Analisis Pengaruh Dana Perimbangan, Pendapatan Asli Daerah, Dan Konsumsi Masyarakat Terhadap Ketergantungan Keuangan Daerah, Pdrb Perkapita, Dan Kemiskinan Di Provinsi Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1. Data Dasar dan Hasil Olahan Untuk Total Dana Perimbangan
Tahun 2007-2011
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Kab.Asahan
Kab.Dairi
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab.Karo
Kab.Labatu
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. TapSel
Kab.TapTeng
Kab. Taput
Kab.Tobasa
Kota Binjai
Kota Medan
Kota P. Siantar
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjung Balai
Kota Tebing Tinggi
523,902
374,324
889,009
441,830
70,861
689,305
50,936
696,561
376,142
343,959
408,809
310,465
336,975
889,927
352,723
248,596
275,733
262,130
50,636
44,159
67,196
42,463
45,520
53,889
54,966
73,969
44,504
52,309
56,802
51,446
25,266
81,594
24,784
22,754
23,456
22,087
55,144
27,479
108,779
31,645
47,208
133,931
11,779
60,115
31,783
25,810
26,886
19,867
42,884
276,360
26,519
19,238
19,789
20,149
REALISASI
DP TH 2011
629,682
445,962
1,064,984
515,938
463,589
877,125
317,681
830,645
452,429
422,078
492,497
381,778
405,125
1,247,881
404,026
290,588
318,978
304,366
NO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
KAB/KOTA
Kab.Asahan
Kab.Dairi
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab.Karo
Kab.Labatu
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. TapSel
Kab.TapTeng
Kab. Taput
Kab.Tobasa
Kota Binjai
Kota Medan
Kota P. Siantar
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjung Balai
Kota Tebing Tinggi
DAU
479,299
327,835
793,142
393,390
315,309
597,473
151,147
634,428
334,738
313,958
369,275
280,440
293,537
828,705
313,942
220,077
241,922
228,058
DAK
48,288
48,026
85,590
49,370
45,055
63,972
53,791
70,342
41,495
51,300
48,019
46,949
24,832
67,201
23,107
18,136
19,508
17,807
DBH
42,406
23,000
134,850
19,712
49,323
132,880
8,640
79,815
48,000
25,178
28,671
29,065
45,002
319,695
30,153
23,851
19,720
21,327
REALISASI
DP TH 2010
569,993
398,861
1,013,582
462,472
409,687
794,325
213,578
784,585
424,233
390,436
445,965
356,454
363,371
1,215,601
367,202
262,064
281,150
267,192
NO
KAB/KOTA
DAU
DAK
DBH
NO
KAB/KOTA
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Kab.Asahan
Kab.Dairi
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab.Karo
Kab.Labatu
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. TapSel
Kab.TapTeng
Kab. Taput
Kab.Tobasa
Kota Binjai
Kota Medan
Kota P. Siantar
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjung Balai
Kota Tebing Tinggi
NO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
KAB/KOTA
Kab.Asahan
Kab.Dairi
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab.Karo
Kab.Labatu
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. TapSel
Kab.TapTeng
Kab. Taput
Kab.Tobasa
Kota Binjai
Kota Medan
Kota P. Siantar
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjung Balai
Kota Tebing Tinggi
DAU
DAK
446,561
77,532
327,835
48,026
804,029
95,766
393,390
49,370
247,309
57,820
597,473
63,972
400,243
78,074
634,437
77,477
274,928
54,190
292,588
58,629
360,547
60,756
279,899
50,019
283,641
28,399
900,206
50,645
307,529
39,229
211,207
37,461
227,872
41,326
221,405
33,285
DAU
422,762
327,408
779,762
395,779
578,103
583,481
393,414
639,593
528,955
290,589
338,052
252,144
276,423
808,665
312,043
209,457
224,504
221,914
DAK
76,650
55,301
84,730
58,203
22,889
64,975
77,364
80,131
66,721
47,840
57,793
58,321
28,369
22,325
29,785
37,131
31,158
31,156
38,141
26,346
123,956
19,705
49,323
132,839
22,910
73,565
45,632
24,307
27,106
28,578
64,106
244,940
28,093
22,186
20,374
18,912
REALISASI
DP TH 2011
562,234
402,207
1,023,751
462,465
354,452
794,284
501,227
785,479
374,750
375,524
448,409
358,496
376,146
1,195,791
374,851
270,854
289,572
273,602
DBH
37,340
26,346
98,795
23,683
102,330
114,676
17,144
58,440
61,128
24,084
26,089
23,621
57,336
226,732
27,014
24,785
17,540
