NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia
- 11.4%
- 62 21 797 6202, ext:114 [email protected]
34.5% 32.8% 32.4% 33.0%
35
39
42
42 EPS growth 32.4% 12.1% 8.7% 10.0% BVPS (IDR) 229 266 306 349 EBITDA margin
53.0% 55.5% 55.3% 54.9%
Net Profit Margin
ROE
Net Revenues growth 4.7% 18.1% 9.8% 8.1%
16.3% 15.7% 14.8% 14.2%
ROA
8.5% 8.5% 8.4% 8.6%
ROIC 15.0% 15.8% 15.6% 15.2% P/E 16.3x 17.6x 12.7x 12.7x P/BV 2.5x 2.6x 1.7x 1.5x EV/EBITDA 12.6x 11.8x 8.4x 7.5x DPS (IDR)
4.5
6.0
6.0
EBITDA 2,567 3,175 3,473 3,728 Net profit 1,671 1,873 2,036 2,240 EPS (IDR)
Net Revenues 4,841 5,718 6,281 6,787
Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer Company Report | Aug 06, 2018 Pakuwon Jati Tbk (PWON) Pendapatan Berulang Menyangga Datarnya Marketing Sales Buy Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 625 Consensus Price (IDR) 705 TP to Consensus Price
1M
vs. Last Price +16.8% Shares data
Last Price (IDR) 535 Price date as of Aug 03, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 715 / 496 Free float 30.2% Outstanding sh.(mn) 48,160 Market Cap (IDR bn) 23,765 Market Cap (USD mn) 1,775 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)
54.93 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)
30.09 Foreign Ownership 13.1%
Property Real Estate Owner & Developer Bloomberg PWON.IJ Reuters PWON.JK Michael Tjahjadi
Pakuwon Jati Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
Share Price Performance YTD
3M
2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
12M
Abs. Ret. -21.9% 0.9% -7.0% -22.5% Rel. Ret. -16.4% -5.7% -9.5% -26.4%
Proyek-proyek Surabaya Mengerek Kinerja 2Q18 PWON berhasil melanjutkan peningkatan kinerjanya hingga 2Q18.
Pendapatan bersih pada 2Q18 tercatat tumbuh menjadi Rp1,73 triliun (+10,0% y-y) yang ditopang oleh peningkatan penjualan segmen tanah dan bangunan menjadi Rp312 miliar (+155,5% y-y). Kontribusi proyek-proyek di Surabaya, terutama proyek Grand Pakuwon dan Tunjungan City, terhadap pendapatan PWON meningkat mencapai 61,2% dari 59,6% pada 1Q18.
Di sisi lain, kinerja margin laba kotor 2Q18 juga tumbuh menjadi 58,9%, yang meningkat dari 56,2% secara tahunan dan 57,0% secara kuartalan. Namun, nilai tukar rupiah yang terus melemah menyebabkan kerugian kurs mata uang asing mencapai Rp172,9 miliar dan turut menekan kinerja margin laba bersih 2Q18 menjadi 32,7%.
Ditopang Kuatnya Portfolio Pendapatan Berulang Pada 2018, PWON masih mengandalkan proyek-proyek yang sedang berjalan dan belum berencana untuk melucurkan proyek baru. Hal ini berdampak pula pada perolehan marketing sales 1H18 yang baru mencapai 41,5% dari target 2018 atau sebesar Rp1,09 triliun (-9,64% y-y).
Kami memproyeksikan bahwa sedikitnya proyek baru ini akan menekan kinerja marketing sales di kisaran Rp2,5 triliun hingga 2019. Meskipun demikian, kuatnya segmen pendapatan berulang mampu menjaga kinerja PWON. Pada 2019, PWON akan menggarap proyek mixed use di kawasan Bekasi dengan nilai investasi Rp1,8 triliun. Selain itu, PWON akan membangun 4 menara apartemen, hotel, dan pusat perbelanjaan yang lokasinya berdekatan dengan stasiun light rail transit (LRT) serta pintu tol Bekasi Barat.
