LAMPIRAN Lampiran 1 Data Realisasi DAK KabKota Provinsi Sumatera Utara ( Miliar Rupiah) Kabupaten Kota Tahun 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

LAMPIRAN Lampiran 1 Data Realisasi DAK Kab/Kota Provinsi Sumatera Utara ( Miliar Rupiah) Kabupaten/ Kota Tahun 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

• Sumber: BPS Kab/Kota

  140

  

Asahan 48,29 50,64 65,21 79,88 67,95

Dairi 48,03 44,16 43,36 61,13 48,99

DeliSerdang 85,59 67,20 65,48 81,87 104,69

Karo

  49,37 42,46 38,43 48,12 56,29 LabuhanBatu 45,05 45,52 75,50 49,74 40,22 Langkat 63,97 53,89 56,06 81,17 67,16 MandailingNatal 58,13 48,47 41,56 51,72 59,88 Nias 53,79 54,97 48,14 64,60 72,09

Simalungun 70,34 73,97 90,87 80,77 78,06

  

TapanuliSelatan 41,50 44,49 53,37 54,32 63,55

TapanuliTengah 51,30 52,31 48,64 83,25 90,17

TapanuliUtara 48,02 56,80 50,22 55,78 48,32

TobaSamosir 46,95 51,45 52,12 46,04 67,38

Binjai 24,83 25,27 23,78 30,66 31,53

Medan 67,20 81,59 66,30 74,28 79,64

PematangSiantar 23,11 44,78 28,45 41,40 32,66

Sibolga 18,14 22,75 19,29 29,47 33,88

TanjungBalai 19,51 20,20 17,96 28,39 25,52

TebingTinggi 17,81 22,09 25,32 36,28 36,23

PadangSidimpuan 20,66 25,57 23,99 38,33 39,96

PakpakBharat 24,61 28,84 25,46 54,01 62,18

NiasSelatan 62,22 54,20 64,68 101,80 90,90

HumbangHasundutan

  29,21 31,61 28,97 50,78 56,96 SerdangBedagai 61,31 65,76 64,78 68,23 69,56 Samosir 38,97 35,63 37,13 44,73 46,70 Batubara 42,83 38,95 44,15 42,18 51,82 LabuhanBatuUtara 29,57 44,47 42,50 48,43 51,94

LabuhanBatuSelatan 29,99 35,44 34,22 53,23 54,30

  

PadangLawas 42,77 40,03 42,52 31,08 34,72

PadangLawasUtara 35,08 44,76 36,73 36,31 36,46

GunungSitoli 29,99 50,79 56,90 31,78 32,23

NiasUtara 38,78 53,31 36,41 56,38 73,95

NiasBarat 33,04 33,82 33,95 49,14 49,38

• Sumber: BPS Kab/Kota

  141 Lampiran 2

  

Data Realisasi DAU Kab/Kota

Provinsi Sumatera Utara (Miliar Rupiah)

Kabupaten/ Kota Tahun 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

  

Asahan 479,30 523,90 628,97 733,67 795,35

Dairi 327,84 374,32 451,18 512,48 532,72

DeliSerdang 793,14 889,01 1.100,01 1.260,76 1.363,81

Karo 393,39 441,83 546,29 625,82 686,83

LabuhanBatu 315,31 370,86 461,64 520,46 561,48

Langkat 597,47 716,05 847,50 982,66 1.039,65

MandailingNatal 398,48 455,69 541,11 625,54 692,13

Nias 151,15 250,94 289,61 319,07 347,70

Simalungun 634,43 696,56 865,41 977,81 1.077,99

TapanuliSelatan 334,74 376,20 454,32 517,34 572,10

TapanuliTengah 313,96 343,96 422,61 491,01 541,49

TapanuliUtara 369,28 408,81 487,35 552,46 596,84

TobaSamosir 280,44 310,47 387,62 423,29 495,38

Binjai 293,54 336,98 416,97 477,55 526,07

Medan 828,70 967,53 1.153,79 1.270,24 1.393,50

PematangSiantar 313,94 352,72 429,63 492,12 519,44

Sibolga 220,08 265,54 292,87 338,51 371,81

TanjungBalai 241,92 275,73 313,73 369,25 387,26

TebingTinggi 228,06 262,13 307,64 368,59 385,03

PadangSidimpuan 270,13 308,20 364,92 423,25 470,35

PakpakBharat 167,78 198,40 232,99 273,60 313,59

NiasSelatan 277,89 319,19 378,61 422,94 455,53

HumbangHasundutan 279,89 313,66 376,85 440,92 486,88

SerdangBedagai 404,84 458,45 554,25 628,90 698,41

Samosir 243,04 283,20 331,41 384,76 441,62

Batubara 337,60 386,18 452,23 517,73 591,72

LabuhanBatuUtara 303,66 346,96 400,60 457,71 503,05

LabuhanBatuSelatan 249,09 266,92 334,51 400,57 450,15

PadangLawas 241,11 249,72 331,75 371,65 408,04

PadangLawasUtara 243,57 262,77 348,06 387,95 418,73

GunungSitoli 95,77 251,78 305,73 356,04 383,52

NiasUtara 108,56 231,86 267,28 294,07 355,35

NiasBarat 63,07 193,67 227,86 251,63 279,67

Lampiran 3 Data Realisasi PAD Kab/Kota Provinsi Sumatera Utara (Miliar Rupiah) Kabupaten/ Kota Tahun 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

• Sumber: BPS Kab/Kota

  142

  