18,068
REALISASI
DP TH 2010
536,752
409,055
963,287
477,665
703,322
763,132
487,922
778,164
656,804
362,513
421,934
334,086
362,128
1,057,722
368,842
271,373
273,202
271,138
DBH
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Kab.Asahan
Kab.Dairi
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab.Karo
Kab.Labatu
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. TapSel
Kab.TapTeng
Kab. Taput
Kab.Tobasa
Kota Binjai
Kota Medan
Kota P. Siantar
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjung Balai
Kota Tebing Tinggi
546,637
61,445
58,026
304,080
46,832
25,811
708,480
57,249
92,852
373,637
47,921
18,147
536,778
10,616
134,489
551,230
50,441
116,794
343,779
61,778
23,458
586,985
59,279
62,346
501,085
66,721
55,116
259,019
37,692
24,888
320,942
45,213
28,522
239,982
54,552
21,287
254,241
22,386
44,059
748,707
8,514
238,622
278,407
25,278
21,809
184,634
25,084
18,261
197,642
16,243
17,586
200,708
24,474
21,339
REALISASI
DP TH 2011
666,108
376,723
858,581
439,705
681,883
718,465
429,015
708,610
622,922
321,599
394,677
315,821
320,686
995,843
325,494
227,979
231,471
246,521
NO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
KAB/KOTA
Kab.Asahan
Kab.Dairi
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab.Karo
Kab.Labatu
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. TapSel
Kab.TapTeng
Kab. Taput
Kab.Tobasa
Kota Binjai
Kota Medan
Kota P. Siantar
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjung Balai
Kota Tebing Tinggi
DAU
493,236
272,430
637,495
334,102
471,211
484,070
315,773
528,358
455,036
226,435
286,227
210,442
226,847
574,568
251,255
163,020
174,380
179,085
REALISASI
DP TH 2010
581,368
321,961
740,198
375,425
585,772
639,170
365,720
607,344
540,471
276,530
332,236
256,617
283,871
800,050
286,819
189,472
205,656
211,015
NO
KAB/KOTA
DAU
DAK
DAK
34,699
30,635
30,280
26,660
32,120
29,699
32,491
32,920
42,596
25,399
28,836
26,657
19,770
20,480
16,620
9,000
16,910
15,170
DBH
DBH
53,433
18,896
72,423
14,663
82,441
125,401
17,456
46,066
42,839
24,696
17,173
19,518
37,254
205,002
18,944
17,452
14,366
16,760
NO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
KAB/KOTA
Kab.Asahan
Kab.Dairi
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab.Karo
Kab.Labatu
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. TapSel
Kab.TapTeng
Kab. Taput
Kab.Tobasa
Kota Binjai
Kota Medan
Kota P. Siantar
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjung Balai
Kota Tebing Tinggi
DAU
DAK
292,231
4,000
138,511
10,680
330,429
4,000
194,397
12,360
286,548
4,000
293,755
12,730
172,962
4,000
313,639
4,000
265,560
13,720
153,475
12,390
149,607
13,650
108,378
11,610
140,594
7,460
426,572
4,000
149,682
8,500
101,569
7,230
106,177
6,880
114,200
7,240
DBH
22,677
6,673
31,188
5,904
21,685
33,598
9,563
23,121
15,389
7,672
6,846
5,160
7,243
67,428
16,782
13,514
11,755
14,004
REALISASI
DP TH 2010
318,908
155,864
365,617
212,661
312,233
340,083
186,525
340,760
294,669
173,537
170,103
125,148
155,297
498,000
174,964
122,313
124,812
135,444
Lampiran 2. Data Dasar dan Hasil Olahan Untuk Ketergantungan
Keuangan Daerah Tahun 2007-2011
NO
1
KAB/KOTA
Kab.Asahan
2
Kab.Dairi
3
Deli Serdang
4
Kab.Karo
5
Kab.Labatu
6
Kab. Langkat
TOTAL
TOTAL
PENDAPATAN PENDAPATAN
TAHUN
TRANSFER
DAERAH
(JUTAAN )
(JUTAAN )
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
318,908
581,368
666,108
536,752
562,234
569,993
629,682
155,864
321,961
376,723
409,055
402,207
398,861
445,962
365,617
740,198
858,581
963,287
1,023,751
1,013,582
1,064,984
212,661
375,425
439,705
477,665
462,465
462,472
515,938
312,233
585,772
681,883
703,322
354,452
409,687
463,589
340,083
412997
631886
730923
605017
677151
720956
843678
192202
343608
402512
466826
455498
503352
549635
512883
842935
1023786
1180106
1249163
1307283
1624363
259706
409445
516302
520329
545231
523954
650260
422704
650947
763409
851494
498993
504252
670125
433586
KETERGANTUNGAN
KEUANGAN
(%)
77
92
91
89
83
79
75
81
94
94
88
88
79