6.0 Dividend yield 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1%
Target Harga Rp625
Kami menggunakan estimasi discount to RNAV sebesar 61,5% (rata-rata 3 tahun terakhir) sebagai basis metode valuasi. Saat ini, saham PWON diperdagangkan dengan discount to RNAV 2018/F sebesar 66,6%.Sekilas tentang PWON PWON adalah salah satu perusahaan pengembang properti yang berfokus pada segmen pusat perbelanjaan, kondominium, perkantoran maupun kombinasi ketiganya (superblok). Proyek-proyek yang digarap PWON tersebar di dua kota metropolitan terbesar di Indonesia, dengan rasio pendapatan 38,8% (Jakarta) dan 61,2% (Surabaya).
Persediaan tanah : landbank
Proyek-proyek tersebut berada di lokasi yang strategis dan mengincar segmen menengah-atas.
Pendapatan dari penjualan properti :
Dengan portfolio beberapa superblok seperti Kota Kasablanka, Gandaria City di Jakarta
development revenue
dan Tunjungan City, Pakuwon Mall di Surabaya; PWON berhasil menyeimbangkan rasio
Segmen perumahan: self contained city
pendapatan berulang dan pendapatan dari penjualan properti. Selain tengah menggarap beberapa proyek baru, PWON juga masih memiliki persediaan tanah di area superblok untuk rencana ekspansi mendatang. Dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, PWON juga berkespansi ke segmen kota mandiri melalui proyek Pakuwon City dan Grand Pakuwon di Surabaya.
Industri Pengembang Properti Indonesia di ASEAN Indonesia merupakan negara terluas yang memiliki persediaan tanah dan jumlah penduduk terbanyak di ASEAN. Hal tersebut menjadikan Indonesia sebagai lokasi yang baik bagi bisnis pengembang properti. Pengembang properti Indonesia memiliki persediaan tanah yang lebih besar daripada pengembang di negara ASEAN. Seperti BKSL, mempunyai persediaan lahan 14.666 hektar dan BSDE 3.966 hektar.
Sektor properti di Indonesia dan Filipina menjadi yang paling bersaing di antara negara ASEAN. Pengembang-pengembang properti di negara tersebut mencatatkan gross margin yang lebih baik walaupun mempunyai total aset yang lebih rendah dari negara- negara lainnya.
ASEAN Real Estate Developer Market Cap Total Asset Sales Gross Operating Net Profit Dividend Company ROE P/E (USD mn) (USD mn) Growth Margin Margin Growth Yield
BSDE 1,777 3,382 56.71% 73.4% 48.9% 11.2% 13.8% 7.7x N/A CTRA 1,247 2,333 -4.40% 47% 25.2% 30.5% 5.6% 24.8x 1.5%
- PWON 1,775 1,719 18.10% 59% 48.9% 25.4% 20.5% 12.3x 1.1% SMRA 761 1,594 4.50% 46% 23.8% -6.5% 5.2% 33.1x 0.7%
Singapore
Capitaland Ltd 9,524 45,972 12.23% 40% 47% 8.7% 8.1% 8.9x 3.8%
- Malaysia
- SP Setia Bhd 2,838 6,826 20.86% 33% 22% 13.6% 7.5% 13.8x 5.2%
IOI Properties Group Bhd 2,428 7,823 38.36% 44% 32% 12.2% 4.8% 11.8x 3.3%
- Thailand
Land & Houses PUB Co Ltd 4,387 3,362 16.76% 34% 30% 32.9% 21.6% 13.1x 6.1% WHA Corp Ltd 1,725 2,260 46.72% 47% 39% 38.7% 16.7% 14.8x 3.5%
- Philippines
Megaworld Corp 2,880 6,212 8.65% 62% 41% 12.6% 9.4% 11.6x 1.3% Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
Operational Performance Quarterly Net Revenues (IDR bn) | 1Q15 - 2Q18 Quarterly Marketing Sales (IDR bn) | 1Q15 - 2Q18
Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research
