Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Penawaran Kacang Tanah di Sumatera Utara
72
LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1.
Tahun
Penawaran
Kacang
Tanah
Tahun 1998 – 2013 (Ton)
di
Sumatera
Utara
Januari-
April-
Juli-
Oktober-
Januari -
Maret
Juni
September
Desember
Desember
1998
5.499
5.070
5.704
9.764
26.037
1999
4.590
4.009
5.143
8.244
21.986
2000
5.142
5.650
4.168
8.941
23.901
2001
6.098
4.762
4.826
6.799
22.485
2002
7.182
3.855
6.539
5.722
23.298
2003
8.052
5.022
5.492
6.531
25.097
2004
8.556
8.212
5.466
6.474
28.708
2005
5.484
6.505
4.863
4.191
21.043
2006
4.221
6.049
3.505
6.343
20.118
2007
4.596
4.192
3.941
7.600
20.329
2008
5.425
4.617
3.844
5.431
19.317
2009
5.260
3.457
2.938
5.115
16.770
2010
5.183
3.304
3.555
4.407
16.449
2011
2.463
2.262
2.344
4.024
11.093
2012
2.569
2.746
2.655
4.104
12.074
2013
2.715
2.874
2.269
3.493
11.351
Rata-Rata
5.190
4.537
4.203
6.074
20.004
Universitas Sumatera Utara
73
Lampiran 2.
Tahun
Luas Areal Panen Kacang Tanah di Sumatera Utara
Tahun 1998 – 2013 (Ha)
Januari-
April-
Juli-
Oktober-
Januari-
Maret
Juni
September
Desember
Desember
1998
5.256
5.023
5.288
9.340
24.907
1999
4.484
4.098
5.354
8.361
22.297
2000
4.765
5.575
4.066
8.393
22.799
2001
5.588
4.302
5.358
5.882
21.130
2002
6.464
3.542
6.287
5.139
21.432
2003
7.225
4.632
5.199
5.906
22.962
2004
7.480
7.639
5.059
5.851
26.029
2005
4.747
6.065
4.588
3.795
19.195
2006
3.383
5.585
3.198
5.825
17.991
2007
3.559
3.660
3.562
6.913
17.694
2008
4.356
4.052
3.447
4.771
16.626
2009
4.272
2.957
2.567
4.498
14.294
2010
4.393
2.849
3.247
4.031
14.520
2011
2.358
2.228
2.319
3.868
10.773
2012
1.816
2.345
2.382
3.611
10.154
2013
1.954
2.429
2.001
2.993
9.377
Rata-Rata
4.506
4.186
3.995
5.574
18.261
Universitas Sumatera Utara
74
Lampiran 3. Harga Riil Kacang Tanah
Sumatera Utara (Rp/Kg)
Tahun
yang Sudah
Dikupas
di
Januari -
April -
Juli -
Oktober -
Januari -
Maret
Juni
September
Desember
Desember
1998
2.611
2.154
1.732
1.761
2.065
1999
1.734
1.804
1.983
2.154
1.919
2000
2.018
2.067
2.105
2.197
2.097
2001
2.000
2.104
2.091
2.067
2.066
2002
2.000
1.911
1.919
1.784
1.903
2003
2.048
2.019
2.086
2.029
2.045
2004
6.417
6.430
6.523
6.487
6.464
2005
6.138
6.214
6.166
5.911
6.108
2006
6.615
6.403
6.459
6.482
6.490
2007
6.482
6.769
7.026
7.143
6.855
2008
5.784
6.233
7.723
7.849
6.897
2009
7.178
7.456
7.876
8.005
7.629
2010
8.735
8.895
8.901
8.910
8.860
2011
8.900
8.950
9.224
9.304
9.094
2012
9.361
9.240
9.255
8.821
9.169
2013
9.380
9.384
9.118
8.312
9.049
Rata- Rata
5.463
5.502
5.637
5.576
5.544
Universitas Sumatera Utara
75
Lampiran 4. Harga Riil Jagung Pipilan
Tahun 1998 – 2013 (Rp/Kg)
Tahun
di
Sumatera
Utara
Januari -
April -
Juli -
Oktober -
Januari -
Maret
Juni
September
Desember
Desember
1998
426
352
267
259
326
1999
270
271
298
363
301
2000
325
358
373
413
367
2001
358
349
345
332
346
2002
292
297
316
325
307
2003
331
330
334
329
331
2004
1.020
1.091
1.112
1.077
1.075
2005
1.074
1.155
1.201
1.122
1.138
2006
1.099
1.083
1.073
1.138
1.098
2007
1.135
1.273
1.175
1.187
1.193
2008
1.147
1.319
1.656
1.627
1.437
2009
1.605
1.626
1.646
1.576
1.613
2010
1.639
1.643
1.583
1.552
1.604
2011
1.584
1.580
1.556
1.551
1.568
2012
1.566
1.620
1.579
1.570
1.584
2013
1.572
1.687
1.616
1.496
1.593
965
1.002
1.008
995
993
Rata-Rata
Universitas Sumatera Utara
76
Lampiran 5. Harga Riil Pupuk TSP di Sumatera Utara Tahun 1998 – 2013
(Rp/Kg)
Tahun
Januari -
April -
Juli -
Oktober -
Januari -
Maret
Juni
September
Desember
Desember
1998
870
780
649
649
737
1999
544
606
716
762
657
2000
741
775
775
796
772
2001
828
782
766
730
776
2002
689
695
706
717
702
2003
691
773
675
681
705
2004
2.259
2.284
2.277
2.283
2.276
2005
2.257
2.262
2.242
2.134
2.224
2006
2.217
2.180
2.214
2.200
2.203
2007
2.266
2.257
2.305
2.253
2.270
2008
3.212
3.597
4.468
4.601
3.969
2009
5.453
5.287
5.181
4.945
5.216
2010
4.286
4.184
4.011
3.899
4.095
2011
3.905
3.920
3.787
3.748
3.840
2012
4.312
4.262
4.208
4.167
4.237
2013
3.906
3.922
3.727
3.502
3.764
Rata-Rata
2.402
2.410
2.419
2.379
2.403
Universitas Sumatera Utara
77
Lampiran 6.
