T he value of a firm today is the present value of all its future cash
T he value of a firm today is the present value of all its future cash
flows. These future cash flows come from assets that are already in place and from future investment opportunities. These future cash flows are discounted at a rate that represents investors’ assessments of the uncertainty that they will flow in the amounts and when expected:
Value of firm = Present value of all future cash flows = Present value of cash flows from all assets in place
+ Present value of cash flows from future investment opportunities The objective of the financial manager is to maximize the value of
the firm and, therefore, owners’ wealth. As we saw in the previous chap- ter, the financial manager makes decisions regarding long-lived assets in the process referred to as capital budgeting. The capital budgeting deci- sions for a project require analysis of:
■ Its future cash flows, ■ The degree of uncertainty associated with these future cash flows, and ■ The value of these future cash flows considering their uncertainty.
We looked at how to estimate cash flows in Chapter 12 where we were concerned with a project’s incremental cash flows. These comprise changes in operating cash flows (change in revenues, expenses, and taxes), and changes in investment cash flows (the firm’s incremental cash flows from the acquisition and disposition of the project’s assets).
In the next chapter, we introduce the second required element of capital budgeting: risk. In the study of valuation principles, we saw that the more uncertain a future cash flow, the less it is worth today. The degree of uncertainty, or risk, is reflected in a project’s cost of capital.
LONG-TERM INVESTMENT DECISIONS
The cost of capital is what the firm must pay for the funds needed to finance an investment. The cost of capital may be an explicit cost (for example, the interest paid on debt) or an implicit cost (for example, the expected price appreciation of shares of the firm’s common stock).
In this chapter, we focus on the third element of capital budgeting: valuing the future cash flows. Given estimates of incremental cash flows for a project and given a cost of capital that reflects the project’s risk, we look at alternative techniques that are used to select projects.
For now, we will incorporate risk into our calculations in either of two ways: (1) we can discount future cash flows using a higher discount rate, the greater the cash flow’s risk, or (2) we can require a higher annual return on
a project, the greater the risk of its cash flows. We will look at specific ways of estimating risk and incorporating risk in the discount rate in Chapter 14.
EVALUATION TECHNIQUES Exhibit 13.1 shows four pairs of projects for evaluation. Look at the
incremental cash flows for Investments A and B shown in the table. Can you tell by looking at the cash flows for Investment A whether or not it enhances wealth? Or, can you tell by just looking at Investments A and
B which one is better? Perhaps with some projects you may think you can pick out which one is better simply by gut feeling or eyeballing the cash flows. But why do it that way when there are precise methods to evaluate investments by their cash flows?
To evaluate investment projects and select the one that maximizes wealth, we must determine the cash flows from each investment and then assess the uncertainty of all the cash flows. In this section, we look at six techniques that are commonly used to evaluate investments in long-term assets:
1. Payback period
4. Profitability index
2. Discounted payback period
5. Internal rate of return
6. Modified internal rate of return We are interested in how well each technique discriminates among the differ-
3. Net present value
ent projects, steering us toward the projects that maximize owners’ wealth. An evaluation technique should consider all the following elements of a capital project:
■ All the future incremental cash flows from the project; ■ The time value of money; and
■ The uncertainty associated with future cash flows.
Capital Budgeting Techniques
Projects selected using a technique that satisfies all three criteria will, under most general conditions, maximize owners’ wealth. Such a tech- nique should include objective rules to determine which project or projects to select.
In addition to judging whether each technique satisfies these crite- ria, we will also look at which ones can be used in special situations, such as when a dollar limit is placed on the capital budget. We will dem- onstrate each technique and determine in what way and how well it evaluates each of the projects described in Exhibit 13.1.
EXHIBIT 13.1 Projects Evaluated
Investments A and B Investments E and F
Each requires an investment of $1,000,000 Each requires $1,000,000 at the end of at the end of the year 2000 and has a the year 2000 and has a cost of capital cost of capital of 10% per year.
of 5% per year.
End of Year Cash Flow End of Year Cash Flows Year Investment A
Investment B Year Investment E Investment F
Investments C and D Investments G and H
Each requires $1,000,000 at the end of Each requires $1,000,000 at the end of the year 2000 and has a cost of capital the year 2000. Investment G has a cost of 10% per year.
of capital of 5% per year; Investment H’s cost of capital is 10% per year.
