Kointegrasi Harga Jagung Pipil Impor, Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera Utara Dan Kabupaten Karo
Lampiran 1a. Harga Jagung Pipil Impor (U$/Ton) dalam Nilai Nominal
TAHUN
2009
JAN
1801
FEB
1613
MAR
1686
APRIL
1687
MEI
1851
JUNI
1892
JULI
1803
AGS
2055
SEP
1861
OKT
1843
NOV
1907
D
1
2010
2011
2012
0
2434
2545
2118
2114
2125
2177
2175
2164
2161
0
2147
2596
2830
2901
2935
2948
2972
2756
2411
0
2560
2630
2580
2658
2553
2842
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sumatera Utara, 2013.
0
2952
2888
2532
2729
2904
2
2
2
NOV
2377
2565
2893
2963
D
2
2
2
2
NOV
1700
2100
2400
2600
D
1
2
2
2
Lampiran1b. Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera Utara (Rp/Kg) dalam Nilai
Nominal
TAHUN
2009
2010
2011
2012
JAN
2493
2793
2614
2160
FEB
MAR APRIL MEI
JUNI
JULI
AGS
2463
2458
2396
2582
2617
2641
2388
2770
2653
2625
2653
2615
2588
2495
2420
3146
3133
3093
2726
2794
2917
2193
1872
1953
2391
2165
2059
2615
Sumber: Dinas Pertanian Provinsi Sumatera Utara, 2013.
SEP
2299
2555
3117
2625
OKT
2495
2565
2975
3075
Lampiran 1c. Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo (Rp/Kg) dalam Nilai
Nominal
TAHUN
2009
2010
2011
2012
JAN
1567
1800
2135
2056
FEB
MAR APRIL MEI
JUNI
JULI
1595
1737
1800
1800
1908
2150
1980
2106
2352
2260
2075
1970
2480
2610
2600
2568
2260
2300
2095
1900
3500
3475
3010
2808
Sumber: Dinas Pertanian Kabupaten Karo, 2013.
AGS
1878
1900
2230
3000
SEP
1700
1860
2280
3565
OKT
1705
2120
2380
3000
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2a. Harga Jagung Pipil Impor (Rp/Kg) dalam Nilai Riil
AHUN
JAN
FEB
MAR APRIL
MEI
JUNI
1582.88 1414.66 1475.45 1480.86 1624.11 1658.19
2009
0
1789.46 1788.65 1795.22 1833.88 1814.62
2010
1927.31 1697.77 2059.5 2252.11 2305.86 2320.16
2011
1944.23 1841.02
0
1949.44 2001.37 1951.15
2012
AHUN
2009
2010
2011
2012
AHUN
2009
2010
2011
2012
AHUN
2009
2010
2011
2012
JULI
1573.16
1777.56
2314.88
1996.09
AGS
SEP
OKT
NOV
1783.08 1611.81 1579.53 1634.8 1
1761.64
0
0
2041.44 2
2312.12 2138.26 2292.99 2112.56 1
1899.13 2113.8 2144.5 2154.94
Lampiran 2b. Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera Utara (Rp/Kg) dalam Nilai Riil
JAN
2191.07
2366.75
2069.84
1650.11
FEB
2160.15
2340.32
1913.65
1674.56
MAR
2151.05
2244.69
2495.83
1428.46
APRIL
MEI
JUNI
JULI
AGS
SEP
OKT
NOV
2103.23 2265.51 2293.6 2304.34 2072.02 1991.17 2138.33 2037.72 1
2217.62 2234.86 2181.71 2125.84 2033.91 2073.7 2080.46 2068.05 2
2493.24 2458.47 2154.94 2193.95 2269.33 2418.34 2310.86 2239.51 1
1487.21 1819.5 1637.3 1546.26 1945.25 1952.4 2283.36 2198.72 2
Lampiran 2c. Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo (Rp/Kg) dalam Nilai Riil
JAN
1377.22
1525.29
1690.55
1570.66
FEB
1398.88
1672.86
1961.09
1599.73
MAR
1520.08
1781.88
2070.61
1449.83
APRIL
MEI
JUNI
JULI
AGS
1580.06 1579.36 1672.22 1875.93 1629.5
1986.99 1903.8 1731.19 1618.2 1548.87
2069.08 2041.17 1786.56 1806.05 1734.87
2665.25 2644.4 2276.34 2108.74 2231.64
SEP
1472.37
1509.62
1768.95
2651.54
OKT
1461.26
1719.52
1848.69
2227.67
NOV
1457.35 1
1693.14 1
1857.87
1929.36 1
Lampiran 3. Harga Jagung Pipil Impor (Rp/Kg) dalam Nilai Riil yang telah
di Smoothing
JAN
1582.88
1898.28
1927.31
1944.23
FEB
MAR APRIL
MEI
JUNI
1414.66 1475.45 1480.86 1624.11 1658.19
1789.46 1788.65 1795.22 1833.88 1814.62
1697.77 2059.5 2252.11 2305.86 2320.16
1841.02 1898.28 1949.44 2001.37 1951.15
JULI
1573.16
1777.56
2314.88
1996.09
AGS
SEP
OKT
NOV
1783.08 1611.81 1579.53 1634.8 1
1761.64 1898.28 1898.28 2041.44 2
2312.12 2138.26 2292.99 2112.56 1
1899.13 2113.8 2144.5 2154.94
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4. Indeks Harga Konsumen di Indonesia