Tahun
Penawaran Kacang Tanah pada Periode Sebelumnya di
Sumatera Utara pada Tahun 1998-2013 (Ton)
Januari -
April -
Juli -
Oktober -
Januari -
Maret
Juni
September
Desember
Desember
1998
9.696
5.499
5.070
5.704
25.969
1999
9.764
4.590
4.009
5.143
23.506
2000
8.244
5.142
5.650
4.168
23.204
2001
8.941
6.098
4.762
4.826
24.627
2002
6.799
7.182
3.855
6.539
24.375
2003
5.722
8.052
5.022
5.492
24.288
2004
6.531
8.556
8.212
5.466
28.765
2005
6.474
5.484
6.505
4.863
23.326
2006
4.191
4.221
6.049
3.505
17.966
2007
6.343
4.596
4.192
3.941
19.072
2008
7.600
5.425
4.617
3.844
21.485
2009
5.431
5.260
3.457
2.937
17.086
2010
5.115
5.183
3.304
3.555
17.157
2011
4.407
2.463
2.262
2.344
11.477
2012
4.023
2.569
2.746
2.655
11.993
2013
4.104
2.715
2.874
2.269
11.962
Rata- Rata
6.462
5.190
4.537
4.203
20.391
Universitas Sumatera Utara
78
Lampiran 7. Gabungan Variabel Penawaran Kacang Tanah (Y t),
Luas Areal Panen Kacang Tanah (LA), Harga Riil Kacang
Tanah (HKTt), Harga Riil Jagung Pipilan (HJt), Harga Riil
Pupuk TSP (HTSPt), dan Penawaran Kacang Tanah pada
Periode Sebelumnya (Yt-1) di Sumatera Utara pada
Tahun 1998-2013
No
Kuartal
1
Jan-Mar
2
April-Juni
3
Juli-Sept
4
Tahun
Yt
LA
HKTt
5.499
5.256
2.611
426
870
9.696
5.070
5.023
2.154
352
780
5.499
5.704
5.288
1.732
267
649
5.070
Okt-Des
9.764
9.340
1.761
259
649
5.704
5
Jan-Mar
4.590
4.484
1.734
270
544
9.764
6
April-Juni
4.009
4.098
1.804
271
606
4.590
7
Juli-Sept
5.143
5.354
1.983
298
716
4.009
8
Okt-Des
8.244
8.361
2.154
363
762
5.143
9
Jan-Mar
5.142
4.765
2.018
325
741
8.244
10
April-Juni
5.650
5.575
2.067
358
775
5.142
11
Juli-Sept
4.168
4.066
2.105
373
775
5.650
12
Okt-Des
8.941
8.393
2.197
413
796
4.168
13
Jan-Mar
6.098
5.588
2.000
358
828
8.941
14
April-Juni
4.762
4.302
2.104
349
782
6.098
15
Juli-Sept
4.826
5.358
2.091
345
766
4.762
16
Okt-Des
6.799
5.882
2.067
332
730
4.826
17
Jan-Mar
7.182
6.464
2.000
292
689
6.799
18
April-Juni
3.855
3.542
1.911
297
695
7.182
19
Juli-Sept
6.539
6.287
1.919
316
706
3.855
20
Okt-Des
5.722
5.139
1.784
325
717
6.539
21
Jan-Mar
8.052
7.225
2.048
331
691
5.722
22
April-Juni
5.022
4.632
2.019
330
773
8.052
23
Juli-Sept
5.492
5.199
2.086
334
675
5.022
24
Okt-Des
6.531
5.906
2.029
329
681
5.492
25
Jan-Mar
8.556
7.480
6.417
1.020
2.259
6.531
26
April-Juni
8.212
7.639
6.430
1.091
2.284
8.556
27
Juli-Sept
5.466
5.059
6.523
1.112
2.277
8.212
28
Okt-Des
6.474
5.851
6.487
1.077
2.283
5.466
29
Jan-Mar
5.484
4.747
6.138
1.074
2.257
6.474
30
April-Juni
6.505
6.065
6.214
1.155
2.262
5.484
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
HJt
HTSPt
Yt-1
Universitas Sumatera Utara
79
Lampiran 7.
