Analisis Integrasi Dan Volatilitas Harga Beras Regional Asean Terhadap Pasar Beras Indonesia

Lampiran 4.1. Ekspor Beras Beberapa Negara di Asia Tenggara

  (000 ton) Tahun Rata- Negara/ Regional

  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Rata Indonesia 0,7 0,9 42,3 1,0 1,6 0,9 2,6 0,3 0,4 0,9 735,7

  72 Philipina

  13

  13

  

1

  1

  1

  1

  2

  3 Thailand 7.552 10.137 7.274 7.376 9.557 10.011 8.570 9.047 10.647 6.945 8.000 8.647 Vietnam 3.795 4.295 5.174 4.705 4.522 4.649 5.950 6.734 7.000 7.717 7.400 5.631 Asean 11.348 14.446 12.490 12.082 14.094 14.662 14.524 15.782 17.648 14.665 16.136 14.352 Total Dunia 27.540 27.253 28.957 29.102 31.922 29.575 29.398 31.569 36.221 39.060 37.420 31.638 Sumber: BPS (2014) dan USDA (2013)

Lampiran 4.2. Impor Beras Beberapa Negara di Asia Tenggara (000 ton)

  Tahun Rata- Negara/Regional

  Rata 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Indonesia 1.429 237 190 438 1.396 289 250 688 2.744 1.927 244 894 Philippina 1.300 1.100 1.890 1.791 1.900 2.500 2.000 2.400 1.200 1.500 1.500 1.735

• Thailand

  2

  3 8 300 300 200 600 400 165 Vietnam 40 300 320 350 450 300 500 400 500 100 200 315 Asean 2.769 1.637 2.400 2.581 3.749 3.097 3.050 3.788 4.644 4.127 2.344 3.108

  Total Dunia 27.540 27.253 28.957 29.102 31.922 29.575 29.398 31.569 36.221 39.060 37.420 31.638 Sumber: BPS (2014) dan USDA (2013)

  Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 4.3. Koefisien Spesialisasi Perdagangan Beras di Asia Tenggara

  Tahun Rata- Negara/ Regional

  Rata 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Indonesia (0,999) (0,992) (0,635) (0,996) (0,998) (0,994) (0,979) (0,999) (1,000) (0,999) 0,502 (0,826) Philipina (1,000) (0,977) (1,000) (1,000) (0,986) (0,999) (0,999) (0,999) (0,998) (0,997) (1,000) (0,996)

  Thailand 1,000 1,000 1,000 0,999 0,999 0,998 0,932 0,936 0,963 0,841 0,905 0,961 Vietnam 0,979 0,869 0,884 0,862 0,819 0,879 0,845 0,888 0,867 0,974 0,947 0,892 Sumber: BPS (2014) dan USDA (2013), diolah

Lampiran 4.4. Ekspor Beras Negara Asia Tenggara Tahun 2005-2013

  dalam USD

  Tahun Negara/ Komoditas

  Rata-Rata Regional 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Indonesia Beras 8.657.507 531.437 471.501 864.652 1.814.312 451.624 836.730 1.186.729 1.191.376 1.946.823

  Serealia 20.678.360 8.151.942 32.705.046 47.611.412 22.360.482 19.916.615 10.327.186 20.267.488 11.925.064 23.107.292

Philipina Beras 28.872 134.249 535.020 3.084.134 607.925 851.095 2.161.993 1.267.701 1.800.885 1.057.613

Serealia 184.641 747.677 1.073.829 4.040.878 1.437.187 928.782 2.205.396 1.420.378 3.115.209 1.516.913 Thailand Beras 2.321.681.918 2.579.059.721 3.470.015.325

• 6.107.572.102 5.046.463.708 5.341.082.404 6.507.473.018 4.632.269.629 4.481.906.885 Serealia 2.358.550.222 2.657.415.921 3.592.411.336 6.341.027.779 5.302.412.803 5.496.742.212 6.686.701.568 7.157.654.519 4.633.608.834
• Vietnam Beras 1.408.378.694 1.275.895.486 2.895.938.232
• 1.490.179.695 2.666.061.830 3.249.501.657

  1.855.136.513 Serealia 1.857.844.280

• Dunia Beras 10.045.790.856 10.397.796.817 13.189.634.241 21.049.566.346 18.368.146.063 19.153.703.749 18.555.239.255 32.541.041.049 24.270.727.794 15.822.839.618

  Serealia 44.208.763.497 49.520.463.187 72.196.133.627 104.030.396.312 76.796.298.459 80.787.333.709 106.922.183.599 167.251.130.810 149.100.312.242 76.351.653.199

  Sumber: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (2014), diolah

  Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 4.5. Revealed Competitive Advantage (RCA) Beras Negara Asia Tenggara Tahun 2005-2013

  Negara/ Regional Tahun

  Rata-Rata 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Indonesia 1,84 0,31 0,08 0,09 0,34 0,10 0,47 0,30 0,61 0,46 Philippines 0,69 0,86 2,73 3,77 1,77 3,87 5,65 4,59 3,55 2,76 Thailand 4,33 4,62 5,29 4,76 3,98 4,10 5,61 3,33 4,67 Vietnam 4,39 4,75 5,46 4,93 4,18 4,22 4,66

  Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Manila Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  Sep-05 352 374 10,228 4,277 107 5,042 Oct-05 343 365 10,101 4,139 103 4,879 Nov-05 346 368 10,063 4,150 104 4,892 Dec-05 353 375 9,860 4,150 104 4,892

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Biro Statistik Pertanian Philipina (2014) Keterangan :

  

3)

(Rp.

