113
Lampiran 8 lanjutan SEPTEMBER
OKTOBER
NOVEMBER
DESEMBER
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Ra te
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
114
115
Lampiran 9 Grafik Skill Peramalan Model VARX
untuk Stasiun Salamdarma JANUARI
PEBRUARI
MARET
APRIL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Ra
te
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
H it
R a
te
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
116
Lampiran 9 lanjutan MEI
JUNI
JULI
AGUSTUS
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
H it
R at
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
117
Lampiran 9 lanjutan SEPTEMBER
OKTOBER
NOVEMBER
DESEMBER
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Ra
te
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
118
119
Lampiran 10 Grafik Skill Peramalan Model Aditif VARX
untuk Stasiun Gantar JANUARI
PEBRUARI
MARET
APRIL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Ra
te
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
120
Lampiran 10 lanjutan MEI
JUNI
JULI
AGUSTUS
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
H it
R at
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
H it
R at
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
121
Lampiran 10 lanjutan SEPTEMBER
OKTOBER
NOVEMBER
DESEMBER
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Ra
te
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
122
123
Lampiran 11 Grafik Skill Peramalan Model VARX
untuk Stasiun Gantar JANUARI
PEBRUARI
MARET
APRIL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Ra te
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
124
Lampiran 11 lanjutan MEI
JUNI
JULI
AGUSTUS
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Hit
Rat e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
125
Lampiran 11 lanjutan SEPTEMBER
OKTOBER
NOVEMBER
DESEMBER
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Ra
te
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Ra
te
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate ABOVE NORMAL
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
Hit Rat
e
False Alarm Rate BELOW NORMAL
126
iii
ABSTRACT
DEWI RETNO SARI SAPUTRO. Additive Vector Autoregressive Exogenous Model for Forecasting Rainfall in Indramayu. Dibimbing oleh AHMAD
ANSORI MATTJIK. RIZALDI BOER, AJI HAMIM WIGENA, dan ANIK DJURAIDAH.
Problems in developing a model to forecast rainfall in Indramayu are the existence of missing data, outliers, high variability between rainfall stations.
Zoning is a way to accommodate the variability of rainfall stations. Zoning resulted in three regions, i.e. region 1 consists of stations Anjatan, Bugel, Tulung
Kacang, Karang Asem, Lawang Semut, Wanguk, Gabus Wetan, Cikedung, Kroya, Sukadana, Sumur Watu, Tugu, Bondan; region 2 consists of stations
Salamdarma and Gantar; and region 3 consists of stations Cidempet, Losarang, Bangkir, Indramayu, Jatibarang, Juntinyuat, Kedokan Bunder, Lohbener, Sudi
Mampir, Krangkeng, and SudiKampiran. Vector Autoregressive Exogenous VARX Additive models were developed for each region. This model is based
on VARX lag 1 or VARX 1 model, smoothing spline, and the rainfall indicator variable. VARX 1 model was developed from the VAR 1 model by adding
the exogenous factors that affect rainfall such as Sea Surface Temperature SST Nino 3.4, Southern Oscillation Index SOI, and Dipole Mode Index DMI. The
reliability of VARX additive model especially for region 2 is evaluated by Relative Operating Characteristics ROC curve. The model is reliable only in
January, February, March, April, November, and December. Keywords : smoothing spline, indicator variable, VAR, VARX,
additive VARX, ROC