TAHUN
2009
2010
2011
2012
JAN
113.78
118.01
126.29
130.9
FEB
MAR APRIL MEI
JUNI
114.02 114.27 113.92 113.97
114.1
118.36 118.19 118.37 118.71 119.86
126.46 126.05 125.66 125.81
126.5
130.96 131.05 131.32 131.41 132.23
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik, 2013.
JULI
114.61
121.74
127.35
133.16
AGS
115.25
122.67
128.54
134.43
SEP
115.46
123.21
128.89
134.45
OKT
116.68
123.29
128.74
134.67
NOV
116.65
124.03
129.18
134.76
Lampiran 5. Perkembangan Jumlah Produksi Jagung Pipil, Harga
Ekspor Jagung Pipil ( Harga Internasional ) dan Harga Jagung
Pipil
Sumatera Utara (Harga Domestik) 2002 -2010
Tahun
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Produksi (kg)
640.590.000
687.360.000
712.560.000
735.450.000
682.020.000
804.850.000
1.098.969.000
1.166.548.000
1.377.718.000
Harga Ekspor
(Harga Internasional)
(Rp/kg)
732
1.129
787
1.683
3.292
1.152
4.725
4.347
4.880
Harga Sumatera Utara
(Harga Domestik)
(Rp/kg)
1.088
1.024
1.175
1.348
1.360
1.722
2.245
2.605
2.797
Sumber: Badan Ketahanan Pangan Provinsi Sumatera Utara dan Badan
Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sumatera Utara, 2011.
Universitas Sumatera Utara
D
11
12
12
13
Lampiran 6a. Hasil Uji Akar Unit Harga Jagung Pipil Impor I(0).
Null Hypothesis: HARGAIMPOR has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=12)
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-1.896735
-3.577723
-2.925169
-2.600658
0.3310
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(HARGAIMPOR)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/28/13 Time: 06:41
Sample (adjusted): 2009M02 2012M12
Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
HARGAIMPOR(-1)
C
-0.134235
264.8848
0.070772
135.1383
-1.896735
1.960101
0.0643
0.0562
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.074028
0.053451
116.2695
608336.5
-289.1960
3.597602
0.064293
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
10.58979
119.5072
12.39132
12.47005
12.42095
2.121964
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6b. Hasil Uji Akar Unit Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera Utara I(0).
Null Hypothesis: HARGASUMUT has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=12)
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-2.840481
-3.577723
-2.925169
-2.600658
0.0604
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(HARGASUMUT)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/28/13 Time: 06:43
Sample (adjusted): 2009M02 2012M12
Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
HARGASUMUT(-1)
C
-0.303838
632.6135
0.106967
224.5049
-2.840481
2.817816
0.0067
0.0072
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.152037
0.133193
191.1374
1644007.
-312.5588
8.068333
0.006742
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
-0.151915
205.2978
13.38548
13.46421
13.41511
2.008168
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6c. Hasil Uji Akar Unit Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo I(0).
Null Hypothesis: HARGAKARO has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=12)
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-2.478260
-3.577723
-2.925169
-2.600658
0.1271
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(HARGAKARO)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/28/13 Time: 06:45
Sample (adjusted): 2009M02 2012M12
Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
HARGAKARO(-1)
C
-0.218640
507.6163
0.088223
202.3529
-2.478260
2.508569
0.0170
0.0158
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.120093
0.100540
296.5302
3956856.