Asahan 23,59 26,61 37,89 54,04 59,13

Dairi 9,10 14,50 20,51 37,32 53,53

DeliSerdang 115,88 300,13 380,06 430,65 433,89

Karo 26,50 31,15 46,83 48,17 67,34

LabuhanBatu 35,66 48,92 50,00 66,56 109,90

Langkat 32,44 38,64 59,28 68,97 114,87

MandailingNatal 12,46 25,00 45,00 47,00 50,00

Nias 7,85 10,09 24,01 30,53 44,64

Simalungun 38,76 58,44 61,25 63,74 96,39

TapanuliSelatan 33,42 38,13 56,28 64,09 95,59

TapanuliTengah 16,00 16,71 21,14 23,21 55,36

TapanuliUtara 9,37 13,53 14,30 36,14 63,70

TobaSamosir 14,85 12,03 18,91 19,01 23,41

Binjai 23,26 33,04 35,18 46,14 71,97

Medan 486,83 829,79 1.416,23 1.758,79 1.384,25

PematangSiantar 24,09 43,65 60,03 71,61 90,48

Sibolga 16,65 17,84 21,10 30,59 52,92

TanjungBalai 17,65 22,15 31,86 32,04 34,41

TebingTinggi 26,27 27,99 28,94 36,27 47,48

PadangSidimpuan 16,20 19,75 23,16 23,68 58,73

PakpakBharat 4,38 5,04 6,27 9,34 15,39

NiasSelatan 74,07 70,00 75,01 75,54 76,56

HumbangHasundutan 14,20 15,36 14,75 15,54 27,04

SerdangBedagai 26,42 35,71 39,27 50,37 74,76

Samosir 20,99 20,57 14,06 20,01 23,77

Batubara 18,04 16,32 17,59 35,36 29,45

LabuhanBatuUtara 5,14 7,81 13,06 23,21 32,40

LabuhanBatuSelatan 8,37 17,08 18,73 30,29 32,58

PadangLawas 13,01 18,13 28,18 25,90 34,25

PadangLawasUtara 9,06 10,08 12,80 15,84 22,17

GunungSitoli 2,50 4,00 7,89 10,38 16,16

NiasUtara 1,63 2,00 5,00 12,50 11,24

NiasBarat 1,00 2,00 6,00 8,20 8,73

Lampiran 4 Data Realisasi Belanja Modal Kab/Kota Provinsi Sumatera Utara (Miliar Rupiah) Kabupaten/ Kota Tahun 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

• Sumber: BPS Kab/Kota

  143

  

Asahan 76,16 143,83 178,86 271,75 424,19

Dairi 43,14 67,90 92,92 142,12 155,71

DeliSerdang 227,21 345,70 415,16 528,87 553,71

Karo 48,72 136,49 178,86 196,77 217,98

LabuhanBatu 125,76 115,45 204,12 226,69 209,03

Langkat 116,56 197,72 263,69 365,77 329,54

MandailingNatal 58,98 81,17 79,84 114,29 205,41

Nias 128,45 150,86 180,36 202,04 158,10

Simalungun 156,40 164,30 335,42 143,49 135,47

TapanuliSelatan 129,91 130,51 199,59 215,53 222,35

TapanuliTengah 68,78 127,96 117,58 295,21 301,46

TapanuliUtara 29,22 113,81 168,31 172,11 146,46

TobaSamosir 89,23 65,16 109,90 154,09 154,10

Binjai 65,66 84,89 153,62 196,69 153,28

Medan 384,11 538,56 873,18 1.201,67 783,88

PematangSiantar 69,18 108,51 99,13 159,09 102,89

Sibolga 44,78 106,14 66,91 121,78 105,88

TanjungBalai 78,69 80,56 117,83 185,91 193,83

TebingTinggi 39,73 72,34 20,43 104,33 163,58

PadangSidimpuan 22,74 52,67 51,99 98,76 104,03

PakpakBharat 42,80 65,80 74,00 129,94 144,43

NiasSelatan 127,83 120,45 189,52 363,94 118,14

HumbangHasundutan 67,43 100,93 137,67 210,17 243,95

SerdangBedagai 144,81 145,22 148,71 150,62 183,44

Samosir 44,84 95,11 99,68 186,89 200,35

Batubara 100,23 156,67 185,60 238,53 149,12

LabuhanBatuUtara 95,75 105,53 109,61 148,10 213,67

LabuhanBatuSelatan 98,81 146,18 145,20 224,47 238,75

PadangLawas 136,20 162,42 170,20 172,61 103,21

PadangLawasUtara 92,14 135,90 190,43 193,43 171,95

GunungSitoli 22,26 142,20 152,79 165,70 179,75

NiasUtara 40,84 140,97 103,77 120,36 141,53

NiasBarat 60,15 154,75 156,94 170,36 153,33

Lampiran 5 Data Realisasi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kab/Kota Provinsi Sumatera Utara (%) Kabupaten/ Kota Tahun 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

• Sumber: BPS Kab/Kota

  144

  

Asahan 4,97 5,37 5,51 5,79 5,89

Dairi 4,82 4,93 5,03 5,05 5,03

DeliSerdang 5,98 5,15 4,99 9,22 7,51

Karo 5,03 5,74 5,09 4,95 5,09

LabuhanBatu 5,15 5,72 6,09 5,99 5,22

Langkat 5,74 6,57 6,45 5,61 5,12

MandailingNatal 6,01 6,10 6,27 6,37 6,52

Nias 6,75 6,98 6,27 6,35 5,47

Simalungun 5,12 5,96 6,06 5,26 5,33

TapanuliSelatan 5,06 6,33 9,09 17,43 4,43

TapanuliTengah 5,05 5,10 5,11 5,18 5,04

TapanuliUtara 4,56 4,65 5,06 5,27 5,11

TobaSamosir 4,24 4,37 5,08 4,85 4,23

Binjai 5,29 5,56 6,06 6,07 5,83

Medan 7,16 7,79 7,66 5,36 6,08

PematangSiantar 5,85 6,80 6,64 5,75 6,34

Sibolga 5,04 5,62 5,75 5,96 5,89

TanjungBalai 5,76 6,02 6,22 5,94 5,78

TebingTinggi 6,04 6,18 5,75 6,01 5,45

PadangSidimpuan 5,81 5,88 5,90 5,80 5,17

PakpakBharat 5,77 5,98 6,12 5,91 5,92

NiasSelatan 4,12 4,29 5,18 4,66 4,32

HumbangHasundutan 4,08 4,15 5,72 5,79 5,32

SerdangBedagai 6,04 6,06 6,09 5,80 5,12

Samosir 5,09 5,18 6,05 6,10 5,95

Batubara 4,65 5,11 5,72 4,23 4,20

LabuhanBatuUtara 5,61 6,57 6,36 6,29 5,40

LabuhanBatuSelatan 5,68 6,21 6,33 6,05 5,33

PadangLawas 6,04 6,12 6,21 6,14 5,97

PadangLawasUtara 6,56 6,88 6,38 6,15 6,08

GunungSitoli 6,09 6,29 6,18 6,22 6,11

NiasUtara 6,23 6,75 6,21 6,34 5,56

NiasBarat 5,32 5,95 6,55 5,17 5,12

Lampiran 6 Data Realisasi Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Kab/Kota Provinsi Sumatera Utara Kabupaten/ Kota Tahun 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

