Sweden
Switzerland 27.7
2.05 2.20
2.74 23.1
21.0 3.5
0.30 2.1
1.8 Turkey
0.45 0.40
15.5 2.15
24.7 2.20
1.94 10.9
United Kingdom 26.1
30.7 36.4
United States 2.65
2.70 2.62
Summary statistics
:
All 24 OECD countries 25.25
Mean 16.97
1.20 1.50
10.49 1.76
10.37 0.72
12.15 0.78
0.80 7.44
Std. Deviation
453 E
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Table 7 Continued Scientists and Engineers engaged in
Expenditures for RD as a of RD per 10 000 population
GNP 1996
1982–1985 1996
1969–1972 1969–1972
1982–1985 0.48
Coeff. of Var. 0.61
0.60 0.45
0.52 0.71
Number 23
23 23
23 23
23 Summary statistics
:
21 Industrial market economies all countries except Greece, Portugal, and Turkey
27.94 11.79
1.95 1.67
19.13 Mean
1.33 0.67
9.37 10.63
0.68 0.68
Std. Deviation 7.12
Coeff. of Var. 0.38
0.50 0.41
0.35 0.60
0.49 20
20 20
20 20
20 Number
a
Note: The original data sources are UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1963–1990 and the OECD ANBERD database, 1998 version. Period averages are shown for 1969–72 and 1982–85. See Gittleman and Wolff 1995 for details on sources and methods for the 1960–89 data.
increase in schooling levels seems to correspond to the growth in labor productivity over this period. Moreover, as productivity and educational levels were growing
and converging among OECD countries, so was their RD intensity of production. We now turn to regression analysis to analyze these relations more systematically.
3. Catch-up models