-333.1992
6.141774
0.017020
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
17.72340
312.6640
14.26380
14.34253
14.29342
1.847667
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6d. Hasil Uji Akar Unit Harga Jagung Pipil Impor I(1).
Null Hypothesis: D(HARGAIMPOR) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=12)
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-7.948699
-3.581152
-2.926622
-2.601424
0.0000
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(HARGAIMPOR,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/28/13 Time: 06:46
Sample (adjusted): 2009M03 2012M12
Included observations: 46 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(HARGAIMPOR(-1))
C
-1.159161
16.45629
0.145830
17.42437
-7.948699
0.944441
0.0000
0.3501
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.589483
0.580153
117.5360
607847.2
-283.5190
63.18182
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
2.040870
181.3949
12.41387
12.49338
12.44365
1.991853
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6e. Hasil Uji Akar Unit Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera Utara I(1).
Null Hypothesis: D(HARGASUMUT) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=12)
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-7.773677
-3.581152
-2.926622
-2.601424
0.0000
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(HARGASUMUT,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/28/13 Time: 06:48
Sample (adjusted): 2009M03 2012M12
Included observations: 46 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(HARGASUMUT(-1))
C
-1.157138
0.543089
0.148853
30.55755
-7.773677
0.017773
0.0000
0.9859
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.578665
0.569090
207.2513
1889937.
-309.6097
60.43005
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
0.350652
315.7212
13.54825
13.62775
13.57803
2.057480
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6f. Hasil Uji Akar Unit Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo I(1).
Null Hypothesis: D(HARGAKARO) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 9 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=12)
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-3.693256
-3.621023
-2.943427
-2.610263
0.0083
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(HARGAKARO,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/28/13 Time: 06:49
Sample (adjusted): 2009M12 2012M12
Included observations: 37 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(HARGAKARO(-1))
D(HARGAKARO(-1),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-2),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-3),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-4),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-5),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-6),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-7),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-8),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-9),2)
C
-5.027180
3.851395
3.269157
2.850141
2.472424
2.349750
1.717985
1.393014
0.885762
0.973198
147.1030
1.361178
1.286800
1.198570
1.116548
1.008458
0.870727
0.741446
0.643037
0.539661
0.408543
62.78101
-3.693256
2.993003
2.727547
2.552637
2.451689
2.698608
2.317073
2.166305
1.641332
2.382120
2.343113
0.0010
0.0060
0.0113
0.0169
0.0212
0.0121
0.0286
0.0396
0.1128
0.0248
0.0270
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.727185
0.622256
302.3420
2376678.
-257.3012
6.930258
0.000034
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
-5.270270
491.9258
14.50277
14.98169
14.67161
2.060487
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 7a. Hasil Uji Kointegrasi Harga Jagung Pipil Impor dengan Harga
Jagung Pipil Sumatera Utara.
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend (restricted)
Series: DIF_HARGASUMUT DIF_HARGAIMPOR
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Trace
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
At most 1 *
0.542768
0.393564
57.72239
22.50699
25.87211
12.51798
0.0000
0.0008
Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Max-Eigen
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
At most 1 *
0.542768
0.393564
35.21540
22.50699
19.38704
12.51798
0.0001
0.0008
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
DIF_HARGASUMUT DIF_HARGAIMPOR @TREND(09M02)
0.008402
-0.011104
-0.013478
0.002320
0.010482
0.006649
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(DIF_HARGASUM
UT)
D(DIF_HARGAIMP
OR)
-143.8102
-117.5963
45.61483
-84.55652
1 Cointegrating Equation(s):
Log likelihood
-584.5377
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
DIF_HARGASUMUT DIF_HARGAIMPOR @TREND(09M02)
1.000000
-1.321666
-1.604201
(0.22317)
(1.31834)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(DIF_HARGASUM
UT)
-1.208231
(0.30081)
D(DIF_HARGAIMP
OR)
0.383236
(0.18519)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 7b. Hasil Uji Kointegrasi Harga Jagung Pipil Impor dengan
Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo.
