Analisis Kemampuan Cadangan Umum Aset Produktif Dalam Memprediksi Bank Failure Di Indonesia (Studi Empiris Perbankan Periode 2004-2011)
Kriteria Pengambilan Sampel
Lampiran 1/9
Kriteria
No
Nama Bank
A.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
B.
BANK PERSERO
PT. Bank Mandiri
PT. Bank Negara Indonesia
PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia
PT. Bank Tabungan Negara
PT. Bank Ekspor Indonesia
BUSN DEVISA
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
PT. Bank Antar Daerah
PT. Bank Arta Graha
PT. Bank Arta Graha Internasional
PT. Bank Arta Niaga
PT. Bank Buana
PT. Bank Internasional Indonesia
PT. Bank of India
PT. Bank Central Asia
PT. Bank CIC Internasional
PT. Bank BRI Agroniaga
PT. Bank Bukopin
PT. Bank Bumi Artha
PT. Bank Bumi Putera Indonesia
PT. Bank Capital Indonesia
PT. Bank Century
PT. Bank Dagang Bali
PT. Bank CIMB Niaga
PT. Bank Danamon
Memenuhi Kondisi
1
2
F
NF
Tidak
F/NF
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
-
√
-
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
Penjelasan
Tidak mengalami kerugian.
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian
Tidak mengalami kerugian
Tidak mengalami kerugian
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian
72
Universitas Sumatera Utara
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
PT. Bank Ekonomi Rahardja
PT. Bank Ganesha
PT. Bank Hagakita
PT. Bank HAGA
PT. Bank Hana
PT. Bank Halim Indonesia
PT. Bank Himpunan Saudara
PT. Bank ICB Bumiputera
PT. Bank Index Selindo
PT. Lippo Bank
PT. Bank Mayapada
PT. Bank Mega
PT. Bank Mestika Dharma
PT. Bank Metro Ekspress
PT. Bank Mutiara
PT. Bank Muamalat Indonesia
PT. Bank Niaga
PT. Bank Nusantara Parahyangan
PT. Bank OCBC NISP
PT. Bank PAN Indonesia
PT. Bank Permata
PT. Bank Pikko
PT. Bank QNB Kesawan
PT. Bank SBI Indonesia
PT. Bank Sinar Mas
PT. Bank Swadesi
PT. Bank Syariah Mega
PT. Bank Syariah Mandiri
PT. Bank UOB
PT. Bank Windu Kentjana
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
-
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Laporan keuangan tidak tersedia
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
73
Universitas Sumatera Utara
C.
BUSN NON DEVISA
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
PT. Bank Andara
PT. Bank Anglomas
PT. Bank Artos
PT. Bank Asiatic
PT. Bank Barclays
√
-
√
-
√
√
√
-
-
59.
PT. Bank Bintang Manunggal
-
-
-
-
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
PT. Bank Bisnis Indonesia
PT. BNP Paribas
PT. BTPN
PT. Bank Capital Indonesia
PT. Bank Centratama Nasional
PT. Bank DANPAC
PT. Bank DBS
PT. Bank Dinar
PT. Bank Dippo International
PT. Bank Eksekutif International
PT. FAMA International Bank
PT. Bank Global International
PT. Bank Harda International
PT. Bank Harmoni International
PT. Bank INA Perdana
PT. Bank Index Selindo
PT. Bank Indomonex
PT. Bank Jasa Arta
PT. Bank Jasa Jakarta
PT. Bank Kesejahteraan Ekonomi
PT. Bank Liman Internasional
-
√
√
-
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak tersedia laporan keuangan setahun
sebelumnya
Tidak tersedia laporan keuangan setahun
sebelumnya
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
74
Universitas Sumatera Utara
81.
82.
PT. Bank Maspion
PT. Bank Mayora
-
-
-
√
-
83.
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
94.
95.
96.
97.
98.
D.
PT. Bank Mitraniaga
PT. Bank Multiarta
PT. Bank Nobu
PT. Bank Panin Syariah
PT. Bank Persyarikatan Indonesia
PT. Bank Prima Master
PT. Bank Pundi
PT. Bank Purba Danarta
PT.Bank Royal Indonesia
PT.Bank Sahabat Sampoerna
PT. Bank Sinar Harapan Bali
PT. Bank Syariah BRI
PT. Bank Syariah Bukopin
PT. Bank Victoria
PT. Bank Yudha Bakti
PT. Bank Tugu
Bank Campuran
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
-
99.
100.
101.
102.
103.
104.
105.
106.
107.
PT. Bank Agris
PT. Bank ANZ
PT. Bank BNP Paribas
PT. Bank Capital Indonesia
PT. Bank China Trust
PT. Bank Commonwealth
PT. Bank DBS Indonesia
PT. Bank Finconesia
PT. Korean Exchange Bank
-
√
-
√
-
√
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
Tidak tersedia laporan keuangan setahun
sebelumnya
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak tersedia data setahun sebelumnya
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
75
Universitas Sumatera Utara
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.
116.
117.
118.
119.
E.
PT. Maybank
PT. Mizuho Bank
PT. Bank Multicor
PT. Bank OCBC
PT. Bank Pacific
PT. Rabobank Duta
PT. Rabobank International
PT. Bank Resona Perdania
PT. Bank SUMITOMO
PT. Bank UFJ
PT. Bank UOB
PT. Woori Bank
Bank Asing
√
-
√
√
-
√
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
-
120.
