Impacts of climate change on ecosystem services
12 Woodworth et al., 2010. For instance, Booji 2005
predicts that in the Meuse river basin in Europe will see a small decrease in the average discharge but an increase
in variability and extremes of discharge. Regardless of the speciic direction of change, it is clear that climate
change will afect the ecosystem service of lood regulation.
2.2.2 Disease Regulation
Climate change will also afect human health, particularly in relation to infectious disease such as malaria,
salmonellosis, cholera, and giardiasis Wu et al., 2016. Climate change disrupts temperature, precipitation,
and wind speeds that inluence the generation and distribution of infectious disease pathogens and their
vectors. For example, as temperatures rise, insects currently constrained to warmer regions may extend
their range to higher latitudes and altitudes. But hard limits exist as well. The development of the malaria
parasite Plasmodium falciprum and Plasmodim vivax stops between 33 to 39° C Wu et al., 2016. Ryan et al.
2015 used physiological responses of the mosquito malaria vector Anopheles gambiae to map future
distribution of P. falciprum malaria in Africa. The authors predict that modest increase in the overall area suitable
for malaria transmission, but an overall decrease in the human population at highest risk for malaria. Another
study predicts a decreased length of malaria season in West Africa, in part due to an overall drying and
warming trend resulting from human degradation of vegetation rather than climate change Ermert et
al., 2013. The authors note that, many factors afect malaria infection and some counteract the efects of
climate change Ermert et al., 2013. These include economic development, inance for malaria control, and
increased distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets. But in East Africa, higher temperatures are predicted to
lead to longer transmission seasons and an increase in highland malaria Ermert et al., 2013. Finally, changes
in the frequency of extreme weather may afect disease outbreaks, although with mixed results or associations
Wu et al., 2016.
2.3 Example of climate change impacts on supporting services
2.3.1 Primary Productivity
Climate change is also afecting ecosystem productivity. Many organisms are responding to global warming
by shifting their distribution ranges and altering their phenological cycles such as growing, breeding,
lowering, hatching, migrating, and hibernating Hurlbert and Liang, 2012; Visser et al., 2015. The efect
of climate change on net primary productivity NPP has been assessed, with mixed results. Some studies indicate
warming will increase global NPP while others predict NPP decreases. These diferent results may relect
Figure 2.2.1 Projections of global mean sea level rise over 21
st
century.
Source: IPCC 2013
Impacts of climate change on ecosystem services
13 seasonality Wang et al., 2016. In the summer, most
arid and semi-arid regions of China show a negative correlation between temperature and NPP, while in the
spring the correlation may be positive in certain regions. Temperature rise strengthens evapotranspiration and
reduces soil moisture, which can result in drought and can limit growth during the summer. The authors found
that an increase in precipitation is more beneicial to plant growth Hao et al., 2016. Liu et al. 2014 found
that changes in extreme events also afect NPP. A vicious winter storm and extremely low temperatures in early
2008 resulted in a drastic decrease of NPP in forest and grass ecosystems in China’s Hunan province Liu et al.,
2014. Studies related to primary productivity, as with disease and lood regulation and food production, may
indicate that trends and luctuations related to climate change and extreme events have diferent, very locally
speciic, impacts on ecosystem services.
2.4 Example of climate change impact on cultural services
Cultural services comprise a range of largely non- consumptive uses of the environment including the
spiritual, religious, aesthetic, and inspirational wellbeing that people derive from the natural world; the value to
science of an opportunity to study and learn from that world; and the market beneits of recreation and tourism.
Coral reefs ofer an example of potential consequences of climate change for cultural services provided by
ecosystems. Bleaching events in the past three decades have already caused declines in coral across the Great
Barrier Reef Ainsworth et al., 2016. Global warming and ocean acidiication are likely to result in the widespread
loss of coral reefs within a century Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007. Coral reefs are an important draw for tourism and
source of recreation in many coastal countries Hoegh- Guldberg et al., 2007. Lane et al. 2015 conclude that
climate change “could result in a signiicant loss of value associated with the diverse ecosystem services these
habitats provide, including tourism, commercial harvest, and existence i.e. non-use values.” However, the
efects are complex. Tourism itself–including boating, snorkelling and diving–can damage reefs UNEP, 2016
and there is evidence that reefs may have a natural ability to tolerate stress. Ainsworth et al. 2016 conclude:
Our analysis reveals that the exposure to sub-lethal pre-stress events varies dramatically among reefs, with
some having an inherent level of ‘protection from’ or ‘preparedness for’ the conditions that induce coral
bleaching, whereas others experience multiple stress
Field in Burkina Faso.
Photo Credit: Zinta Zommers
