AALI Berharap pada Potensi Rebound Harga CPO 20180517 NHKS Company Report (Bahasa)
Kinerja 1Q18 Kurang Memuaskan AALI mengalami penurunan penjualan sebesar 1% dari Rp4,49 triliun pada
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BVPS (IDR) 9,141 9,631 10,225 10,882 EBITDA margin 26.4% 24.5% 22.3% 22.2% NPM 14.2% 11.6% 10.1% 10.1% ROE 13.7% 11.1% 10.2% 10.6% ROA 8.8% 8.2% 7.6% 8.0% ROIC 9.3% 8.9% 8.2% 8.7% P/E 16.1x 12.6x 11.9x 10.8x P/BV 1.8x 1.4x 1.2x 1.1x EV/EBITDA 9.7x 6.9x 6.4x 5.7x DPS (IDR) 469 448 454 502
EPS growth 224.2% 0.2% -3.3% 10.4%
EBITDA 3,728 4,240 4,287 4,698 Net profit 2,007 2,010 1,943 2,145 EPS (IDR) 1,043 1,044 1,010 1,115
Sales growth 8.1% 22.5% 11.3% 10.1%
Sales 14,121 17,306 19,264 21,209
2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Target Harga Rp14.800 Kami menggunakan estimasi forward P/E sebesar 13,3x (1SD di bawah rata- rata 2 tahun terakhir sebesar 14,3x) untuk memperoleh target harga pada Desember 2018. Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/E 2018E sebesar 14,7x. Saat ini, AALI diperdagangkan pada P/E 2018E sebesar 11,9x.
Moratorium pembukaan lahan baru sawit akan menghindarkan pasar dari kondisi oversupply dalam jangka panjang.
Moratorium Sawit Menjaga Suplai Berlebih Pada jangka panjang, harga kelapa sawit akan didukung oleh perlambatan pertumbuhan produksi akibat turunnya aktifitas penanaman baru.
Harga CPO Penentu Kinerja AALI Kinerja AALI sangat bergantung kepada harga CPO di pasar. Kami mengamati bahwa saat ini harga CPO berada pada level terendah sejak 2016 sehingga potensi penurunan harga CPO menjadi lebih terbatas. Selain itu, kondisi saat ini juga ditopang oleh penurunan inventori CPO di Malaysia yang diikuti oleh penurunan produksi. Stabilnya permintaan CPO akan mendorong rebound harga CPO dan menopang kinerja AALI ke depannya.
1Q17 menjadi Rp4,44 pada 1Q18. Namun, laba bersih turun hingga 55% dari Rp801 miliar pada 1Q17 menjadi Rp355 pada 1Q18. Hal ini disebabkan penurunan margin laba kotor dari 31% pada 1Q17 menjadi 17% pada 1Q18. Porsi beban produksi tidak mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan dan hanya meningkat dari 76% terhadap penjualan pada 1Q17 menjadi 78% pada 1Q18. Penurunan laba bersih lebih disebabkan oleh meningkatnya porsi beban pokok atas persediaan barang jadi sebesar 12% terhadap penjualan.
Abs. Ret. -8.7% -12.7% -10.3% -18.1% Rel. Ret. -0.6% -5.8% 1.2% -20.7%
Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Company Report | May 17, 2018 Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) Berharap pada Potensi Rebound Harga CPO Buy Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 14,800 Consensus Price (IDR) 15,438 TP to Consensus Price -4.13% vs. Last Price +23.33% Shares data
12M
3M
1M
Share Price Performance YTD
Astra Agro Lestari Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
Agriculture Crude Palm Oil Bloomberg AALI.IJ Reuters AALI.JK Joni Wintarja
16.15 Foreign Ownership 5.3%
1.17 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)
20.3 Outstanding sh.(mn) 1,925 Market Cap (IDR bn) 23,240 Market Cap (USD mn) 1,656 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)
Last Price (IDR) 12,000 Price date as of May 15, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 15,500/11,700 Free float (%)
Dividend yield 2.8% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2%
Sekilas tentang AALI AALI yang awalnya merupakan gabungan dari beberapa perusahaan memulai mengembangkan industri perkebunan di Indonesia sejak 1988. Saat ini, AALI yang memiliki manajemen merupakan salah satu perusahaan perkebunan kelapa sawit terbesar di Indonesia. Pada akhir 2016, AALI mengelola perkebunan kelapa sawit dengan luas area yang mencapai 297.011 hektare dan tersebar di Pulau Sumatera, Kalimantan, dan Sulawesi.
AALI tidak hanya mengelola lahan perkebunan sawit, tetapi juga mengembangkan industri hilir sebagai upaya menjaga keberlangsungan usaha. Upaya ini diwujudkan melalui pengoperasian pabrik pengolahan minyak (refinery) di Kabupaten Mamuju Utara, Provinsi Sulawesi Barat; dan Dumai, Provinsi Riau. Pada 2016, AALI mengoperasikan pabrik pencampuran pupuk di Kabupaten Donggala, Provinsi Sulawesi Tengah, dan mengembangkan usaha integrasi sawit-sapi di Kabupaten Kotawaringin Barat, Provinsi Kalimantan Tengah.
