Adhi Karya (ADHI IJ)

Adhi Karya

27 September 2018

(ADHI IJ)

Results Note

BUY(Unchanged)
Strong 2H18 result, slightly above

Target price (Rp)

Rp1,600

Prior TP (Rp)

Rp2,700

Shareprice (Rp)


Rp1,380

Strong 1H18 result of Rp213bn (+62% yoy), above historical average
Major new contract of Rp9tn from toll road concession

Upside/downside (%)

+15.9

Expect higher DER from investment in several unsolicited toll roads

Sharesoutstanding (m)

3,561

Maintain Buy with lower TP of Rp1,600 (target P/E of 7.8x)

Marketcap. (US$ m)

329


Free float (%)

49.0

Avg. 6m dailyT/O (US$ m)

Strong result with margin expansion all across the board. ADHI reported
relatively strong earnings of Rp213bn in 1H18 (+62% yoy), which came above
expectation forming 29% of our FY18F earnings forecast (Consensus: 26%). The
strong earnings was above ADHI’s 5-year 1H’s achievement average of 25%,
which mainly supported by margin expansion all across the board due to better
margin from LRT Jabodebek and TOD projects. ADHI booked gross margin of
15.8% in 1H18, which was company best performance ever. In quarterly basis,
ADHI booked a strong earnings of Rp139bn in 2Q18 (+90% qoq, +24% yoy),
supported by high net margin of 4.7% in 2Q18 (2Q17:3.8%; 1Q18 2.3%).

0.8

Price Performance


Absolute (%)

3M

6M

12M

-22.9

-33.3

-31.0

-28.2

-30.3

Relative to JCI (%) -24.2

52w high/low (Rp)

2,480 - 1,330

130

Concession holder for Solo-Yogyakarta-Kulonprogo toll road. ADHI formed

120
110
100
90
80

JCI Index-Rebase

Major Shareholders
Government of Indonesia

51.0%


Public

49.0%

Estimate Change; Vs. Consensus

Latest EPS (Rp)

2018

2019

204.3

254.2

Vs. Prior EPS (%)
Vs. Consensus (%)


0.0

0.0

(9.5)

(15.6)

Source: Bloomberg

Sep-18

Aug-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Jun-18


Jun-18

Apr-18

ADHI-Rebase

May-18

Apr-18

Mar-18

Jan-18

Feb-18

Jan-18

Dec-17


Nov-17

Oct-17

60

Nov-17

70
Sep-17

Equity | Indonesia | Construction

Stock Data

a consortium with Gama Group and PT Daya Mulia Turangga as the initiator for
the development of Solo-Yogyakarta-Kulonprogo toll road with total investment of
Rp22.5tn. ADHI will take 40% ownership on the consortium, which will contribute
at least Rp9tn construction work which accounts to 39% of ADHI’s FY18 new
contract guidance of Rp23tn (Ours: Rp21tn). We believe making a direct

investment in a toll road project will hurt operating cash flow position and
exposing company to higher debt & financing cost. Assuming 30:70 debt-toequity financing scheme, ADHI will need total fund of Rp6.3tn of equity. However
we are still positive towards the investment in the long run as Solo-YogyakartaKulonprogo toll road is perceived as a high density track, which will provide
attractive IRR as well as provide construction work for ADHI for the next 3 years.
Aggressive investment in unsolicited toll projects leads to higher DER.
ADHI is currently working on taking minority stakes in two unsolicited toll-road
projects, namely Cikunir-Ulujami (JORR III) and Bandung Outer Ring Road with
investment of Rp22.5tn and Rp6.3tn, respectively. Despite high investments
amount, we believe these project would be a huge contribution for ADHI’s new
contract post LRT Jabodebek completion in 3Q19. We forecast ADHI to increase it
DER ratio to 1.7-7.8x in FY18/19F (FY17: 1.4x) in order to fund this major
investment in these toll road projects.
Maintain Buy on ADHI with lower TP of Rp1,600 (from Rp2,700). We
continue to like ADHI given its better margin and robust earnings growth of 25%
CAGR FY17-FY20FAs. However we forecast higher DER in FY18F going forward,
which led our DCF-based TP to decreased to Rp1,600, representing target PE of
7.8x. Key risk to our call might come from higher than expected debt issuance.