• Sumber: BPS Kab/Kota

  145

  

Asahan 65,54 65,87 66,23 66,58 67,51

Dairi 66,21 66,62 66,95 67,15 67,91

DeliSerdang 68,20 68,15 67,19 71,39 70,93

Karo 70,54 71,12 71,40 70,62 71,84

LabuhanBatu 66,71 67,88 68,64 59,45 59,06

Langkat 63,18 65,77 65,18 65,17 68,00

MandailingNatal 60,60 61,60 62,26 62,91 63,42

Nias 53,66 55,55 55,50 57,43 57,98

Simalungun 68,89 69,03 69,79 69,28 70,89

TapanuliSelatan 64,02 65,14 65,95 66,75 65,22

TapanuliTengah 65,01 65,16 65,43 65,64 65,16

TapanuliUtara 68,01 69,24 69,83 70,50 69,70

TobaSamosir 71,01 71,39 71,89 72,36 71,79

Binjai 69,41 70,85 71,54 72,02 71,55

Medan 77,36 77,54 77,78 76,00 78,26

PematangSiantar 73,51 73,61 73,51 73,05 75,83

Sibolga 68,05 69,17 69,71 70,45 70,13

TanjungBalai 64,03 64,13 64,89 64,40 64,05

TebingTinggi 69,49 70,84 70,34 71,85 71,13

PadangSidimpuan 70,21 71,08 71,38 70,68 70,28

PakpakBharat 62,77 63,11 63,88 64,73 65,06

NiasSelatan 55,21 55,50 55,97 56,78 57,78

HumbangHasundutan 63,23 64,06 64,54 64,92 65,59

SerdangBedagai 64,25 65,28 66,14 67,11 66,78

Samosir 65,28 65,81 66,31 66,80 65,80

Batubara 62,62 63,95 64,45 64,06 64,10

LabuhanBatuUtara 67,05 67,37 66,84 66,28 65,15

LabuhanBatuSelatan 64,84 65,77 67,06 67,12 66,59

PadangLawas 62,98 63,28 64,05 64,02 65,50

PadangLawasUtara 64,52 65,22 65,15 65,13 65,05

GunungSitoli 62,67 63,71 63,34 65,25 64,91

NiasUtara 56,75 57,53 56,87 58,29 59,18

NiasBarat 54,66 55,43 56,20 56,58 57,54

  Lampiran 7 Hasil Uji One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov NPar Tests

One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test

  Unstandardized Residual N

  165 a,b

  Normal Parameters Mean ,0000000 Std. Deviation 3,74179267 Most Extreme Absolute ,065 Differences Positive ,040

  Negative -,065 Test Statistic ,065 c

  Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) ,087 a. Test distribution is Normal.

  b. Calculated from data.

  c. Lilliefors Significance Correction.

  146

Lampiran 8 Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Regression a Variables Entered/Removed

  Variables Variables Model Entered Removed Method

  1 PE, DAK, PAD, . Enter

  b

  DAU, BM

  a. Dependent Variable: IPM b. All requested variables entered.

  b Model Summary

  Adjusted R Std. Error of the Model R R Square Square Estimate

  a

  1 ,661 ,437 ,419 3,80017

  a. Predictors: (Constant), PE, DAK, PAD, DAU, BM

  b. Dependent Variable: IPM

  a ANOVA Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. b

  1 Regression 1780,746 5 356,149 24,662 ,000 Residual 2296,166 159 14,441 Total 4076,912 164

  a. Dependent Variable: IPM

  b. Predictors: (Constant), PE, DAK, PAD, DAU, BM

  a Coefficients

  Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.

  1 (Constant) 66,081 1,696 38,954 ,000 DAK -,122 ,024 -,446 -5,202 ,000 DAU ,018 ,002 ,869 8,305 ,000 PAD ,010 ,003 ,456 3,305 ,001 BM -,019 ,006 -,535 -3,288 ,001 PE ,020 ,251 ,005 ,081 ,936

  147

Coefficients a

Collinearity Diagnostics a

  148

  BM PE

  a. Dependent Variable: IPM a. Dependent Variable: IPM

  a. Dependent Variable: IPM

  Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation N Predicted Value 55,3007 81,2195 66,0778 3,29518 165 Residual -9,52624 8,11029 ,00000 3,74179 165 Std. Predicted Value -3,271 4,595 ,000 1,000 165 Std. Residual -2,507 2,134 ,000 ,985 165

  1 1 ,00 ,00 2 ,01 ,00 3 ,01 ,11 4 ,21 ,01 5 ,71 ,03 6 ,06 ,85

  Model Dimension Variance Proportions

  Model Collinearity Statistics

  1 1 4,846 1,000 ,00 ,00 ,00 ,00 2 ,938 2,273 ,00 ,00 ,00 ,12 3 ,113 6,556 ,04 ,11 ,15 ,14 4 ,047 10,148 ,00 ,30 ,84 ,02 5 ,039 11,188 ,02 ,42 ,01 ,70 6 ,018 16,511 ,94 ,17 ,00 ,01

  (Constant) DAK DAU PAD

  Index Variance Proportions

  Model Dimension Eigenvalue Condition

  

Collinearity Diagnostics

a

  VIF 1 (Constant) DAK ,483 2,071 DAU ,324 3,089 PAD ,186 5,370 BM ,134 7,465 PE ,953 1,049

  Tolerance

Residuals Statistics a

Lampiran 9 Hasil Uji Rank Spearman Nonparametric Correlations

Correlations

  abs_res DAK DAU PAD Spearman's rho abs_res Correlation Coefficient 1,000 ,080 -,002 ,096