Lanjutan
31
32
Juli-Sept
Okt-Des
4.863
4.191
4.588
3.795
6.166
5.911
1.201
1.122
2.242
2.134
6.505
4.863
33
34
35
36
37
Jan-Mar
April-Juni
Juli-Sept
Okt-Des
Jan-Mar
4.221
6.049
3.505
6.343
4.596
3.383
5.585
3.198
5.825
3.559
6.615
6.403
6.459
6.482
6.482
1.099
1.083
1.073
1.138
1.135
2.217
2.180
2.214
2.200
2.266
4.191
4.221
6.049
3.505
6.343
38
April-Juni
4.192
3.660
6.769
1.273
2.257
4.596
39
40
41
Juli-Sept
Okt-Des
Jan-Mar
3.941
7.600
5.425
3.562
6.913
4.356
7.026
7.143
5.784
1.175
1.187
1.147
2.305
2.253
3.212
4.192
3.941
7.600
42
April-Juni
4.617
4.052
6.233
1.319
3.597
5.425
43
Juli-Sept
3.844
3.447
7.723
1.656
4.468
4.617
44
45
46
Okt-Des
Jan-Mar
April-Juni
5.431
5.260
3.457
4.771
4.272
2.957
7.849
7.178
7.456
1.627
1.605
1.626
4.601
5.453
5.287
3.844
5.431
5.260
47
48
Juli-Sept
Okt-Des
2.938
5.115
2.567
4.498
7.876
8.005
1.646
1.576
5.181
4.945
3.457
2.938
49
Jan-Mar
5.183
4.393
8.735
1.639
4.286
5.115
50
51
52
April-Juni
Juli-Sept
Okt-Des
3.304
3.555
4.407
2.849
3.247
4.031
8.895
8.901
8.910
1.643
1.583
1.552
4.184
4.011
3.899
5.183
3.304
3.555
53
54
Jan-Mar
April-Juni
2.463
2.262
2.358
2.228
8.900
8.950
1.584
1.580
3.905
3.920
4.407
2.463
55
Juli-Sept
2.344
2.319
9.224
1.556
3.787
2.262
56
Okt-Des
4.024
3.868
9.304
1.551
3.748
2.344
57
58
59
60
Jan-Mar
April-Juni
Juli-Sept
Okt-Des
2012
2.569
2.746
2.655
4.104
1.816
2.345
2.382
3.611
9.361
9.240
9.255
8.821
1.566
1.620
1.579
1.570
4.312
4.262
4.208
4.167
4.024
2.569
2.746
2.655
61
62
63
64
Jan-Mar
April-Juni
Juli-Sept
Okt-Des
2013
2.715
2.874
2.269
3.493
1.954
2.429
2.001
2.993
9.380
9.384
9.118
8.312
1.572
1.687
1.616
1.496
3.906
3.922
3.727
3.502
4.104
2.715
2.874
2.269
Rata-Rata
5.001
4.565
5.544
993
2.403
5.098
Maximum
9.764
9.340
9.384
1.687
5.453
9.764
Minimum
2.262
1.816
1.732
259
544
2.262
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Universitas Sumatera Utara
80
Lampiran 8. Hasil Uji Akar Unit (unit root test) pada tingkat level
Pada Bentuk Persamaan Linear
Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process)
Series: YT, LA, HKTT, HJT, HTSPT, YT_1
Date: 01/12/16 Time: 09:23
Sample: 1998Q1 2013Q4
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel
Total (balanced) observations: 378
Cross-sections included: 6
Method
PP - Fisher Chi-square
PP - Choi Z-stat
Statistic
59.1576
-3.76919
Prob.**
0.0000
0.0001
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an
asymptotic Chi-square distribution. All other tests
assume asymptotic normality.
Intermediate Phillips-Perron test results UNTITLED
Series
YT
LA
HKTT
HJT
HTSPT
YT_1
Prob.
0.0001
0.0002
0.7981
0.7960
0.7004
0.0000
Bandwidth
1.0
1.0
4.0
3.0
4.0
0.0
Obs
63
63
63
63
63
63
Universitas Sumatera Utara
81
Lampiran 9. Hasil Uji Derajat Integrasi pada tingkat First Difference
Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process)
Series: YT, LA, HKTT, HJT, HTSPT, YT_1
Date: 01/12/16 Time: 09:24
Sample: 1998Q1 2013Q4
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel
Total (balanced) observations: 372
Cross-sections included: 6
Method
PP - Fisher Chi-square
PP - Choi Z-stat
Statistic
158.458
-11.1535
Prob.**
0.0000
0.0000
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an
asymptotic Chi-square distribution. All other tests
assume asymptotic normality.
Intermediate Phillips-Perron test results D(UNTITLED)
Series
D(YT)
D(LA)
D(HKTT)
D(HJT)
D(HTSPT)
D(YT_1)
Prob.
0.0001
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
Bandwidth
13.0
13.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
13.0
Obs
62
62
62
62
62
62
Universitas Sumatera Utara
82
Lampiran 10. Hasil Uji Kointegrasi (Uji Stasioneritas Nilai Residual)
Null Hypothesis: RESID01 has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Bandwidth: 20 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
Phillips-Perron test statistic
Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level
Adj. t-Stat
Prob.*
-19.02145
-3.540198
-2.909206
-2.592215
0.0000
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Residual variance (no correction)
HAC corrected variance (Bartlett kernel)
89349.04
17114.81
Phillips-Perron Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(RESID01)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/12/16 Time: 09:27
Sample (adjusted): 1998Q3 2013Q4
Included observations: 62 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
RESID01(-1)
C
-1.364261
-1.607204
0.120718
38.59170
-11.30124
-0.041646
0.0000
0.9669
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.680372
0.675044
303.8541
5539640.
-441.3837
127.7179
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
3.034815
533.0318
14.30270
14.37132
14.32964
2.237124
Universitas Sumatera Utara
83
Lampiran 11. Hasil Estimasi Penawaran Kacang Tanah di Sumatera Utara
Dependent Variable: D(YT)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/12/16 Time: 09:26
Sample (adjusted): 1998Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 63 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(LA)
D(HKTT)
D(HJT)
D(HTSPT)
D(YT_1)
C
1.062111
0.286277
-2.716593
0.504846
0.057447
12.21562
0.026563
0.132992
0.950135
0.190738
0.024607
42.90922
39.98449
2.152582
-2.859164
2.646805
2.334600
0.284685
0.0000
0.0356
0.0059
0.0105
0.0231
0.7769
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.971886
0.969420
334.5805
6380814.