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend (restricted)
Series: DIF_HARGAKARO DIF_HARGAIMPOR
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Trace
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
At most 1 *
0.484915
0.412255
53.76985
23.91576
25.87211
12.51798
0.0000
0.0004
Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Max-Eigen
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
At most 1 *
0.484915
0.412255
29.85409
23.91576
19.38704
12.51798
0.0011
0.0004
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
DIF_HARGAKARO DIF_HARGAIMPOR @TREND(09M02)
-0.004759
0.001713
-0.001950
-0.000315
0.013402
0.010316
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(DIF_HARGAKAR
O)
D(DIF_HARGAIMP
OR)
278.1790
-69.52703
-22.01226
-90.26813
1 Cointegrating Equation(s):
Log likelihood
-607.5596
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
DIF_HARGAKARO DIF_HARGAIMPOR @TREND(09M02)
1.000000
-0.360000
0.409828
(0.44908)
(2.61676)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(DIF_HARGAKAR
O)
-1.323940
(0.22779)
D(DIF_HARGAIMP
OR)
0.104763
(0.10585)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 7c. Hasil Uji Kointegrasi Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera Utara
dengan Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo.
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend (restricted)
Series: DIF_HARGAKARO DIF_HARGASUMUT
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Trace
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
At most 1 *
0.473188
0.428599
54.02594
25.18490
25.87211
12.51798
0.0000
0.0002
Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Max-Eigen
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
At most 1 *
0.473188
0.428599
28.84105
25.18490
19.38704
12.51798
0.0016
0.0002
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
DIF_HARGAKARO DIF_HARGASUMUT @TREND(09M02)
0.003068
0.004436
-0.000179
-0.003907
0.006684
-0.007895
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(DIF_HARGAKAR
O)
D(DIF_HARGASUM
UT)
-242.0932
140.2972
-114.4914
-125.2014
1 Cointegrating Equation(s):
Log likelihood
-632.6841
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
DIF_HARGAKARO DIF_HARGASUMUT @TREND(09M02)
1.000000
1.446078
-0.058332
(0.40916)
(4.14914)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(DIF_HARGAKAR
O)
-0.742668
(0.15974)
D(DIF_HARGASUM
UT)
-0.351225
(0.10837)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 8a. Hasil Error Correction Model Harga Jagung Pipil Impor
Dan Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera Utara .
Dependent Variable: DIF_HARGASUMUT
Method: Least Squares
Sample (adjusted): 2009M02 2012M12
Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
DIF_HARGAIMPOR
RESID01
C
5.172943
-5.172943
-54.93228
2.47E-15
2.53E-15
4.54E-14
2.09E+15
-2.05E+15
-1.21E+15
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
1.000000
1.000000
3.20E-13
9.49E+30
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
-0.151915
205.2978
4.49E-24
2.537087
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 8b. Hasil Error Correction Model Harga Jagung Pipil Impor
Dan Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo.
Dependent Variable: DIF_HARGAKARO
Method: Least Squares
Sample (adjusted): 2009M02 2012M12
Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
DIF_HARGAIMPOR
RESID01
C
1.326487
-1.296956
3.676190
0.880382
0.932057
44.36252
1.506718
-1.391499
0.082867
0.1390
0.1711
0.9343
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.028463
-0.015698
315.1085
4368909.
-335.5272
0.644525
0.529795
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
17.72340
312.6640
14.40541
14.52351
14.44985
2.104056
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 8c. Hasil Error Correction Model Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera
Utara Dan Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo.
Dependent Variable: DIF_HARGAKARO
Method: Least Squares
Sample (adjusted): 2009M02 2012M12
Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
DIF_HARGASUMUT
RESID01
C
0.256428
0.029531
17.76236
0.170190
0.298155
45.97030
1.506718
0.099044
0.386388
0.1390
0.9216
0.7011
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.028463
-0.015698
315.1085
4368909.
-335.5272
0.644525
0.529795
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
17.72340
312.6640
14.40541
14.52351
14.44985
2.104056
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 9. Hasil Korelasi antara Harga Ekspor Jagung Pipil (Harga
Internasional) dengan Produksi
Jagung Pipil Sumatera
Utara
Correlations
Descriptive Statistics
Mean
produksi
hargaekspor
Std. Deviation
N
87850.4444
26593.07132
9
2525.2222
1770.32481
9
Correlations
produksi
produksi
Pearson Correlation
hargaekspor
1
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
hargaekspor
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
.860**
.003
9
9
.860**
1
.003
9
9
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 10. Hasil
Korelasi antara
Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera
Utara (Harga Domestik) dengan Produksi
Jagung Pipil
Sumatera Utara
Correlations
Descriptive Statistics
Mean
produksi
hargasumut
Std. Deviation
N
87850.4444
26593.07132
9
1707.1111
676.95429
9
Correlations
produksi
produksi
Pearson Correlation
hargasumut
1
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
hargasumut
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
.976**
.000
9
9
.976**
1
.000
9
9
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Universitas Sumatera Utara
TAHUN
2009
JAN
1801
FEB
1613
MAR
1686
APRIL
1687
MEI
1851
JUNI
1892
JULI
1803
AGS
2055
SEP
1861
OKT
1843
NOV
1907
D
1
2010
2011
2012
0
2434
2545
2118
2114
2125
2177
2175
2164
2161
0
2147
2596
2830
2901
2935
2948
2972
2756
2411
0
2560
2630
2580
2658
2553
2842
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sumatera Utara, 2013.