joey.faustian@ipc.co.id


Year To 31 Dec
Revenue (RpBn)
EBITDA (RpBn)
EBITDA Growth (%)
Net Profit (RpBn)
EPS (Rp)
EPS Growth (%)
Net Gearing (%)
PER (x)
PBV (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)

+62 21 5793 1168

Source: ADHI, IndoPremier

Joey Faustian
PT Indo Premier Sekuritas


Refer to Important disclosures on the last of this report

2016A
11,064
602
9.7
313
88
(32.5)
16.7
15.7
0.9
1.9
8.7

2017A
15,156
1,358
125.7
515
145
64.4
73.6
9.5
0.8
1.9
5.8

2018F
18,434
1,381
1.7
727
204
41.1
110.9
6.8
0.8
3.1
7.5

2019F
20,344
1,490
7.9
905
254
24.4
113.3
5.4
0.7
4.4
7.6

2020F
23,313
1,566
5.1
1,008
283
11.4
108.4
4.9
0.6
5.5
7.2

Share Price Closing as of : 26-Sept-2018

ADHI IJ Results Note

Fig. 1: 8M18 contract achievement

New contract

(Rp bn)

Fig. 2: New contract trend FY12-FY20F

% of FY target (Non LRT)

9,500.0

70%

New Contract

(Rp bn)
45,000

LRT

40,000

65%

9,000.0
8,500.0
48%

48%
8,000.0

35,000

60%

30,000

55%

25,000

50%

20,000
15,000

45%

40%

7,500.0
7,000.0
8M16

8M17

10,000

40%

5,000

35%

2014A

8M18

Source: Company, IndoPremier

2015A

2016A

2017A

2018F

2019F

2020F

Source: Company, IndoPremier

Fig. 3: Revenue by segment

Fig. 4: LRT Jabodebek reached 43.87% progress
Investment in
infrastructure
3%

Real Estates
7%

LRT Progress as of 9M18
80%
67%

70%

EPC
8%

60%
50%
40%

31%

33%

Cawang-Dukuh Atas

Cawang-East Bekasi

30%

Construction
82%

20%
10%
0%
Cawang-Cibubur

Source: Company, IndoPremier

Source: Company, IndoPremier

Fig. 5: Expect higher DER FY18F onwards

DER

(x)
2.0

Gross margin
1.9

1.6

Operating margin

Net margin

16.0%
1.7

1.8
1.4

Fig. 6: Margin trend FY14-FY20F

1.6

1.4

14.0%
12.0%

1.3

10.0%

1.2
1.0

8.0%

0.8

0.8

6.0%

0.6

0.6

4.0%

0.4

2.0%

0.2

0.0%

2014A

2015A

2016A

2017A

2018F

2019F

2020F

Source: Company, IndoPremier

Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report

2014A

2015A

2016A

2017F

2018F

2019F

2020F

Source: Company, IndoPremier

2

ADHI IJ Results Note
Year To 31 Dec (RpBn)

2016A

2017A

2018F

2019F

2020F

Income Statement
Net Revenue

11,064

15,156

18,434

20,344

23,313

Cost of Sales

(9,949)

(13,098)

(16,034)

(17,677)

(20,347)

Gross Profit

1,115

2,058

2,400

2,667

2,966

SG&A Expenses

(456)

(581)

(772)

(799)

(927)

Operating Profit

659

1,477

1,628

1,868

2,039

Net Interest

(95)

(341)

(453)

(448)

(492)

Forex Gain (Loss)
Others-Net
Pre-Tax Income

64

7

0

0

0

(15)

(185)

93

91

156

613

957

1,268

1,510

1,703

(298)

(440)