American Ekspress Bank
-
-
Bank Bangkok
-
√
-
121.
√
√
-
Keterangan :
-
-
Tidak tersedia data setahun sebelumnya
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak tersedianya laporan keuangan yang
dibutuhkan
*Kriteria 1 = Ditutup secara legal oleh pihak yang berwenang
Kriteria 2 = Mengalami kerugian secara berturut turut selama 3 tahun
76
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Daftar Sampel yang Menjadi Objek Penelitian
Lampiran 2/9
Kondisi Bank
Failure (F)
No
Nama Bank
A.
Bank Persero
1.
Non Failure (NF)
Total Aset
No
Nama Bank
Total Aset
PT. Bank Tabungan Negara
26.805.829
1.
PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia
94.709.726
2.
PT. Bank Ekspor Indonesia
11.191.257
2.
PT. Bank Negara Indonesia
200.390.507
B.
BUSN DEVISA
3.
PT. Bank Antar Daerah
632.935
3.
PT. Bank BTPN
4.483.323
4.
PT. Bank Arta Graha Internasional
454.559
5.
PT. Bank Ekonomi Rahardja
8.246.634
5.
PT. BRI Agroniaga
2.551.446
6.
PT. Bank HAGA
2.948.485
6.
PT. Bank Century
13.796.376
7.
PT. Bank OCBC
28.969.069
7.
PT. Bank Dagang Bali
2.085.000
8.
PT. Bank Mestika Dharma
2.373.156
8.
PT. Bank Ganesha
802.112
9.
PT. Bank Woori
1.773.316
9.
PT. Bank Himpunan Saudara
413.476
10.
PT. Bank Resona Perdania
3.319.911
10.
PT. Bank Lippo
26.466.353
11..
PT. Bank Bukopin
17.557.864
11.
PT. Bank Mutiara
9.122.740
12.
PT. Bank Mega
13.859.900
12.
PT. Bank Permata
28.868.580
13.
PT. PAN Indonesia
18.873.993
13.
PT. QNB Kesawan
1.247.916
14.
PT. Bank Bumi Artha
1.325.314
14.
PT. Bank Windu Kentjana
251.925
15.
PT. Bank SBI Indonesia
308.257
C.
BUSN NON DEVISA
15.
PT. Bank Andara
346.236
16.
PT. Bank Multiarta
332.917
77
Universitas Sumatera Utara
16.
PT. BNP Paribas
593.165
17.
PT. Bank Kesejahteraan Ekonomi
379.641
17.
PT. Bank INA Perdana
139.827
18.
PT. Bank ARTOS
166.774
18.
PT. Bank Mitra Niaga
215.766
19.
PT. Bank FAMA International
216.063
19.
PT. NOBU
30.038
20.
PT. Royal Bank
64.102
20.
PT. Bank Pundi
1.493.537
21.
PT. Bank Yudha Bakti
1.325.303
21.
PT. Bank Asiatic
1.853.257
22.
PT. Bank Maspion
1.731.799
D.
Bank Campuran
22.
PT. Bank Agris
1.058.573
23.
China Trust
2.463.629
23.
PT. Bank UFJ
2.687.909
24.
PT. Woori Bank
2.553.507
24.
PT. Rabobank Duta
2.948.485
25.
PT. Resona Perdania
3.319.911
25.
PT. Maybank Indocorp
342.112
26.
PT. Multicor
665.401
78
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Nilai Variabel Bebas dan Variabel Indikator yang Digunakan pada Penelitian
Bank dengan Kondisi Failure
NO
NAMA BANK
STATUS
CUAP
TOTAL MODAL
MODAL INTI
Lampiran 3/9
PPAP
TOTAL ASET
TOTAL
KREDIT
CADANGAN
LAINNYA
ROA
1
BBA
1
1
0,032890
0,016445
0,016453
0,346236
0,235799
0,021261
0,008000
2
BBAD
1
1
0,067044
0,042546
0,007329
0,632935
0,350196
0,021273
0,040200
3
BBAGI
1
0
0,075330
0,074739
0,119009
0,454559
0,848273
0,000000
0,008500
4
BBAGR
1
0
0,210699
0,202754
0,094482
1,091768
0,809214
0,000000
-0,010000
5
BBAST
1
1
0,175744
0,159169
0,016585
1,722529
0,966766
0,000000
0,018000
6
BBC
1
1
1,998286
1,762888
0,060618
34,454813
18,680346
0,047200
0,006100
7
BBDB
1
0
0,121466
0,084620
0,017493
1,853257
0,348552
0,000000
0,020100
8
BBEI
1
0
4,111004
0,402564
0,165836
10,292037
6,387901
0,000000
0,016200
9
BBG
1
0
0,080653
0,070065
0,008028
0,802112
0,471024
0,004196
0,064500
10
BBHS
1
1
0,030508
0,026907
0,005795
0,410701
0,324675
0,000000
0,016200
11
BBIP
1
0
0,021246
0,019668
0,000942
0,139827
0,049609
0,000000
0,032400
12
BBLl
1
0
1,406220
0,703110
0,831338
26,466353
4,746032
0,597952
0,029200
13
BBMI
1
0
0,160823
0,159088
0,007816
0,342112
0,097930
0,000000
0,073800
14
BBMN
1
1
0,017945
0,016353
0,001867
0,215766
0,125261
0,000000
0,054700
15
BBMTR
1
0
0,487932
0,321933
9,122740
2,281876
0,079241
0,030000
16
BBNN
1
0
0,613558
0,011912
0,011773
0,000072
0,030038
0,005655
0,000000
0,013500
17
BBNPP
1
0
0,209608
0,145123
0,216535
0,593165
0,622321
0,058975
0,010600
18
BBP
1
0
1,338120
0,998683
0,741127
28,868580
9,607309
0,193918
0,010000
19
BBPUNDI
1
1
0,149724
0,149582
0,034341
1,493537
1,139628
0,002780
0,010000
20
BBQNB
1
1
0,094290
0,074387
0,012503
1,247916
0,502142
0,015477
0,030000
21
BBRIA
1
1
0,215522
0,156039
0,189243
1,337961
1,036715
0,049708
-0,010000
22
BBTN
1
0
0,799368
0,673337
0,559117
26,805829
11,160966
0,044029
0,073800
23