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Philipina 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  7 Jan-03 302 324 8,876 3,305 83 3,896 Feb-03 299 321 8,905 3,285 82 3,873 Mar-03 296 318 8,908 3,261 82 3,844 Apr-03 311 333 8,675 3,315 83 3,908 May-03 317 339 8,279 3,241 81 3,820 Jun-03 317 339 8,285 3,242 81 3,822 Jul-03 322 344 8,505 3,355 84 3,954 Aug-03 315 337 8,535 3,304 83 3,895 Sep-03 304 326 8,389 3,164 79 3,729 Oct-03 296 318 8,495 3,127 78 3,686 Nov-03 289 311 8,537 3,086 77 3,638 Dec-03 290 312 8,465 3,071 77 3,620 Jan-04 294 316 8,441 3,095 77 3,648 Feb-04 293 315 8,447 3,090 77 3,642 Mar-04 298 320 8,575 3,173 79 3,740 Apr-04 307 329 8,606 3,261 82 3,844 May-04 311 333 9,210 3,501 88 4,126 Jun-04 320 342 9,415 3,646 91 4,297 Jul-04 327 349 9,350 3,695 92 4,356 Aug-04 329 351 9,328 3,706 93 4,368 Sep-04 316 338 9,328 3,579 89 4,219 Oct-04 302 324 9,170 3,399 85 4,006 Nov-04 300 322 9,016 3,334 83 3,930 Dec-04 308 330 9,290 3,492 87 4,116 Jan-05 315 337 9,207 3,553 89 4,189 Feb-05 326 348 9,244 3,670 92 4,327 Mar-05 336 358 9,367 3,806 95 4,487 Apr-05 353 375 9,532 4,024 101 4,743

  6

  5

  4

  3

  2

  1

  May-05 361 383 9,481 4,083 102 4,813 Jun-05 359 381 9,616 4,116 103 4,851 Jul-05 360 382 9,800 4,195 105 4,945 Aug-05 365 387 9,977 4,307 108 5,077

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Manila

  

3)

(Rp.

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  Feb-08 539 561 9,179 5,604 140 6,605 Mar-08 572 594 9,194 5,914 148 6,971 Apr-08 672 694 9,209 6,845 171 8,068 May-08 687 709 9,291 7,039 176 8,297

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Biro Statistik Pertanian Philipina (2014) Keterangan :

  Oct-08 542 564 10,048 6,117 153 7,211 Nov-08 518 540 11,711 6,779 169 7,991 Dec-08 532 554 11,325 6,725 168 7,927

  Jun-08 768 790 9,296 7,792 195 9,185 Jul-08 734 756 9,163 7,380 185 8,699 Aug-08 662 684 9,149 6,706 168 7,905 Sep-08 574 596 9,341 6,021 151 7,097

  Oct-07 479 501 9,107 5,013 125 5,909 Nov-07 490 512 9,264 5,196 130 6,125 Dec-07 512 534 9,334 5,436 136 6,408 Jan-08 529 551 9,406 5,634 141 6,641

  2

  Jun-07 445 467 9,363 4,827 121 5,689 Jul-07 457 479 9,019 4,768 119 5,620 Aug-07 458 480 9,091 4,815 120 5,676 Sep-07 464 486 9,142 4,896 122 5,771

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Philipina 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  Oct-06 384 406 9,192 4,178 104 4,925 Nov-06 383 405 9,130 4,148 104 4,889 Dec-06 389 411 9,092 4,183 105 4,930 Jan-07 398 420 9,071 4,262 107 5,024

  Jun-06 374 396 9,363 4,161 104 4,905 Jul-06 381 403 9,137 4,130 103 4,868 Aug-06 386 408 9,091 4,163 104 4,907 Sep-06 385 407 9,142 4,166 104 4,911

  7 Jan-06 363 385 9,481 4,102 103 4,835 Feb-06 372 394 9,481 4,183 105 4,930 Mar-06 381 403 9,158 4,142 104 4,882 Apr-06 382 404 8,931 4,057 101 4,782 May-06 380 402 8,981 4,057 101 4,783

  6

  5

  4

  3

  Feb-07 407 429 9,066 4,335 108 5,110 Mar-07 417 439 9,151 4,463 112 5,261 Apr-07 426 448 9,103 4,526 113 5,335 May-07 436 458 8,981 4,567 114 5,383

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Manila

  

3)

(Rp.