(538)

(602)

(692)

(2)

(2)

(2)

(3)

(3)

313

515

727

905

1,008

Cash & Equivalent

3,365

4,131

4,815

4,272

4,316

Receivable

3,970

3,739

4,170

4,610

5,228

131

3,683

3,677

3,887

4,247

9,368

13,264

15,040

16,984

19,101

16,835

24,818

27,702

29,752

32,893

1,814

1,876

3,677

4,850

5,434

0

0

0

0

0

1,446

1,639

1,696

1,847

2,025

20,095

28,333

33,076

36,450

40,352

Income Tax
Minorities
Net Income
Balance Sheet

Inventory
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets - Net
Goodwill
Non Current Assets
Total Assets
ST Loans

2,344

3,537

5,069

5,595

6,411

Payable

8,373

11,611

0

13,976

16,136

Other Payables

1,828

2,235

2,531

2,758

3,239

Current Portion of LT Loans
Total Current Liab.
Long Term Loans

500

250

250

500

0

13,044

17,633

19,792

22,829

25,786

1,428

4,665

6,625

6,242

6,423

180

164

215

247

273

14,653

22,463

26,632

29,318

32,482

Equity

3,415

3,413

3,413

3,413

3,413

Retained Earnings

1,997

2,446

3,004

3,691

4,428

10

11

12

13

14

5,422

5,869

6,428

7,116

7,854

20,075

28,332

33,060

36,434

40,337

Other LT Liab.
Total Liabilities

Minority Interest
Total SHE + Minority Int.
Total Liabilities & Equity
Source: ADHI, IndoPremier

Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report

3

ADHI IJ Results Note
Year to 31 Dec

2016A

2017A

2018F

2019F

2020F

315

517

730

908

1,011

66

131

208

332

421

2,074

191

(223)

1,378

1,259
(1,140)

Cash Flow
Net Income (Excl.Extraordinary&Min.Int)
Depr. & Amortization
Changes in Working Capital
Others
Cash Flow From Operating
Capital Expenditure

(301)

(3,124)

(3,381)

(872)

2,154

(2,285)

(2,667)

1,745

1,550

(1,257)

(386)

(2,066)

(1,656)

(1,183)

163

104

145

169

150

(1,094)

(283)

(1,922)

(1,488)

(1,034)

Loans

1,153

4,181

3,492

392

497

Equity

1

0

0

0

0

(94)

(94)

(155)

(218)

(272)

Others
Cash Flow From Investing

Dividends

(195)

(447)

(559)

(594)

(626)

866

3,640

2,778

(421)

(400)

1,926

1,072

(1,810)

(163)

117

10.1

13.6

13.0

13.1

12.7

Operating Margin (%)

6.0

9.7

8.8

9.2

8.7

Pre-Tax Margin (%)

5.5

6.3

6.9

7.4

7.3

Net Margin (%)

2.8

3.4

3.9

4.4

4.3

ROA (%)

1.7

2.1

2.4

2.6

2.6

ROE (%)

5.9

9.1

11.8

13.4

13.5

ROIC (%)

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.7

5.8

Acct. Receivables TO (days)

84.8

70.2

60.9

60.9

59.3

Acct. Receivables - Other TO (days)

35.4

22.6

17.4

17.8

17.7

Inventory TO (days)

67.8

6.9

4.4

4.7

5.0

272.6

278.4

268.1

267.6

270.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

78.8

144.0

185.8

173.4

163.4

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.3

16.7

73.6

110.9

113.3

108.4

Others
Cash Flow From Financing
Changes in Cash
Financial Ratios
Gross Margin (%)

Payable TO (days)
Acct. Payables - Other TO (days)
Debt to Equity (%)
Interest Coverage Ratio (x)
Net Gearing (%)
Source: ADHI, IndoPremier

Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report

4

Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167

INVESTMENT RATINGS
BUY
: Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD
: Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL
: Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION.
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS
This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any
responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for
general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the
particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or
sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this
report.