81
71
88
84
82
82
78
66
82
92
85
92
85
88
79
74
90
89
83
71
81
69
78
7
Kab. Nias
8
Kab. Simalungun
9
Kab. Tapsel
10
Kab. Tapteng
11
Kab. Taput
12
Kab.Tobasa
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
639,170
718,465
763,132
794,284
794,325
877,125
186,525
365,720
429,015
487,922
501,227
213,578
317,681
340,760
607,344
708,610
778,164
785,479
784,585
830,645
294,669
540,471
622,922
656,804
374,750
424,233
452,429
173,537
276,530
321,599
362,513
375,524
390,436
422,078
170,103
332,236
394,677
421,934
448,409
445,965
492,497
125,148
256,617
663904
697234
830885
890337
994609
1108553
259213
389976
478587
541049
572673
243513
409361
416082
664017
801073
880840
959295
970541
1078593
378576
581098
705041
763158
484129
517690
652667
240245
298902
366979
422363
424551
440343
555239
210904
357837
448572
491706
549892
563642
676187
163028
280962
96
103
92
89
80
79
72
94
90
90
88
88
78
82
91
88
88
82
81
77
78
93
88
86
77
82
69
72
93
88
86
88
89
76
81
93
88
86
82
79
73
77
91
13
Kota Binjai
14
Kota Medan
15
Kota P.Siantar
16
Kota Sibolga
17
Kota T. Balai
18
Kota T. Tinggi
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
315,821
334,086
358,496
356,454
381,778
155,297
283,871
320,686
362,128
376,146
363,371
405,125
498,000
800,500
995,843
1,057,722
1,195,791
1,215,601
1,247,881
174,964
286,819
325,494
368,842
374,851
367,202
404,026
122,313
189,472
227,979
271,373
270,854
262,064
290,588
124,812
205,656
231,471
273,202
289,572
281,150
318,978
135,444
211,015
246,521
343878
384344
432910
457884
486293
203222
307467
346209
379986
396156
442054
579566
1228649
1398911
1643205
1805373
1870374
2069834
2747359
212942
318427
379287
451147
474998
482360
565384
136667
208106
247186
290292
300053
295561
385948
150037
233812
262423
330356
340938
339701
390222
156450
236430
274296
92
87
83
78
79
76
92
93
95
95
82
70
41
57
61
59
64
59
45
82
90
86
82
79
76
71
89
91
92
93
90
89
75
83
88
88
83
85
83
82
87
89
90
2008
2009
2010
2011
271,138
273,602
267,192
304,366
316885
308958
346646
411270
86
89
77
74
Lampiran 3. Gambar Kerangka Konseptual menggunakan Amos 16
Lampiran 4. Hasil Koofisien Jalur menggunakan Amos 16
Lampiran 5. Hasil Uji Asumsi menggunakan Amos 16
Assessment of normality (Group number 1)
Variable
min
max
skew
x3
327,000
19153,000
2,628
x2
3596,000
829793,000
5,091
x1
122313,00
0
1247881,000
1,197
y1
41,000
103,000
y3
139,000
780450,00
0
217300,000
18220195,00
0
y2
Multivariat
e
1,447
1,021
1,181
c.r.
12,04
2
23,33
0
kurtosi
s
7,420
29,893
c.r.
17,00
2
68,49
2
5,484
,966
2,214
-6,629
3,366
7,713
4,678
,121
,278
5,412
3,587
8,219
76,563
43,85
7
Observations farthest from the centroid (Mahalanobis distance) (Group
number 1)
Observation number Mahalanobis d-squared
p1
p2
98
82,912 ,000
,000
92
39,297 ,000
,000
97
36,715 ,000
,000
96
32,276 ,000
,000
95
25,771 ,000
,000
21
19,514 ,003
,000
42
19,404 ,004
,000
48
17,843 ,007
,000
93
14,555 ,024
,004
38
14,020 ,029
,004
36
13,653 ,034
,004
37
11,957 ,063
,100
19
11,226 ,082
,229
94
11,124 ,085
,179
20
10,816 ,094
,207
18
10,716 ,098
,166
43
10,681 ,099
,116
44
9,961 ,126
,325
57
9,952 ,127
,243
2
9,057 ,170
,672
29
7,777 ,255
,993
1
7,598 ,269
,995
Observation number
52
64
58
49
63
39
15
45
65
77
70
59
33
56
69
17
51
40
60
91
84
41
54
53
30
66
55
83
35
105
71
89
106
85
31
78
47
126
88
112
46
7
Mahalanobis d-squared
7,514
7,377
6,756
6,516
6,323
6,195
6,151
5,944
5,933
5,753
5,512
5,314
5,230
5,205
5,189
5,009
5,000
4,955
4,852
4,808
4,711
4,683
4,571
4,338
4,232
4,095
4,044
4,008
3,998
3,844
3,816
3,798
3,748
3,733
3,724
3,722
3,710
3,520
3,513
3,508
3,492
3,408
p1
,276
,287
,344
,368
,388
,402
,406
,430
,431
,451
,480
,504
,515
,518
,520
,543
,544
,550
,563
,569
,581
,585
,600
,631
,645
,664
,671
,676
,677
,698
,702
,704
,711
,713
,714
,714
,716
,741
,742
,743
,745
,756
p2
,994
,995
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
Observation number
27
3
67
28
68
25
80
107
120
109
108
8
82
50
111
113
23
16
87
79
76
86
81