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  Feb-11 660 682 8,913 6,078 152 7,164 Mar-11 664 686 8,761 6,007 150 7,081 Apr-11 673 695 8,651 6,459 161 7,613 May-11 677 699 8,556 6,435 161 7,585

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Biro Statistik Pertanian Philipina (2014) Keterangan :

  Oct-11 672 694 8,895 6,628 166 7,812 Nov-11 679 701 9,015 6,773 169 7,984 Dec-11 678 700 9,088 6,809 170 8,026

  Jun-11 674 696 8,564 6,415 160 7,561 Jul-11 684 706 8,533 6,470 162 7,627 Aug-11 693 715 8,532 6,547 164 7,717 Sep-11 682 704 8,766 6,620 166 7,804

  Oct-10 643 665 8,928 6,386 160 7,528 Nov-10 640 662 8,938 6,368 159 7,507 Dec-10 640 662 9,024 6,424 161 7,572 Jan-11 647 669 9,036 6,045 151 7,126

  2

  Jun-10 615 637 9,164 6,288 157 7,412 Jul-10 618 640 9,049 6,244 156 7,360 Aug-10 634 656 8,972 6,338 158 7,471 Sep-10 640 662 8,976 6,390 160 7,532

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Philipina 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  Oct-09 585 607 9,480 6,205 155 7,314 Nov-09 589 611 9,470 6,238 156 7,353 Dec-09 601 623 9,458 6,346 159 7,481 Jan-10 617 639 9,275 6,379 159 7,520

  Jun-09 606 628 10,207 6,860 171 8,086 Jul-09 597 619 10,111 6,704 168 7,902 Aug-09 584 606 9,978 6,495 162 7,656 Sep-09 571 593 9,702 6,208 155 7,317

  7 Jan-09 559 581 11,167 6,941 174 8,181 Feb-09 604 626 11,853 7,867 197 9,273 Mar-09 604 626 11,850 7,871 197 9,277 Apr-09 604 626 11,025 7,347 184 8,660 May-09 613 635 10,393 7,049 176 8,309

  6

  5

  4

  3

  Feb-10 624 646 9,348 6,487 162 7,647 Mar-10 633 655 9,174 6,462 162 7,617 Apr-10 644 666 9,027 6,458 161 7,613 May-10 622 644 9,183 6,360 159 7,496

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Manila

  

3)

(Rp.

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  Jun-13 707 729 9,882 7,655 191 9,023 Jul-13 728 750 10,073 8,007 200 9,438 Aug-13 750 772 10,573 8,612 215 10,152 Sep-13 776 798 11,346 9,501 238 11,199

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Biro Statistik Pertanian Philipina (2014) Keterangan :

  Oct-13 775 797 11,367 9,505 238 11,204 Nov-13 770 792 11,613 9,651 241 11,376 Dec-13 775 797 12,087 10,078 252 11,879

  Feb-13 732 754 9,687 7,751 194 9,136 Mar-13 730 752 9,709 7,747 194 9,131 Apr-13 722 744 9,724 7,686 192 9,060 May-13 722 744 9,761 7,713 193 9,092

  2

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Philipina 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  Jun-12 705 727 9,451 7,324 183 8,633 Jul-12 726 748 9,457 7,525 188 8,870 Aug-12 726 748 9,500 7,559 189 8,911 Sep-12 724 746 9,566 7,587 190 8,944

  7 Jan-12 682 704 9,109 6,863 172 8,090 Feb-12 698 720 9,026 6,945 174 8,186 Mar-12 698 720 9,165 7,048 176 8,308 Apr-12 701 723 9,176 7,085 177 8,352 May-12 701 723 9,290 7,165 179 8,446

  6

  5

  4

  3

  Oct-12 722 744 9,597 7,586 190 8,942 Nov-12 727 749 9,646 7,673 192 9,045 Dec-12 728 750 9,646 7,686 192 9,060 Jan-13 732 754 9,687 7,753 194 9,139

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Bangkok

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  

3)

(Rp. US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Thailand 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  1

  2

  3

  4

  5

  6

  7 Jan-03 185 207 8,876 2,270 57 2,675 Feb-03 182 204 8,905 2,247 56 2,648 Mar-03 180 202 8,908 2,232 56 2,631 Apr-03 179 201 8,675 2,170 54 2,558 May-03 181 203 8,279 2,109 53 2,485 Jun-03 186 208 8,285 2,155 54 2,540 Jul-03 182 204 8,505 2,167 54 2,555 Aug-03 179 201 8,535 2,141 54 2,524 Sep-03 180 202 8,389 2,125 53 2,504 Oct-03 182 204 8,495 2,159 54 2,545 Nov-03 180 202 8,537 2,153 54 2,538 Dec-03 186 208 8,465 2,186 55 2,577 Jan-04 198 220 8,441 2,287 57 2,696 Feb-04 200 222 8,447 2,305 58 2,717 Mar-04 226 248 8,575 2,553 64 3,009 Apr-04 229 251 8,606 2,592 65 3,056 May-04 222 244 9,210 2,677 67 3,156 Jun-04 220 242 9,415 2,706 68 3,190 Jul-04 221 243 9,350 2,702 68 3,185 Aug-04 228 250 9,328 2,764 69 3,258 Sep-04 225 247 9,328 2,729 68 3,217 Oct-04 230 252 9,170 2,743 69 3,233 Nov-04 245 267 9,016 2,835 71 3,342 Dec-04 262 284 9,290 3,066 77 3,614 Jan-05 269 291 9,207 3,126 78 3,684 Feb-05 271 293 9,244 3,154 79 3,718 Mar-05 273 295 9,367 3,209 80 3,782 Apr-05 276 298 9,532 3,293 82 3,882 May-05 273 295 9,481 3,243 81 3,823 Jun-05 263 285 9,616 3,186 80 3,755 Jul-05 257 279 9,800 3,179 79 3,748 Aug-05 261 283 9,977 3,278 82 3,863 Sep-05 264 286 10,228 3,378 84 3,981 Oct-05 265 287 10,101 3,351 84 3,950 Nov-05 257 279 10,063 3,260 82 3,843 Dec-05 257 279 9,860 3,201 80 3,773

