Analisis Pengaruh Fertilitas Terhadap Tenaga Kerja Wanita di Indonesia

Lampiran 1
Data Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja Wanita dan Angka Fertilitas Total di
Indonesia

Tahun

Tingkat Partisipasi
Angkatan Kerja
Wanita

Total Fertility
Rate

1990

51.90

3.122

1991

51.00

3.023

1992

50.10

2.931

1993

51.40

2.844

1994

52.70

2.764

1995

52.80

2.691

1996

53.00

2.628

1997

51.00

2.575

1998

51.50

2.534

1999

52.70

2.503

2000

52.20

2.484

2001

51.70

2.475

2002

51.20

2.474

2003

51.50

2.479

2004

51.70

2.486

2005

52.00

2.493

2006

52.40

2.495

2007

52.80

2.49

Universitas Sumatera Utara

2008

53.20

2.479

2009

53.20

2.46

2010

53.20

2.434

2011

53.30

2.403

2012

53.40

2.37

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 2
Hasil Uji Akar Unit Variabel Total Fertility Rate(TFR)

Null Hypothesis: TFR has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 4 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=4)

t-Statistic

Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

-4.405288

0.0033

Test critical values:

1% level

-3.857386

5% level

-3.040391

10% level

-2.660551

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20 observations
and may not be accurate for a sample size of 18

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(TFR)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/30/14 Time: 23:19
Sample (adjusted): 1995 2012
Included observations: 18 after adjustments

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

TFR(-1)

-0.038967

0.008845

-4.405288

0.0009

D(TFR(-1))

0.811514

0.255837

3.171999

0.0080

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D(TFR(-2))

0.527664

0.336309

1.568983

0.1426

D(TFR(-3))

-0.199986

0.320996

-0.623017

0.5449

D(TFR(-4))

-0.364836

0.229890

-1.587005

0.1385

C

0.091443

0.020992

4.356182

0.0009

R-squared

0.998851

Mean dependent var

-0.021889

Adjusted R-squared

0.998372

S.D. dependent var

0.024166

S.E. of regression

0.000975

Akaike info criterion

-10.76675

Sum squared resid

1.14E-05

Schwarz criterion

-10.46996

Log likelihood

102.9008

Hannan-Quinn criter.

-10.72583

F-statistic

2085.624

Durbin-Watson stat

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000000

2.320244

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Lampiran 3
Hasil Uji Akar Unit Variabel Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja Wanita (TPAKW) pada
Tingkat Level
Null Hypothesis: TPAKW has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=4)

t-Statistic

Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

-1.810010

0.3661

Test critical values:

1% level

-3.769597

5% level

-3.004861

10% level

-2.642242

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(TPAKW)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/30/14 Time: 23:21
Sample (adjusted): 1991 2012
Included observations: 22 after adjustments

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

TPAKW(-1)

-0.321514

0.177631

-1.810010

0.0853

C

16.82347

9.258293

1.817124

0.0842

R-squared

0.140751

Mean dependent var

0.068182

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Adjusted R-squared

0.097788

S.D. dependent var

0.759315

S.E. of regression

0.721234

Akaike info criterion

2.270801

Sum squared resid

10.40357

Schwarz criterion

2.369987

Hannan-Quinn criter.

2.294167

Durbin-Watson stat

1.505179

Log likelihood

-22.97882

F-statistic

3.276135

Prob(F-statistic)

0.085348

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Lampiran 4
Hasil Uji Akar Unit Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja Wanita pada Tingkat First
Difference
Null Hypothesis: D(TPAKW) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=4)

t-Statistic

Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic

-3.953756

0.0082

Test critical values:

1% level

-3.857386

5% level

-3.040391

10% level

-2.660551

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20 observations
and may not be accurate for a sample size of 18

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(TPAKW,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/30/14 Time: 23:22
Sample (adjusted): 1995 2012
Included observations: 18 after adjustments

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(TPAKW(-1))

-2.235725

0.565469

-3.953756

0.0016

D(TPAKW(-1),2)

0.995105

0.428931

2.319967

0.0373

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D(TPAKW(-2),2)

0.586343

0.303443

1.932303

0.0754

D(TPAKW(-3),2)

0.328474

0.212543

1.545452

0.1462

C

0.189926

0.160975

1.179847

0.2592

R-squared

0.698184

Mean dependent var

-0.066666

Adjusted R-squared

0.605317

S.D. dependent var

0.990544

S.E. of regression

0.622297

Akaike info criterion

2.119336

Sum squared resid

5.034302

Schwarz criterion

2.366661

Hannan-Quinn criter.

2.153439

Durbin-Watson stat

1.803804

Log likelihood

-14.07402

F-statistic

7.518132

Prob(F-statistic)

0.002300

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Lampiran 5
Hasil Uji Kointegrasi
Date: 09/30/14 Time: 23:24
Sample (adjusted): 1992 2012
Included observations: 21 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: TFR TPAKW
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)

Hypothesized

Trace

0.05

No. of CE(s)

Eigenvalue

Statistic

Critical Value

Prob.**

None *

0.800805

34.95191

15.49471

0.0000

At most 1

0.049634

1.069064

3.841466

0.3012

Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)

Hypothesized

Max-Eigen

0.05

No. of CE(s)

Eigenvalue

Statistic

Critical Value

Prob.**

None *

0.800805

33.88285

14.26460

0.0000

At most 1

0.049634

1.069064

3.841466

0.3012

Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level

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**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):

TFR

TPAKW

11.44358

1.786881

12.18635

-0.050160

Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):

D(TFR)

-0.003348

-0.000976

D(TPAKW)

-0.398454

0.127715

1 Cointegrating Equation(s):

Log likelihood

72.80361

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
TFR

TPAKW

1.000000

0.156147
(0.01413)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(TFR)

-0.038316
(0.01301)

D(TPAKW)

-4.559741
(1.68396)

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Lampiran 6
Hasil Uji Granger Causality
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 09/30/14 Time: 23:27
Sample: 1990 2012
Lags: 1

Null Hypothesis:

TPAKW does not Granger Cause TFR

Obs

F-Statistic

Prob.

22

6.70212

0.0180

2.23893

0.1510

Obs

F-Statistic

Prob.

21

4.61267

0.0262

0.91785

0.4194

TFR does not Granger Cause TPAKW

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 09/30/14 Time: 23:28
Sample: 1990 2012
Lags: 2

Null Hypothesis:

TPAKW does not Granger Cause TFR
TFR does not Granger Cause TPAKW

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Lampiran 7
Hasil Estimasi Regresi Sederhana
Dependent Variable: TPAKW
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/30/14 Time: 23:39
Sample: 1990 2012
Included observations: 23

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C

57.82109

2.173689

26.60044

0.0000

TFR

-2.179606

0.835809

-2.607780

0.0164

R-squared

0.244618

Mean dependent var

52.16957

Adjusted R-squared

0.208648

S.D. dependent var

0.906259

S.E. of regression

0.806189

Akaike info criterion

2.489945

Sum squared resid

13.64877

Schwarz criterion

2.588684

Hannan-Quinn criter.

2.514777

Durbin-Watson stat

0.909294

Log likelihood

-26.63437

F-statistic

6.800519

Prob(F-statistic)

0.016433

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