-452.4518
394.0984
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
-31.84127
1913.306
14.55402
14.75813
14.63430
2.716279
Universitas Sumatera Utara
84
Lampiran 12. Hasil Uji Linearitas
Ramsey RESET Test:
F-statistic
Log likelihood ratio
0.003949
0.004443
Prob. F(1,56)
Prob. Chi-Square(1)
0.9501
0.9469
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: D(YT)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/12/16 Time: 09:28
Sample: 1998Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 63
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(LA)
D(HKTT)
D(HJT)
D(HTSPT)
D(YT_1)
C
FITTED^2
1.062449
0.285666
-2.711980
0.503831
0.058103
14.32813
-5.72E-07
0.027335
0.134521
0.961353
0.193103
0.026927
54.80818
9.10E-06
38.86763
2.123585
-2.821003
2.609131
2.157817
0.261423
-0.062844
0.0000
0.0381
0.0066
0.0116
0.0352
0.7947
0.9501
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.971888
0.968876
337.5427
6380364.
-452.4496
322.6771
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
-31.84127
1913.306
14.58570
14.82383
14.67936
2.719787
Universitas Sumatera Utara
85
Lampiran 13. Hasil Uji Autokorelasi
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
9.852159
16.61714
Prob. F(2,55)
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.0002
0.0002
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/12/16 Time: 09:28
Sample: 1998Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 63
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(LA)
D(HKTT)
D(HJT)
D(HTSPT)
D(YT_1)
C
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)
-0.008961
-0.031830
0.649043
-0.105450
0.014480
-4.260384
-0.527944
-0.410001
0.024710
0.116404
0.847937
0.170474
0.022018
37.50381
0.128444
0.135221
-0.362640
-0.273441
0.765437
-0.618571
0.657617
-0.113599
-4.110311
-3.032085
0.7183
0.7855
0.4473
0.5388
0.5135
0.9100
0.0001
0.0037
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.263764
0.170061
292.2572
4697784.
-442.8063
2.814902
0.014030
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
9.02E-16
320.8058
14.31131
14.58346
14.41835
2.278603
Universitas Sumatera Utara
86
Lampiran 14. Hasil Uji Heteroskedastisitas
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
0.184104
5.077932
14.63912
Prob. F(20,42)
Prob. Chi-Square(20)
Prob. Chi-Square(20)
0.9999
0.9997
0.7967
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/12/16 Time: 09:29
Sample: 1998Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 63
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
D(LA)
(D(LA))^2
(D(LA))*(D(HKTT))
(D(LA))*(D(HJT))
(D(LA))*(D(HTSPT))
(D(LA))*(D(YT_1))
D(HKTT)
(D(HKTT))^2
(D(HKTT))*(D(HJT))
(D(HKTT))*(D(HTSPT))
(D(HKTT))*(D(YT_1))
D(HJT)
(D(HJT))^2
(D(HJT))*(D(HTSPT))
(D(HJT))*(D(YT_1))
D(HTSPT)
(D(HTSPT))^2
(D(HTSPT))*(D(YT_1))
D(YT_1)
(D(YT_1))^2
203294.5
16.69002
-0.013535
-0.055278
0.365182
-0.167398
-0.015623
83.06253
-0.272622
5.346577
-0.630387
-0.018612
-749.0775
-8.337769
-0.422944
0.339747
465.0347
-0.967678
-0.161782
16.89341
-0.008904
78532.43
32.65749
0.013033
0.182986
1.036654
0.269715
0.019680
234.4964
0.435495
5.560746
1.106195
0.168563
1284.413
14.93815
7.104087
0.871739
546.2331
1.207999
0.245881
32.55115
0.011272
2.588670
0.511063
-1.038472
-0.302088
0.352270
-0.620647
-0.793860
0.354217
-0.626004
0.961486
-0.569869
-0.110413
-0.583206
-0.558153
-0.059535
0.389735
0.851348
-0.801059
-0.657971
0.518980
-0.789902
0.0132
0.6120
0.3050
0.7641
0.7264
0.5382
0.4317
0.7249
0.5347
0.3418
0.5718
0.9126
0.5629
0.5797
0.9528
0.6987
0.3994
0.4276
0.5141
0.6065
0.4340
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.080602
-0.357206
315665.9
4.19E+12
-874.3547
0.184104
0.999923
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
101282.8
270959.7
28.42396
29.13834
28.70493
1.250622
Universitas Sumatera Utara
87
Lampiran 15. Hasil Uji Multikolinieritas
D(YT)
D(LA)
D(HKTT)
D(HJT)
D(HTSPT)
D(YT_1)
D(YT)
1.000000
0.981686
0.144053
0.106632
-0.014829
-0.408275
D(LA)
0.981686
1.000000
0.140608
0.119942
-0.049378
-0.468394
D(HKTT)
0.144053
0.140608
1.000000
0.864594
0.464563
-0.039937
D(HJT)
0.106632
0.119942
0.864594
1.000000
0.658625
-0.006825
D(HTSPT)
-0.014829
-0.049378
0.464563
0.658625
1.000000
0.147277
D(YT_1)
-0.408275
-0.468394
-0.039937
-0.006825
0.147277
1.000000
Universitas Sumatera Utara
LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1.