BBWK
1
0
0,015809
0,050000
0,001856
0,251925
0,079158
0,000000
0,020500
79
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Bank dengan Kondisi Non Failure
NO
NAMA BANK
STATUS
Lampiran 4/9
CUAP
TOTAL MODAL
MODAL INTI
PPAP
TOTAL ASET
TOTAL KREDIT
CADANGAN
LAIN
ROA
1
BBARTOS
0
1
0,025622
0,024469
0,001118
0,166774
0,107964
0,000000
0,027800
2
BBB
0
1
1,132358
0,801113
0,113298
17,557864
12,452611
0,000236
0,026000
3
BBBA
0
1
0,166863
0,163551
0,006315
1,325314
0,315402
0,000003
0,683900
4
BBICB
0
1
0,262992
0,236589
0,023592
3,254898
2,528880
0,000000
0,010000
5
BBD
0
0
13,857403
9,769437
1,404586
86,617017
43,852551
3,340714
0,013100
6
BBER
0
1
0,377697
0,339115
0,054835
8,246634
2,956011
0,000000
0,029900
7
BBFI
0
0
0,030081
0,027669
0,004402
0,216063
0,166561
0,000000
-0,014800
8
BBKE
0
1
0,081253
0,078761
0,009840
0,379641
0,311323
0,000000
0,019000
9
BBTPN
0
1
0,721577
0,690631
0,079444
4,483323
3,232817
0,000000
0,040000
10
BBMD
0
0
0,466528
0,441278
0,036875
2,373156
1,722384
0,000000
0,025200
11
BBMG
0
1
1,053807
0,869247
0,076810
13,859900
6,375241
0,000115
-0,078500
12
BBMLTCR
0
0
0,146210
0,288592
0,013135
0,665401
0,322410
0,000000
0,021000
13
BBMMLTI
0
1
0,023856
0,022066
0,002955
0,332917
0,332917
0,000000
0,015000
14
BBMSP
0
1
0,125762
0,116984
0,011346
1,731799
0,796840
0,000000
0,051800
15
BBNI
0
0
17,768619
12,788511
3,383830
182,007749
63,439833
3,762160
0,017900
16
BBPI
0
1
4,884825
2,758982
0,956452
18,873999
8,534010
2,019771
0,027500
17
BBR
0
0
0,018834
0,018693
0,000406
0,064102
0,002427
0,000000
0,023800
18
BBRI
0
1
9,645651
7,531596
2,130519
94,709726
47,523002
2,172821
0,009800
19
BBRP
0
1
0,690061
0,661795
0,225111
3,319911
2,475434
0,000000
0,075000
20
BBSUMI
0
1
1,567207
1,116299
0,534501
5,526064
3,077634
0,421250
0,020000
21
BBW
0
1
0,804177
0,531527
0,056311
1,773316
0,771216
0,261175
0,014000
22
BBYB
0
0
0,130491
0,096565
0,016679
1,325303
0,707963
0,024786
0,030000
23
NBBCT
0
1
0,833123
0,801802
0,101068
3,998451
3,022975
0,000000
0,070000
80
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 5/9
ANALISIS DESKRIPTIF
Bank yang Mengalami Kondisi Failure dan Non Failure
Statistics
Cadangan Umum Aset
Total Modal
Modal Inti
PPA Wajib
Total Aset
Total kredit
Cadangan
Produktif
Valid
Return on Asset
lainnya
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
,39
,51075133
,27327047
,12885109
6,47724765
2,61169318
,04939174
,024622
,104
,198263575
,087602817
,050689745
2,300992678
,976812687
,026547191
,0048620
,00
,12146600
,08462000
,00802800
1,09176800
,50214200
,00278000
,018000
Std. Deviation
,499
,950838703
,420128351
,243099475
11,035173222
4,684629076
,127315853
,0233176
Skewness
,477
2,888
2,468
2,176
1,716
2,415
4,017
,876
Std. Error of Skewness
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
-1,951
9,308
6,710
3,761
1,433
5,856
17,249
,262
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
N
Missing
Mean
Std. Error of Mean
Median
Kurtosis
Std. Error of Kurtosis
Statistics
Cadangan Umum Aset
Total Modal
Modal Inti
PPA Wajib
Total Aset
Total kredit
Produktif
Valid
Cadangan
Return on
lainnya
Asset
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
,70
2,32023266
1,68731054
,39668839
19,68736183
8,91427852
,52187091
,050322
Std. Error of Mean
,098
1,001709187
,719720478
,175759687
9,079529597
3,639491626
,235643470
,0294273
Median
1,00
,16686300
,28859200
,03687500
3,25489800
2,47543400
,00000000
,023800
,470
4,804028495
3,451658157
,842913848
43,543894260
17,45438867
1,130106381
,1411282
N
Missing
Mean
Std. Deviation
Skewness
Std. Error of Skewness
Kurtosis
Std. Error of Kurtosis
1
-,911
2,457
2,468
2,676
2,958
2,382
2,134
4,454
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
-1,291
5,285
5,261
7,207
8,967
4,663
3,395
20,856
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
81
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6/9
UJI NORMALITAS DATA
One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
Unstandardized Residual
N
Normal Parametersa,b
Most Extreme Differences
46
Mean
Std. Deviation
,0000000
,42635190
Absolute
,171
Positive
,113
Negative
-,171
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
1,161
,135
a. Test distribution is Normal.
b. Calculated from data.