0
2952
2888
2532
2729
2904
2
2
2
NOV
2377
2565
2893
2963
D
2
2
2
2
NOV
1700
2100
2400
2600
D
1
2
2
2
Lampiran1b. Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera Utara (Rp/Kg) dalam Nilai
Nominal
TAHUN
2009
2010
2011
2012
JAN
2493
2793
2614
2160
FEB
MAR APRIL MEI
JUNI
JULI
AGS
2463
2458
2396
2582
2617
2641
2388
2770
2653
2625
2653
2615
2588
2495
2420
3146
3133
3093
2726
2794
2917
2193
1872
1953
2391
2165
2059
2615
Sumber: Dinas Pertanian Provinsi Sumatera Utara, 2013.
SEP
2299
2555
3117
2625
OKT
2495
2565
2975
3075
Lampiran 1c. Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo (Rp/Kg) dalam Nilai
Nominal
TAHUN
2009
2010
2011
2012
JAN
1567
1800
2135
2056
FEB
MAR APRIL MEI
JUNI
JULI
1595
1737
1800
1800
1908
2150
1980
2106
2352
2260
2075
1970
2480
2610
2600
2568
2260
2300
2095
1900
3500
3475
3010
2808
Sumber: Dinas Pertanian Kabupaten Karo, 2013.
AGS
1878
1900
2230
3000
SEP
1700
1860
2280
3565
OKT
1705
2120
2380
3000
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2a. Harga Jagung Pipil Impor (Rp/Kg) dalam Nilai Riil
AHUN
JAN
FEB
MAR APRIL
MEI
JUNI
1582.88 1414.66 1475.45 1480.86 1624.11 1658.19
2009
0
1789.46 1788.65 1795.22 1833.88 1814.62
2010
1927.31 1697.77 2059.5 2252.11 2305.86 2320.16
2011
1944.23 1841.02
0
1949.44 2001.37 1951.15
2012
AHUN
2009
2010
2011
2012
AHUN
2009
2010
2011
2012
AHUN
2009
2010
2011
2012
JULI
1573.16
1777.56
2314.88
1996.09
AGS
SEP
OKT
NOV
1783.08 1611.81 1579.53 1634.8 1
1761.64
0
0
2041.44 2
2312.12 2138.26 2292.99 2112.56 1
1899.13 2113.8 2144.5 2154.94
Lampiran 2b. Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera Utara (Rp/Kg) dalam Nilai Riil
JAN
2191.07
2366.75
2069.84
1650.11
FEB
2160.15
2340.32
1913.65
1674.56
MAR
2151.05
2244.69
2495.83
1428.46
APRIL
MEI
JUNI
JULI
AGS
SEP
OKT
NOV
2103.23 2265.51 2293.6 2304.34 2072.02 1991.17 2138.33 2037.72 1
2217.62 2234.86 2181.71 2125.84 2033.91 2073.7 2080.46 2068.05 2
2493.24 2458.47 2154.94 2193.95 2269.33 2418.34 2310.86 2239.51 1
1487.21 1819.5 1637.3 1546.26 1945.25 1952.4 2283.36 2198.72 2
Lampiran 2c. Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo (Rp/Kg) dalam Nilai Riil
JAN
1377.22
1525.29
1690.55
1570.66
FEB
1398.88
1672.86
1961.09
1599.73
MAR
1520.08
1781.88
2070.61
1449.83
APRIL
MEI
JUNI
JULI
AGS
1580.06 1579.36 1672.22 1875.93 1629.5
1986.99 1903.8 1731.19 1618.2 1548.87
2069.08 2041.17 1786.56 1806.05 1734.87
2665.25 2644.4 2276.34 2108.74 2231.64
SEP
1472.37
1509.62
1768.95
2651.54
OKT
1461.26
1719.52
1848.69
2227.67
NOV
1457.35 1
1693.14 1
1857.87
1929.36 1
Lampiran 3. Harga Jagung Pipil Impor (Rp/Kg) dalam Nilai Riil yang telah
di Smoothing
JAN
1582.88
1898.28
1927.31
1944.23
FEB
MAR APRIL
MEI
JUNI
1414.66 1475.45 1480.86 1624.11 1658.19
1789.46 1788.65 1795.22 1833.88 1814.62
1697.77 2059.5 2252.11 2305.86 2320.16
1841.02 1898.28 1949.44 2001.37 1951.15
JULI
1573.16
1777.56
2314.88
1996.09
AGS
SEP
OKT
NOV
1783.08 1611.81 1579.53 1634.8 1
1761.64 1898.28 1898.28 2041.44 2
2312.12 2138.26 2292.99 2112.56 1
1899.13 2113.8 2144.5 2154.94
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4. Indeks Harga Konsumen di Indonesia
TAHUN
2009
2010
2011
2012
JAN
113.78
118.01
126.29
130.9
FEB
MAR APRIL MEI
JUNI
114.02 114.27 113.92 113.97
114.1
118.36 118.19 118.37 118.71 119.86
126.46 126.05 125.66 125.81
126.5
130.96 131.05 131.32 131.41 132.23
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik, 2013.