Tahun
Penawaran
Kacang
Tanah
Tahun 1998 – 2013 (Ton)
di
Sumatera
Utara
Januari-
April-
Juli-
Oktober-
Januari -
Maret
Juni
September
Desember
Desember
1998
5.499
5.070
5.704
9.764
26.037
1999
4.590
4.009
5.143
8.244
21.986
2000
5.142
5.650
4.168
8.941
23.901
2001
6.098
4.762
4.826
6.799
22.485
2002
7.182
3.855
6.539
5.722
23.298
2003
8.052
5.022
5.492
6.531
25.097
2004
8.556
8.212
5.466
6.474
28.708
2005
5.484
6.505
4.863
4.191
21.043
2006
4.221
6.049
3.505
6.343
20.118
2007
4.596
4.192
3.941
7.600
20.329
2008
5.425
4.617
3.844
5.431
19.317
2009
5.260
3.457
2.938
5.115
16.770
2010
5.183
3.304
3.555
4.407
16.449
2011
2.463
2.262
2.344
4.024
11.093
2012
2.569
2.746
2.655
4.104
12.074
2013
2.715
2.874
2.269
3.493
11.351
Rata-Rata
5.190
4.537
4.203
6.074
20.004
Universitas Sumatera Utara
73
Lampiran 2.
Tahun
Luas Areal Panen Kacang Tanah di Sumatera Utara
Tahun 1998 – 2013 (Ha)
Januari-
April-
Juli-
Oktober-
Januari-
Maret
Juni
September
Desember
Desember
1998
5.256
5.023
5.288
9.340
24.907
1999
4.484
4.098
5.354
8.361
22.297
2000
4.765
5.575
4.066
8.393
22.799
2001
5.588
4.302
5.358
5.882
21.130
2002
6.464
3.542
6.287
5.139
21.432
2003
7.225
4.632
5.199
5.906
22.962
2004
7.480
7.639
5.059
5.851
26.029
2005
4.747
6.065
4.588
3.795
19.195
2006
3.383
5.585
3.198
5.825
17.991
2007
3.559
3.660
3.562
6.913
17.694
2008
4.356
4.052
3.447
4.771
16.626
2009
4.272
2.957
2.567
4.498
14.294
2010
4.393
2.849
3.247
4.031
14.520
2011
2.358
2.228
2.319
3.868
10.773
2012
1.816
2.345
2.382
3.611
10.154
2013
1.954
2.429
2.001
2.993
9.377
Rata-Rata
4.506
4.186
3.995
5.574
18.261
Universitas Sumatera Utara
74
Lampiran 3. Harga Riil Kacang Tanah
Sumatera Utara (Rp/Kg)
Tahun
yang Sudah
Dikupas
di
Januari -
April -
Juli -
Oktober -
Januari -
Maret
Juni
September
Desember
Desember
1998
2.611
2.154
1.732
1.761
2.065
1999
1.734
1.804
1.983
2.154
1.919
2000
2.018
2.067
2.105
2.197
2.097
2001
2.000
2.104
2.091
2.067
2.066
2002
2.000
1.911
1.919
1.784
1.903
2003
2.048
2.019
2.086
2.029
2.045
2004
6.417
6.430
6.523
6.487
6.464
2005
6.138
6.214
6.166
5.911
6.108
2006
6.615
6.403
6.459
6.482
6.490
2007
6.482
6.769
7.026
7.143
6.855
2008
5.784
6.233
7.723
7.849
6.897
2009
7.178
7.456
7.876
8.005
7.629
2010
8.735
8.895
8.901
8.910
8.860
2011
8.900
8.950
9.224
9.304
9.094
2012
9.361
9.240
9.255
8.821
9.169
2013
9.380
9.384
9.118
8.312
9.049
Rata- Rata
5.463
5.502
5.637
5.576
5.544
Universitas Sumatera Utara
75
Lampiran 4. Harga Riil Jagung Pipilan
Tahun 1998 – 2013 (Rp/Kg)
Tahun
di
Sumatera
Utara
Januari -
April -
Juli -
Oktober -
Januari -
Maret
Juni
September
Desember
Desember
1998
426
352
267
259
326
1999
270
271
298
363
301
2000
325
358
373
413
367
2001
358
349
345
332
346
2002
292
297
316
325
307
2003
331
330
334
329
331
2004
1.020
1.091
1.112
1.077
1.075
2005
1.074
1.155
1.201
1.122
1.138
2006
1.099
1.083
1.073
1.138
1.098
2007
1.135
1.273
1.175
1.187
1.193
2008
1.147
1.319
1.656
1.627
1.437
2009
1.605
1.626
1.646
1.576
1.613
2010
1.639
1.643
1.583
1.552
1.604
2011
1.584
1.580
1.556
1.551
1.568
2012
1.566
1.620
1.579
1.570
1.584
2013
1.572
1.687
1.616
1.496
1.593
965
1.002
1.008
995
993
Rata-Rata
Universitas Sumatera Utara
76
Lampiran 5. Harga Riil Pupuk TSP di Sumatera Utara Tahun 1998 – 2013
(Rp/Kg)
Tahun
Januari -
April -
Juli -
Oktober -
Januari -
Maret
Juni
September
Desember
Desember
1998
870
780
649
649
737
1999
544
606
716
762
657
2000
741
775
775
796
772
2001
828
782
766
730
776
2002
689
695
706
717
702
2003
691
773
675
681
705
2004
2.259
2.284
2.277
2.283
2.276
2005
2.257
2.262
2.242
2.134
2.224
2006
2.217
2.180
2.214
2.200
2.203
2007
2.266
2.257
2.305
2.253
2.270
2008
3.212
3.597
4.468
4.601
3.969
2009
5.453
5.287
5.181
4.945
5.216
2010
4.286
4.184
4.011
3.899
4.095
2011
3.905
3.920
3.787
3.748
3.840
2012
4.312
4.262
4.208
4.167
4.237
2013
3.906
3.922
3.727
3.502
3.764
Rata-Rata
2.402
2.410
2.419
2.379
2.403
Universitas Sumatera Utara
77
Lampiran 6.