82
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Uji Beda Rata Rata Variabel yang Digunakan
Lampiran 7/9
Independent Samples Test
Levene's Test for
t-test for Equality of Means
Equality of
Variances
F
Sig.
T
df
Sig. (2-
Mean
Std. Error
95% Confidence Interval of the
tailed)
Difference
Difference
Difference
Lower
Cadangan Umum Aset Equal variances assumed
Produktif
Total Modal
Modal Inti
PPA Wajib
Total Aset
Total kredit
Cadangan lainnya
1,411
,241
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
11,903
,001
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
13,510
,001
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
8,284
,006
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
6,159
,017
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
8,658
,005
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
20,186
,000
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
2,356
,132
Upper
2,128
44
,039
,304
,143
,016
,593
2,128
43,848
,039
,304
,143
,016
,593
1,836
44
,073
1,863357739
1,015140119
-,182522741
3,909238219
1,836
23,727
,079
1,863357739
1,015140119
-,233067161
3,959782639
2,036
44
,048
1,464673913
,719507171
,014602491
2,914745335
2,036
22,650
,054
1,464673913
,719507171
-,025015322
2,954363149
1,386
44
,173
,252743913
,182360077
-,114778672
,620266499
1,386
25,611
,178
,252743913
,182360077
-,122379617
,627867443
1,410
44
,165
13,210114174
9,366558867
-5,666944852
32,087173199
1,410
24,814
,171
13,210114174
9,366558867
-6,087998072
32,508226420
1,664
44
,103
6,267437304
3,767353874
-1,325165535
13,860040144
1,664
25,130
,109
6,267437304
3,767353874
-1,489539857
14,024414466
1,992
44
,053
,472479174
,237134135
-,005433273
,950391621
1,992
22,558
,059
,472479174
,237134135
-,018602130
,963560478
,862
44
,394
,0257000
,0298262
-,0344108
,0858108
,862
23,200
,398
,0257000
,0298262
-,0359708
,0873708
Return on Asset
Equal variances not assumed
83
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Logistic Regression
Lampiran 8/9
Iteration Historya,b,c
Case Processing Summary
Unweighted Casesa
N
Included in Analysis
Selected Cases
46
100,0
0
,0
46
100,0
0
,0
46
100,0
Missing Cases
Total
Unselected Cases
Total
Iteration
Percent
Step 0
-2
1
likelihood
Constant
63,770
,000
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. Initial -2 Log Likelihood: 63,770
c. Estimation terminated at iteration number 1
because parameter estimates changed by less than
a. If weight is in effect, see classification table for the total number
,001.
of cases.
Iteration Historya,b,c,d
Iteration
Step 1
Log Coefficients
-2
Model Summary
Log Coefficients
Step
-2 Log
Cox & Snell R
Nagelkerke R
likelihood
Square
Square
53,941a
,192
,256
likelihood
Constant
X1
X2
1
54,411
1,024
-1,402
-,180
1
2
53,990
1,157
-1,521
-,253
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because
3
53,943
1,176
-1,523
-,287
parameter estimates changed by less than ,001.
4
53,941
1,180
-1,523
-,294
5
53,941
1,180
-1,523
-,294
a. Method: Enter
b. Constant is included in the model.
c. Initial -2 Log Likelihood: 63,770
d. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter
estimates changed by less than ,001.
84
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 9/9
Step 1
Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test
Status Kegagalan
Status Kegagalan Bank
Bank = Tidak Gagal
= Gagal
Observed Expected Observed
Expected
1
4
4,708
1
,292
2
5
3,466
0
1,534
3
5
3,081
0
1,919
4
2
2,861
3
2,139
5
2
2,777
3
2,223
6
0
2,132
5
2,868
7
2
1,383
3
3,617
8
1
1,206
4
3,794
9
2
1,385
4
4,615
Variables in the Equation
Total
B
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
S.E.
Wald
df
Sig.
Exp
95% C.I.for
(B)
EXP(B)
Lower
X1
-1,423
,679
4,386
1
,036
,241
,064
,913
Step 1a X3
-,727
,681
1,141
1
,285
,483
,127
1,835
1,228
,560
4,808
1
,028
3,413
Constant
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: X1, X3.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
Status Kegagalan Bank
Tidak
Variables not in the Equation
Percentage
Score
Correct
Gagal
Gagal
Tidak
Step Status Kegagalan Bank
Gagal
1
Gagal
Overall Percentage
df
Sig.
X1
4,293
1
,038
X3
3,959
1
,047
9,257
2
,010
Variables
18
5
78,3
Step 0
Overall Statistics
9
14
Upper
60,9
69,6
a. The cut value is ,500
85
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1/9
Kriteria
No
Nama Bank
A.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
B.