End of Year Cash Flows End of Year Cash Flows Year Investment C
Investment D Year Investment G Investment H
LONG-TERM INVESTMENT DECISIONS
Parts
» Financial Management and Analysis
» SECURITIES MARKETS The primary function of a securities market—whether or not it has a
» Stock Exchanges Stock exchanges are formal organizations, approved and regulated by
» Stock Market Indicators Stock market indicators have come to perform a variety of functions,
» Efficient Markets Investors do not like risk and they must be compensated for taking on
» THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM The United States has a central monetary authority known as the Fed-
» The Fed and the Money Supply Financial managers and investors are interested in the supply and
» Deposit Institutions Traditionally, the United States has had several types of deposit institu-
» Investment Banking The primary market involves the distribution to investors of newly
» Interest Rates and Yields Because bonds are traded in the secondary market, the price of the bond
» The Risk Premium Market participants talk of interest rates on non-Treasury securities as
» OPTIONS An option is a contract in which the writer of the option grants the
» Buying Call Options The purchase of a call option creates a position referred to as a long call
» Buying Put Options The buying of a put option creates a financial position referred to as a
» CAP AND FLOOR AGREEMENTS There are agreements available in the financial market whereby one
» I n assessing a company’s current and future cash flows, the financial
» Depreciation for Tax Purposes For accounting purposes, a firm can select a method of depreciation
» Capital Gains We tend to use the term “capital gain” loosely to mean an increase in the
» Current assets (also referred to as circulating capital and working
» Noncurrent Assets Noncurrent assets are assets that are not current assets; that is, it is not
» Deferred Taxes Along with long-term liabilities, the analyst may encounter another
» THE INCOME STATEMENT An income statement is a summary of the revenues and expenses of a
» THE STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS The statement of cash flows is a summary over a period of time of a
» T he notion that money has a time value is one of the most basic con-
» DETERMINING THE PRESENT VALUE Now that we understand how to compute future values, let’s work the
» Shortcuts: Annuities There are valuation problems that require us to evaluate a series of level
» THE CALCULATION OF INTEREST RATES
» T here are a number of factors that affect a stock’s price and its value to
» Dividend Valuation Model If dividends are constant forever, the value of a share of stock is the
» Returns on Common Stock As we saw in the preceding section, the value of a stock is the present
» Straight Coupon Bond Suppose you are considering investing in a straight coupon bond that:
» Returns on Bonds If you invest in a bond, you realize a return from the interest it pays (if
» Coupon Bonds The present value of a bond is its current market price, which is the dis-
» Callable Bonds Some bonds have a feature, referred to as a call feature, that allows the
» RISK Whenever you make a financing or investment decision, there is some
» Financial Risk When we refer to the cash flow risk of a security, we expand our con-
» Reinvestment Rate Risk Another type of risk is the uncertainty associated with reinvesting cash
» Interest Rate Risk Interest rate risk is the sensitivity of the change in an asset’s value to
» Currency Risk In assessing the attractiveness of an investment, we estimated future cash
» 5 (Continued) Portfolio of Investment C and Investment D
» Portfolio Size and Risk What we have seen for a portfolio with two assets can be extended to
» I n Chapters 8 through 10, we discussed and practiced techniques for
» The Cost of Debt Because Congress allows you to deduct from your taxable income the
» The Cost of Common Stock The cost of common stock is the cost of raising one more dollar of com-
» INTEGRATIVE EXAMPLE: ESTIMATING THE COST OF CAPITAL FOR DUPONT
» CAPITAL BUDGETING Because a firm must continually evaluate possible investments, capital
» Investment Cash Flows When we consider the cash flows of an investment we must also consider
» Asset Disposition At the end of the useful life of an asset, the firm may be able to sell it or
» Change in Expenses When a firm takes on a new project, the costs associated with it will
» Putting It All Together Here’s what we need to put together to calculate the change in the firm’s
» The Analysis To determine the relevant cash flows to evaluate this expansion, let’s
» The Problem The new equipment costs $300,000 and is expected to have a useful life of
» T he value of a firm today is the present value of all its future cash
» Payback Period The payback period for a project is the length of time it takes to get your
» Discounted Payback Period The discounted payback period is the time needed to pay back the origi-
» Net Present Value If offered an investment that costs $5,000 today and promises to pay
» Net Present Value Decision Rule
» Profitability Index The profitability index (PI) is the ratio of the present value of change in
» Stand-Alone versus Market Risk If we have some idea of the uncertainty associated with a project’s
» Sensitivity Analysis Estimates of cash flows are based on assumptions about the economy,
» Simulation Analysis Sensitivity analysis becomes unmanageable if we change several factors
» Options on Real Assets The valuation of stock options is rather complex, but with the assis-
» OVERVIEW OF DEBT OBLIGATIONS In a debt obligation, the borrower receives money in exchange for a
» Repayment Schedule Term loans are usually repaid in installments either monthly, quarterly,
» Interest In the United States, interest is typically paid twice a year at six month
» Debt Retirement By the maturity date of the bond, the issuer must pay off the entire par
» Rating Systems In all systems the term high grade means low default risk, or conversely,
» S uppose you buy a new car that costs $20,000 and you pay cash for it.