Margin Ratios | 1Q17 - 2Q18 Revenue Breakdown | 2Q18
Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research
Land Bank Portofolio | 2Q18 Land Bank Location Area (ha)
Kota Kasablanka South Jakarta
6.5 Gandaria City South Jakarta
1.9 Simatupang South Jakarta
4.5 Daan Mogot West Jakarta
11.0 Bekasi Greater Jakarta
3.6 Tunjungan City Central Surabaya
3.2 Pakuwon City Township East Surabaya 212.2 Outside Pakuwon City East Surabaya
21.5 Grand Pakuwon Towship West Surabaya 161.5 Pakuwon Mall West Surabaya
3.9 Royal Plaza West Surabaya
1.8 Outside Grand Pakuwon West Surabaya
6.9 Total Area 437.5 Source: Company
Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 3 years Discount to NAV band | Last 3 years
Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research
Rating and target price Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus
03/28/2018 Buy 700 605 734 +15.7% 4.6%
- 05/23/2018 Buy 625 496 725 +26.0% 13.8%
- 08/03/2018 Hold 625 535 705 +16.8% 11.4%
- Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
Closing and Target Price Analyst Coverage Rating
Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings
1. Period: End of year target price
2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication : Greater than +15%
Buy : -15% to +15% Hold : Less than -15% Sell
Summary of Financials
DISCLAIMER
INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET
This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This
report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling
offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information here is obtained
from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees,
and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person
as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for
errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia PWON Summary Last Price (IDR) 535Target Price (IDR) 625 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Rating: Buy ROE 16.3% 15.7% 14.8% 14.2% ROA 8.5% 8.5% 8.4% 8.6% ROIC 15.0% 15.8% 15.6% 15.2% EBITDA/Equi ty 25.1% 26.7% 25.2% 23.6%In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E EBITDA/As s ets 13.0% 14.4% 14.3% 14.4%
Net Revenues 4,841 5,718 6,281 6,787 Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn) 217 289 289 289Growth (% y/y) 4.7% 18.1% 9.8% 8.1% Di vi dend Yi el d (%) 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1%
Cos t of Revenues (2,088) (2,353) (2,664) (2,881) Pa yout Ra ti o (%) 13% 15% 14% 13%
Gross Profit 2,754 3,364 3,617 3,906 DER 48% 42% 38% 31%Gross Margin 56.9% 58.8% 57.6% 57.6% Net Gea ri ng 63% 54% 48% 38%
Opera ti ng Expens es (525) (569) (577) (624) LT Debt to Equi ty 41% 39% 33% 26%
EBIT 2,228 2,795 3,040 3,282 Ca pi ta l i za ti on Ra ti o 32% 30% 27% 24%
EBIT Margin 46.0% 48.9% 48.4% 48.4% Equi ty Ra ti o 53% 55% 58% 63%
Depreci a ti on 339 380 434 445 Debt Ra ti o 25% 23% 22% 20%
EBITDA 2,567 3,175 3,473 3,728 Fi na nci a l Levera ge 193% 185% 177% 164%
EBITDA Margin 53.0% 55.5% 55.3% 54.9% Current Ra ti o 133% 172% 201% 237%
Interes t Expens es (202) (294) (244) (251) Qui ck Ra ti o 57% 78% 107% 132%