BANK PERSERO
PT. Bank Mandiri
PT. Bank Negara Indonesia
PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia
PT. Bank Tabungan Negara
PT. Bank Ekspor Indonesia
BUSN DEVISA
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
PT. Bank Antar Daerah
PT. Bank Arta Graha
PT. Bank Arta Graha Internasional
PT. Bank Arta Niaga
PT. Bank Buana
PT. Bank Internasional Indonesia
PT. Bank of India
PT. Bank Central Asia
PT. Bank CIC Internasional
PT. Bank BRI Agroniaga
PT. Bank Bukopin
PT. Bank Bumi Artha
PT. Bank Bumi Putera Indonesia
PT. Bank Capital Indonesia
PT. Bank Century
PT. Bank Dagang Bali
PT. Bank CIMB Niaga
PT. Bank Danamon
Memenuhi Kondisi
1
2
F
NF
Tidak
F/NF
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
-
√
-
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
Penjelasan
Tidak mengalami kerugian.
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian
Tidak mengalami kerugian
Tidak mengalami kerugian
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian
72
Universitas Sumatera Utara
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
PT. Bank Ekonomi Rahardja
PT. Bank Ganesha
PT. Bank Hagakita
PT. Bank HAGA
PT. Bank Hana
PT. Bank Halim Indonesia
PT. Bank Himpunan Saudara
PT. Bank ICB Bumiputera
PT. Bank Index Selindo
PT. Lippo Bank
PT. Bank Mayapada
PT. Bank Mega
PT. Bank Mestika Dharma
PT. Bank Metro Ekspress
PT. Bank Mutiara
PT. Bank Muamalat Indonesia
PT. Bank Niaga
PT. Bank Nusantara Parahyangan
PT. Bank OCBC NISP
PT. Bank PAN Indonesia
PT. Bank Permata
PT. Bank Pikko
PT. Bank QNB Kesawan
PT. Bank SBI Indonesia
PT. Bank Sinar Mas
PT. Bank Swadesi
PT. Bank Syariah Mega
PT. Bank Syariah Mandiri
PT. Bank UOB
PT. Bank Windu Kentjana
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
-
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Laporan keuangan tidak tersedia
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
73
Universitas Sumatera Utara
C.
BUSN NON DEVISA
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
PT. Bank Andara
PT. Bank Anglomas
PT. Bank Artos
PT. Bank Asiatic
PT. Bank Barclays
√
-
√
-
√
√
√
-
-
59.
PT. Bank Bintang Manunggal
-
-
-
-
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
PT. Bank Bisnis Indonesia
PT. BNP Paribas
PT. BTPN
PT. Bank Capital Indonesia
PT. Bank Centratama Nasional
PT. Bank DANPAC
PT. Bank DBS
PT. Bank Dinar
PT. Bank Dippo International
PT. Bank Eksekutif International
PT. FAMA International Bank
PT. Bank Global International
PT. Bank Harda International
PT. Bank Harmoni International
PT. Bank INA Perdana
PT. Bank Index Selindo
PT. Bank Indomonex
PT. Bank Jasa Arta
PT. Bank Jasa Jakarta
PT. Bank Kesejahteraan Ekonomi
PT. Bank Liman Internasional
-
√
√
-
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak tersedia laporan keuangan setahun
sebelumnya
Tidak tersedia laporan keuangan setahun
sebelumnya
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
74
Universitas Sumatera Utara
81.
82.
PT. Bank Maspion
PT. Bank Mayora
-
-
-
√
-
83.
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
94.
95.
96.
97.
98.
D.
PT. Bank Mitraniaga
PT. Bank Multiarta
PT. Bank Nobu
PT. Bank Panin Syariah
PT. Bank Persyarikatan Indonesia
PT. Bank Prima Master
PT. Bank Pundi
PT. Bank Purba Danarta
PT.Bank Royal Indonesia
PT.Bank Sahabat Sampoerna
PT. Bank Sinar Harapan Bali
PT. Bank Syariah BRI
PT. Bank Syariah Bukopin
PT. Bank Victoria
PT. Bank Yudha Bakti
PT. Bank Tugu
Bank Campuran
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
-
99.
100.
101.
102.
103.
104.
105.
106.
107.
PT. Bank Agris
PT. Bank ANZ
PT. Bank BNP Paribas
PT. Bank Capital Indonesia
PT. Bank China Trust
PT. Bank Commonwealth
PT. Bank DBS Indonesia
PT. Bank Finconesia
PT. Korean Exchange Bank
-
√
-
√
-
√
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
Tidak tersedia laporan keuangan setahun
sebelumnya
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak tersedia data setahun sebelumnya
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
75
Universitas Sumatera Utara
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.
116.
117.
118.
119.
E.
PT. Maybank
PT. Mizuho Bank
PT. Bank Multicor
PT. Bank OCBC
PT. Bank Pacific
PT. Rabobank Duta
PT. Rabobank International
PT. Bank Resona Perdania
PT. Bank SUMITOMO
PT. Bank UFJ
PT. Bank UOB
PT. Woori Bank
Bank Asing
√
-
√
√
-
√
√
√
-
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
-
120.
American Ekspress Bank
-
-
Bank Bangkok
-
√
-
121.
