Palm drops on high inventory, subdued related oils.
FCPO Daily Commentary
Brought to you by Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd (362533-U) (A
member of PhillipCapital)
PALM FCPO MAR18 (2521,-17)
Bearish
Our Call of The Day:
29 December 2017
FCPO 3rd Month Daily Candle Chart
Crude Palm Oil Futures
Bursa Malaysia Derivatives FCPO
Contact
Market Commentary
Highlights:
Jan18
Feb18
Mar18
Apr18
May18
Jun18
Jul18
Sep18
Nov18
Jan19
Mar19
May19
Jul19
Sep19
Nov19
Total
Last
2,459
2,496
2,521
2,540
2,550
2,540
2,522
2,511
2,511
2,540
2,558
2,555
2,548
2,533
2,533
Change
-15
-15
-17
-19
-20
-21
-24
-26
-26
-26
-26
-26
-26
-26
-26
Open
2,440
2,501
2,522
2,544
2,555
2,554
2,533
2,529
2,531
2,554
-
High
2,468
2,506
2,533
2,552
2,563
2,556
2,538
2,530
2,531
2,554
-
Low
2,440
2,480
2,508
2,529
2,541
2,530
2,517
2,508
2,505
2,554
-
Open Interest
Volume
Lots
Changes
3,371
-217
555
24,137
-239
2,442
43,574
-1,402 14,929
35,965
152
2,200
45,153
-252
2,153
6,921
543
1,250
26,193
-638
1,906
21,217
185
868
19,016
99
386
5,749
-4
4
5,501
0
6,508
0
4
808
-4
4
238
0
30
0
244,381
-1,777 26,701
Palm drops on high inventory, subdued related oils.
Soybeans fall to 4-month low on South American weather.
Crude Palm Oil
Malaysian palm oil futures dropped on Thursday closed, slipping from the previous session's oneweek high, as market anticipate on ample supplies, stronger ringgit and weaker soybean oil
dampened sentiment.
The benchmark March 18 slid RM17 to RM2,521 per tonne, prices were traded between RM2,508
and RM2,533 with total traded volume for palm stood at 26,701 lots.
Demand rose by about 1 percent for Dec. 1-25 compared with the same period a month earlier,
data released by cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services (ITS) and Societe Generale de
Surveillance (SGS) showed on Tuesday.
In related news, Indonesia trade Ministry said the crude palm oil export tax kept unchanged from
the previous month at USD0 per tonne.
Accordi g to the cou tr ’s Natio al Meteorological Ce ter, rai is e pected i so e areas of
Chi a’s orth a d ce tral in the next 10 days. In Malaysia, isolated thunderstorms, rain seen in
Sabah and Sarawak through to Saturday, according to the Malaysian Meteorological Department.
Continuous heavy rain can cause flooding and disrupt harvesting and transport of palm fruit.
The related edible oils almost flat, the May18 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity
Exchange was up 0.1 percent, while the Dalian Jan18 palm olein contract also rose 0.5 percent.
Spreads
Contract
Jan18 /Feb18
Feb18 /Mar18
Mar18 /Apr18
Apr18 /May18
Open
-40
-26
-19
-13
Correlated Commodity Market
Commodities
Month
Soybeans
MAR 18
Soybean Oil
MAR 18
Soybean Meal
MAR 18
Crude Oil
FEB 18
DCE Palm Oil
MAY 18
DCE Soybean Oil
MAY 18
Physical Palm Oil Market
Commodities
CPKO Local Delivery (M'sia)
FOB CPO (Indo)
FOB RBD Palm Olein (M'sia)
FOB RBD Palm Oil (M'sia)
High
-35
-24
-18
-11
Last
956.75
32.71
316.10
59.84
5,242
5,704
Unit
RM/mt
USD/mt
USD/mt
USD/mt
Low
-50
-28
-21
-13
Last
-48
-27
-19
-11
Exchange Rate
Currency
Last
USDMYR 4.0652
USDIDR 13,537
USDCNY 6.5334
Change
-10.75
-0.56
-2.40
0.20
20.00
14.00
Month
DEC17
JAN18
JAN18
JAN18
Vol
529
1,135
1,293
317
Bid
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Ask
4927.31
632.5
627.50
622.50
Value
n/a
628.75
621.25
n/a
MPOB Demand and Supply Analysis (6 Month Comparison)
We expect palm prices to trade lower tracking overnight sharp dropped in soyoil prices due to
improving weather in South America. Also, profit taking activities likely to take place ahead of
long weekend.