Tahun
Penawaran Kacang Tanah pada Periode Sebelumnya di
Sumatera Utara pada Tahun 1998-2013 (Ton)
Januari -
April -
Juli -
Oktober -
Januari -
Maret
Juni
September
Desember
Desember
1998
9.696
5.499
5.070
5.704
25.969
1999
9.764
4.590
4.009
5.143
23.506
2000
8.244
5.142
5.650
4.168
23.204
2001
8.941
6.098
4.762
4.826
24.627
2002
6.799
7.182
3.855
6.539
24.375
2003
5.722
8.052
5.022
5.492
24.288
2004
6.531
8.556
8.212
5.466
28.765
2005
6.474
5.484
6.505
4.863
23.326
2006
4.191
4.221
6.049
3.505
17.966
2007
6.343
4.596
4.192
3.941
19.072
2008
7.600
5.425
4.617
3.844
21.485
2009
5.431
5.260
3.457
2.937
17.086
2010
5.115
5.183
3.304
3.555
17.157
2011
4.407
2.463
2.262
2.344
11.477
2012
4.023
2.569
2.746
2.655
11.993
2013
4.104
2.715
2.874
2.269
11.962
Rata- Rata
6.462
5.190
4.537
4.203
20.391
Universitas Sumatera Utara
78
Lampiran 7. Gabungan Variabel Penawaran Kacang Tanah (Y t),
Luas Areal Panen Kacang Tanah (LA), Harga Riil Kacang
Tanah (HKTt), Harga Riil Jagung Pipilan (HJt), Harga Riil
Pupuk TSP (HTSPt), dan Penawaran Kacang Tanah pada
Periode Sebelumnya (Yt-1) di Sumatera Utara pada
Tahun 1998-2013
No
Kuartal
1
Jan-Mar
2
April-Juni
3
Juli-Sept
4
Tahun
Yt
LA
HKTt
5.499
5.256
2.611
426
870
9.696
5.070
5.023
2.154
352
780
5.499
5.704
5.288
1.732
267
649
5.070
Okt-Des
9.764
9.340
1.761
259
649
5.704
5
Jan-Mar
4.590
4.484
1.734
270
544
9.764
6
April-Juni
4.009
4.098
1.804
271
606
4.590
7
Juli-Sept
5.143
5.354
1.983
298
716
4.009
8
Okt-Des
8.244
8.361
2.154
363
762
5.143
9
Jan-Mar
5.142
4.765
2.018
325
741
8.244
10
April-Juni
5.650
5.575
2.067
358
775
5.142
11
Juli-Sept
4.168
4.066
2.105
373
775
5.650
12
Okt-Des
8.941
8.393
2.197
413
796
4.168
13
Jan-Mar
6.098
5.588
2.000
358
828
8.941
14
April-Juni
4.762
4.302
2.104
349
782
6.098
15
Juli-Sept
4.826
5.358
2.091
345
766
4.762
16
Okt-Des
6.799
5.882
2.067
332
730
4.826
17
Jan-Mar
7.182
6.464
2.000
292
689
6.799
18
April-Juni
3.855
3.542
1.911
297
695
7.182
19
Juli-Sept
6.539
6.287
1.919
316
706
3.855
20
Okt-Des
5.722
5.139
1.784
325
717
6.539
21
Jan-Mar
8.052
7.225
2.048
331
691
5.722
22
April-Juni
5.022
4.632
2.019
330
773
8.052
23
Juli-Sept
5.492
5.199
2.086
334
675
5.022
24
Okt-Des
6.531
5.906
2.029
329
681
5.492
25
Jan-Mar
8.556
7.480
6.417
1.020
2.259
6.531
26
April-Juni
8.212
7.639
6.430
1.091
2.284
8.556
27
Juli-Sept
5.466
5.059
6.523
1.112
2.277
8.212
28
Okt-Des
6.474
5.851
6.487
1.077
2.283
5.466
29
Jan-Mar
5.484
4.747
6.138
1.074
2.257
6.474
30
April-Juni
6.505
6.065
6.214
1.155
2.262
5.484
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
HJt
HTSPt
Yt-1
Universitas Sumatera Utara
79
Lampiran 7.
Lanjutan
31
32
Juli-Sept
Okt-Des
4.863
4.191
4.588
3.795
6.166
5.911
1.201
1.122
2.242
2.134
6.505
4.863
33
34
35
36
37
Jan-Mar
April-Juni
Juli-Sept
Okt-Des
Jan-Mar
4.221
6.049
3.505
6.343
4.596
3.383
5.585
3.198
5.825
3.559
6.615
6.403
6.459
6.482
6.482
1.099
1.083
1.073
1.138
1.135
2.217
2.180
2.214
2.200
2.266
4.191
4.221
6.049
3.505
6.343
38
April-Juni
4.192
3.660
6.769
1.273
2.257
4.596
39
40
41
Juli-Sept
Okt-Des
Jan-Mar
3.941
7.600
5.425
3.562
6.913
4.356
7.026
7.143
5.784
1.175
1.187
1.147
2.305
2.253
3.212
4.192
3.941
7.600
42
April-Juni
4.617
4.052
6.233
1.319
3.597
5.425
43
Juli-Sept
3.844
3.447
7.723
1.656
4.468
4.617
44
45
46
Okt-Des
Jan-Mar
April-Juni
5.431
5.260
3.457
4.771
4.272
2.957
7.849
7.178
7.456
1.627
1.605
1.626
4.601
5.453
5.287
3.844
5.431
5.260
47
48
Juli-Sept
Okt-Des
2.938
5.115
2.567
4.498
7.876
8.005
1.646
1.576
5.181
4.945
3.457
2.938
49
Jan-Mar
5.183
4.393
8.735
1.639
4.286
5.115
50
51
52
April-Juni
Juli-Sept
Okt-Des
3.304
3.555
4.407
2.849
3.247
4.031
8.895
8.901
8.910
1.643
1.583
1.552
4.184
4.011
3.899
5.183
3.304
3.555
53
54
Jan-Mar
April-Juni
2.463
2.262
2.358
2.228
8.900
8.950
1.584
1.580
3.905
3.920
4.407
2.463
55
Juli-Sept
2.344
2.319
9.224
1.556
3.787
2.262
56
Okt-Des
4.024
3.868
9.304
1.551
3.748
2.344
57
58
59
60
Jan-Mar
April-Juni
Juli-Sept
Okt-Des
2012
2.569
2.746
2.655
4.104
1.816
2.345
2.382
3.611
9.361
9.240
9.255
8.821
1.566
1.620
1.579
1.570
4.312
4.262
4.208
4.167
4.024
2.569
2.746
2.655
61
62
63
64
Jan-Mar
April-Juni
Juli-Sept
Okt-Des
2013
2.715
2.874
2.269
3.493
1.954
2.429
2.001
2.993
9.380
9.384
9.118
8.312
1.572
1.687
1.616
1.496
3.906
3.922
3.727
3.502
4.104
2.715
2.874
2.269
Rata-Rata
5.001
4.565
5.544
993
2.403
5.098
Maximum
9.764
9.340
9.384
1.687
5.453
9.764
Minimum
2.262
1.816
1.732
259
544
2.262
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Universitas Sumatera Utara
80
Lampiran 8. Hasil Uji Akar Unit (unit root test) pada tingkat level
Pada Bentuk Persamaan Linear
Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process)
Series: YT, LA, HKTT, HJT, HTSPT, YT_1
Date: 01/12/16 Time: 09:23
Sample: 1998Q1 2013Q4
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel
Total (balanced) observations: 378
Cross-sections included: 6
Method
PP - Fisher Chi-square
PP - Choi Z-stat
Statistic
59.1576
-3.76919
Prob.**
0.0000
0.0001
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an
asymptotic Chi-square distribution. All other tests
assume asymptotic normality.
Intermediate Phillips-Perron test results UNTITLED
Series
YT
LA
HKTT
HJT
HTSPT
YT_1
Prob.
0.0001
0.0002
0.7981
0.7960
0.7004
0.0000
Bandwidth
1.0
1.0
4.0
3.0
4.0
0.0
Obs
63
63
63
63
63
63
Universitas Sumatera Utara
81
Lampiran 9. Hasil Uji Derajat Integrasi pada tingkat First Difference
Null Hypothesis: Unit root (individual unit root process)
Series: YT, LA, HKTT, HJT, HTSPT, YT_1
Date: 01/12/16 Time: 09:24
Sample: 1998Q1 2013Q4
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
Newey-West bandwidth selection using Bartlett kernel
Total (balanced) observations: 372
Cross-sections included: 6
Method
PP - Fisher Chi-square
PP - Choi Z-stat
Statistic
158.458
-11.1535
Prob.**
0.0000
0.0000
** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an
asymptotic Chi-square distribution. All other tests
assume asymptotic normality.
Intermediate Phillips-Perron test results D(UNTITLED)
Series
D(YT)
D(LA)
D(HKTT)
D(HJT)
D(HTSPT)
D(YT_1)
Prob.
0.0001
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
Bandwidth
13.0
13.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
13.0
Obs
62
62
62
62
62
62
Universitas Sumatera Utara
82
Lampiran 10. Hasil Uji Kointegrasi (Uji Stasioneritas Nilai Residual)
Null Hypothesis: RESID01 has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Bandwidth: 20 (Newey-West using Bartlett kernel)
Phillips-Perron test statistic
Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level
Adj. t-Stat
Prob.*
-19.02145
-3.540198
-2.909206
-2.592215
0.0000
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Residual variance (no correction)
HAC corrected variance (Bartlett kernel)
89349.04
17114.81
Phillips-Perron Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(RESID01)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/12/16 Time: 09:27
Sample (adjusted): 1998Q3 2013Q4
Included observations: 62 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
RESID01(-1)
C
-1.364261
-1.607204
0.120718
38.59170
-11.30124
-0.041646
0.0000
0.9669
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.680372
0.675044
303.8541
5539640.
-441.3837
127.7179
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
3.034815
533.0318
14.30270
14.37132
14.32964
2.237124
Universitas Sumatera Utara
83
Lampiran 11. Hasil Estimasi Penawaran Kacang Tanah di Sumatera Utara
Dependent Variable: D(YT)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/12/16 Time: 09:26
Sample (adjusted): 1998Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 63 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(LA)
D(HKTT)
D(HJT)
D(HTSPT)
D(YT_1)
C
1.062111
0.286277
-2.716593
0.504846
0.057447
12.21562
0.026563
0.132992
0.950135
0.190738
0.024607
42.90922
39.98449
2.152582
-2.859164
2.646805
2.334600
0.284685
0.0000
0.0356
0.0059
0.0105
0.0231
0.7769
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.971886
0.969420
334.5805
6380814.