32
110
22
114
61
72
121
115
104
119
9
75
122
Mahalanobis d-squared
3,377
3,341
3,315
3,225
3,106
3,072
3,047
2,996
2,995
2,946
2,877
2,836
2,836
2,825
2,753
2,713
2,631
2,619
2,591
2,561
2,487
2,461
2,419
2,353
2,337
2,332
2,215
2,163
2,120
2,106
2,080
2,024
2,020
2,014
1,984
1,980
p1
,760
,765
,768
,780
,795
,800
,803
,809
,809
,816
,824
,829
,829
,830
,839
,844
,854
,855
,858
,862
,870
,873
,877
,884
,886
,887
,899
,904
,908
,910
,912
,918
,918
,918
,921
,922
p2
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
Notes for Model (Default model)
Computation of degrees of freedom (Default model)
Number of distinct sample moments:
21
Number of distinct parameters to be estimated: 20
Degrees of freedom (21 - 20):
1
Result (Default model)
Minimum was achieved
Chi-square = 4,466
Degrees of freedom = 1
Probability level = ,035
Hasil Kesesuaian Goodness Of Fit dengan Model menggunakan Amos 16
No Goodnest of fit index Cut
of Hasil model Keterangan
value
Chi Square
Diharapkan 4,4
Baik
1
kecil
2
Probability
≥ 0,05
0.035
Baik
4
RMSEA
≤0,08
0.167
Marginal
5
GFI
≥ 0,90
0.988
Baik
6
CMIN/DF
≤2,00
1
Baik
7
TLI
≥ 0,95
0,877
Marginal
8
CFI
≥ 0,95
0,992
Baik
Covariances: (Group number 1 - Default model)
Estimate
S.E. C.R. P
x1 x2 17331428837,966 2750955291,716 6,300 ***
x2 x3
169802526,998 34075893,134 4,983 ***
x1 x3
602378825,390 91687579,600 6,570 ***
Correlations: (Group number 1 - Default model)
x1 x2
x2 x3
x1 x3
Estimate
,682
,498
,726
Label
par_1
par_2
par_3
Variances: (Group number 1 - Default model)
x1
x2
x3
e1
e2
e3
Estimate
S.E. C.R.
61794292775,168 7816428094,443 7,906
10447421963,584 1321505903,835 7,906
11133170,451
1408246,982 7,906
45,995
5,818 7,906
3364352222545,870 425560634971,317 7,906
1499356752,661
189655294,543 7,906
P
***
***
***
***
***
***
Label
par_16
par_17
par_18
par_19
par_20
par_21
Squared Multiple Correlations: (Group number 1 - Default model)
y1
y2
y3
Estimate
,517
,520
,484
Implied (for all variables) Covariances (Group number 1 - Default model)
x3
x2
x1
y1
x3
1113317
0,451
1698025
26,998
6023788
25,390
16639,5
39
x2
x1
1044742196
3,584
1733142883
7,966
6179429277
5,168
-626759,290
-913673,536
y2
3533034
886,281
1853160034
91,524
2704698906
71,007
y3
1009903
86,808
2914839744,
918
8830617647,
501
y1
y2
95,277
15316686
,209
154231,3
76
70072984873
01,960
34539090679
,587
Implied (for all variables) Correlations (Group number 1 - Default model)
x3
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
x3
1,000
,498
,726
-,511
,400
,561
y3
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
1,000
,682
-,628
,685
,529
1,000
-,377
,411
,659
1,000
-,593
-,293
1,000
,242
1,000
290795883
0,708
Implied Covariances (Group number 1 - Default model)
x2
x1
1044742196
3,584
1733142883
7,966
6179429277
5,168
-626759,290
-913673,536
y2
35330348
86,281
1853160034
91,524
2704698906
71,007
y3
10099038
6,808
2914839744,
918
8830617647,
501
x3
x2
x1
y1
x3
11133170
,451
16980252
6,998
60237882
5,390
16639,53
9
y1
y2
95,277
15316686
,209
154231,3
76
70072984873
01,960
34539090679
,587
Implied Correlations (Group number 1 - Default model)
x3
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
x3
1,000
,498
,726
-,511
,400
,561
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
1,000
,682
-,628
,685
,529
1,000
-,377
,411
,659
1,000
-,593
-,293
1,000
,242
1,000
Residual Covariances (Group number 1 - Default model)
x3
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
x3
,525
15,714
39,116
-,001
290,048
6,348
y3
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
469,887
1169,696
-,034
8701,275
189,543
2911,744
-,082
21467,533
473,712
,000
-2,746
,007
288636,065
2249,960
88,906
290795883
0,708
Standardized Residual Covariances (Group number 1 - Default model)
x3
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
x3
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
Lampiran 6. Hasil Regresi menggunakan Amos 16
Regression Weight Measurement
Estimate
S.E. C.R.