JULI
114.61
121.74
127.35
133.16
AGS
115.25
122.67
128.54
134.43
SEP
115.46
123.21
128.89
134.45
OKT
116.68
123.29
128.74
134.67
NOV
116.65
124.03
129.18
134.76
Lampiran 5. Perkembangan Jumlah Produksi Jagung Pipil, Harga
Ekspor Jagung Pipil ( Harga Internasional ) dan Harga Jagung
Pipil
Sumatera Utara (Harga Domestik) 2002 -2010
Tahun
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Produksi (kg)
640.590.000
687.360.000
712.560.000
735.450.000
682.020.000
804.850.000
1.098.969.000
1.166.548.000
1.377.718.000
Harga Ekspor
(Harga Internasional)
(Rp/kg)
732
1.129
787
1.683
3.292
1.152
4.725
4.347
4.880
Harga Sumatera Utara
(Harga Domestik)
(Rp/kg)
1.088
1.024
1.175
1.348
1.360
1.722
2.245
2.605
2.797
Sumber: Badan Ketahanan Pangan Provinsi Sumatera Utara dan Badan
Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sumatera Utara, 2011.
Universitas Sumatera Utara
D
11
12
12
13
Lampiran 6a. Hasil Uji Akar Unit Harga Jagung Pipil Impor I(0).
Null Hypothesis: HARGAIMPOR has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=12)
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-1.896735
-3.577723
-2.925169
-2.600658
0.3310
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(HARGAIMPOR)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/28/13 Time: 06:41
Sample (adjusted): 2009M02 2012M12
Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
HARGAIMPOR(-1)
C
-0.134235
264.8848
0.070772
135.1383
-1.896735
1.960101
0.0643
0.0562
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.074028
0.053451
116.2695
608336.5
-289.1960
3.597602
0.064293
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
10.58979
119.5072
12.39132
12.47005
12.42095
2.121964
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6b. Hasil Uji Akar Unit Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera Utara I(0).
Null Hypothesis: HARGASUMUT has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=12)
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-2.840481
-3.577723
-2.925169
-2.600658
0.0604
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(HARGASUMUT)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/28/13 Time: 06:43
Sample (adjusted): 2009M02 2012M12
Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
HARGASUMUT(-1)
C
-0.303838
632.6135
0.106967
224.5049
-2.840481
2.817816
0.0067
0.0072
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.152037
0.133193
191.1374
1644007.
-312.5588
8.068333
0.006742
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
-0.151915
205.2978
13.38548
13.46421
13.41511
2.008168
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6c. Hasil Uji Akar Unit Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo I(0).
Null Hypothesis: HARGAKARO has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=12)
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-2.478260
-3.577723
-2.925169
-2.600658
0.1271
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(HARGAKARO)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/28/13 Time: 06:45
Sample (adjusted): 2009M02 2012M12
Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
HARGAKARO(-1)
C
-0.218640
507.6163
0.088223
202.3529
-2.478260
2.508569
0.0170
0.0158
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.120093
0.100540
296.5302
3956856.
-333.1992
6.141774
0.017020
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
17.72340
312.6640
14.26380
14.34253
14.29342
1.847667
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6d. Hasil Uji Akar Unit Harga Jagung Pipil Impor I(1).