  Sig. (2-tailed) . ,308 ,976 ,219 N 165 165 165 165

  DAK Correlation Coefficient ,080 1,000 ,616

  ,455 Sig. (2-tailed) ,308 . ,000 ,000 N 165 165 165 165

  DAU Correlation Coefficient -,002 ,616 1,000 ,777

  Sig. (2-tailed) ,976 ,000 . ,000 N 165 165 165 165

• ,777
• PAD Correlation Coefficient ,096 ,455

  1,000 Sig. (2-tailed) ,219 ,000 ,000 . N 165 165 165 165

  BM Correlation Coefficient ,005 ,585 ,641 ,542

• Sig. (2-tailed) ,947 ,000 ,000 ,000 N 165 165 165 165

  PE Correlation Coefficient -,009 -,094 -,085 -,053 Sig. (2-tailed) ,908 ,231 ,278 ,498 N 165 165 165 165

  IPM Correlation Coefficient -,013 -,005 ,424 ,409 Sig. (2-tailed) ,865 ,947 ,000 ,000 N 165 165 165 165 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

  149

Lampiran 10 Hasil Uji Autokorelasi a Variables Entered/Removed

  Variables Variables Model Entered Removed Method

  1 PE, DAK, PAD, . Enter

  b

  DAU, BM

  a. Dependent Variable: IPM b. All requested variables entered.

  b Model Summary

  Adjusted R Std. Error of the Model R R Square Square Estimate Durbin-Watson

  a

  1 ,661 ,437 ,419 3,80017 ,602

  a. Predictors: (Constant), PE, DAK, PAD, DAU, BM

  b. Dependent Variable: IPM

  a ANOVA Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. b

  1 Regression 1780,746 5 356,149 24,662 ,000 Residual

  2296,166 159 14,441 Total

  4076,912 164

  a. Dependent Variable: IPM

  b. Predictors: (Constant), PE, DAK, PAD, DAU, BM

  a Coefficients

  Standardized Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.

  1 (Constant) 66,081 1,696 38,954 ,000

  DAK -,122 ,024 -,446 -5,202 ,000 DAU ,018 ,002 ,869 8,305 ,000 PAD ,010 ,003 ,456 3,305 ,001 BM -,019 ,006 -,535 -3,288 ,001 PE ,020 ,251 ,005 ,081 ,936

  a. Dependent Variable: IPM

  a Residuals Statistics

  Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation N Predicted Value 55,3007 81,2195 66,0778 3,29518 165 Residual -9,52624 8,11029 ,00000 3,74179 165 Std. Predicted Value -3,271 4,595 ,000 1,000 165 Std. Residual -2,507 2,134 ,000 ,985 165

  a. Dependent Variable: IPM

  150

  151 Charts

Lampiran 11 Hasil Regresi Belanja Modal Descriptive Statistics

  Mean Std. Deviation N BM 169,9428 142,75045 165 DAK 48,5403 18,15146 165 DAU 457,0315 241,17731 165 PAD 75,6480 218,91382 165

Correlations

  BM DAK DAU PAD Pearson Correlation BM 1,000 ,546 ,771 ,884

  DAK ,546 1,000 ,655 ,340 DAU ,771 ,655 1,000 ,659 PAD ,884 ,340 ,659 1,000

  Sig. (1-tailed) BM . ,000 ,000 ,000 DAK ,000 . ,000 ,000 PAD ,000 ,000 ,000 .

  N BM 165 165 165 165 DAK 165 165 165 165 DAU 165 165 165 165 PAD 165 165 165 165

  a Variables Entered/Removed

  Variables Model Variables Entered Removed Method

  b

  1 PAD, DAK, DAU . Enter

  a. Dependent Variable: BM b. All requested variables entered.

  152

Model Summary b

  153

ANOVA

a Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

  b. Dependent Variable: BM

  Universitas Sumatera Utara

  a. Dependent Variable: BM

  13,587 12,492 1,088 ,278 -11,082 38,256 DAU ,115 ,029 ,194 3,964 ,000 ,058 ,172 ,771 ,298 ,116 ,355 2,813 PAD ,453 ,026 ,694 17,673 ,000 ,402 ,503 ,884 ,812 ,515 ,551 1,815

  VIF 1(Constant)

  Bound Zero-order Partial Part Tolerance

  Bound Upper

  Error Beta Lower

  B Std.

  95,0% Confidence Interval for B Correlations Collinearity Statistics

  Coefficients t Sig.

  Coefficients Standardized

  Model Unstandardized

  a. Predictors: (Constant), PAD, DAK, DAU

  1 Regression 2884233,485 3 961411,162 338,179 ,000

  ,863 ,860 53,31892 ,863 338,179 3 161 ,000 1,546

  a

  1 ,929

  Change F Change df1 df2 Sig. F Change

  Durbin-Watson R Square

  Estimate Change Statistics

  Square Std. Error of the

  Model R R Square Adjusted R

  b. Predictors: (Constant), PAD, DAK, DAU

  a. Dependent Variable: BM

  Total 3341941,544 164

  Residual 457708,059 161 2842,907

  b

Coefficients a

  

a

Coefficient Correlations

  Model PAD DAK DAU

  1 Correlations PAD 1,000 ,162 -,614 DAK ,162 1,000 -,610 DAU -,614 -,610 1,000

  Covariances PAD ,001 ,001 ,000 DAK ,001 ,095 -,005 DAU ,000 -,005 ,001

  a. Dependent Variable: BM

  a Collinearity Diagnostics

  Variance Proportions Condition

  Model Dimension Eigenvalue Index (Constant) DAK DAU PAD

  1 1 3,117 1,000 ,01 ,01 ,01 ,02 2 ,768 2,015 ,02 ,00 ,00 ,53 3 ,073 6,545 ,82 ,06 ,37 ,33 4 ,043 8,549 ,15 ,93 ,63 ,12 a. Dependent Variable: BM

  a Casewise Diagnostics

  Case Number Std. Residual BM Predicted Value Residual 5 3,658 424,19 229,1446 195,04541 a. Dependent Variable: BM

  a

Residuals Statistics

  Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation N Predicted Value 68,6832 1062,3411 169,9428 132,61519 165 Residual -157,49338 195,04541 ,00000 52,82900 165 Std. Predicted Value -,764 6,729 ,000 1,000 165 Std. Residual