P Label
y1
Tahun 2007-2011
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Kab.Asahan
Kab.Dairi
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab.Karo
Kab.Labatu
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. TapSel
Kab.TapTeng
Kab. Taput
Kab.Tobasa
Kota Binjai
Kota Medan
Kota P. Siantar
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjung Balai
Kota Tebing Tinggi
523,902
374,324
889,009
441,830
70,861
689,305
50,936
696,561
376,142
343,959
408,809
310,465
336,975
889,927
352,723
248,596
275,733
262,130
50,636
44,159
67,196
42,463
45,520
53,889
54,966
73,969
44,504
52,309
56,802
51,446
25,266
81,594
24,784
22,754
23,456
22,087
55,144
27,479
108,779
31,645
47,208
133,931
11,779
60,115
31,783
25,810
26,886
19,867
42,884
276,360
26,519
19,238
19,789
20,149
REALISASI
DP TH 2011
629,682
445,962
1,064,984
515,938
463,589
877,125
317,681
830,645
452,429
422,078
492,497
381,778
405,125
1,247,881
404,026
290,588
318,978
304,366
NO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
KAB/KOTA
Kab.Asahan
Kab.Dairi
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab.Karo
Kab.Labatu
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. TapSel
Kab.TapTeng
Kab. Taput
Kab.Tobasa
Kota Binjai
Kota Medan
Kota P. Siantar
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjung Balai
Kota Tebing Tinggi
DAU
479,299
327,835
793,142
393,390
315,309
597,473
151,147
634,428
334,738
313,958
369,275
280,440
293,537
828,705
313,942
220,077
241,922
228,058
DAK
48,288
48,026
85,590
49,370
45,055
63,972
53,791
70,342
41,495
51,300
48,019
46,949
24,832
67,201
23,107
18,136
19,508
17,807
DBH
42,406
23,000
134,850
19,712
49,323
132,880
8,640
79,815
48,000
25,178
28,671
29,065
45,002
319,695
30,153
23,851
19,720
21,327
REALISASI
DP TH 2010
569,993
398,861
1,013,582
462,472
409,687
794,325
213,578
784,585
424,233
390,436
445,965
356,454
363,371
1,215,601
367,202
262,064
281,150
267,192
NO
KAB/KOTA
DAU
DAK
DBH
NO
KAB/KOTA
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Kab.Asahan
Kab.Dairi
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab.Karo
Kab.Labatu
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. TapSel
Kab.TapTeng
Kab. Taput
Kab.Tobasa
Kota Binjai
Kota Medan
Kota P. Siantar
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjung Balai
Kota Tebing Tinggi
NO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
KAB/KOTA
Kab.Asahan
Kab.Dairi
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab.Karo
Kab.Labatu
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. TapSel
Kab.TapTeng
Kab. Taput
Kab.Tobasa
Kota Binjai
Kota Medan
Kota P. Siantar
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjung Balai
Kota Tebing Tinggi
DAU
DAK
446,561
77,532
327,835
48,026
804,029
95,766
393,390
49,370
247,309
57,820
597,473
63,972
400,243
78,074
634,437
77,477
274,928
54,190
292,588
58,629
360,547
60,756
279,899
50,019
283,641
28,399
900,206
50,645
307,529
39,229
211,207
37,461
227,872
41,326
221,405
33,285
DAU
422,762
327,408
779,762
395,779
578,103
583,481
393,414
639,593
528,955
290,589
338,052
252,144
276,423
808,665
312,043
209,457
224,504
221,914
DAK
76,650
55,301
84,730
58,203
22,889
64,975
77,364
80,131
66,721
47,840
57,793
58,321
28,369
22,325
29,785
37,131
31,158
31,156
38,141
26,346
123,956
19,705
49,323
132,839
22,910
73,565
45,632
24,307
27,106
28,578
64,106
244,940
28,093
22,186
20,374
18,912
REALISASI
DP TH 2011
562,234
402,207
1,023,751
462,465
354,452
794,284
501,227
785,479
374,750
375,524
448,409
358,496
376,146
1,195,791
374,851
270,854
289,572
273,602
DBH
37,340
26,346
98,795
23,683
102,330
114,676
17,144
58,440
61,128
24,084
26,089
23,621
57,336
226,732
27,014
24,785
17,540
18,068
REALISASI
DP TH 2010
536,752
409,055
963,287
477,665
703,322
763,132
487,922
778,164
656,804
362,513
421,934
334,086
362,128
1,057,722
368,842
271,373
273,202
271,138
DBH