√
√
-
Keterangan :
-
-
Tidak tersedia data setahun sebelumnya
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak mengalami kerugian berturut turut
Tidak tersedianya laporan keuangan yang
dibutuhkan
*Kriteria 1 = Ditutup secara legal oleh pihak yang berwenang
Kriteria 2 = Mengalami kerugian secara berturut turut selama 3 tahun
76
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Daftar Sampel yang Menjadi Objek Penelitian
Lampiran 2/9
Kondisi Bank
Failure (F)
No
Nama Bank
A.
Bank Persero
1.
Non Failure (NF)
Total Aset
No
Nama Bank
Total Aset
PT. Bank Tabungan Negara
26.805.829
1.
PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia
94.709.726
2.
PT. Bank Ekspor Indonesia
11.191.257
2.
PT. Bank Negara Indonesia
200.390.507
B.
BUSN DEVISA
3.
PT. Bank Antar Daerah
632.935
3.
PT. Bank BTPN
4.483.323
4.
PT. Bank Arta Graha Internasional
454.559
5.
PT. Bank Ekonomi Rahardja
8.246.634
5.
PT. BRI Agroniaga
2.551.446
6.
PT. Bank HAGA
2.948.485
6.
PT. Bank Century
13.796.376
7.
PT. Bank OCBC
28.969.069
7.
PT. Bank Dagang Bali
2.085.000
8.
PT. Bank Mestika Dharma
2.373.156
8.
PT. Bank Ganesha
802.112
9.
PT. Bank Woori
1.773.316
9.
PT. Bank Himpunan Saudara
413.476
10.
PT. Bank Resona Perdania
3.319.911
10.
PT. Bank Lippo
26.466.353
11..
PT. Bank Bukopin
17.557.864
11.
PT. Bank Mutiara
9.122.740
12.
PT. Bank Mega
13.859.900
12.
PT. Bank Permata
28.868.580
13.
PT. PAN Indonesia
18.873.993
13.
PT. QNB Kesawan
1.247.916
14.
PT. Bank Bumi Artha
1.325.314
14.
PT. Bank Windu Kentjana
251.925
15.
PT. Bank SBI Indonesia
308.257
C.
BUSN NON DEVISA
15.
PT. Bank Andara
346.236
16.
PT. Bank Multiarta
332.917
77
Universitas Sumatera Utara
16.
PT. BNP Paribas
593.165
17.
PT. Bank Kesejahteraan Ekonomi
379.641
17.
PT. Bank INA Perdana
139.827
18.
PT. Bank ARTOS
166.774
18.
PT. Bank Mitra Niaga
215.766
19.
PT. Bank FAMA International
216.063
19.
PT. NOBU
30.038
20.
PT. Royal Bank
64.102
20.
PT. Bank Pundi
1.493.537
21.
PT. Bank Yudha Bakti
1.325.303
21.
PT. Bank Asiatic
1.853.257
22.
PT. Bank Maspion
1.731.799
D.
Bank Campuran
22.
PT. Bank Agris
1.058.573
23.
China Trust
2.463.629
23.
PT. Bank UFJ
2.687.909
24.
PT. Woori Bank
2.553.507
24.
PT. Rabobank Duta
2.948.485
25.
PT. Resona Perdania
3.319.911
25.
PT. Maybank Indocorp
342.112
26.
PT. Multicor
665.401
78
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Nilai Variabel Bebas dan Variabel Indikator yang Digunakan pada Penelitian
Bank dengan Kondisi Failure
NO
NAMA BANK
STATUS
CUAP
TOTAL MODAL
MODAL INTI
Lampiran 3/9
PPAP
TOTAL ASET
TOTAL
KREDIT
CADANGAN
LAINNYA
ROA
1
BBA
1
1
0,032890
0,016445
0,016453
0,346236
0,235799
0,021261
0,008000
2
BBAD
1
1
0,067044
0,042546
0,007329
0,632935
0,350196
0,021273
0,040200
3
BBAGI
1
0
0,075330
0,074739
0,119009
0,454559
0,848273
0,000000
0,008500
4
BBAGR
1
0
0,210699
0,202754
0,094482
1,091768
0,809214
0,000000
-0,010000
5
BBAST
1
1
0,175744
0,159169
0,016585
1,722529
0,966766
0,000000
0,018000
6
BBC
1
1
1,998286
1,762888
0,060618
34,454813
18,680346
0,047200
0,006100
7
BBDB
1
0
0,121466
0,084620
0,017493
1,853257
0,348552
0,000000
0,020100
8
BBEI
1
0
4,111004
0,402564
0,165836
10,292037
6,387901
0,000000
0,016200
9
BBG
1
0
0,080653
0,070065
0,008028
0,802112
0,471024
0,004196
0,064500
10
BBHS
1
1
0,030508
0,026907
0,005795
0,410701
0,324675
0,000000
0,016200
11
BBIP
1
0
0,021246
0,019668
0,000942
0,139827
0,049609
0,000000
0,032400
12
BBLl
1
0
1,406220
0,703110
0,831338
26,466353
4,746032
0,597952
0,029200
13
BBMI
1
0
0,160823
0,159088
0,007816
0,342112
0,097930
0,000000
0,073800
14
BBMN
1
1
0,017945
0,016353
0,001867
0,215766
0,125261
0,000000
0,054700
15
BBMTR
1
0
0,487932
0,321933
9,122740
2,281876
0,079241
0,030000
16
BBNN
1
0
0,613558
0,011912
0,011773
0,000072
0,030038
0,005655
0,000000
0,013500
17
BBNPP
1
0
0,209608
0,145123
0,216535
0,593165
0,622321
0,058975
0,010600
18
BBP
1
0
1,338120
0,998683
0,741127
28,868580
9,607309
0,193918
0,010000
19
BBPUNDI
1
1
0,149724
0,149582
0,034341
1,493537
1,139628
0,002780
0,010000
20
BBQNB
1
1
0,094290
0,074387
0,012503
1,247916
0,502142
0,015477
0,030000
21
BBRIA
1
1
0,215522
0,156039
0,189243
1,337961
1,036715
0,049708
-0,010000
22
BBTN
1
0
0,799368
0,673337
0,559117
26,805829
11,160966
0,044029
0,073800
23
BBWK
1
0