Null Hypothesis: D(HARGAIMPOR) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=12)
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-7.948699
-3.581152
-2.926622
-2.601424
0.0000
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(HARGAIMPOR,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/28/13 Time: 06:46
Sample (adjusted): 2009M03 2012M12
Included observations: 46 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(HARGAIMPOR(-1))
C
-1.159161
16.45629
0.145830
17.42437
-7.948699
0.944441
0.0000
0.3501
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.589483
0.580153
117.5360
607847.2
-283.5190
63.18182
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
2.040870
181.3949
12.41387
12.49338
12.44365
1.991853
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6e. Hasil Uji Akar Unit Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera Utara I(1).
Null Hypothesis: D(HARGASUMUT) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=12)
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-7.773677
-3.581152
-2.926622
-2.601424
0.0000
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(HARGASUMUT,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/28/13 Time: 06:48
Sample (adjusted): 2009M03 2012M12
Included observations: 46 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(HARGASUMUT(-1))
C
-1.157138
0.543089
0.148853
30.55755
-7.773677
0.017773
0.0000
0.9859
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.578665
0.569090
207.2513
1889937.
-309.6097
60.43005
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
0.350652
315.7212
13.54825
13.62775
13.57803
2.057480
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6f. Hasil Uji Akar Unit Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo I(1).
Null Hypothesis: D(HARGAKARO) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 9 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=12)
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
Test critical values:
1% level
5% level
10% level
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-3.693256
-3.621023
-2.943427
-2.610263
0.0083
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(HARGAKARO,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/28/13 Time: 06:49
Sample (adjusted): 2009M12 2012M12
Included observations: 37 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(HARGAKARO(-1))
D(HARGAKARO(-1),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-2),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-3),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-4),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-5),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-6),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-7),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-8),2)
D(HARGAKARO(-9),2)
C
-5.027180
3.851395
3.269157
2.850141
2.472424
2.349750
1.717985
1.393014
0.885762
0.973198
147.1030
1.361178
1.286800
1.198570
1.116548
1.008458
0.870727
0.741446
0.643037
0.539661
0.408543
62.78101
-3.693256
2.993003
2.727547
2.552637
2.451689
2.698608
2.317073
2.166305
1.641332
2.382120
2.343113
0.0010
0.0060
0.0113
0.0169
0.0212
0.0121
0.0286
0.0396
0.1128
0.0248
0.0270
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.727185
0.622256
302.3420
2376678.
-257.3012
6.930258
0.000034
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
-5.270270
491.9258
14.50277
14.98169
14.67161
2.060487
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 7a. Hasil Uji Kointegrasi Harga Jagung Pipil Impor dengan Harga
Jagung Pipil Sumatera Utara.
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend (restricted)
Series: DIF_HARGASUMUT DIF_HARGAIMPOR
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Trace
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
At most 1 *
0.542768
0.393564
57.72239
22.50699
25.87211
12.51798
0.0000
0.0008
Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Max-Eigen
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
At most 1 *
0.542768
0.393564
35.21540
22.50699
19.38704
12.51798
0.0001
0.0008
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
DIF_HARGASUMUT DIF_HARGAIMPOR @TREND(09M02)
0.008402
-0.011104
-0.013478
0.002320
0.010482
0.006649
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(DIF_HARGASUM
UT)
D(DIF_HARGAIMP
OR)
-143.8102
-117.5963
45.61483
-84.55652
1 Cointegrating Equation(s):
Log likelihood
-584.5377
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
DIF_HARGASUMUT DIF_HARGAIMPOR @TREND(09M02)
1.000000
-1.321666
-1.604201
(0.22317)
(1.31834)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(DIF_HARGASUM
UT)
-1.208231
(0.30081)
D(DIF_HARGAIMP
OR)
0.383236
(0.18519)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 7b. Hasil Uji Kointegrasi Harga Jagung Pipil Impor dengan
Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo.
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend (restricted)
Series: DIF_HARGAKARO DIF_HARGAIMPOR
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Trace
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
At most 1 *
0.484915
0.412255
53.76985
23.91576
25.87211
12.51798
0.0000
0.0004
Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Max-Eigen
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
At most 1 *
0.484915
0.412255
29.85409
23.91576
19.38704
12.51798
0.0011
0.0004
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
DIF_HARGAKARO DIF_HARGAIMPOR @TREND(09M02)
-0.004759
0.001713
-0.001950
-0.000315
0.013402
0.010316
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(DIF_HARGAKAR
O)
D(DIF_HARGAIMP
OR)
278.1790
-69.52703
-22.01226
-90.26813
1 Cointegrating Equation(s):
Log likelihood
-607.5596
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
DIF_HARGAKARO DIF_HARGAIMPOR @TREND(09M02)
1.000000
-0.360000
0.409828
(0.44908)
(2.61676)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(DIF_HARGAKAR
O)
-1.323940
(0.22779)
D(DIF_HARGAIMP
OR)
0.104763
(0.10585)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 7c. Hasil Uji Kointegrasi Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera Utara
dengan Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo.