Soybean (Reuters)
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures declined on Thursday, with the most-active March
contract touching its lowest in nearly four months on improving weather conditions in South
America.
Soybeans declined as traders monitored crop weather in South America. Conditions remained
largely favorable in Brazil, the world's biggest soy exporter, while much-needed showers were
forecast this weekend in parts of Argentina, the No. 3 producer.
Brazil's oilseed processors' association, Abiove, last week left its forecast of Brazil's 2017/18
soybean crop unchanged at 109.5 million tonnes, second only to the record-large 2016/17
harvest of 114 million tonnes.
Additional pressure stemmed from worries that more stringent quality rules on Chinese soybean
imports starting in 2018 could stall U.S. sales to the world's largest soybean buyer.
1Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd
FCPO Daily
Demand and Supply Data
Date
First 10 days
First 15 days
First 20 days
First 25 days
Full month
Export Quantity Analysis
Cargo Surveyor Figures
ITS (in tonnes)
SGS (in tonnes)
Nov'17
Dec'17 Chg (%)
Nov'17
Dec'17
Chg (%)
436,988
364,277 -16.6
439,879
339,289
-22.9
660,465
596,862
-9.6
650,962
581,254
-10.7
891,926
874,022
-2.0
882,943
865,309
-2.0
1,079,427 1,090,622 1.0
1,094,318 1,108,189
1.3
Malaysia Palm Oil Board Data (MPOB)
(in tonnes)
Production
Export
Import
Local Disapp
Stock
Stock/Use ratio
PFSB Forecast
Oct'17
Nov'17
MoM (%)
2,008,838
1,538,041
13,479
302,508
2,203,709
1.08
1,942,834
1,354,373
30,191
265,725
2,556,636
1.55
-3.3
-11.9
124.0
-12.2
16.0
43.4
Nov'17
Chg (%)
Spread (CBOT Soyoil - BMD Crude Palm Oil)
G204
Spread (DCE Palm Olein - BMD Crude Palm Oil)
Sources: Thomson Reuters / Bloomberg/ MPOB /ITS/ SGS/ Phillip Futures
Dealing Desk
pfsb_dealing@poems.com.my
CONTACT US:
Kuala Lumpur Headquarters:
(+603) 2711 0026
pfsb_research@poems.com.my
Johor - Taman Sutera Utama Branch:
(+607) 5572188
pfjb@poems.com.my
Penang Branch:
(+604) 2616822
pfpg@poems.com.my
Kota Damansara Branch:
(+603) 26308688
phillipfutures@poems.com.my
Johor - Taman Molek Branch:
(+607) 3525999
pfjb@poems.com.my
Kuching Branch:
(+6082) 247633
pfkc@poems.com.my
Malacca Branch:
(+606) 2748711
pfmk@poems.com.my
Official Website: www.phillipfutures.com.my
Facebook Page:
www.facebook.com/PhillipFuturesSdnBhd
DISCLAIMER
This publication is solely for information only. It should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the futures contracts mentioned herein. The publication has been prepared by Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd on the basis
of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst we have taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is accurate and the opinions are fair and
reasonable, it does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this publication. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group
of persons acting on such information and advice. This publication was prepared without regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Whilst views and advice given are in good faith, you should not regard the
publication as a substitute for the exercise of your own judgement and should seek other professional advice for your specific investment needs or financial situations.
2Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd
Brought to you by Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd (362533-U) (A
member of PhillipCapital)
PALM FCPO MAR18 (2521,-17)
Bearish
Our Call of The Day:
29 December 2017
FCPO 3rd Month Daily Candle Chart
Crude Palm Oil Futures
Bursa Malaysia Derivatives FCPO
Contact
Market Commentary
Highlights:
Jan18
Feb18
Mar18
Apr18
May18
Jun18
Jul18
Sep18
Nov18
Jan19
Mar19
May19
Jul19
Sep19
Nov19
Total
Last
2,459
2,496
2,521
2,540
2,550
2,540
2,522
2,511
2,511
2,540
2,558
2,555
2,548
2,533
2,533
Change
-15
-15
-17
-19
-20
-21
-24
-26
-26
-26
-26
-26
-26
-26
-26
Open
2,440
2,501
2,522
2,544
2,555
2,554
2,533
2,529
2,531
2,554
-
High
2,468
2,506
2,533
2,552
2,563
2,556
2,538
2,530
2,531
2,554
-
Low
2,440
2,480
2,508
2,529
2,541
2,530
2,517
2,508
2,505
2,554
-
Open Interest
Volume
Lots
Changes
3,371
-217
555
24,137
-239
2,442
43,574
-1,402 14,929
35,965
152
2,200
45,153
-252
2,153
6,921
543
1,250
26,193
-638
1,906
21,217
185
868
19,016
99
386
5,749
-4
4
5,501
0
6,508
0
4
808
-4
4
238
0
30
0
244,381
-1,777 26,701
Palm drops on high inventory, subdued related oils.
Soybeans fall to 4-month low on South American weather.
Crude Palm Oil
Malaysian palm oil futures dropped on Thursday closed, slipping from the previous session's oneweek high, as market anticipate on ample supplies, stronger ringgit and weaker soybean oil
dampened sentiment.
The benchmark March 18 slid RM17 to RM2,521 per tonne, prices were traded between RM2,508
and RM2,533 with total traded volume for palm stood at 26,701 lots.
Demand rose by about 1 percent for Dec. 1-25 compared with the same period a month earlier,
data released by cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services (ITS) and Societe Generale de
Surveillance (SGS) showed on Tuesday.
In related news, Indonesia trade Ministry said the crude palm oil export tax kept unchanged from
the previous month at USD0 per tonne.
Accordi g to the cou tr ’s Natio al Meteorological Ce ter, rai is e pected i so e areas of
Chi a’s orth a d ce tral in the next 10 days. In Malaysia, isolated thunderstorms, rain seen in
Sabah and Sarawak through to Saturday, according to the Malaysian Meteorological Department.
Continuous heavy rain can cause flooding and disrupt harvesting and transport of palm fruit.
The related edible oils almost flat, the May18 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity
Exchange was up 0.1 percent, while the Dalian Jan18 palm olein contract also rose 0.5 percent.
Spreads
Contract
Jan18 /Feb18
Feb18 /Mar18
Mar18 /Apr18
Apr18 /May18
Open
-40
-26
-19
-13
Correlated Commodity Market
Commodities
Month
Soybeans
MAR 18
Soybean Oil
MAR 18
Soybean Meal
MAR 18
Crude Oil
FEB 18
DCE Palm Oil
MAY 18
DCE Soybean Oil
MAY 18
Physical Palm Oil Market
Commodities
CPKO Local Delivery (M'sia)
FOB CPO (Indo)
FOB RBD Palm Olein (M'sia)
FOB RBD Palm Oil (M'sia)
High
-35
-24
-18
-11
Last
956.75
32.71
316.10
59.84
5,242
5,704
Unit
RM/mt
USD/mt
USD/mt
USD/mt
Low
-50
-28
-21
-13
Last
-48
-27
-19
-11
Exchange Rate
Currency
Last
USDMYR 4.0652
USDIDR 13,537
USDCNY 6.5334
Change
-10.75
-0.56
-2.40
0.20
20.00
14.00
Month
DEC17
JAN18
JAN18
JAN18
Vol
529
1,135
1,293
317
Bid
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Ask
4927.31
632.5
627.50
622.50
Value
n/a
628.75
621.25
n/a
MPOB Demand and Supply Analysis (6 Month Comparison)
We expect palm prices to trade lower tracking overnight sharp dropped in soyoil prices due to
improving weather in South America. Also, profit taking activities likely to take place ahead of
long weekend.