Industri CPO di ASEAN Indonesia yang memiliki kapasitas produksi kelapa sawit sebesar 38,5 juta ton menjadikannya penghasil kelapa sawit terbesar di dunia. Malaysia menduduki peringkat ke dua dengan kapasitas produksi kelapa sawit sebesar 20,5 juta ton. Kedua negara tersebut menguasai hampir 84% total produksi kelapa sawit dunia. Kemudian, Thailand menempati peringkat ke tiga dengan produksi kelapa sawit sebesar 2,7 juta ton.
Dibandingkan dengan kompetitornya di ASEAN, AALI memiliki imbal hasil dividen terbesar ketiga setelah LSIP dan Golden Agri, yaitu sebesar 3,8%. Faktor fundamental yang dimiliki oleh AALI, seperti ROE di atas 10%, dan valuasi yang sangat rendah sebesar 11,9x menjadikannya sebagai pilihan saham yang sangat menarik di ASEAN.
ASEAN CPO Plantation Company Market Cap Total Asset Net Profit Net Profit Dividend Company ROE P/E P/BV (USD mn) (USD mn) Growth Margin Yield
AALI 1,656 1,835 -3.3% 10.1% 10.2% 11.9x 1.2x 3.8% LSIP 542 717 -16.0% 15.8% 7.7% 11.7x 0.9x 4.1%
Malaysia
Genting Plantations Bhd 2,066 2,085 -3.3% 18.7% 7.7% 23.1x 1.9x 1.3% Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd 6,914 4,619 -16.6% 4.8% 8.5% 28.0x 2.3x 2.0%
IOI Corp Bhd 7,711 4,193 99.6% 5.3% 20.8% 20.3x 4.7x 2.0%
Singapore
Wilmar International Ltd 15,308 40,933 25.4% 2.8% 8.0% 12.5x 1.0x 2.2% Golden Agri-Resources Ltd 3,489 8,138 -81.5% 1.0% 1.8% 48.1x 0.9x 3.9% First Resources Ltd 2,085 1,731 9.8% 21.3% 14.9% 15.1x 2.1x 2.1%
Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
Source: Company, NHKS research
CPO Sales Trend | 2014 - 2018 Performance Highlights
Source: MPOB, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
Malaysia Palm Oil Inventory (000’ tons) | 2016-2018
Source: MPOB, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
Malaysia Palm Oil Production Data (000’ tons) | 2016-2018
Source: Bloomberg, NHKS Research
CPO CIF Rotterdam (IDR/kg) | 2014-2018
Source: Company, NHKS research
AALI Sales Trend | 2013 - 2018
Source: Company, NHKS research
AALI Gross Profit Margin | 2014 - 2018
Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 2 years Dynamic Forward P/E band | Last 2 years
Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research
Rating and target price update Target Price Revision
Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus
01/03/2018 Hold 14,425 (Dec 2018) 13,275 16,932 +8.7% -14.8% 03/09/2018 Buy 18,375 (Dec 2018) 14,750 15,955 +24.6% +15.2% 05/17/2018 Buy 14,800 (Dec 2018) 12,000 15,438 +23.3% -4.1%
Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg
Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price
Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings
Period: End of year target price Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication
Buy : Greater than +15% Hold : -15% to +15% Sell : Less than -15%
INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET CASH FLOW STATEMENT
79.7 EVA Uni ted Sta tes
Ca pex (2,285) (1,663) (1,799) (2,010)
CFI (2,395) (1,754) (1,751) (1,963) (Unl evered) FCFF 617 1,279 1,152 1,529 Di vi dends Pa i d (191) (997) (955) (874) WACC
Net Borrowi ng (PMT) (3,450) (607) - (300) Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.) 9.9% 6.1% 6.8% 6.8%
CFF 269 (1,273) (961) (1,182) Cos t of Equi ty (COE) 9.5% 8.6% 9.7% 9.7%
Net Changes in Cash 237 (269)56 199 WACC (%) 9.6% 8.1% 9.2% 9.2% RIM Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%) 7.6% 2.9% 0.8% 1.2% Res i dua l Income (IDR) 891 504 149 240
By Geography % Shareholders % Equi ty Cha rge 1,116 1,506 1,794 1,905 Indones i a
94.68 As tra Interna ti ona l ,Tbk
4.22 Sun Li fe Fi na nci a l
Summary of Financials
DISCLAIMER
1.4 Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn) 21,695 22,506 23,702 24,666 Luxembourg
0.34 Di mens i ona l Fund
0.7 ROIC-WACC (%) -0.4% 0.8% -1.0% -0.6% Fi nl a nd
0.21 Va ngua rd Group