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Kab.Asahan
Kab.Dairi
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab.Karo
Kab.Labatu
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. TapSel
Kab.TapTeng
Kab. Taput
Kab.Tobasa
Kota Binjai
Kota Medan
Kota P. Siantar
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjung Balai
Kota Tebing Tinggi
546,637
61,445
58,026
304,080
46,832
25,811
708,480
57,249
92,852
373,637
47,921
18,147
536,778
10,616
134,489
551,230
50,441
116,794
343,779
61,778
23,458
586,985
59,279
62,346
501,085
66,721
55,116
259,019
37,692
24,888
320,942
45,213
28,522
239,982
54,552
21,287
254,241
22,386
44,059
748,707
8,514
238,622
278,407
25,278
21,809
184,634
25,084
18,261
197,642
16,243
17,586
200,708
24,474
21,339
REALISASI
DP TH 2011
666,108
376,723
858,581
439,705
681,883
718,465
429,015
708,610
622,922
321,599
394,677
315,821
320,686
995,843
325,494
227,979
231,471
246,521
NO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
KAB/KOTA
Kab.Asahan
Kab.Dairi
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab.Karo
Kab.Labatu
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. TapSel
Kab.TapTeng
Kab. Taput
Kab.Tobasa
Kota Binjai
Kota Medan
Kota P. Siantar
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjung Balai
Kota Tebing Tinggi
DAU
493,236
272,430
637,495
334,102
471,211
484,070
315,773
528,358
455,036
226,435
286,227
210,442
226,847
574,568
251,255
163,020
174,380
179,085
REALISASI
DP TH 2010
581,368
321,961
740,198
375,425
585,772
639,170
365,720
607,344
540,471
276,530
332,236
256,617
283,871
800,050
286,819
189,472
205,656
211,015
NO
KAB/KOTA
DAU
DAK
DAK
34,699
30,635
30,280
26,660
32,120
29,699
32,491
32,920
42,596
25,399
28,836
26,657
19,770
20,480
16,620
9,000
16,910
15,170
DBH
DBH
53,433
18,896
72,423
14,663
82,441
125,401
17,456
46,066
42,839
24,696
17,173
19,518
37,254
205,002
18,944
17,452
14,366
16,760
NO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
KAB/KOTA
Kab.Asahan
Kab.Dairi
Kab. Deli Serdang
Kab.Karo
Kab.Labatu
Kab. Langkat
Kab. Nias
Kab. Simalungun
Kab. TapSel
Kab.TapTeng
Kab. Taput
Kab.Tobasa
Kota Binjai
Kota Medan
Kota P. Siantar
Kota Sibolga
Kota Tanjung Balai
Kota Tebing Tinggi
DAU
DAK
292,231
4,000
138,511
10,680
330,429
4,000
194,397
12,360
286,548
4,000
293,755
12,730
172,962
4,000
313,639
4,000
265,560
13,720
153,475
12,390
149,607
13,650
108,378
11,610
140,594
7,460
426,572
4,000
149,682
8,500
101,569
7,230
106,177
6,880
114,200
7,240
DBH
22,677
6,673
31,188
5,904
21,685
33,598
9,563
23,121
15,389
7,672
6,846
5,160
7,243
67,428
16,782
13,514
11,755
14,004
REALISASI
DP TH 2010
318,908
155,864
365,617
212,661
312,233
340,083
186,525
340,760
294,669
173,537
170,103
125,148
155,297
498,000
174,964
122,313
124,812
135,444
Lampiran 2. Data Dasar dan Hasil Olahan Untuk Ketergantungan
Keuangan Daerah Tahun 2007-2011
NO
1
KAB/KOTA
Kab.Asahan
2
Kab.Dairi
3
Deli Serdang
4
Kab.Karo
5
Kab.Labatu
6
Kab. Langkat
TOTAL
TOTAL
PENDAPATAN PENDAPATAN
TAHUN
TRANSFER
DAERAH
(JUTAAN )
(JUTAAN )
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
318,908
581,368
666,108
536,752
562,234
569,993
629,682
155,864
321,961
376,723
409,055
402,207
398,861
445,962
365,617
740,198
858,581
963,287
1,023,751
1,013,582
1,064,984
212,661
375,425
439,705
477,665
462,465
462,472
515,938
312,233
585,772
681,883
703,322
354,452
409,687
463,589
340,083
412997
631886
730923
605017
677151
720956
843678
192202
343608
402512
466826
455498
503352
549635
512883
842935
1023786
1180106
1249163
1307283
1624363
259706
409445
516302
520329
545231
523954
650260
422704
650947
763409
851494
498993
504252
670125
433586
KETERGANTUNGAN
KEUANGAN
(%)
77
92
91
89
83
79
75
81
94
94
88
88
79
81
71
88
84
82
82
78
66
82
92
85
92
85
88
79
74
90
89
83
71
81
69
78
7
Kab. Nias
8
Kab. Simalungun
9
Kab. Tapsel
10
Kab. Tapteng
11
Kab. Taput
12
Kab.Tobasa
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
639,170