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Worldbank (2014) Keterangan :

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  3)

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Bangkok

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  Oct-08 488 510 10,048 5,569 139 6,565 Nov-08 440 462 11,711 5,863 147 6,911 Dec-08 422 444 11,325 5,478 137 6,457

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Worldbank (2014) Keterangan :

  Jun-08 646 668 9,296 6,664 167 7,855 Jul-08 700 722 9,163 7,066 177 8,329 Aug-08 658 680 9,149 6,667 167 7,858 Sep-08 651 673 9,341 6,736 168 7,941

  2

  

3)

(Rp. US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Thailand 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  7 Jan-06 266 288 9,481 3,183 80 3,752 Feb-06 275 297 9,481 3,263 82 3,847 Mar-06 275 297 9,158 3,165 79 3,731 Apr-06 272 294 8,931 3,071 77 3,620 May-06 276 298 8,981 3,126 78 3,685 Jun-06 281 303 9,363 3,282 82 3,869 Jul-06 287 309 9,137 3,270 82 3,854 Aug-06 284 306 9,091 3,235 81 3,813 Sep-06 283 305 9,142 3,236 81 3,815 Oct-06 275 297 9,192 3,178 79 3,746 Nov-06 273 295 9,130 3,146 79 3,708 Dec-06 280 302 9,092 3,198 80 3,770 Jan-07 287 309 9,071 3,349 84 3,948 Feb-07 292 314 9,066 3,395 85 4,001 Mar-07 299 321 9,151 3,490 87 4,114 Apr-07 296 318 9,103 3,445 86 4,060 May-07 296 318 8,981 3,404 85 4,013 Jun-07 301 323 9,363 3,570 89 4,208 Jul-07 307 329 9,019 3,516 88 4,144 Aug-07 307 329 9,091 3,536 88 4,168 Sep-07 306 328 9,142 3,551 89 4,186 Oct-07 313 335 9,107 3,605 90 4,249 Nov-07 328 350 9,264 3,790 95 4,468 Dec-07 347 369 9,334 3,897 97 4,594 Jan-08 364 386 9,406 4,085 102 4,815

  6

  5

  4

  3

  Feb-08 440 462 9,179 4,689 117 5,527 Mar-08 486 508 9,194 5,120 128 6,036 Apr-08 532 554 9,209 5,554 139 6,546 May-08 593 615 9,291 6,164 154 7,266

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Bangkok

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  Feb-11 473 495 8,913 4,412 110 5,200 Mar-11 456 478 8,761 4,184 105 4,931 Apr-11 448 470 8,651 4,518 113 5,326 May-11 448 470 8,556 4,475 112 5,274

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Worldbank (2014) Keterangan :

  Oct-11 560 582 8,895 5,629 141 6,635 Nov-11 584 606 9,015 5,915 148 6,973 Dec-11 566 588 9,088 5,789 145 6,824

  Jun-11 474 496 8,564 4,696 117 5,535 Jul-11 507 529 8,533 4,962 124 5,849 Aug-11 534 556 8,532 5,192 130 6,120 Sep-11 556 578 8,766 5,512 138 6,497

  Oct-10 457 479 8,928 4,726 118 5,571 Nov-10 478 500 8,938 4,915 123 5,793 Dec-10 480 502 9,024 4,978 124 5,868 Jan-11 468 490 9,036 4,424 111 5,215

  2

  

3)

(Rp. US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Thailand 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  Feb-10 475 497 9,348 5,093 127 6,003 Mar-10 446 468 9,174 4,740 118 5,587 Apr-10 409 431 9,027 4,338 108 5,113 May-10 397 419 9,183 4,295 107 5,062

  Oct-09 413 435 9,480 4,572 114 5,389 Nov-09 460 482 9,470 5,017 125 5,914 Dec-09 515 537 9,458 5,531 138 6,520 Jan-10 511 533 9,275 5,390 135 6,354

  Jun-09 476 498 10,207 5,533 138 6,522 Jul-09 464 486 10,111 5,359 134 6,317 Aug-09 433 455 9,978 4,987 125 5,879 Sep-09 428 450 9,702 4,816 120 5,677

  7 Jan-09 464 486 11,167 5,877 147 6,928 Feb-09 473 495 11,853 6,314 158 7,443 Mar-09 472 494 11,850 6,298 157 7,423 Apr-09 446 468 11,025 5,610 140 6,612 May-09 454 476 10,393 5,397 135 6,362

