BBNI Masih Belum Lepas dari Tekanan Perlambatan 20180507 NHKS Company Report (Bahasa)
Hold Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 8,125 Consensus Price (IDR) 9,941 TP to Consensus Price
- 18.3% vs. Last Price +8.7%
Finance Bank Bloomberg
Pertumbuhan dua digit pada laba bersih dipengaruhi oleh kenaikan net fee income sebesar 15,8% dari Rp1,6 triliun menjadi Rp1,8 triliun. Tekanan Margin Berlanjut BBNI mencatakan net interest margin sebesar 5,5% pada 1Q18 yang relatif stabil sejak 3Q17. Pada 2018, kami memperkirakan bahwa net interest margin dapat terkontraksi hingga 5,0% yang dipicu oleh : 1) melambatnya pertumbuhan kredit yang menunjukkan masih rendahnya toleransi risiko; 2) tren cost of deposit yang hanya mengalami penurunan tipis dari 3,3% pada 2Q15 menjadi 3,0% pada 1Q18. Pada 1Q18 penyaluran kredit tercatat sebesar Rp439,5 triliun yang naik 10,8% y-y, tetapi turun 0,4% q-q. Penurunan kinerja secara kuartalan dipengaruhi oleh penurunan nilai penyaluran kredit segmen korporasi dan UKM sebesar 1,3% q-q. Segmen korporasi dan UKM menyumbang 82,2% total penyaluran kredit oleh BBNI. Dengan tren ini kami perkirakan pertumbuhan kredit BBNI pada 2018 melambat menjadi 10,8% dari 12,2%.
Target Harga Rp8.125 Kami menggunakan asumsi forward P/B sebesar 1,2x (rata-rata 4 tahun terakhir) sebagai basis metode valuasi. Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/B 2018E sebesar 1,4x (Vs. 1,3x saat ini). Kami memperkirakan ketidakpastian pasar keuangan global membatasi ruang gerak valuasi BBNI.
18.05 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn) 162.78 Foreign Ownership 21.1%
40.9 Outstanding sh.(mn) 18,649 Market Cap (IDR bn) 139,399 Market Cap (USD mn) 9,831 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)
Last Price (IDR) 7,475 Price date as of May 04, 2018 52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 10,175 / 6,350 Free float (%)
Shares data
BBNI IJ
- 62 21 797 6202, ext:214
BVPS (IDR) 4,786 5,411 5,956 6,576 Net Interest Margin 6.0% 5.4% 5.0% 4.9% Loan/Deposits
Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
9.3%
Abs. Ret. -24.5% -9.7% -19.4% 12.8% Rel. Ret. -16.9% -5.0% -8.5%
12M
3M
1M
Share Price Performance YTD
Reuters BBNI.JK Raphon Prima
Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Company Report | May 07, 2018 Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) Masih Belum Lepas dari Tekanan Perlambatan Pertumbuhan Laba 1Q18 Dipengaruhi Net Fee Income BBNI mencetak interest income sebesar Rp12,7 triliun (+9,6% y-y) dan net interest income sebesar Rp8,5 triliun (+9,5%). Laba bersih tumbuh 13,0% dari Rp3,2 triliun pada 1Q17 menjadi Rp3,6 triliun pada 1Q18.
