Livelihood Diversiication Avoiding and reducing loss and damage

Policy solutions 49 early warning systems Cutter et al., 2012; Shamsuddoha, 2013b. One of the challenges in early warning is insuring early action to avoid loss and damage. Forecast-based inance FbF is an innovative funding mechanism that releases funds during the window of opportunity between a science-based early warning and the potential disaster that could follow Red CrossRed Crescent Centre, 2015. Taking advantage of this opportunity could avert or at the very least minimize a disaster through short-term to medium-term preparedness actions implemented before a possible disaster. Examples include distributing mosquito nets before the onset of heavy rains or positioning relief teams before roads close or wash out Coughlan de Perez et al., 2015. FbF uses forecasts issued at diferent lead times, from days to months, before the potential disaster manifests. Historically, this period of opportunity has rarely been exploited, with an estimated 88 percent of humanitarian inancing disbursed after a disaster has already begun Kellet and Caravani, 2013. However, given that the magnitude of extreme weather events is projected to increase and the gap between humanitarian aid and the needs on the ground is widening, there is a need to take advantage of this window. Humanitarian agencies can get information about when and where extreme-weather events like storms, loods, and droughts are expected. Many humanitarian actions could be implemented in the window between a forecast and a disaster, given the proper inancing. This would reduce costs and needs after the event. Funding used in FbF would be sourced from an already established fund with inancial procedures in place that would allow for the rapid disbursement of inancing based on predeined thresholds Coughlan de Perez et al., 2015. Since 2012, the World Food Programme and German Red Cross established several pilot projects in Asia, Latin America, and Africa. Standard operating procedures for FbF include a scientiic threshold based on one or several forecast models and decide on the moment when the system wants to act and with which kind of actions. Since the system is standardized, disaster managers will not be blamed if the disaster does not materialize. Occasionally acting in vain is accepted, knowing that the costs are still signiicantly greater if the system is not taking early actions in a situation of increasing risk. Similar to the fundamental culture change that is required for donors and decision makers to take action based on a forecast, there is a culture change required in the way that thresholds in forecasts are perceived by the various stakeholders. This will likely include the National Figure 4.3.1 Diagram of an early warning system. Source: UNEP 2015