  6

  5

  4

  3

  Jun-10 392 414 9,164 4,244 106 5,002 Jul-10 396 418 9,049 4,229 106 4,985 Aug-10 412 434 8,972 4,344 109 5,120 Sep-10 448 470 8,976 4,669 117 5,503

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Bangkok

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  Jun-13 484 506 9,882 5,448 136 6,421 Jul-13 454 476 10,073 5,245 131 6,182 Aug-13 425 447 10,573 5,176 129 6,101 Sep-13 428 450 11,346 5,556 139 6,549

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Manila

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari Worldbank (2014) Keterangan :

  Oct-13 423 445 11,367 5,508 138 6,493 Nov-13 405 427 11,613 5,409 135 6,376 Dec-13 399 421 12,087 5,535 138 6,524

  Feb-13 539 561 9,687 5,882 147 6,933 Mar-13 535 557 9,709 5,858 146 6,905 Apr-13 536 558 9,724 5,872 147 6,922 May-13 509 531 9,761 5,631 141 6,637

  2

  

3)

(Rp. US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Thailand 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  Jun-12 578 600 9,451 6,121 153 7,215 Jul-12 555 577 9,457 5,906 148 6,962 Aug-12 545 567 9,500 5,836 146 6,880 Sep-12 544 566 9,566 5,862 147 6,910

  7 Jan-12 534 556 9,109 5,515 138 6,500 Feb-12 529 551 9,026 5,423 136 6,393 Mar-12 544 566 9,165 5,641 141 6,650 Apr-12 551 573 9,176 5,705 143 6,724 May-12 553 575 9,290 5,794 145 6,830

  6

  5

  4

  3

  Oct-12 533 555 9,597 5,772 144 6,803 Nov-12 530 552 9,646 5,775 144 6,807 Dec-12 530 552 9,646 5,775 144 6,807 Jan-13 540 562 9,687 5,894 147 6,948

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Hanoi

  

3)

(Rp.

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  2

  3

  4

  5

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Vietnam 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  7 Jan-03 161 183 8,876 2,054 51 2,422 Feb-03 159 181 8,905 2,042 51 2,407 Mar-03 162 184 8,908 2,069 52 2,439 Apr-03 163 185 8,675 2,035 51 2,399 May-03 169 191 8,279 2,011 50 2,371 Jun-03 167 189 8,285 1,996 50 2,353 Jul-03 162 184 8,505 1,995 50 2,352 Aug-03 162 184 8,535 2,000 50 2,358 Sep-03 168 190 8,389 2,024 51 2,386 Oct-03 173 195 8,495 2,087 52 2,459 Nov-03 180 202 8,537 2,154 54 2,540 Dec-03 185 207 8,465 2,182 55 2,572 Jan-04 183 205 8,441 2,160 54 2,547 Feb-04 186 208 8,447 2,187 55 2,578 Mar-04 213 235 8,575 2,445 61 2,882 Apr-04 223 245 8,606 2,539 63 2,992 May-04 223 245 9,210 2,686 67 3,167 Jun-04 222 244 9,415 2,727 68 3,215 Jul-04 217 239 9,350 2,665 67 3,141 Aug-04 220 242 9,328 2,687 67 3,168 Sep-04 212 234 9,328 2,613 65 3,080 Oct-04 209 231 9,170 2,548 64 3,004 Nov-04 219 241 9,016 2,603 65 3,068 Dec-04 224 246 9,290 2,715 68 3,201 Jan-05 240 262 9,207 2,862 72 3,374 Feb-05 248 270 9,244 2,946 74 3,472 Mar-05 251 273 9,367 3,007 75 3,545 Apr-05 244 266 9,532 2,986 75 3,519 May-05 238 260 9,481 2,915 73 3,436 Jun-05 224 246 9,616 2,816 70 3,319 Jul-05 220 242 9,800 2,822 71 3,326 Aug-05 238 260 9,977 3,044 76 3,588 Sep-05 236 258 10,228 3,089 77 3,641 Oct-05 245 267 10,101 3,147 79 3,710 Nov-05 240 262 10,063 3,086 77 3,638 Dec-05 242 264 9,860 3,053 76 3,599 Jan-06 244 266 9,481 2,972 74 3,503

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari data Economic Research Service USDA (2013) Keterangan :

  1) Harga FOB Hanoi

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  3)