Soybean (Reuters)
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures declined on Thursday, with the most-active March
contract touching its lowest in nearly four months on improving weather conditions in South
America.
Soybeans declined as traders monitored crop weather in South America. Conditions remained
largely favorable in Brazil, the world's biggest soy exporter, while much-needed showers were
forecast this weekend in parts of Argentina, the No. 3 producer.
Brazil's oilseed processors' association, Abiove, last week left its forecast of Brazil's 2017/18
soybean crop unchanged at 109.5 million tonnes, second only to the record-large 2016/17
harvest of 114 million tonnes.
Additional pressure stemmed from worries that more stringent quality rules on Chinese soybean
imports starting in 2018 could stall U.S. sales to the world's largest soybean buyer.
1Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd
FCPO Daily
Demand and Supply Data
Date
First 10 days
First 15 days
First 20 days
First 25 days
Full month
Export Quantity Analysis
Cargo Surveyor Figures
ITS (in tonnes)
SGS (in tonnes)
Nov'17
Dec'17 Chg (%)
Nov'17
Dec'17
Chg (%)
436,988
364,277 -16.6
439,879
339,289
-22.9
660,465
596,862
-9.6
650,962
581,254
-10.7
891,926
874,022
-2.0
882,943
865,309
-2.0
1,079,427 1,090,622 1.0
1,094,318 1,108,189
1.3
Malaysia Palm Oil Board Data (MPOB)
(in tonnes)
Production
Export
Import
Local Disapp
Stock
Stock/Use ratio
PFSB Forecast
Oct'17
Nov'17
MoM (%)
2,008,838
1,538,041
13,479
302,508
2,203,709
1.08
1,942,834
1,354,373
30,191
265,725
2,556,636
1.55
-3.3
-11.9
124.0
-12.2
16.0
43.4
Nov'17
Chg (%)
Spread (CBOT Soyoil - BMD Crude Palm Oil)
G204
Spread (DCE Palm Olein - BMD Crude Palm Oil)
Sources: Thomson Reuters / Bloomberg/ MPOB /ITS/ SGS/ Phillip Futures
Dealing Desk
pfsb_dealing@poems.com.my
CONTACT US:
Kuala Lumpur Headquarters:
(+603) 2711 0026
pfsb_research@poems.com.my
Johor - Taman Sutera Utama Branch:
(+607) 5572188
pfjb@poems.com.my
Penang Branch:
(+604) 2616822
pfpg@poems.com.my
Kota Damansara Branch:
(+603) 26308688
phillipfutures@poems.com.my
Johor - Taman Molek Branch:
(+607) 3525999
pfjb@poems.com.my
Kuching Branch:
(+6082) 247633
pfkc@poems.com.my
Malacca Branch:
(+606) 2748711
pfmk@poems.com.my
Official Website: www.phillipfutures.com.my
Facebook Page:
www.facebook.com/PhillipFuturesSdnBhd
DISCLAIMER
This publication is solely for information only. It should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the futures contracts mentioned herein. The publication has been prepared by Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd on the basis
of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst we have taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is accurate and the opinions are fair and
reasonable, it does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this publication. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group
of persons acting on such information and advice. This publication was prepared without regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Whilst views and advice given are in good faith, you should not regard the
publication as a substitute for the exercise of your own judgement and should seek other professional advice for your specific investment needs or financial situations.
2Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd