Basic model and decision framework

measurement of the net value in all uses. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and estimate the value of land as a pollutant sink under differ- ent decision contexts and objectives. When we regard an ecosystem’s capacity to reduce leaching of pollutants as an input for the production of water quality its value can be calcu- lated as associated impacts on net welfare by means of the production function approach Ma¨ler, 1991a; Barbier, 1994, 1997; Gren, 1995; Bystro¨m, 1999. The value of the pollutant sink functioning is then determined by the valuation of water quality, the effectiveness in producing water quality, and the cost as compared to other pollu- tant reduction measures. The optimal choices of inputs and water quality are, in turn, determined by type of decision framework. In this paper, two classes of decision contexts and objectives are identified for the management of international waters. The alternative decision contexts are coor- dinated and uncoordinated choices of water qual- ity improvement options, and the objectives to be achieved are formulated either as maximization of net benefits or as minimization of costs for achiev- ing a certain water quality target. As demonstrated in Barbier 1997 and Free- man 1991, the design of property rights for a common property resource and associated deci- sion context affects the value of an ecosystem as an input into the production of a common prop- erty resource. The difference with this paper as compared to the approach of Barbier and Free- man is the large-scale international aspect. There is a relatively large literature on net benefits from emission reductions under different international cooperative frameworks Barett, 1990; Kaitala et al., 1991; Ma¨ler, 1991b; Hoel, 1992. There are also numerous studies on the valuation of ecosys- tem life support values, especially wetland valua- tion see Gren and So¨derqvist, 1994, for a survey. However, the combination of ecosystem valuation and transboundary environmental impacts, which is the approach applied in this study, is rare. The paper is organized as follows. The first two sections contain an analytical decomposition of factors affecting the value of land as a pollution abatement option. Next, the approach is applied to the valuation of Baltic Sea coastal wetlands as nitrogen sinks. The paper ends with a brief sum- mary and some concluding comments.