• 2,954 3,658 ,000 ,991 165

  a. Dependent Variable: BM

  154

Lampiran 12 Hasil Regresi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Descriptive Statistics

  Mean Std. Deviation N PE 5,7954 1,20986 165 DAK 48,5403 18,15146 165 DAU 457,0315 241,17731 165 PAD 75,6480 218,91382 165 BM 169,9428 142,75045 165

Correlations

  PE DAK DAU PAD BM Pearson Correlation PE 1,000 ,016 ,118 ,139 ,177

  DAK ,016 1,000 ,655 ,340 ,546 DAU ,118 ,655 1,000 ,659 ,771 PAD ,139 ,340 ,659 1,000 ,884 BM ,177 ,546 ,771 ,884 1,000

  Sig. (1-tailed) PE . ,417 ,066 ,037 ,012 DAK ,417 . ,000 ,000 ,000 DAU ,066 ,000 . ,000 ,000 PAD ,037 ,000 ,000 . ,000 BM ,012 ,000 ,000 ,000 .

  N PE 165 165 165 165 165 DAK 165 165 165 165 165 DAU 165 165 165 165 165 PAD 165 165 165 165 165 BM 165 165 165 165 165

  a Variables Entered/Removed

  Variables Model Variables Entered Removed Method

  1 BM, DAK, DAU, . Enter

  b

  PAD

  a. Dependent Variable: PE b. All requested variables entered.

  155

Model Summary b

  95,0% Confidence Interval for B Correlations Collinearity Statistics B Std. Error Beta Lower Bound Upper Bound Zero-order Partial Part Tolerance

  Universitas Sumatera Utara

  b. Predictors: (Constant), BM, DAK, DAU, PAD

  a. Dependent Variable: PE

  Total 240,055 164

  Residual 228,872 160 1,430

  b

  1 Regression 11,183 4 2,796 1,954 ,104

  ANOVA a Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

  a. Dependent Variable: PE

  DAK -,011 ,007 -,164 -1,484 ,140 -,025 ,004 ,016 -,117 -,115 ,490 2,043 DAU ,000 ,001 ,040 ,295 ,768 -,001 ,002 ,118 ,023 ,023 ,324 3,088 PAD -,001 ,001 -,180 -1,012 ,313 -,003 ,001 ,139 -,080 -,078 ,187 5,335 BM ,003 ,002 ,395 1,892 ,060 ,000 ,007 ,177 ,148 ,146 ,137 7,301

  VIF 1 (Constant) 5,740 ,281 20,411 ,000 5,185 6,296

  156

  Model R R Square Adjusted R

  Coefficients Standardized

  Model Unstandardized

  

Coefficients

a

  b. Dependent Variable: PE

  a. Predictors: (Constant), BM, DAK, DAU, PAD

  ,047 ,023 1,19602 ,047 1,954 4 160 ,104 1,443

  a

  1 ,216

  Change F Change df1 df2 Sig. F Change

  Durbin-Watson R Square

  Estimate Change Statistics

  Square Std. Error of the

  Coefficients t Sig.

Coefficient Correlations a

  157

  1 1 4,012 1,000 ,01 ,00 ,00 ,00 ,00 2 ,831 2,197 ,02 ,01 ,00 ,13 ,00 3 ,074 7,375 ,85 ,05 ,26 ,19 ,02 4 ,046 9,298 ,07 ,27 ,72 ,08 ,32 5 ,037 10,453 ,05 ,68 ,02 ,59 ,65

  a. Dependent Variable: PE

  Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation N Predicted Value 5,1587 7,4492 5,7954 ,26113 165 Residual -2,08924 11,52158 ,00000 1,18134 165 Std. Predicted Value -2,438 6,334 ,000 1,000 165 Std. Residual -1,747 9,633 ,000 ,988 165

  Case Number Std. Residual PE Predicted Value Residual 49 9,633 17,43 5,9084 11,52158 a. Dependent Variable: PE

  

Casewise Diagnosticsa

  a. Dependent Variable: PE

  (Constant) DAK DAU PAD BM

  Model BM DAK DAU PAD

  Index Variance Proportions

  Model Dimension Eigenvalue Condition

  

Collinearity Diagnostics

a

  a. Dependent Variable: PE

  Covariances BM 3,125E-6 -4,484E-6 -3,587E-7 -1,415E-6 DAK -4,484E-6 5,408E-5 -2,218E-6 2,671E-6 DAU -3,587E-7 -2,218E-6 4,630E-7 -6,674E-8 PAD -1,415E-6 2,671E-6 -6,674E-8 9,711E-7

  DAK -,345 1,000 -,443 ,369 DAU -,298 -,443 1,000 -,100 PAD -,812 ,369 -,100 1,000

  1 Correlations BM 1,000 -,345 -,298 -,812

Residuals Statistics a

Lampiran 13 Hasil Regresi Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) Descriptive Statistics

  Mean Std. Deviation N

  IPM 66,0778 4,98590 165 DAK 48,5403 18,15146 165 DAU 457,0315 241,17731 165 PAD 75,6480 218,91382 165 BM 169,9428 142,75045 165 PE 5,7954 1,20986 165

Correlations

  IPM DAK DAU PAD BM PE Pearson Correlation

  IPM 1,000 -,013 ,466 ,405 ,296 ,069 DAK -,013 1,000 ,655 ,340 ,546 ,016 DAU ,466 ,655 1,000 ,659 ,771 ,118 PAD ,405 ,340 ,659 1,000 ,884 ,139 BM ,296 ,546 ,771 ,884 1,000 ,177 PE ,069 ,016 ,118 ,139 ,177 1,000

  Sig. (1-tailed)

  IPM . ,435 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,189 DAK ,435 . ,000 ,000 ,000 ,417 DAU ,000 ,000 . ,000 ,000 ,066 PAD ,000 ,000 ,000 . ,000 ,037 BM ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 . ,012 PE ,189 ,417 ,066 ,037 ,012 .