EBT 1,732 2,072 2,315 2,512 Ca s h Ra ti o 53% 69% 99% 123%
Income Ta x 48 (47) (29) (44) Ca s h Convers i on Cycl e 428.3 487.5 492.7 467.6 Mi nori ty Interes t (109) (152) (250) (227) Pa r Va l ue (IDR) 25 25 25Growth (% y/y) 32.4% 12.1% 8.7% 10.0% Sha re Pri ce (IDR) 565 685 535 535
25 Net Profit 1,671 1,873 2,036 2,240 Tota l Sha res (mn) 48,160 48,160 48,160 48,160 Net Profit Margin 34.5% 32.8% 32.4% 33.0% Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn) 27.2 33.0 25.8 25.8 In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12ECa s h 2,432 3,406 4,952 5,630 Pri ce /Ea rni ngs 16.3x 17.6x 12.7x 12.7x
Recei va bl es 186 448 407 432 Pri ce /Book Va l ue 2.5x 2.6x 1.7x 1.5x
Inventori es 2,860 3,741 3,806 3,961 Pri ce/Revenue 5.6x 5.8x 4.1x 3.8x
Total Current Assets 6,127 8,428 10,064 10,874 PE/EPS Growth 0.5x 1.5x 1.4x 1.3x
Net Fi xed As s ets 12,164 12,461 12,556 12,788 EV/EBITDA 12.6x 11.8x 8.4x 7.6x
Other Non Current As s ets 2,383 2,470 2,722 2,848 EV/EBIT 14.5x 13.4x 9.6x 8.6x
Total Assets 20,674 23,359 25,342 26,510 EV (IDR bn) 32,354 37,483 29,069 28,149
Pa ya bl es 212 364 355 386 Revenue CAGR (3-Yr) 16.9% 13.9% 10.7% 11.9%
ST Debt 769 402 724 850 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) 13.8% -9.4% 17.3% 10.3%
Other Current Li a b. 3,637 4,147 3,920 3,357 Ba s i c EPS (IDR) 35 39 42 42 LT Debt 4,471 5,026 4,863 4,364 Di l uted EPS (IDR) 35 39 42 42 Other Non Current Li a b. 566 628 744 734 BVPS (IDR) 229 266 306 349Total Liabilities 9,654 10,567 10,606 9,691 Revenue PS (IDR) 101 119 130 141
Shareholders' Equity 11,020 12,791 14,736 16,818 DPS (IDR) 5 6 6 Net Income 1,671 1,873 2,036 2,240 DCF (IDR bn) 6 In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12EDeprec & Amorti za ti on 339 380 434 445 NOPAT 2,291 2,731 3,002 3,225
Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l - - (663) +Depr./Amor. 339 380 434 445
CFO 2,010 2,252 2,470 2,022 -CAPEX (272) (146) (493) (677)
Ca pex (272) (146) (493) (677) -Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p. - - (663)
CFI (1,141) (507) (819) (813) (Unl evered) FCFF 2,358 2,965 2,942 2,330
Di vi dends Pa i d (229) (216) (0) (289) WACCNet Borrowi ng (PMT) 395 2,781 (62) (373) Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.) 12.7% 9.9% 11.8% 11.2%
CFF 165 (119) (15) (531) Cos t of Equi ty (COE) 10.5% 11.0% 10.9% 9.3%
Net Changes in Cash 1,034 1,627 1,636 678 WACC (%) 10.8% 10.8% 11.1% 9.7%
RIM Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%) 7.2% 6.0% 5.0% 5.9% Res i dua l Income (IDR bn) 681 665 638 865By Geography % Shareholders % Equi ty Cha rge (IDR bn) 990 1,207 1,398 1,375
Indones i a 86.9 PT Pa kuwon A 69.7 EVA Uni ted Sta tes 6.8 Va ngua rd Group Inc 2.0 Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn) 14,363 16,260 18,219 20,322 Luxembourg 2.4 Bl a ckrock Inc 1.0 ROIC-WACC (%) 5.1% 6.0% 5.4% 6.2% Uni ted Ki ngdom 1.2 TT Interna ti ona l 0.8 EVA (IDR bn) 737 975 981 1,263CASH FLOW STATEMENT DCF, RIM & EVA OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY August 3, 2018 Dec 2018 Analyst: Michael Tjahjadi