growth 18.6% 10.1% 8.7% 10.0%
Interest Income 43,768 48,178 52,392 57,641
88.2% 83.5% 83.2% 83.0%
Operating Revenue 41,299 45,212 48,087 52,577 Net profit 11,339 13,616 15,253 16,926 EPS (IDR) 608 730 818 908
EPS growth 25.1% 20.1% 12.0% 11.0%
Dividend yield 3.9% 2.6% 3.8% 4.2% Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research
ROIC 14.8% 14.0% 13.2% 13.1% P/E 9.1x 13.6x 9.1x 8.2x P/BV 1.2x 1.8x 1.3x 1.1x DPS (IDR) 213 256 286 318
ROA
13.5% 14.3% 14.4% 14.5%
ROE
3.0% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2%
NPL
2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% BDO Unibank 10,823 53,371 5.8% 4.1% 9.7% 20.3x 1.9x 0.9% Metropolitan Bank 6,344 41,612 0.7% 3.8% 9.1% 14.6x 1.3x 1.2% Philippine Island Bank 8,470 38,084 1.7% 3.4% 13.0% 17.6x 2.2x 1.8%
Philippine
Singapore
Bank of Ayudhya 9,010 64,128 8.6% 3.7% 10.7% 12.1x 1.2x 2.2%
Bangkok Bank 11,301 94,446 6.0% 2.3% 8.5% 10.7x 0.9x 3.4% Siam Commercial 14,077 92,841
Thailand
CIMB 15,838 124,711 25.6% 2.5% 9.6% 13.4x 1.3x 3.7% Malayan Banking 29,140 188,433 11.5% 1.9% 10.6% 14.5x 1.6x 5.2% Hong Leong 5,412 50,939 5.9% 1.6% 9.8% 13.1x 1.2x 2.0%
Malaysia
DBS 55,625 387,334 8.3% 1.8% 9.8% 16.0x 1.5x 4.9% UOB 36,393 268,287 13.5% 1.8% 10.7% 13.7x 1.4x 3.4% OCBC 41,289 340,370 23.2% 1.7% 11.2% 13.1x 1.4x 2.7%
BBNI 9,831 52,203 21.1% 5.5% 15.2% 9.8x 1.4x 3.5% BBRI 34,645 82,886 10.7% 7.6% 18.5% 13.6x 2.4x 2.9% BMRI 28,234 82,772 49.5% 5.5% 13.0% 18.8x 2.3x 1.6% BBCA 42,806 49,981 12.9% 6.7% 18.9% 26.1x 4.6x 0.9%
Company Report
Company Market Cap (USD mn) Total Asset (USD mn) Net Profit Growth (LTM) Net Interest Margin (LTM) ROE (LTM) P/E (LTM) P/BV (LTM) Dividend Yield
Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research
Bank di Indonesia masih mampu mempertahankan NIM di atas 5% meskipun sedang menghadapi tekanan penurunan suku bunga acuan oleh bank sentral. Keunggulan NIM
ini mampu ditranslasikan menjadi ROE yang lebih tinggi.
Bank di Indonesia mampu mencetak pertumbuhan laba bersih di kisaran 10%-20% yang mampu disaingi oleh beberapa bank di Malaysia dan Singapura, seperti OCBC, CIMB dan Malayan Banking. Namun, tiga bank tersebut memiliki aset yang jauh lebih besar dibandingkan dengan aset bank di Indonesia.Daya Saing Perbankan Indonesia di ASEAN Industri perbankan di Indonesia menjadi prioritas investasi utama di ASEAN. Suku bunga kredit yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan bank lain di ASEAN merupakan faktor utama keunggulan industri perbankan di Indonesia.
ASEAN Banks Sekilas tentang BBNI BBNI merupakan bank terbesar keempat di Indonesia setelah BBRI, BMRI, dan BBCA serta menguasai 9,2% pangsa pasar kredit di Indonesia. Fokus penyaluran kreditnya adalah segmen korporasi yang menyumbangkan 50% dari total kredit. BBNI sebagai bank milik pemerintah memiliki eksposur penyaluran kredit yang cukup signifikan, yakni 20% dari total kredit kepada debitur yang memiliki keterkaitan dengan pemerintah, seperti perusahaan BUMN.
May 07, 2018
- 13.0% 3.3% 11.8% 10.5x 1.2x 4.2%
Company Report
May 07, 2018
Performance Highlights Interest Income (IDR bn) | 1Q15 - 1Q18 Net Profit (IDR bn) | 1Q15 - 1Q18
Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research
Gross Loan (IDR bn) | 1Q15 - 1Q18 Deposit (IDR bn) | 1Q15 - 1Q18
Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research
Loan Composition Loan Yield, Cost of Deposit, NIM | 1Q15 - 1Q18
Source: Company, NHKS research Source: Company, NHKS research
Company Report
May 07, 2018
Multiple Valuation Forward P/B band | Last 4 years Dynamic Forward P/B band | Last 4 years
Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research
Rating and target price update Target Price Revision Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus
11/17/2017 Buy 9,550 (Dec 2018) 7,675 8,169 +24.4% +16.9% 02/14/2018 Hold 10,825 (Dec 2018) 9,525 9,765 +13.6% +10.9% 05/04/2018 Hold 8,125 (Dec 2018) 7,475 9,941 +8.7% 18.3%
- Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg
Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price
Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings
1. Period: End of year target price
2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication : Greater than +15%
Buy : -15% to +15% Hold : Less than -15% Sell
Company Report
May 07, 2018
Summary of Financials
DISCLAIMER
INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET
This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This
report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling
offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information here is obtained
from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees,
and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person
as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for
errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia BBNI Summary Last Price (IDR) 7,475Target Price (IDR) 8,125 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Rating: Hold ROE 13.5% 14.3% 14.4% 14.5% ROA 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% ROIC 14.8% 14.0% 13.2% 13.1% Opera ti ng ROA 7.4% 6.9% 6.4% 6.3% in IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E Pre-Provi s i on ROA 4.0% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4%Interest Income 43,768 48,178 52,392 57,641 Non-Interes t Income/Op. Rev 27.4% 29.4% 28.7% 28.6%
Growth (% y/y) 18.6% 10.1% 8.7% 10.0% Cos t/Income 46.5% 46.1% 46.0% 46.0%
Interes t Expens es (13,773) (16,240) (18,091) (20,080) Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn) 3,969 4,766 5,339 5,924
Net Interest Income 29,995 31,938 34,301 37,562 Di vi dend Yi el d (%) 3.9% 2.6% 3.8% 4.2%
Net Interest Margin 6.0% 5.4% 5.0% 4.9% Pa yout Ra ti o (%) 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%
Net Fee Income 6,473 7,314 7,726 8,460 Equi ty/As s ets 14.8% 14.2% 14.0% 13.9%
Tra di ng Income 1,288 1,590 1,855 1,951 Loa n/Depos i ts 88.2% 83.5% 83.2% 83.0%
Other Opera ti ng Income 3,544 4,370 4,205 4,605 Loa n/As s ets 65.2% 62.2% 61.6% 62.0%
Operating Revenue 41,299 45,212 48,087 52,577 NPL 3.0% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2%
Opera ti ng Expens es (19,217) (20,863) (22,128) (24,195) Loa n Los s Res erves /Loa ns 4.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0%
Pre-provisioning OP (PPOP) 22,082 24,349 25,959 28,383 Depos i ts /Li a bi l i ti es 86.8% 86.8% 86.1% 86.7%