0,015809
0,050000
0,001856
0,251925
0,079158
0,000000
0,020500
79
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Bank dengan Kondisi Non Failure
NO
NAMA BANK
STATUS
Lampiran 4/9
CUAP
TOTAL MODAL
MODAL INTI
PPAP
TOTAL ASET
TOTAL KREDIT
CADANGAN
LAIN
ROA
1
BBARTOS
0
1
0,025622
0,024469
0,001118
0,166774
0,107964
0,000000
0,027800
2
BBB
0
1
1,132358
0,801113
0,113298
17,557864
12,452611
0,000236
0,026000
3
BBBA
0
1
0,166863
0,163551
0,006315
1,325314
0,315402
0,000003
0,683900
4
BBICB
0
1
0,262992
0,236589
0,023592
3,254898
2,528880
0,000000
0,010000
5
BBD
0
0
13,857403
9,769437
1,404586
86,617017
43,852551
3,340714
0,013100
6
BBER
0
1
0,377697
0,339115
0,054835
8,246634
2,956011
0,000000
0,029900
7
BBFI
0
0
0,030081
0,027669
0,004402
0,216063
0,166561
0,000000
-0,014800
8
BBKE
0
1
0,081253
0,078761
0,009840
0,379641
0,311323
0,000000
0,019000
9
BBTPN
0
1
0,721577
0,690631
0,079444
4,483323
3,232817
0,000000
0,040000
10
BBMD
0
0
0,466528
0,441278
0,036875
2,373156
1,722384
0,000000
0,025200
11
BBMG
0
1
1,053807
0,869247
0,076810
13,859900
6,375241
0,000115
-0,078500
12
BBMLTCR
0
0
0,146210
0,288592
0,013135
0,665401
0,322410
0,000000
0,021000
13
BBMMLTI
0
1
0,023856
0,022066
0,002955
0,332917
0,332917
0,000000
0,015000
14
BBMSP
0
1
0,125762
0,116984
0,011346
1,731799
0,796840
0,000000
0,051800
15
BBNI
0
0
17,768619
12,788511
3,383830
182,007749
63,439833
3,762160
0,017900
16
BBPI
0
1
4,884825
2,758982
0,956452
18,873999
8,534010
2,019771
0,027500
17
BBR
0
0
0,018834
0,018693
0,000406
0,064102
0,002427
0,000000
0,023800
18
BBRI
0
1
9,645651
7,531596
2,130519
94,709726
47,523002
2,172821
0,009800
19
BBRP
0
1
0,690061
0,661795
0,225111
3,319911
2,475434
0,000000
0,075000
20
BBSUMI
0
1
1,567207
1,116299
0,534501
5,526064
3,077634
0,421250
0,020000
21
BBW
0
1
0,804177
0,531527
0,056311
1,773316
0,771216
0,261175
0,014000
22
BBYB
0
0
0,130491
0,096565
0,016679
1,325303
0,707963
0,024786
0,030000
23
NBBCT
0
1
0,833123
0,801802
0,101068
3,998451
3,022975
0,000000
0,070000
80
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 5/9
ANALISIS DESKRIPTIF
Bank yang Mengalami Kondisi Failure dan Non Failure
Statistics
Cadangan Umum Aset
Total Modal
Modal Inti
PPA Wajib
Total Aset
Total kredit
Cadangan
Produktif
Valid
Return on Asset
lainnya
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
,39
,51075133
,27327047
,12885109
6,47724765
2,61169318
,04939174
,024622
,104
,198263575
,087602817
,050689745
2,300992678
,976812687
,026547191
,0048620
,00
,12146600
,08462000
,00802800
1,09176800
,50214200
,00278000
,018000
Std. Deviation
,499
,950838703
,420128351
,243099475
11,035173222
4,684629076
,127315853
,0233176
Skewness
,477
2,888
2,468
2,176
1,716
2,415
4,017
,876
Std. Error of Skewness
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
-1,951
9,308
6,710
3,761
1,433
5,856
17,249
,262
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
N
Missing
Mean
Std. Error of Mean
Median
Kurtosis
Std. Error of Kurtosis
Statistics
Cadangan Umum Aset
Total Modal
Modal Inti
PPA Wajib
Total Aset
Total kredit
Produktif
Valid
Cadangan
Return on
lainnya
Asset
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
,70
2,32023266
1,68731054
,39668839
19,68736183
8,91427852
,52187091
,050322
Std. Error of Mean
,098
1,001709187
,719720478
,175759687
9,079529597
3,639491626
,235643470
,0294273
Median
1,00
,16686300
,28859200
,03687500
3,25489800
2,47543400
,00000000
,023800
,470
4,804028495
3,451658157
,842913848
43,543894260
17,45438867
1,130106381
,1411282
N
Missing
Mean
Std. Deviation
Skewness
Std. Error of Skewness
Kurtosis
Std. Error of Kurtosis
1
-,911
2,457
2,468
2,676
2,958
2,382
2,134
4,454
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
,481
-1,291
5,285
5,261
7,207
8,967
4,663
3,395
20,856
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
,935
81
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6/9
UJI NORMALITAS DATA
One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
Unstandardized Residual
N
Normal Parametersa,b
Most Extreme Differences
46
Mean
Std. Deviation
,0000000
,42635190
Absolute
,171
Positive
,113
Negative
-,171
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
1,161
,135
a. Test distribution is Normal.
b. Calculated from data.