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend (restricted)
Series: DIF_HARGAKARO DIF_HARGASUMUT
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Trace
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
At most 1 *
0.473188
0.428599
54.02594
25.18490
25.87211
12.51798
0.0000
0.0002
Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Max-Eigen
Statistic
0.05
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
At most 1 *
0.473188
0.428599
28.84105
25.18490
19.38704
12.51798
0.0016
0.0002
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
DIF_HARGAKARO DIF_HARGASUMUT @TREND(09M02)
0.003068
0.004436
-0.000179
-0.003907
0.006684
-0.007895
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(DIF_HARGAKAR
O)
D(DIF_HARGASUM
UT)
-242.0932
140.2972
-114.4914
-125.2014
1 Cointegrating Equation(s):
Log likelihood
-632.6841
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
DIF_HARGAKARO DIF_HARGASUMUT @TREND(09M02)
1.000000
1.446078
-0.058332
(0.40916)
(4.14914)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(DIF_HARGAKAR
O)
-0.742668
(0.15974)
D(DIF_HARGASUM
UT)
-0.351225
(0.10837)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 8a. Hasil Error Correction Model Harga Jagung Pipil Impor
Dan Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera Utara .
Dependent Variable: DIF_HARGASUMUT
Method: Least Squares
Sample (adjusted): 2009M02 2012M12
Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
DIF_HARGAIMPOR
RESID01
C
5.172943
-5.172943
-54.93228
2.47E-15
2.53E-15
4.54E-14
2.09E+15
-2.05E+15
-1.21E+15
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
1.000000
1.000000
3.20E-13
9.49E+30
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
-0.151915
205.2978
4.49E-24
2.537087
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 8b. Hasil Error Correction Model Harga Jagung Pipil Impor
Dan Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo.
Dependent Variable: DIF_HARGAKARO
Method: Least Squares
Sample (adjusted): 2009M02 2012M12
Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
DIF_HARGAIMPOR
RESID01
C
1.326487
-1.296956
3.676190
0.880382
0.932057
44.36252
1.506718
-1.391499
0.082867
0.1390
0.1711
0.9343
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.028463
-0.015698
315.1085
4368909.
-335.5272
0.644525
0.529795
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
17.72340
312.6640
14.40541
14.52351
14.44985
2.104056
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 8c. Hasil Error Correction Model Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera
Utara Dan Harga Jagung Pipil Kabupaten Karo.
Dependent Variable: DIF_HARGAKARO
Method: Least Squares
Sample (adjusted): 2009M02 2012M12
Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
DIF_HARGASUMUT
RESID01
C
0.256428
0.029531
17.76236
0.170190
0.298155
45.97030
1.506718
0.099044
0.386388
0.1390
0.9216
0.7011
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.028463
-0.015698
315.1085
4368909.
-335.5272
0.644525
0.529795
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
17.72340
312.6640
14.40541
14.52351
14.44985
2.104056
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 9. Hasil Korelasi antara Harga Ekspor Jagung Pipil (Harga
Internasional) dengan Produksi
Jagung Pipil Sumatera
Utara
Correlations
Descriptive Statistics
Mean
produksi
hargaekspor
Std. Deviation
N
87850.4444
26593.07132
9
2525.2222
1770.32481
9
Correlations
produksi
produksi
Pearson Correlation
hargaekspor
1
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
hargaekspor
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
.860**
.003
9
9
.860**
1
.003
9
9
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 10. Hasil
Korelasi antara
Harga Jagung Pipil Sumatera
Utara (Harga Domestik) dengan Produksi
Jagung Pipil
Sumatera Utara
Correlations
Descriptive Statistics
Mean
produksi
hargasumut
Std. Deviation
N
87850.4444
26593.07132
9
1707.1111
676.95429
9
Correlations
produksi
produksi
Pearson Correlation
hargasumut
1
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
hargasumut
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
.976**
.000
9
9
.976**
1
.000
9
9
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Universitas Sumatera Utara