  N

  IPM 165 165 165 165 165 165 DAK 165 165 165 165 165 165 DAU 165 165 165 165 165 165 PAD 165 165 165 165 165 165 BM 165 165 165 165 165 165 PE 165 165 165 165 165 165

  a Variables Entered/Removed

  Variables Model Variables Entered Removed Method

  1 PE, DAK, PAD, . Enter

  b

  DAU, BM

  a. Dependent Variable: IPM b. All requested variables entered.

  158

Model Summary b

  Residual 2296,166 159 14,441

  Universitas Sumatera Utara

  a. Dependent Variable: IPM

  DAK -,122 ,024 -,446 -5,202 ,000 -,169 -,076 -,013 -,381 -,310 ,483 2,071 DAU ,018 ,002 ,869 8,305 ,000 ,014 ,022 ,466 ,550 ,494 ,324 3,089 PAD ,010 ,003 ,456 3,305 ,001 ,004 ,017 ,405 ,254 ,197 ,186 5,370 BM -,019 ,006 -,535 -3,288 ,001 -,030 -,007 ,296 -,252 -,196 ,134 7,465 PE ,020 ,251 ,005 ,081 ,936 -,476 ,516 ,069 ,006 ,005 ,953 1,049

  VIF 1 (Constant) 66,081 1,696 38,954 ,000 62,730 69,431

  95,0% Confidence Interval for B Correlations Collinearity Statistics B Std. Error Beta Lower Bound Upper Bound Zero-order Partial Part Tolerance

  Standardized Coefficients t Sig.

  Model Unstandardized Coefficients

  

Coefficients

a

  b. Predictors: (Constant), PE, DAK, PAD, DAU, BM

  a. Dependent Variable: IPM

  Total 4076,912 164

  159

  Model R R Square Adjusted R

  1 Regression 1780,746 5 356,149 24,662 ,000

  

ANOVA

a Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

  b. Dependent Variable: IPM

  a. Predictors: (Constant), PE, DAK, PAD, DAU, BM

  ,437 ,419 3,80017 ,437 24,662 5 159 ,000 ,602

  a

  1 ,661

  Change F Change df1 df2 Sig. F Change

  Durbin-Watson R Square

  Estimate Change Statistics

  Square Std. Error of the

  b

  a Coefficient Correlations

  Model PE DAK PAD DAU BM

  1 Correlations PE 1,000 ,117 ,080 -,023 -,148 DAK ,117 1,000 ,374 -,443 -,356 PAD ,080 ,374 1,000 -,101 -,813 DAU -,023 -,443 -,101 1,000 -,291 BM -,148 -,356 -,813 -,291 1,000

  Covariances PE ,063 ,001 6,294E-5 -1,267E-5 ,000 DAK ,001 ,001 2,766E-5 -2,253E-5 -4,757E-5 PAD 6,294E-5 2,766E-5 9,866E-6 -6,864E-7 -1,450E-5 DAU -1,267E-5 -2,253E-5 -6,864E-7 4,677E-6 -3,579E-6 BM ,000 -4,757E-5 -1,450E-5 -3,579E-6 3,226E-5

  a. Dependent Variable: IPM

  a

Collinearity Diagnostics

  Variance Proportions Mod Condition el Dimension Eigenvalue Index (Constant) DAK DAU PAD BM PE 1 1 4,846 1,000 ,00 ,00 ,00 ,00 ,00 ,00 2 ,938 2,273 ,00 ,00 ,00 ,12 ,01 ,00

  3 ,113 6,556 ,04 ,11 ,15 ,14 ,01 ,11 4 ,047 10,148 ,00 ,30 ,84 ,02 ,21 ,01 5 ,039 11,188 ,02 ,42 ,01 ,70 ,71 ,03 6 ,018 16,511 ,94 ,17 ,00 ,01 ,06 ,85 a. Dependent Variable: IPM

  a

Residuals Statistics

  Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation N Predicted Value 55,3007 81,2195 66,0778 3,29518 165 Residual -9,52624 8,11029 ,00000 3,74179 165 Std. Predicted Value -3,271 4,595 ,000 1,000 165 Std. Residual -2,507 2,134 ,000 ,985 165

  a. Dependent Variable: IPM

Lampiran 14 Hasil Regresi Panel Belanja Modal Model Summary

  Model R R Square Adjusted R

  Square Std. Error of the

  Estimate 1 ,963

  a

  ,927 ,907 43,58837

  a. Predictors: (Constant), D_NiasBarat, D_NiasUtara, D_GunungSitoli, D_PadangLawasUtara, D_TapanuliTengah, D_TapanuliSelatan, D_Simalungun, D_PadangLawas, D_LabuhanBatuSelatan, D_LabuhanBatuUtara, D_Batubara, D_Samosir, D_SerdangBedagai, D_HumbangHasundutan, D_Nias, D_MandailingNatal, D_Langkat, D_LabuhanBatu, D_Karo, D_DeliSerdang, D_Dairi, D_Asahan, D_NiasSelatan, D_PakpakBharat, D_PadangSidimpuan, D_TapanuliUtara, D_TanjungBalai, D_Sibolga, D_PematangSiantar, D_TobaSamosir, PAD, D_Binjai, DAK, D_TebingTinggi, DAU

  ANOVA a Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

  1 Regression 3096848,458 35 88481,385 46,570 ,000

  b

  Residual 245093,086 129 1899,946 Total 3341941,544 164

  a. Dependent Variable: BM

  b. Predictors: (Constant), D_NiasBarat, D_NiasUtara, D_GunungSitoli, D_PadangLawasUtara, D_TapanuliTengah, D_TapanuliSelatan, D_Simalungun, D_PadangLawas, D_LabuhanBatuSelatan, D_LabuhanBatuUtara, D_Batubara, D_Samosir, D_SerdangBedagai, D_HumbangHasundutan, D_Nias, D_MandailingNatal, D_Langkat, D_LabuhanBatu, D_Karo, D_DeliSerdang, D_Dairi, D_Asahan, D_NiasSelatan, D_PakpakBharat, D_PadangSidimpuan, D_TapanuliUtara, D_TanjungBalai, D_Sibolga, D_PematangSiantar, D_TobaSamosir, PAD, D_Binjai, DAK, D_TebingTinggi, DAU

  

Coefficients

a

  Model Unstandardized Coefficients

  Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta

  1 (Constant)