82
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Uji Beda Rata Rata Variabel yang Digunakan
Lampiran 7/9
Independent Samples Test
Levene's Test for
t-test for Equality of Means
Equality of
Variances
F
Sig.
T
df
Sig. (2-
Mean
Std. Error
95% Confidence Interval of the
tailed)
Difference
Difference
Difference
Lower
Cadangan Umum Aset Equal variances assumed
Produktif
Total Modal
Modal Inti
PPA Wajib
Total Aset
Total kredit
Cadangan lainnya
1,411
,241
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
11,903
,001
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
13,510
,001
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
8,284
,006
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
6,159
,017
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
8,658
,005
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
20,186
,000
Equal variances not assumed
Equal variances assumed
2,356
,132
Upper
2,128
44
,039
,304
,143
,016
,593
2,128
43,848
,039
,304
,143
,016
,593
1,836
44
,073
1,863357739
1,015140119
-,182522741
3,909238219
1,836
23,727
,079
1,863357739
1,015140119
-,233067161
3,959782639
2,036
44
,048
1,464673913
,719507171
,014602491
2,914745335
2,036
22,650
,054
1,464673913
,719507171
-,025015322
2,954363149
1,386
44
,173
,252743913
,182360077
-,114778672
,620266499
1,386
25,611
,178
,252743913
,182360077
-,122379617
,627867443
1,410
44
,165
13,210114174
9,366558867
-5,666944852
32,087173199
1,410
24,814
,171
13,210114174
9,366558867
-6,087998072
32,508226420
1,664
44
,103
6,267437304
3,767353874
-1,325165535
13,860040144
1,664
25,130
,109
6,267437304
3,767353874
-1,489539857
14,024414466
1,992
44
,053
,472479174
,237134135
-,005433273
,950391621
1,992
22,558
,059
,472479174
,237134135
-,018602130
,963560478
,862
44
,394
,0257000
,0298262
-,0344108
,0858108
,862
23,200
,398
,0257000
,0298262
-,0359708
,0873708
Return on Asset
Equal variances not assumed
83
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Logistic Regression
Lampiran 8/9
Iteration Historya,b,c
Case Processing Summary
Unweighted Casesa
N
Included in Analysis
Selected Cases
46
100,0
0
,0
46
100,0
0
,0
46
100,0
Missing Cases
Total
Unselected Cases
Total
Iteration
Percent
Step 0
-2
1
likelihood
Constant
63,770
,000
a. Constant is included in the model.
b. Initial -2 Log Likelihood: 63,770
c. Estimation terminated at iteration number 1
because parameter estimates changed by less than
a. If weight is in effect, see classification table for the total number
,001.
of cases.
Iteration Historya,b,c,d
Iteration
Step 1
Log Coefficients
-2
Model Summary
Log Coefficients
Step
-2 Log
Cox & Snell R
Nagelkerke R
likelihood
Square
Square
53,941a
,192
,256
likelihood
Constant
X1
X2
1
54,411
1,024
-1,402
-,180
1
2
53,990
1,157
-1,521
-,253
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because
3
53,943
1,176
-1,523
-,287
parameter estimates changed by less than ,001.
4
53,941
1,180
-1,523
-,294
5
53,941
1,180
-1,523
-,294
a. Method: Enter
b. Constant is included in the model.
c. Initial -2 Log Likelihood: 63,770
d. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter
estimates changed by less than ,001.
84
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 9/9
Step 1
Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test
Status Kegagalan
Status Kegagalan Bank
Bank = Tidak Gagal
= Gagal
Observed Expected Observed
Expected
1
4
4,708
1
,292
2
5
3,466
0
1,534
3
5
3,081
0
1,919
4
2
2,861
3
2,139
5
2
2,777
3
2,223
6
0
2,132
5
2,868
7
2
1,383
3
3,617
8
1
1,206
4
3,794
9
2
1,385
4
4,615
Variables in the Equation
Total
B
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
S.E.
Wald
df
Sig.
Exp
95% C.I.for
(B)
EXP(B)
Lower
X1
-1,423
,679
4,386
1
,036
,241
,064
,913
Step 1a X3
-,727
,681
1,141
1
,285
,483
,127
1,835
1,228
,560
4,808
1
,028
3,413
Constant
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: X1, X3.
Classification Tablea
Observed
Predicted
Status Kegagalan Bank
Tidak
Variables not in the Equation
Percentage
Score
Correct
Gagal
Gagal
Tidak
Step Status Kegagalan Bank
Gagal
1
Gagal
Overall Percentage
df
Sig.
X1
4,293
1
,038
X3
3,959
1
,047
9,257
2
,010
Variables
18
5
78,3
Step 0
Overall Statistics
9
14
Upper
60,9
69,6
a. The cut value is ,500
85
Universitas Sumatera Utara