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  6

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  7 Feb-06 245 267 9,481 2,981 75 3,514 Mar-06 237 259 9,158 2,822 71 3,326 Apr-06 221 243 8,931 2,620 66 3,089 May-06 239 261 8,981 2,794 70 3,294 Jun-06 243 265 9,363 2,931 73 3,455 Jul-06 243 265 9,137 2,871 72 3,385 Aug-06 247 269 9,091 2,895 72 3,413 Sep-06 249 271 9,142 2,927 73 3,451 Oct-06 253 275 9,192 2,978 74 3,510 Nov-06 280 302 9,130 3,207 80 3,781 Dec-06 281 303 9,092 3,207 80 3,780 Jan-07 281 303 9,071 3,299 82 3,888 Feb-07 283 305 9,066 3,311 83 3,902 Mar-07 282 304 9,151 3,332 83 3,927 Apr-07 285 307 9,103 3,344 84 3,942 May-07 285 307 8,981 3,307 83 3,898 Jun-07 285 307 9,363 3,425 86 4,037 Jul-07 289 311 9,019 3,355 84 3,955 Aug-07 295 317 9,091 3,432 86 4,045 Sep-07 300 322 9,142 3,494 87 4,118 Oct-07 311 333 9,107 3,580 90 4,220 Nov-07 327 349 9,264 3,779 94 4,454 Dec-07 340 362 9,334 3,826 96 4,510 Jan-08 353 375 9,406 3,977 99 4,688

  

3)

(Rp.

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Vietnam 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  1

  2

  3

  4

  5

  6

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Hanoi

Feb-08 323 345 9,179 3,618 90 4,265 Mar-08 336 358 9,194 3,745 94 4,414 Apr-08 328 350 9,209 3,674 92 4,330 May-08 320 342 9,291 3,625 91 4,273 Jun-08 380 402 9,296 4,184 105 4,932 Jul-08 371 393 9,163 4,055 101 4,779 Aug-08 397 419 9,149 4,285 107 5,051

  Sep-08 423 445 9,341 4,607 115 5,430 Oct-08 375 397 10,048 4,439 111 5,233 Nov-08 313 335 11,711 4,373 109 5,155 Dec-08 318 340 11,325 4,300 108 5,069 Jan-09 328 350 11,167 4,359 109 5,138

Feb-09 325 347 11,853 4,557 114 5,372 Mar-09 331 353 11,850 4,633 116 5,461

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  3)

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  1) Harga FOB Hanoi

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari data Economic Research Service USDA (2013) Keterangan :

• *) Data yang dicetak tebal merupakan hasil Interpolasi

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

Dec-09 370 392 9,458 4,157 104 4,901 Jan-10 376 398 9,275 4,142 104 4,882

  Sep-10 418 440 8,976 4,399 110 5,186 Oct-10 432 454 8,928 4,503 113 5,308 Nov-10 454 476 8,938 4,705 118 5,546 Dec-10 460 482 9,024 4,800 120 5,658

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

   Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT) 3)

   Harga FOB Hanoi 2)

  Keterangan : 1)

  May-12 384 406 9,290 4,222 106 4,976 Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari data Economic Research Service USDA (2013)

  Jan-12 419 441 9,109 4,467 112 5,266 Feb-12 399 421 9,026 4,250 106 5,010 Mar-12 386 408 9,165 4,189 105 4,938 Apr-12 388 410 9,176 4,212 105 4,965

  Sep-11 508 530 8,766 5,096 127 6,007 Oct-11 516 538 8,895 5,236 131 6,172 Nov-11 511 533 9,015 5,255 131 6,194 Dec-11 465 487 9,088 4,876 122 5,748

  May-11 439 461 8,556 4,394 110 5,180 Jun-11 430 452 8,564 4,321 108 5,093 Jul-11 470 492 8,533 4,648 116 5,479 Aug-11 513 535 8,532 5,015 125 5,911

  Jan-11 440 462 9,036 4,175 104 4,921 Feb-11 431 453 8,913 4,037 101 4,759 Mar-11 418 440 8,761 3,855 96 4,544 Apr-11 440 462 8,651 4,447 111 5,242

  Feb-10 382 404 9,348 4,227 106 4,982 Mar-10 361 383 9,174 3,964 99 4,672 Apr-10 330 352 9,027 3,628 91 4,276 May-10 328 350 9,183 3,664 92 4,319 Jun-10 331 353 9,164 3,685 92 4,344 Jul-10 329 351 9,049 3,626 91 4,274 Aug-10 375 397 8,972 4,012 100 4,729

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Hanoi

  Nov-09 405 427 9,470 4,494 112 5,297

  Aug-09 333 355 9,978 3,992 100 4,706 Sep-09 330 352 9,702 3,865 97 4,556 Oct-09 358 380 9,480 4,052 101 4,777

  7 Apr-09 337 359 11,025 4,405 110 5,193 May-09 343 365 10,393 4,242 106 5,000 Jun-09 349 371 10,207 4,237 106 4,994 Jul-09 346 368 10,111 4,171 104 4,917

  6

  5

  4

  3

  2

  1

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Vietnam 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  

3)

(Rp.

• *) Data yang dicetak tebal merupakan hasil Interpolasi

  

Lanjutan Lampiran 4.6. Perkembangan Harga Beras Broken 25% (fob) Hanoi

  

3)

(Rp.