0.7 EVA (IDR bn) (76) 181 (236) (136) OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY
VALUATION INDEX DCF, RIM & EVA Analyst: Joni Wintarja May 15, 2018
NOPAT 2,545 2,194 2,127 2,341
Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l (713) (442) (459) (194) +Depr./Amor. 1,070 1,189 1,284 1,392
23.1 In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Ca s h 532 262 319 518 Pri ce /Ea rni ngs 16.1x 12.6x 11.9x 10.8x
Recei va bl es 527 548 420 463 Pri ce /Book Va l ue 1.8x 1.4x 1.2x 1.1x
Inventori es 2,097 2,018 2,229 2,497 Pri ce/Sa l es 2.3x 1.5x 1.2x 1.1x
Total Current Assets 4,052 4,246 5,068 5,502 PE/EPS Growth 0.1x 75.2x -3.6x 1.0x
Pl a nta ti ons 6,675 6,747 7,136 7,569 EV/EBITDA 9.7x 6.9x 6.4x 5.7x
Fi xed As s ets 10,028 10,152 10,281 10,466 EV/EBIT 13.7x 9.7x 9.1x 8.1x
Other Non Current As s ets 3,472 3,790 3,899 3,845 EV (IDR bn) 36,314 29,454 27,252 26,746
Total Assets 24,226 24,935 26,385 27,381 Sa l es CAGR (3-Yr) 3.7% 2.0% 13.8% 14.5%
Pa ya bl es 940 833 1,036 1,094 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) 3.7% -7.1% 46.4% 2.2%
ST Ba nk Loa n 400 600 600 300 Ba s i c EPS (IDR) 1,043 1,044 1,010 1,115
Curr Ma turi ti es of LT Debt 1,585 - - - Di l uted EPS (IDR) 1,043 1,044 1,010 1,115
LT Debt 2,116 3,369 3,422 3,422 BVPS (IDR) 9,141 9,631 10,225 10,882
Other Non Current Li a b. 574 720 734 727 Sa l es PS (IDR) 7,337 8,991 10,009 11,019
Total Liabilities 6,633 6,399 6,704 6,438 DPS (IDR) 469 448 454 502
Shareholders' Equity 17,593 18,536 19,680 20,944In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Net Income 2,007 2,010 1,943 2,145 DCF (IDR bn) Deprec & Amorti za ti on 1,070 1,189 1,284 1,39223.1
25.3
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errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Securities IndonesiaAALI Summary Last Price (IDR) 12,000 Target Price (IDR) Dec 2018 14,800 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E Rating: Buy ROE 13.7% 11.1% 10.2% 10.6%
ROA 8.8% 8.2% 7.6% 8.0% ROIC 9.3% 8.9% 8.2% 8.7% EBITDA/Equi ty 25.5% 23.5% 22.4% 23.1%
In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E EBITDA/As s ets 16.3% 17.2% 16.7% 17.5%
Sales 14,121 17,306 19,264 21,209 Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn) 903 863 874 965
Growth (% y/y) 8.1% 22.5% 11.3% 10.1% Di vi dend Yi el d (%) 2.8% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2%
COGS (10,445) (13,160) (15,037) (16,555) Pa yout Ra ti o (%) 45.0% 42.9% 45.0% 45.0%
Gross Profit 3,676 4,145 4,227 4,654 DER 23.3% 21.4% 20.4% 17.8%
Gross Margin 26.0% 24.0% 21.9% 21.9% Net Gea ri ng 30.9% 27.9% 26.2% 22.4%
Opera ti ng Expens es (1,017) (1,094) (1,224) (1,348) LT Debt to Equi ty 21.0% 18.2% 17.4% 16.3%
EBIT 2,659 3,051 3,003 3,306 Ca pi ta l i za ti on Ra ti o 18.9% 17.6% 17.0% 15.1%
EBIT Margin 18.8% 17.6% 15.6% 15.6% Equi ty Ra ti o 72.6% 74.3% 74.6% 76.5%
Depreci a ti on 1,070 1,189 1,284 1,392 Debt Ra ti o 16.9% 15.9% 15.2% 13.6%
EBITDA 3,728 4,240 4,287 4,698 Fi na nci a l Levera ge 156.1% 136.1% 134.3% 132.4%
EBITDA Margin 26.4% 24.5% 22.3% 22.2% Current Ra ti o 102.8% 183.8% 198.9% 240.4%
Interes t Expens e (145) (94) (146) (152) Qui ck Ra ti o 26.9% 35.1% 29.0% 42.8%
EBT 2,209 2,939 2,896 3,197 Ca s h Ra ti o 13.5% 11.4% 12.5% 22.6%
Income Ta x (94) (825) (845) (933) Ca s h Convers i on Cycl e54.1
44.4
36.9
38.9 Mi nori ty Interes t (107) (103) (108) (119) Pa r Va l ue (IDR) 500 500 500 500
Net Profit 2,007 2,010 1,943 2,145 Tota l Sha res (mn) 1,925 1,925 1,925 1,925
Growth (% y/y) 224.2% 0.2% -3.3% 10.4% Sha re Pri ce (IDR) 16,775 13,150 12,000 12,000
Net Profit Margin 14.2% 11.6% 10.1% 10.1% Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn)32.3
CFO 2,364 2,757 2,768 3,343 -CAPEX (2,285) (1,663) (1,799) (2,010)
- Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p. (713) (442) (459) (194)