Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

Bandung Institute of Technology

  Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta Dr. Armi Susandi, MT. OUTLINE 

  Background 

  Objective 

  Basic Concept 

  Data and Methodology 

  Result 

  Analysis  Background 

  Global climate change causes many areas in Indonesia to be vulnerable on its impacts.

   Jakarta is projected to be a vulnerable region with high magnitude as compared with the other Indonesia regions.

   Up to recent, disaster frequently occurred in Jakarta as impact of pattern change in rainfall.

  Objective 

  Building model to make map of vulnerable index to climate change impacts in Jakarta.

   Performing analysis regarding to Jakarta vulnerable index to find the solution as adaptation planning to climate change.

  Basic Concept

CLIMATE CHANGE Human Interference

  Including Variability Exposure

  V Initial Impacts U

MITIGATION

  Of Effects LN

  Of Climate Change via S E T R

  GHG Sources and Sinks C

  Autonomous A A B

  Planned P

  Adaptations

  IL ADAPTATION

  IM

  IT

  IE To the Impacts Vulnerability ‘The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effect of climate change, including climate variability and extremes’

• + - +
• +

  Adaptive Capacity AC ‘The ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences’

  Potential Impacts PI ‘All impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without considering adaptation’

  Exposure E ‘The nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic

  Sensitivity S ‘The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate- Data and Methodology 

Data required:

  1. Projection of rainfall, land use change, sea level rise, subsidence, and distribution of population.

  2. Map of rivers, prosperity 

  Methodology:

  1. Projection using Fast Fourier Transform and

Least Square Non-Linear on variable parameters.

Flow of the Work

  Variable Parameters -1 Prediction Model Model Output Building Spatial Map

Overlay

  Variable Parameters -2 Variable Parameters -3 Variable Parameters -4 Variable Parameters -5

  Vulnerability Index Constant Parameters -

  2 Sea Level Variable

  Rise Subsidence Variable

  Land-use

Variable

  Change Rivers Constant Prosperity Constant Projection of

Mean Rainfall in Wet Months

over Jakarta

  100

_{2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035}

mm

  600 5 6 8 5 3 2 Projection of 4 9 6

Rainfall in

  4 6 0

Jakarta

  4 2 4 3 8 8

  (Wet Months

  3 5 2

  2010 )

  3 1 6 2 8 0 2 4 4 2 0 8

  100

_{2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035}

mm

  600 5 6 8 5 3 2 Projection of 4 9 6

Rainfall in

  4 6 0

Jakarta

  4 2 4 3 8 8

  (Wet Months

  3 5 2

  2015 )

  3 1 6 2 8 0 2 4 4 2 0 8

  100

_{2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035}

mm

  600 5 6 8 5 3 2 Projection of 4 9 6

Rainfall in

  4 6 0

Jakarta

  4 2 4 3 8 8

  (Wet Months

  3 5 2

  2020 )

  3 1 6 2 8 0 2 4 4 2 0 8

  100

_{2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035}

mm

  600 5 6 8 5 3 2 Projection of 4 9 6

Rainfall in

  4 6 0

Jakarta

  4 2 4 3 8 8

  (Wet Months

  3 5 2

  2025 )

  3 1 6 2 8 0 2 4 4 2 0 8

  100

_{2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035}

mm

  600 5 6 8 5 3 2 Projection of 4 9 6

Rainfall in

  4 6 0

Jakarta

  4 2 4 3 8 8

  (Wet Months

  3 5 2

  2030 )

  3 1 6 2 8 0 2 4 4 2 0 8

  100

_{2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035}

mm

  600 5 6 8 5 3 2 Projection of 4 9 6

Rainfall in

  4 6 0

Jakarta

  4 2 4 3 8 8

  (Wet Months

  3 5 2

  2035 )

  3 1 6 2 8 0 2 4 4 2 0 8

  

Projection of Sea Level

Rise at North of Jakarta

  201 Tanjung Priok Cilincing

  201

  5 Pademangan Tanjung Priok Koja Cilincing

  202 Pademangan Tanjung Priok Koja Cilincing

  202

  5 Penjaringan Pademangan Tanjung Priok Koja Cilincing

  203 Penjaringan Pademangan Tanjung Priok Koja Cilincing

  203

  5 Penjaringan Pademangan Tanjung Priok Koja Cilincing Subsidence in 1982 - 1991

  Subsidence in 1991 - 1997

Population in Jakarta (1972)

  AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH

  VEGETASI

Population in Jakarta (1983)

  AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH

  VEGETASI

Population in Jakarta (1993)

  AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH

  VEGETASI

Population in Jakarta (1998)

  AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH

  VEGETASI

Population in Jakarta (2002)

  AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH

  VEGETASI

  ( 2010 )

AIR/SUNGAI

FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA

PEMUKIMAN

RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT

SAWAH

  

VEGETASI

  ( 2015 ) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH

  VEGETASI

  ( 2020 ) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH

  VEGETASI

  ( 2025 ) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH

  VEGETASI

  ( 2030 ) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH

  VEGETASI

  ( 2035 )

AIR/SUNGAI

FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA

PEMUKIMAN

RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT

SAWAH

  

VEGETASI

  Map of Prosperity in Jakarta 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9

  100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%

  Index of Prosperity Result: “Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta”

2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035

  Flood

  Map of Climate Change

Vulnerability in Jakarta

  2010 Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Percentage of

  0 . 6

  Index Range:

  0 . 5

  0.0 – 0.2 = 50 %

  0 . 4

  0.2 – 0.4 = 20 %

  Map of Climate Change

Vulnerability in Jakarta

  2015 Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Percentage of

  0 . 6

  Index Range:

  0 . 5

  0.0 – 0.2 = 30 %

  0 . 4

  0.2 – 0.4 = 20 %

  Map of Climate Change

Vulnerability in Jakarta

  2020 Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Percentage of

  0 . 6

  Index Range:

  0 . 5

  0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %

  0 . 4

  0.2 – 0.4 = 20 %

  Map of Climate Change

Vulnerability in Jakarta

  2025 Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Percentage of

  0 . 6

  Index Range:

  0 . 5

  0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %

  0 . 4

  0.2 – 0.4 = 5 %

  Map of Climate Change

Vulnerability in Jakarta

  2030 Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Percentage of

  0 . 6

  Index Range:

  0 . 5

  0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %

  0 . 4

  0.2 – 0.4 = 0 %

  Map of Climate Change

Vulnerability in Jakarta

  2035 Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Percentage of

  0 . 6

  Index Range:

  0 . 5

  0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %

  0 . 4

  0.2 – 0.4 = 0 %

  

Adaptation to Climate

Change

  

From North Area

Mangrove 30 % of the distance 2010

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7 0 . 6 0 . 5 0 . 4

  

From North Area

Mangrove 60 % of the distance 2015

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7 0 . 6 0 . 5 0 . 4

  

From North Area

Mangrove 100 % of the distance 2020

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7 0 . 6 0 . 5 0 . 4

  

From North Area

Sea Wall 30 % of the distance 2025

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7 0 . 6 0 . 5 0 . 4

  

From North Area

Sea Wall 60 % of the distance 2030

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7 0 . 6 0 . 5 0 . 4

  

From North Area

Sea Wall 100 % of the distance 2035

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7 0 . 6 0 . 5 0 . 4

  

From South Area

2010

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Development:

  0 . 6

  0 . 5 0 . 4

  

From South Area

2015

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Development:

  0 . 6

  1. Water Resource

  0 . 5 0 . 4

  2. Water Collector

  

From South Area

2020

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Development:

  0 . 6

  1. Water Resource

  0 . 5 0 . 4

  2. Water Collector

  

From South Area

2025

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Development:

  0 . 6

  1. Water Resource

  0 . 5 0 . 4

  2. Water Collector

  

From South Area

2030

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Development:

  0 . 6

  1. Water Resource

  0 . 5 0 . 4

  2. Water Collector

  

From South Area

2035

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Development:

  0 . 6

  1. Water Resource

  0 . 5 0 . 4

  2. Water Collector

  

Area

Mangrove

  

30 % of the distance

2010

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Development:

  0 . 6

  0 . 5 0 . 4

  

Area

Mangrove 60 % of the distance 2015

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Development:

  0 . 6

  1. Water Resource

  0 . 5 0 . 4

  2. Water Collector

  

Area

Mangrove 100 % of the distance 2020

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Development:

  0 . 6

  1. Water Resource

  0 . 5 0 . 4

  2. Water Collector

  

Area

Sea Wall 30 % of the distance 2025

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Development:

  0 . 6

  1. Water Resource

  0 . 5 0 . 4

  2. Water Collector

  

Area

Sea Wall 60 % of the distance 2030

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Development:

  0 . 6

  1. Water Resource

  0 . 5 0 . 4

  2. Water Collector

  

Area

Sea Wall 100 % of the distance 2035

  Index of Climate Change Vulnerability

  1

  0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7

  Development:

  0 . 6

  1. Water Resource

  0 . 5 0 . 4

  2. Water Collector

  armi@geoph.itb.ac.id

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