718,465
763,132
794,284
794,325
877,125
186,525
365,720
429,015
487,922
501,227
213,578
317,681
340,760
607,344
708,610
778,164
785,479
784,585
830,645
294,669
540,471
622,922
656,804
374,750
424,233
452,429
173,537
276,530
321,599
362,513
375,524
390,436
422,078
170,103
332,236
394,677
421,934
448,409
445,965
492,497
125,148
256,617
663904
697234
830885
890337
994609
1108553
259213
389976
478587
541049
572673
243513
409361
416082
664017
801073
880840
959295
970541
1078593
378576
581098
705041
763158
484129
517690
652667
240245
298902
366979
422363
424551
440343
555239
210904
357837
448572
491706
549892
563642
676187
163028
280962
96
103
92
89
80
79
72
94
90
90
88
88
78
82
91
88
88
82
81
77
78
93
88
86
77
82
69
72
93
88
86
88
89
76
81
93
88
86
82
79
73
77
91
13
Kota Binjai
14
Kota Medan
15
Kota P.Siantar
16
Kota Sibolga
17
Kota T. Balai
18
Kota T. Tinggi
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
2006
2007
315,821
334,086
358,496
356,454
381,778
155,297
283,871
320,686
362,128
376,146
363,371
405,125
498,000
800,500
995,843
1,057,722
1,195,791
1,215,601
1,247,881
174,964
286,819
325,494
368,842
374,851
367,202
404,026
122,313
189,472
227,979
271,373
270,854
262,064
290,588
124,812
205,656
231,471
273,202
289,572
281,150
318,978
135,444
211,015
246,521
343878
384344
432910
457884
486293
203222
307467
346209
379986
396156
442054
579566
1228649
1398911
1643205
1805373
1870374
2069834
2747359
212942
318427
379287
451147
474998
482360
565384
136667
208106
247186
290292
300053
295561
385948
150037
233812
262423
330356
340938
339701
390222
156450
236430
274296
92
87
83
78
79
76
92
93
95
95
82
70
41
57
61
59
64
59
45
82
90
86
82
79
76
71
89
91
92
93
90
89
75
83
88
88
83
85
83
82
87
89
90
2008
2009
2010
2011
271,138
273,602
267,192
304,366
316885
308958
346646
411270
86
89
77
74
Lampiran 3. Gambar Kerangka Konseptual menggunakan Amos 16
Lampiran 4. Hasil Koofisien Jalur menggunakan Amos 16
Lampiran 5. Hasil Uji Asumsi menggunakan Amos 16
Assessment of normality (Group number 1)
Variable
min
max
skew
x3
327,000
19153,000
2,628
x2
3596,000
829793,000
5,091
x1
122313,00
0
1247881,000
1,197
y1
41,000
103,000
y3
139,000
780450,00
0
217300,000
18220195,00
0
y2
Multivariat
e
1,447
1,021
1,181
c.r.
12,04
2
23,33
0
kurtosi
s
7,420
29,893
c.r.
17,00
2
68,49
2
5,484
,966
2,214
-6,629
3,366
7,713
4,678
,121
,278
5,412
3,587
8,219
76,563
43,85
7
Observations farthest from the centroid (Mahalanobis distance) (Group
number 1)
Observation number Mahalanobis d-squared
p1
p2
98
82,912 ,000
,000
92
39,297 ,000
,000
97
36,715 ,000
,000
96
32,276 ,000
,000
95
25,771 ,000
,000
21
19,514 ,003
,000
42
19,404 ,004
,000
48
17,843 ,007
,000
93
14,555 ,024
,004
38
14,020 ,029
,004
36
13,653 ,034
,004
37
11,957 ,063
,100
19
11,226 ,082
,229
94
11,124 ,085
,179
20
10,816 ,094
,207
18
10,716 ,098
,166
43
10,681 ,099
,116
44
9,961 ,126
,325
57
9,952 ,127
,243
2
9,057 ,170
,672
29
7,777 ,255
,993
1
7,598 ,269
,995
Observation number
52
64
58
49
63
39
15
45
65
77
70
59
33
56
69
17
51
40
60
91
84
41
54
53
30
66
55
83
35
105
71
89
106
85
31
78
47
126
88
112
46
7
Mahalanobis d-squared
7,514
7,377
6,756
6,516
6,323
6,195
6,151
5,944
5,933
5,753
5,512
5,314
5,230
5,205
5,189
5,009
5,000
4,955
4,852
4,808
4,711
4,683
4,571
4,338
4,232
4,095
4,044
4,008
3,998
3,844
3,816
3,798
3,748
3,733
3,724
3,722
3,710
3,520
3,513
3,508
3,492
3,408
p1
,276
,287
,344
,368
,388
,402
,406
,430
,431
,451
,480
,504
,515
,518
,520
,543
,544
,550
,563
,569
,581
,585
,600
,631
,645
,664
,671
,676
,677
,698
,702
,704
,711
,713
,714
,714
,716
,741
,742
,743
,745
,756
p2
,994
,995
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
Observation number
27
3
67
28
68
25
80
107
120
109
108
8
82
50
111
113
23
16
87
79
76
86
81
32
110
22
114
61
72
121
115
104
119
9
75
122
Mahalanobis d-squared
3,377
3,341
3,315
3,225
3,106
3,072
3,047
2,996
2,995
2,946
2,877
2,836
2,836