• 259,942 56,944 -4,565 ,000 DAK 2,034 ,428 ,259 4,754 ,000 DAU ,244 ,046 ,412 5,359 ,000 PAD ,504 ,048 ,773 10,454 ,000 D_Asahan 177,446 54,727 ,214 3,242 ,002 D_Dairi 139,475 54,824 ,168 2,544 ,012

  D_DeliSerdang 78,189 47,897 ,094 1,632 ,105 D_Karo 166,600 54,813 ,201 3,039 ,003 D_LabuhanBatu 191,845 53,475 ,231 3,588 ,000 D_Langkat 147,699 55,920 ,178 2,641 ,009 D_MandailingNatal 111,735 54,808 ,135 2,039 ,044 D_Nias 226,380 54,951 ,273 4,120 ,000 D_Simalungun 47,066 55,383 ,057 ,850 ,397 D_TapanuliSelatan 195,878 53,645 ,236 3,651 ,000 D_TapanuliTengah 193,202 54,473 ,233 3,547 ,001 D_TapanuliUtara 148,859 54,828 ,179 2,715 ,008 D_TobaSamosir 165,598 54,922 ,199 3,015 ,003 D_Binjai 214,202 55,963 ,258 3,828 ,000 D_PematangSiantar 166,310 54,724 ,200 3,039 ,003 D_Sibolga 212,117 56,301 ,255 3,768 ,000 D_TanjungBalai 254,509 56,618 ,307 4,495 ,000 D_TebingTinggi 191,461 55,854 ,231 3,428 ,001 D_PadangSidimpuan 161,667 55,987 ,195 2,888 ,005 D_PakpakBharat 210,005 55,910 ,253 3,756 ,000 D_NiasSelatan 163,973 53,334 ,198 3,074 ,003 D_HumbangHasundutan 230,231 55,584 ,277 4,142 ,000 D_SerdangBedagai 123,631 53,976 ,149 2,290 ,024 D_Samosir 210,475 55,348 ,254 3,803 ,000 D_Batubara 213,210 55,334 ,257 3,853 ,000 D_LabuhanBatuUtara 199,828 55,427 ,241 3,605 ,000 D_LabuhanBatuSelatan 252,537 55,250 ,304 4,571 ,000 D_PadangLawas 240,894 55,345 ,290 4,353 ,000 D_PadangLawasUtara 251,581 55,724 ,303 4,515 ,000 D_GunungSitoli 238,342 55,773 ,287 4,273 ,000 D_NiasUtara 199,539 55,573 ,240 3,591 ,000 D_NiasBarat 265,775 56,072 ,320 4,740 ,000

  a. Dependent Variable: BM

Lampiran 15 Hasil Regresi Panel Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Model Summary

  Model R R Square Adjusted R

  Square Std. Error of the

  Estimate 1 ,630

  a

  ,397 ,227 1,06352

  a. Predictors: (Constant), D_NiasBarat, D_NiasUtara, D_GunungSitoli, D_PadangLawasUtara, D_TapanuliTengah, D_TapanuliSelatan, D_Simalungun, D_PadangLawas, D_LabuhanBatuSelatan, BM, D_LabuhanBatu, D_NiasSelatan, D_Batubara, D_Nias, D_Karo, D_SerdangBedagai, D_HumbangHasundutan, D_Asahan, D_LabuhanBatuUtara, D_TanjungBalai, D_Binjai, D_TapanuliUtara, D_Langkat, D_Samosir, D_TobaSamosir, D_MandailingNatal, D_PematangSiantar, D_Dairi, D_PakpakBharat, D_DeliSerdang, D_Sibolga, D_TebingTinggi, D_PadangSidimpuan, DAK, DAU, PAD

  ANOVA a Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

  1 Regression 95,278 36 2,647 2,340 ,000

  b

  Residual 144,777 128 1,131 Total 240,055 164

  a. Dependent Variable: PE

  b. Predictors: (Constant), D_NiasBarat, D_NiasUtara, D_GunungSitoli, D_PadangLawasUtara, D_TapanuliTengah, D_TapanuliSelatan, D_Simalungun, D_PadangLawas, D_LabuhanBatuSelatan, BM, D_LabuhanBatu, D_NiasSelatan, D_Batubara, D_Nias, D_Karo, D_SerdangBedagai, D_HumbangHasundutan, D_Asahan, D_LabuhanBatuUtara, D_TanjungBalai, D_Binjai, D_TapanuliUtara, D_Langkat, D_Samosir, D_TobaSamosir, D_MandailingNatal, D_PematangSiantar, D_Dairi, D_PakpakBharat, D_DeliSerdang, D_Sibolga, D_TebingTinggi, D_PadangSidimpuan, DAK, DAU, PAD

  

Coefficients

a

  Model Unstandardized Coefficients

  Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta

  1 (Constant) 8,213 1,497 5,485 ,000

  DAK -,007 ,011 -,112 -,660 ,510 DAU ,001 ,001 ,103 ,421 ,675 PAD -,003 ,002 -,623 -2,154 ,033 BM ,003 ,002 ,408 1,609 ,110 D_Asahan -3,186 1,389 -,453 -2,294 ,023 D_Dairi -3,355 1,371 -,477 -2,448 ,016 D_DeliSerdang -1,885 1,181 -,268 -1,597 ,113 D_Karo -3,348 1,384 -,476 -2,418 ,017 D_LabuhanBatu -2,822 1,368 -,401 -2,063 ,041 D_Langkat -2,930 1,401 -,416 -2,092 ,038 D_MandailingNatal -2,101 1,359 -,299 -1,547 ,124 D_Nias -2,037 1,426 -,290 -1,428 ,156 D_Simalungun -2,945 1,355 -,419 -2,173 ,032 D_TapanuliSelatan -,017 1,375 -,002 -,012 ,990 D_TapanuliTengah -3,388 1,392 -,481 -2,433 ,016 D_TapanuliUtara -3,487 1,375 -,496 -2,535 ,012 D_TobaSamosir -3,796 1,386 -,539 -2,738 ,007 D_Binjai -2,768 1,441 -,393 -1,921 ,057 D_PematangSiantar -2,074 1,382 -,295 -1,500 ,136 D_Sibolga -2,743 1,447 -,390 -1,895 ,060 D_TanjungBalai -2,626 1,486 -,373 -1,767 ,080 D_TebingTinggi -2,444 1,423 -,347 -1,717 ,088 D_PadangSidimpuan -2,600 1,409 -,370 -1,845 ,067 D_PakpakBharat -2,393 1,437 -,340 -1,665 ,098 D_NiasSelatan -3,713 1,348 -,528 -2,754 ,007 D_HumbangHasundutan -3,568 1,444 -,507 -2,472 ,015 D_SerdangBedagai -2,561 1,343 -,364 -1,906 ,059 D_Samosir -2,775 1,424 -,394 -1,948 ,054 D_Batubara -3,832 1,426 -,545 -2,688 ,008 D_LabuhanBatuUtara -2,460 1,419 -,350 -1,734 ,085 D_LabuhanBatuSelatan -2,676 1,453 -,380 -1,841 ,068 D_PadangLawas -2,430 1,446 -,345 -1,680 ,095 D_PadangLawasUtara -2,186 1,463 -,311 -1,494 ,138 D_GunungSitoli -2,308 1,454 -,328 -1,587 ,115 D_NiasUtara -2,095 1,422 -,298 -1,473 ,143 D_NiasBarat -2,861 1,482 -,407 -1,930 ,056