-452.4518
394.0984
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
-31.84127
1913.306
14.55402
14.75813
14.63430
2.716279
Universitas Sumatera Utara
84
Lampiran 12. Hasil Uji Linearitas
Ramsey RESET Test:
F-statistic
Log likelihood ratio
0.003949
0.004443
Prob. F(1,56)
Prob. Chi-Square(1)
0.9501
0.9469
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: D(YT)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/12/16 Time: 09:28
Sample: 1998Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 63
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(LA)
D(HKTT)
D(HJT)
D(HTSPT)
D(YT_1)
C
FITTED^2
1.062449
0.285666
-2.711980
0.503831
0.058103
14.32813
-5.72E-07
0.027335
0.134521
0.961353
0.193103
0.026927
54.80818
9.10E-06
38.86763
2.123585
-2.821003
2.609131
2.157817
0.261423
-0.062844
0.0000
0.0381
0.0066
0.0116
0.0352
0.7947
0.9501
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.971888
0.968876
337.5427
6380364.
-452.4496
322.6771
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
-31.84127
1913.306
14.58570
14.82383
14.67936
2.719787
Universitas Sumatera Utara
85
Lampiran 13. Hasil Uji Autokorelasi
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
9.852159
16.61714
Prob. F(2,55)
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.0002
0.0002
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/12/16 Time: 09:28
Sample: 1998Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 63
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(LA)
D(HKTT)
D(HJT)
D(HTSPT)
D(YT_1)
C
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)
-0.008961
-0.031830
0.649043
-0.105450
0.014480
-4.260384
-0.527944
-0.410001
0.024710
0.116404
0.847937
0.170474
0.022018
37.50381
0.128444
0.135221
-0.362640
-0.273441
0.765437
-0.618571
0.657617
-0.113599
-4.110311
-3.032085
0.7183
0.7855
0.4473
0.5388
0.5135
0.9100
0.0001
0.0037
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.263764
0.170061
292.2572
4697784.
-442.8063
2.814902
0.014030
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
9.02E-16
320.8058
14.31131
14.58346
14.41835
2.278603
Universitas Sumatera Utara
86
Lampiran 14. Hasil Uji Heteroskedastisitas
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
0.184104
5.077932
14.63912
Prob. F(20,42)
Prob. Chi-Square(20)
Prob. Chi-Square(20)
0.9999
0.9997
0.7967
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/12/16 Time: 09:29
Sample: 1998Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 63
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
D(LA)
(D(LA))^2
(D(LA))*(D(HKTT))
(D(LA))*(D(HJT))
(D(LA))*(D(HTSPT))
(D(LA))*(D(YT_1))
D(HKTT)
(D(HKTT))^2
(D(HKTT))*(D(HJT))
(D(HKTT))*(D(HTSPT))
(D(HKTT))*(D(YT_1))
D(HJT)
(D(HJT))^2
(D(HJT))*(D(HTSPT))
(D(HJT))*(D(YT_1))
D(HTSPT)
(D(HTSPT))^2
(D(HTSPT))*(D(YT_1))
D(YT_1)
(D(YT_1))^2
203294.5
16.69002
-0.013535
-0.055278
0.365182
-0.167398
-0.015623
83.06253
-0.272622
5.346577
-0.630387
-0.018612
-749.0775
-8.337769
-0.422944
0.339747
465.0347
-0.967678
-0.161782
16.89341
-0.008904
78532.43
32.65749
0.013033
0.182986
1.036654
0.269715
0.019680
234.4964
0.435495
5.560746
1.106195
0.168563
1284.413
14.93815
7.104087
0.871739
546.2331
1.207999
0.245881
32.55115
0.011272
2.588670
0.511063
-1.038472
-0.302088
0.352270
-0.620647
-0.793860
0.354217
-0.626004
0.961486
-0.569869
-0.110413
-0.583206
-0.558153
-0.059535
0.389735
0.851348
-0.801059
-0.657971
0.518980
-0.789902
0.0132
0.6120
0.3050
0.7641
0.7264
0.5382
0.4317
0.7249
0.5347
0.3418
0.5718
0.9126
0.5629
0.5797
0.9528
0.6987
0.3994
0.4276
0.5141
0.6065
0.4340
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.080602
-0.357206
315665.9
4.19E+12
-874.3547
0.184104
0.999923
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
101282.8
270959.7
28.42396
29.13834
28.70493
1.250622
Universitas Sumatera Utara
87
Lampiran 15. Hasil Uji Multikolinieritas
D(YT)
D(LA)
D(HKTT)
D(HJT)
D(HTSPT)
D(YT_1)
D(YT)
1.000000
0.981686
0.144053
0.106632
-0.014829
-0.408275
D(LA)
0.981686
1.000000
0.140608
0.119942
-0.049378
-0.468394
D(HKTT)
0.144053
0.140608
1.000000
0.864594
0.464563
-0.039937
D(HJT)
0.106632
0.119942
0.864594
1.000000
0.658625
-0.006825
D(HTSPT)
-0.014829
-0.049378
0.464563
0.658625
1.000000
0.147277
D(YT_1)
-0.408275
-0.468394
-0.039937
-0.006825
0.147277
1.000000
Universitas Sumatera Utara