Provi s i on for Impa i rment (7,853) (7,126) (6,691) (7,005) CASA/Depos i ts 64.6% 63.1% 64.3% 64.4%
EBT 14,303 17,165 19,181 21,283 Ti me Depos i ts /Depos i ts 35.4% 36.9% 35.7% 35.6%
Income Ta x (2,893) (3,395) (3,830) (4,250) Pa r Va l ue (IDR) 375 375 375 375
Non-control l i ng Interes t (71) (154) (97) (108) Tota l Sha res (mn) 18,649 18,649 18,649 18,649
Net Profit 11,339 13,616 15,253 16,926 Sha re Pri ce (IDR) 5,525 9,900 7,475 7,475
Growth (% y/y) 25.1% 20.1% 12.0% 11.0% Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn) 103.0 184.6 139.4 139.4
in IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Ca s h 11,168 11,578 12,737 12,881 Pri ce /Ea rni ngs 9.1x 13.6x 9.1x 8.2x
Pl a cement i n Ba nks 70,107 82,629 93,588 105,788 Pri ce /Book Va l ue 1.2x 1.8x 1.3x 1.1x
Net Loa ns 376,595 426,790 473,905 531,983 Pri ce/Op. Revenue 2.5x 4.1x 2.9x 2.7x
Inves tment 88,493 117,292 139,122 150,813 PE/EPS Growth 0.4x 0.7x 0.8x 0.8x
Fi xed As s et 21,972 22,805 23,541 24,686 EV/Opera ti ng Revenue 3.2x 4.9x 3.8x 3.6x
Other As s ets 34,698 48,237 50,438 58,189 EV/PPOP 6.1x 9.2x 7.1x 6.6x Total Assets 603,032 709,330 793,331 884,340 EV (IDR bn) 134,155 223,559 183,804 187,515Depos i ts 445,769 528,275 587,523 660,719 Op. Revenue CAGR (3-Yr) 14.6% 12.5% 10.9% 8.4%
Borrowi ng 40,193 48,204 54,748 58,520 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) 7.8% 8.1% 18.9% 14.3%
Other l i a bi l i ti es 27,816 31,948 39,981 42,460 Ba s i c EPS (IDR) 608 730 818 908
Total Liabilities 513,778 608,427 682,252 761,698 Di l uted EPS (IDR) 608 730 818 908
Ca pi ta l Stock 9,055 9,055 9,055 9,055 BVPS (IDR) 4,786 5,411 5,956 6,576
Reta i ned Ea rni ngs 50,798 60,314 71,205 82,792 Op. Revenue PS (IDR) 2,215 2,424 2,579 2,819
Shareholders' Equity 89,254 100,903 111,079 122,642 DPS (IDR) 213 256 286 318
in IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E
Net Income 11,339 13,616 15,253 16,926 DCF (IDR bn)Deprec & Provi s i on 7,415 6,454 1,718 2,388 NOPAT 17,616 19,534 20,775 22,715
Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l (1,325) (4,103) (5,168) (17,554) +Depr./Amor. 7,415 6,454 1,718 2,388
CFO 17,429 15,967 11,803 1,760 -Chg. i n Loa n (63,523) (64,270) (47,715) (59,245)
Net Cha nges i n Loa n (63,523) (64,270) (47,715) (59,245) -Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p. (1,325) (4,103) (5,168) (17,554)
CFI (92,923) (87,544) (71,358) (73,221) (Unl evered) FCFF (39,816) (42,386) (30,390) (51,696)
Di vi dends Pa i d (2,267) (3,969) (4,766) (5,339) WACCNet Cha nges i n Depos i t 61,516 80,558 59,248 73,196 Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.) 9.5% 7.3% 7.8% 8.1%
CFF 70,153 85,174 60,310 71,605 Cos t of Equi ty (COE) 10.4% 11.6% 10.5% 10.7%Net Changes in Cash (5,341) 13,597 755 144 WACC (%) 10.2% 10.7% 9.7% 9.9%
RIM Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%) 4.0% 3.7% 4.6% 4.5% Res i dua l Income (IDR bn) 3,162 3,272 4,664 5,024By Geography % Shareholders % Equi ty Cha rge 8,177 10,345 10,589 11,902
Indones i a 78.9 Republ i c of Indones i a 58.8 EVA Uni ted Sta tes 8.8 Va ngua rd Group 2.0 Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn) 108,328 129,447 149,108 165,827 Luxembourg 3.7 Bl a ckrock 1.7 ROIC-WACC (%) 6.1% 4.4% 4.2% 3.8% Irel a nd 1.7 Prudenti a l Pl c 1.2 EVA (IDR bn) 6,617 5,682 6,245 6,228CASH FLOW STATEMENT DCF, RIM & EVA OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY May 4, 2018 Dec 2018
Analyst: Raphon Prima