  a. Dependent Variable: PE

Lampiran 16 Hasil Regresi Panel Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) Model Summary

  Model R R Square Adjusted R

  Square Std. Error of the

  Estimate 1 ,981

  a

  ,962 ,951 1,10543

  a. Predictors: (Constant), D_NiasBarat, PE, D_SerdangBedagai, D_Binjai, D_TebingTinggi, D_PadangSidimpuan, D_Langkat, D_LabuhanBatuSelatan, D_Samosir, D_PakpakBharat, D_Sibolga, D_TanjungBalai, D_LabuhanBatu, D_LabuhanBatuUtara, D_Simalungun, D_Asahan, D_PadangLawas, D_GunungSitoli, D_NiasUtara, D_MandailingNatal, D_Karo, D_PematangSiantar, D_TapanuliTengah, D_Nias, D_HumbangHasundutan, D_PadangLawasUtara, D_Dairi, D_DeliSerdang, D_TapanuliUtara, D_Medan, D_Batubara, D_TobaSamosir, D_NiasSelatan, BM, DAK, DAU, PAD

  ANOVA a Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

  1 Regression 3921,719 37 105,992 86,738 ,000

  b

  Residual 155,192 127 1,222 Total 4076,912 164

  a. Dependent Variable: IPM

  b. Predictors: (Constant), D_NiasBarat, PE, D_SerdangBedagai, D_Binjai, D_TebingTinggi, D_PadangSidimpuan, D_Langkat, D_LabuhanBatuSelatan, D_Samosir, D_PakpakBharat, D_Sibolga, D_TanjungBalai, D_LabuhanBatu, D_LabuhanBatuUtara, D_Simalungun, D_Asahan, D_PadangLawas, D_GunungSitoli, D_NiasUtara, D_MandailingNatal, D_Karo, D_PematangSiantar, D_TapanuliTengah, D_Nias, D_HumbangHasundutan, D_PadangLawasUtara, D_Dairi, D_DeliSerdang, D_TapanuliUtara, D_Medan, D_Batubara, D_TobaSamosir, D_NiasSelatan, BM, DAK, DAU, PAD

  

Coefficients

a

  Model Unstandardized Coefficients

  Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta

  1 (Constant) 60,368 1,044 57,818 ,000

  DAK ,029 ,012 ,104 2,419 ,017 DAU ,005 ,001 ,237 3,839 ,000 PAD -,001 ,002 -,031 -,417 ,677 BM -,003 ,002 -,078 -1,216 ,226 PE ,225 ,092 ,055 2,445 ,016 D_Asahan ,490 ,782 ,017 ,627 ,532 D_Dairi 2,220 ,775 ,077 2,864 ,005 D_DeliSerdang 1,086 ,936 ,037 1,160 ,248 D_Karo 6,049 ,779 ,209 7,764 ,000 D_LabuhanBatu -,406 ,745 -,014 -,545 ,587 D_Langkat -1,432 ,849 -,049 -1,686 ,094 D_MandailingNatal -3,436 ,758 -,119 -4,532 ,000 D_Nias -8,314 ,765 -,287 -10,866 ,000 D_Simalungun 2,102 ,908 ,072 2,315 ,022 D_TapanuliTengah ,356 ,781 ,012 ,455 ,650 D_TapanuliUtara 4,499 ,778 ,155 5,782 ,000 D_TobaSamosir 7,257 ,787 ,250 9,216 ,000 D_Binjai 7,012 ,784 ,242 8,947 ,000 D_Medan 10,782 1,429 ,372 7,545 ,000 D_PematangSiantar 9,421 ,747 ,325 12,604 ,000 D_Sibolga 5,963 ,783 ,206 7,616 ,000 D_TanjungBalai ,782 ,797 ,027 ,981 ,328 D_TebingTinggi 6,975 ,766 ,241 9,106 ,000 D_PadangSidimpuan 6,627 ,770 ,229 8,604 ,000 D_PakpakBharat ,188 ,757 ,006 ,248 ,805 D_NiasSelatan -8,527 ,843 -,294 -10,111 ,000 D_HumbangHasundutan ,415 ,784 ,014 ,529 ,598 D_SerdangBedagai ,120 ,767 ,004 ,156 ,876 D_Samosir 1,905 ,753 ,066 2,530 ,013 D_Batubara -,631 ,790 -,022 -,798 ,426 D_LabuhanBatuUtara 1,982 ,739 ,068 2,681 ,008 D_LabuhanBatuSelatan 2,211 ,759 ,076 2,913 ,004 D_PadangLawas -,008 ,752 ,000 -,011 ,992 D_PadangLawasUtara ,936 ,749 ,032 1,250 ,214 D_GunungSitoli ,073 ,752 ,003 ,097 ,923 D_NiasUtara -6,445 ,754 -,222 -8,552 ,000 D_NiasBarat -7,297 ,793 -,252 -9,198 ,000

  a. Dependent Variable: IPM