Bulan & Tahun Harga Harga Kurs

  1

  Sep-13 349 371 11,346 4,659 116 5,492 Oct-13 382 404 11,367 5,042 126 5,944 Nov-13 382 404 11,613 5,142 129 6,061 Dec-13 398 420 12,087 5,527 138 6,514

  4) Border price = (Harga CIF x Kurs)/1000 + Bea masuk Impor Harga Paritas = (Border Price + PPh) x 1,15

  Kurs Tengah Rupiah (Sumber: Bank Indonesia)

  3)

  2) Harga C I F = Harga Hanoi + insurance (22 USD/MT)

  1) Harga FOB Hanoi

  Sumber : diolah kembali oleh BKP dari data Economic Research Service USDA (2013) Keterangan :

  May-13 356 378 9,761 4,140 103 4,880 Jun-13 356 378 9,882 4,185 105 4,933 Jul-13 358 380 10,073 4,278 107 5,043 Aug-13 368 390 10,573 4,573 114 5,391

  2

  Jan-13 375 397 9,687 4,296 107 5,064 Feb-13 366 388 9,687 4,208 105 4,961 Mar-13 368 390 9,709 4,237 106 4,994 Apr-13 360 382 9,724 4,165 104 4,909

  US$) Border PPh 0,025 Harga Vietnam 1) CIF 2) Price 4) Paritas (US$/Ton) (US$/Ton) (Rp/kg) (Rp/Kg)

  7 Jun-12 373 395 9,451 4,183 105 4,931 Jul-12 374 396 9,457 4,195 105 4,945 Aug-12 406 428 9,500 4,516 113 5,323

  6

  5

  4

  3

  Sep-12 423 445 9,566 4,707 118 5,548 Oct-12 416 438 9,597 4,654 116 5,485 Nov-12 419 441 9,646 4,704 118 5,545 Dec-12 387 409 9,646 4,395 110 5,181

Lampiran 4.7. Hasil Unit Root RIDOM pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RIDOM has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 2 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.201661 0.9342 Test critical values: 1% level -3.481623

  5% level -2.883930 10% level -2.578788

• MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIDOM) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:25 Sample (adjusted): 2003M04 2013M12 Included observations: 129 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RIDOM(-1) -0.001820 0.009027 -0.201661 0.8405

D(RIDOM(-1)) 0.374679 0.087496 4.282253 0.0000

D(RIDOM(-2)) -0.218987 0.088266 -2.480986 0.0144

C 43.90657 47.50613 0.924230 0.3571

  R-squared 0.137495 Mean dependent var 40.74419 Adjusted R-squared 0.116795 S.D. dependent var 205.7755 S.E. of regression 193.3857 Akaike info criterion 13.39777 Sum squared resid 4674756. Schwarz criterion 13.48644 Log likelihood -860.1560 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.43380 F-statistic 6.642243 Durbin-Watson stat 2.064636 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000337

Lampiran 4.7. Hasil Unit Root RIDOM pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RIDOM has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.843215 0.0173 Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

  5% level -3.444756 10% level -3.147221

• MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIDOM) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:28 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RIDOM(-1) -0.132975 0.034600 -3.843215 0.0002 D(RIDOM(-1)) 0.359093 0.081606 4.400324 0.0000 C 234.4420 66.35033 3.533395 0.0006

@TREND(2003M01) 6.747602 1.755185 3.844383 0.0002

  R-squared 0.189810 Mean dependent var 40.43077 Adjusted R-squared 0.170520 S.D. dependent var 205.0075 S.E. of regression 186.7122 Akaike info criterion 13.32730 Sum squared resid 4392544. Schwarz criterion 13.41553 Log likelihood -862.2745 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.36315 F-statistic 9.839713 Durbin-Watson stat 1.894516 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000007

Lampiran 4.7. Hasil Unit Root RIPHI pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RIPHI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 0.158617 0.9689 Test critical values: 1% level -3.481217

  5% level -2.883753 10% level -2.578694

• MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIPHI) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:29 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RIPHI(-1) 0.001846 0.011639 0.158617 0.8742 D(RIPHI(-1)) 0.342627 0.085705 3.997762 0.0001 C 29.71947 79.15446 0.375462 0.7079 R-squared 0.116939 Mean dependent var 61.58462

  Adjusted R-squared 0.103032 S.D. dependent var 272.5581 S.E. of regression 258.1354 Akaike info criterion 13.96765 Sum squared resid 8462502. Schwarz criterion 14.03383 Log likelihood -904.8974 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.99454 F-statistic 8.408952 Durbin-Watson stat 1.912633 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000372

Lampiran 4.7. Hasil Unit Root RIPHI pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RIPHI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.370703 0.3931 Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

  5% level -3.444756 10% level -3.147221

• MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIPHI) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:31 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RIPHI(-1) -0.075786 0.031968 -2.370703 0.0193 D(RIPHI(-1)) 0.383476 0.085288 4.496267 0.0000 C 250.2788 114.8761 2.178684 0.0312

@TREND(2003M01) 4.331251 1.666612 2.598836 0.0105

  R-squared 0.161865 Mean dependent var 61.58462 Adjusted R-squared 0.141910 S.D. dependent var 272.5581 S.E. of regression 252.4792 Akaike info criterion 13.93082 Sum squared resid 8031966. Schwarz criterion 14.01905 Log likelihood -901.5034 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.96667 F-statistic 8.111272 Durbin-Watson stat 1.935640 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000056