2. Basic model and decision framework

This paper contains two basic components for the analysis and calculation of the value of land as a pollutant sink. One is a description of pollu- tant transports among the countries sharing the common water body. The other is modelling of alternative decision contexts and objectives. In the following, the construction of simple models of pollutant transports and decision frameworks are presented. By means of these models, the value of land as a pollutant sink in a country is calculated as the impact on net benefits or abatement costs from a marginal increase in the current area of pollutant sink. Land as a pollutant sink is here interpreted as the area of land with relatively low pollutant leaching. A switch in the area of land from high to low leaching then implies a net decrease in pollutant leaching, the effectiveness of which, as measured in tons of pollutant reduc- tions to the water body, depends on the difference in leaching between the high and low leaching land covers. 2 . 1 . Pollutant transport modelling If there were no pollutant transports between countries, there would be no difference in out- comes between coordinated and uncoordinated pollution abatement policies. However, in the case of international waters we have to deal with two types of transboundary pollutants: air and water streams. Simplified models for these transports are presented in this section. For each country i, where i = 1,…,N different countries, there are two types of pollutant path- ways to the water body under study: direct, E i , and indirect deposition, P i . Direct deposition is defined as the pollutant emissions in region, E i , which are transported directly into the water body. It is assumed that this direct deposition can be calculated as a share of total emissions from the region, a i E i . Total pollutant load from a country i to the common water body, L i , is then written as L i = P i + a i E i 1 Indirect deposition, P i , refers to the pollutants deposited on land and further transported by water streams to the international water body. The total deposition on land within a country is determined by the emissions from all countries, which are deposited on land within the country. It is assumed that these transboundary air pollutants can be described by a matrix where each element a ji measures that share of country j’s emissions that is transported to country i. When a ii = 1 − a i there are no transboundary pollutant transports. Total pollutant deposited on land within the territory of each country, S j a ji E j , is subjected to transformation during the transport from the de- position localization to the water body under study. The level of P i is then dependent, not only on the pollutant deposition within the regions, but on other factors, such as the composition of land, climate, geology and hydrology. For example, there is a great difference in nutrient leaching between forest areas and bare arable land. An- other simplification of the model is the discrimi- nation between only two types of land, relatively high leaching land, A Hi , and low leaching land, A Li , or land covered by pollutant sink. The indi- rect deposition of pollutants from country i to the water body, P i , is then written as P i = P i A Li , A Hi , S j e ji E j 2 where A Li + A Hi = A Ti and A Ti is the total area of land in region i. In principle we expect P i to be increasing in E j and A Hi and decreasing in A Li . The simplification of pollutant transports made in Eq. 2 occurs for at least two reasons. One is that the spatial distribution of different land cover types within a drainage basin affects the pollutant load to the water body. For example, high leach- ing land located close to the water body implies larger P i than if the same land is located upstream in the drainage basin. The reason is the transfor- mation of pollutants during the water and soil transports from the pollutant source to the water body. The second reason is the complex dynamic relation between surface and subsurface transport of pollutants. However, the consideration of these factors would not alter the principal analytical results in this section, although they will probably have a strong empirical importance. Therefore, in order to focus on the role of institutional and informational settings, these dynamic and spatial factors are excluded from the analysis. The transboundary dispersion of water quality impacts is determined by the water streams. It is assumed that these transports between surround- ing regions can be described by a matrix where each element, e ji , denotes the fraction of pollutant load from region j, L j , which affects region i. The water quality for a region, W i , can then be writ- ten as W i = W i S j e ji L j 3 Water quality is assumed to be measured so that a higher W i implies improved water quality. It is then expected that W i is decreasing in L j . 2 . 2 . Decision contexts and objecti6es Based on the above description of pollutant transports, we can identify two types of options for improving the water quality: emission-oriented abatement measures, R i , and land use-oriented options increasing the area of low leaching land, A Li , or pollutant sinks. Pollutant emission from a country i is then initial emission, E io , which could be measured at a certain base year, minus R i , or E i = E io − R i . Common to all decision contexts and objectives is the choice of these two pollutant load reduction measures. Another common fea- ture for all types of decisions is that the value of land as a pollutant sink is calculated as a mar- ginal increase in the current area of pollutant sink in each country i, A Li . In an international context there are no super national authorities who are able to enforce con- tracts on cooperation between regions. Countries or regions will then cooperate only if they make gains as compared to a situation where they act on their own. It is therefore of interest to calculate and compare the outcomes when countries coor- dinate their policies with the outcomes from single country decisions. Two types of international in- stitutional frameworks are therefore analysed. One is where all regions coordinate their choices of R i and A Li for obtaining