2,825
2,753
2,713
2,631
2,619
2,591
2,561
2,487
2,461
2,419
2,353
2,337
2,332
2,215
2,163
2,120
2,106
2,080
2,024
2,020
2,014
1,984
1,980
p1
,760
,765
,768
,780
,795
,800
,803
,809
,809
,816
,824
,829
,829
,830
,839
,844
,854
,855
,858
,862
,870
,873
,877
,884
,886
,887
,899
,904
,908
,910
,912
,918
,918
,918
,921
,922
p2
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
Notes for Model (Default model)
Computation of degrees of freedom (Default model)
Number of distinct sample moments:
21
Number of distinct parameters to be estimated: 20
Degrees of freedom (21 - 20):
1
Result (Default model)
Minimum was achieved
Chi-square = 4,466
Degrees of freedom = 1
Probability level = ,035
Hasil Kesesuaian Goodness Of Fit dengan Model menggunakan Amos 16
No Goodnest of fit index Cut
of Hasil model Keterangan
value
Chi Square
Diharapkan 4,4
Baik
1
kecil
2
Probability
≥ 0,05
0.035
Baik
4
RMSEA
≤0,08
0.167
Marginal
5
GFI
≥ 0,90
0.988
Baik
6
CMIN/DF
≤2,00
1
Baik
7
TLI
≥ 0,95
0,877
Marginal
8
CFI
≥ 0,95
0,992
Baik
Covariances: (Group number 1 - Default model)
Estimate
S.E. C.R. P
x1 x2 17331428837,966 2750955291,716 6,300 ***
x2 x3
169802526,998 34075893,134 4,983 ***
x1 x3
602378825,390 91687579,600 6,570 ***
Correlations: (Group number 1 - Default model)
x1 x2
x2 x3
x1 x3
Estimate
,682
,498
,726
Label
par_1
par_2
par_3
Variances: (Group number 1 - Default model)
x1
x2
x3
e1
e2
e3
Estimate
S.E. C.R.
61794292775,168 7816428094,443 7,906
10447421963,584 1321505903,835 7,906
11133170,451
1408246,982 7,906
45,995
5,818 7,906
3364352222545,870 425560634971,317 7,906
1499356752,661
189655294,543 7,906
P
***
***
***
***
***
***
Label
par_16
par_17
par_18
par_19
par_20
par_21
Squared Multiple Correlations: (Group number 1 - Default model)
y1
y2
y3
Estimate
,517
,520
,484
Implied (for all variables) Covariances (Group number 1 - Default model)
x3
x2
x1
y1
x3
1113317
0,451
1698025
26,998
6023788
25,390
16639,5
39
x2
x1
1044742196
3,584
1733142883
7,966
6179429277
5,168
-626759,290
-913673,536
y2
3533034
886,281
1853160034
91,524
2704698906
71,007
y3
1009903
86,808
2914839744,
918
8830617647,
501
y1
y2
95,277
15316686
,209
154231,3
76
70072984873
01,960
34539090679
,587
Implied (for all variables) Correlations (Group number 1 - Default model)
x3
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
x3
1,000
,498
,726
-,511
,400
,561
y3
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
1,000
,682
-,628
,685
,529
1,000
-,377
,411
,659
1,000
-,593
-,293
1,000
,242
1,000
290795883
0,708
Implied Covariances (Group number 1 - Default model)
x2
x1
1044742196
3,584
1733142883
7,966
6179429277
5,168
-626759,290
-913673,536
y2
35330348
86,281
1853160034
91,524
2704698906
71,007
y3
10099038
6,808
2914839744,
918
8830617647,
501
x3
x2
x1
y1
x3
11133170
,451
16980252
6,998
60237882
5,390
16639,53
9
y1
y2
95,277
15316686
,209
154231,3
76
70072984873
01,960
34539090679
,587
Implied Correlations (Group number 1 - Default model)
x3
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
x3
1,000
,498
,726
-,511
,400
,561
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
1,000
,682
-,628
,685
,529
1,000
-,377
,411
,659
1,000
-,593
-,293
1,000
,242
1,000
Residual Covariances (Group number 1 - Default model)
x3
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
x3
,525
15,714
39,116
-,001
290,048
6,348
y3
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
469,887
1169,696
-,034
8701,275
189,543
2911,744
-,082
21467,533
473,712
,000
-2,746
,007
288636,065
2249,960
88,906
290795883
0,708
Standardized Residual Covariances (Group number 1 - Default model)
x3
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
x3
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
x2
x1
y1
y2
y3
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
Lampiran 6. Hasil Regresi menggunakan Amos 16
Regression Weight Measurement
Estimate
S.E. C.R.
P Label
y1