» Limited Liability The corporate form of doing business is attractive to owners of a busi-
» Stock Ownership We can classify a corporation according to whether its shares of stock
» Voting Rights Common shareholders are generally granted rights to
» Corporate Democracy Corporate democracy gives owners of the corporation a say in how to
» Methods of Repurchasing Stock
» Dividends Although a firm’s board of directors declares a dividend on its preferred
» Sinking Funds Because there is no legal obligation to pay the preferred dividend and
» DEBT VERSUS EQUITY The combination of debt and equity used to finance a firm’s projects is
» CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND TAXES We’ve seen how the use of debt financing increases the risk to owners;
» Interest Tax Shield An interesting element introduced into the capital structure decision is
» Unused Tax Shields The value of a tax shield depends on whether the firm can use an interest
» PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER As a firm increases the relative use of debt in the capital structure, its
» A s we saw in Part Three, managers base decisions about investing in
» CASH MANAGEMENT Cash flows out of a firm as it pays for the goods and services it pur-
» The Baumol Model The Baumol Model is based on the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ)
» The Miller-Orr Model The Baumol Model assumes that cash is used uniformly throughout the
» The Check Clearing Process The process of receiving cash from customers involves several time-
» RECEIVABLES MANAGEMENT When a firm allows customers to pay for goods and services at a later
» Captive Finance Subsidiaries Some firms choose to form a wholly-owned subsidiary—a corporation
» The Economic Order Quantity Model The Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model helps us determine what
» Just-in-Time Inventory The goal of the just-in-time (JIT) inventory model is to cut down on the
» Monitoring Inventory Management We can monitor inventory by looking at financial ratios in much the
» Add-on-interest Another way of stating interest is with add-on interest, where the total
» Trade Credit Trade credit is granted by a supplier to a customer purchasing goods or
» Commercial Paper Commercial paper is an unsecured promissory note with a fixed matu-
» Types of Inventory Financing There are several different types of loan arrangements that involve
» SPECIALIZED COLLATERALIZED BORROWING ARRANGEMENT FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
» RATIOS AND THEIR CLASSIFICATION
» RETURN-ON-INVESTMENT RATIOS Return-on-investment ratios compare measures of benefits, such as earn-
» The Du Pont System The returns on investment ratios give us a “bottom line” on the perfor-
» LIQUIDITY Liquidity reflects the ability of a firm to meet its short-term obligations
» PROFITABILITY RATIOS We have seen that liquidity ratios tell us about a firm’s ability to meet its
» Using a Benchmark To interpret a firm’s financial ratios we need to compare them with the
» INTEGRATIVE EXAMPLE: FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF WAL-MART STORES 6
» Dilutive Securities For a company having securities that are dilutive—meaning they could
» ANALYSTS’ FORECASTS There are many financial services firms offering projections on different
» PRICE-EARNINGS RATIO Many investors are interested in how the earnings are valued by the mar-
» FREE CASH FLOW Cash flows without any adjustment may be misleading because they do
» NET FREE CASH FLOW There are many variations in the calculation of cash flows that are used
» Using Cash Flow Information The analysis of cash flows provides information that can be used along
» THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Many countries export a substantial portion of the goods and services
» FOREIGN CURRENCY Doing business outside of one’s own country requires dealing with the cur-
» The Euro The European Union consists of 15 European member countries that
» Global Equity Market In 1985, Euromoney surveyed several firms that either listed stock on a
» Currency Swaps When issuing bonds in another country where the bonds are not denom-
» Currency Option Contracts In contrast to a forward or futures contract, an option gives the option
» A s an alternative to the issuance of a corporate bond, a corporation
» WHAT RATING AGENCIES LOOK AT IN RATING ASSET-BACKED SECURITIES
» Third-Party Guarantees Perhaps the easiest form of credit enhancement to understand is insur-
» EXAMPLE OF AN ACTUAL STRUCTURED FINANCE TRANSACTION
» Accounting for Capital Leases
» FEDERAL INCOME TAX REQUIREMENTS FOR TRUE LEASE TRANSACTIONS
» Direct Cash Flow from Leasing When a firm elects to lease an asset rather than borrow money to pur-
» S tructured financing is a debt obligation that is backed by the value of
» CREDIT IMPACT OBJECTIVE While the sponsor or sponsors of a project financing ideally would pre-
» A business that maximizes its owners’ wealth allocates its resources
» Budgeting In budgeting, we bring together analyses of cash flows, projected income
» Taxes and Transaction Costs The Black-Scholes option pricing model ignores taxes and transaction
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