a common objective. The other is the uncoordinated case where each country makes its own choice taking other coun- tries’ decisions as given. Ideally, when sufficient information is available, we would solve for the efficient choices of R i and A Li by maximizing net benefits under the two institutional settings. However, estimating changes in the supply of public goods in monetary terms is far from a trivial matter. In the case of water quality improvements this implies the trans- lation of water quality changes, such as pollutant concentration ratios, into welfare terms. For ex- ample, changes in pollutant loads affect reproduc- tion of commercial fish and bathing water quality. We thus have to deal with multi-attribute valua- tion, which is a relatively recent research area e.g. Dale et al., 1996. It is therefore likely that benefit estimates of water quality impacts are not avail- able. Further, we might not even obtain informa- tion on water quality impacts from pollutant transports in biological terms. The reason is the lack of data on marine pollutant transports for large international water bodies Gren et al., 1997. Therefore, two types of decision objectives are identified depending on the availability of marine pollutant transports and benefits esti- mates. In the case of information availability, net benefits are maximized. When sufficient informa- tion does not exist, the cost effectiveness decision rule is applied. The decision is then formulated as achieving a certain reduction in the pollutant load to the water body at minimum cost. We thus have four different combinations of institutional and informational settings: coordi- nated and uncoordinated choices of R i and A Li where either net benefits are maximised or costs are minimized for a certain target in the load of pollutants to the water body. Under all four situations it is assumed that there exists cost functions for each type of measure, C iR and C iA , which are increasing and convex in R i and A Li respectively. When maximizing net benefits, valu- ation functions are assumed to exist for each country, V i W i which are increasing and concave in W i . The four different decision models and the associated first-order conditions with respect to the optimal choice of A Li are written as presented in the following. Coordinated maximization of total net benefits IB , implies that total net benefits for all coun- tries are maximized, which gives Max S i [V i W i − C iR R i − C iA A Li ] R i , A Li , s.t. 1 − 3 A Li 5 A Li 4 The associated first-order conditions for an opti- mum read S j [V W j j W L j j e ij P R i a i + S j V W j W L j j L P j e ji P R j a ij ] = C R i i 5 S j V W j W L j j e ij P A Li i − C A Li i = a iIB 6 where subindexes denote partial derivatives, j = i = 1,…,N different countries, and a iIB is the La- grangian multiplier of the constraints on the area of pollutant sinks, which is positive when the constraint is binding. This multiplier is interpreted as the value of a marginal increase in A i , which constitutes our measurement of the pollutant sink value of land in country i. From Eq. 6 we can see that its magnitude is determined by the differ- ence in marginal benefits minus marginal costs. When A Li does not bind at the actual area of pollutant sinks, there is no marginal pollutant sink value. The first-order condition Eq. 5 also reveals two types of international spillover impacts from a marginal change in pollutant emissions in coun- try i. The first term within brackets in Eq. 5 disregards the transboundary air transports but includes the dispersion of water quality impacts to other countries by the marine transport coeffi- cients e ij . The second term shows somewhat more complicated spillover effects by considering trans- boundary air and water pollution. First, the emis- sion reduction in country i gives rise to a deposition and leaching reduction in other coun- tries through P j R j a ij . Then, the pollutant load reduction in each country j generates disper- sion of water quality impacts to all other coun- tries through the marine transport coefficients e ji . In Gren 1997 it is shown that the consideration of these two spillover effects, instead of only one as in most papers on transboundary pollutants, is likely to reduce the difference between outcomes from coordinated and uncoordinated policies. However, in this paper we are mainly concerned with the comparison of the value of marginal changes in the area of pollutant sinks. In subse- quent analysis we will therefore abolish the first- order conditions for optimal choices of emission reduction measures. Coordinated minimization of total costs IC for achieving a certain maximum pollutant load target, L, is written as Min S i N [C iR R i + C iA A Li ] R i , A Li s.t. 1 − 2 S i N L i 5 L A Li 5 A Li 7 and the first-order conditions with respect to the optimal choice of A Li is l P A Li i − C A Li i = a iIC 8 where l ] 0 is the Lagrange multiplier on the pollutant load restriction, which measures the change in total costs from a marginal change in the pollutant load restriction. Whether or not a iIC is positive depends on the cost and effectiveness of land as a pollutant sink as compared to abate- ment options in all countries. The corresponding decision problems under na- tional policies is written in the same way as Eqs. 6 and 7, except for the absence of summation over all countries in the objective function. Under national minimization of costs, a restriction is imposed only on the country’s pollutant load to the water body. The associated first-order condi- tions under National maximization of net benefits NB , is then written as V W i i W L i i e ii P A Li i − C A Li i = a iNB 9 The corresponding condition under National min- imization of costs NC is l i P A Li i − C A Li i = a iNC 10 where the Lagrange multiplier, l i , measures the change in costs from a marginal change in the pollution requirement L i which considers only the reduction options in the country. The multi- plier on the overall reduction target, l, measures changes in total costs from a marginal change in L where reduction options in all countries are taken into account.

3. Comparison of pollutant sink values

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