Lampiran 4.7. Hasil Unit Root RITHA pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RITHA has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.553896 0.5032 Test critical values: 1% level -3.481217

  5% level -2.883753 10% level -2.578694

• MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RITHA) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:34 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RITHA(-1) -0.023765 0.015294 -1.553896 0.1227 D(RITHA(-1)) 0.220586 0.086067 2.562958 0.0115 C 143.5170 80.75823 1.777119 0.0779 R-squared 0.063184 Mean dependent var 29.81538

  Adjusted R-squared 0.048431 S.D. dependent var 280.2984 S.E. of regression 273.4266 Akaike info criterion 14.08275 Sum squared resid 9494786. Schwarz criterion 14.14892 Log likelihood -912.3787 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.10964 F-statistic 4.282812 Durbin-Watson stat 2.079540 Prob(F-statistic) 0.015850

Lampiran 4.7. Hasil Unit Root RITHA pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RITHA has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 2 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.864562 0.1776 Test critical values: 1% level -4.030729

  5% level -3.445030 10% level -3.147382

• MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RITHA) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:35 Sample (adjusted): 2003M04 2013M12 Included observations: 129 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RITHA(-1) -0.083542 0.029164 -2.864562 0.0049 D(RITHA(-1)) 0.208660 0.086639 2.408371 0.0175 D(RITHA(-2)) 0.224883 0.088017 2.554978 0.0118 C 256.8545 91.05070 2.821005 0.0056

  

@TREND(2003M01) 2.745753 1.219104 2.252272 0.0261

R-squared 0.131458 Mean dependent var 30.17829

Adjusted R-squared 0.103440 S.D. dependent var 281.3605

S.E. of regression 266.4114 Akaike info criterion 14.04595

Sum squared resid 8800904. Schwarz criterion 14.15679

Log likelihood -900.9637 Hannan-Quinn criter. 14.09099

F-statistic 4.691992 Durbin-Watson stat 1.928663

Prob(F-statistic) 0.001467

Lampiran 4.3. Hasil Unit Root RIVIE pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RIVIE has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.879464 0.7921 Test critical values: 1% level -3.480818

  5% level -2.883579 10% level -2.578601

• MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIVIE) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:37 Sample (adjusted): 2003M02 2013M12 Included observations: 131 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RIVIE(-1) -0.016001 0.018195 -0.879464 0.3808 C 99.49393 79.85002 1.246010 0.2150 R-squared 0.005960 Mean dependent var 31.23664 Adjusted R-squared -0.001746 S.D. dependent var 214.6537 S.E. of regression 214.8410 Akaike info criterion 13.59282 Sum squared resid 5954208. Schwarz criterion 13.63672 Log likelihood -888.3299 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.61066 F-statistic 0.773456 Durbin-Watson stat 1.639524 Prob(F-statistic) 0.380785

Lampiran 4.7. Hasil Unit Root RIVIE pada Level Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: RIVIE has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.462955 0.0478 Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

  5% level -3.444756 10% level -3.147221

• MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIVIE) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:39 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  RIVIE(-1) -0.152737 0.044106 -3.462955 0.0007 D(RIVIE(-1)) 0.238300 0.088074 2.705687 0.0078 C 418.4018 121.0334 3.456912 0.0007

@TREND(2003M01) 3.913028 1.196113 3.271454 0.0014

  

R-squared 0.110596 Mean dependent var 31.59231

Adjusted R-squared 0.089420 S.D. dependent var 215.4453

S.E. of regression 205.5872 Akaike info criterion 13.51990

Sum squared resid 5325529. Schwarz criterion 13.60814

Log likelihood -874.7937 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.55576

F-statistic 5.222659 Durbin-Watson stat 2.012504

Prob(F-statistic) 0.001972

Lampiran 4.8. Hasil Unit Root RIDOM pada First Difference Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: D(RIDOM) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.267163 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.481623

  5% level -2.883930 10% level -2.578788

• MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIDOM,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:45 Sample (adjusted): 2003M04 2013M12 Included observations: 129 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  D(RIDOM(-1)) -0.847301 0.102490 -8.267163 0.0000 D(RIDOM(-1),2) 0.221035 0.087345 2.530583 0.0126 C 35.00288 17.46742 2.003895 0.0472

R-squared 0.378617 Mean dependent var 0.844961

  

Adjusted R-squared 0.368754 S.D. dependent var 242.4742

S.E. of regression 192.6481 Akaike info criterion 13.38259

Sum squared resid 4676277. Schwarz criterion 13.44910

Log likelihood -860.1770 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.40961

F-statistic 38.38680 Durbin-Watson stat 2.066337

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Lampiran 4.8. Hasil Unit Root RIDOM pada First Difference Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: D(RIDOM) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.264825 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -4.030729

  5% level -3.445030 10% level -3.147382

• MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIDOM,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:47 Sample (adjusted): 2003M04 2013M12 Included observations: 129 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  

D(RIDOM(-1)) -0.851428 0.103018 -8.264825 0.0000

D(RIDOM(-1),2) 0.223530 0.087689 2.549141 0.0120

C 17.63864 35.06885 0.502972 0.6159

@TREND(2003M01) 0.261684 0.457868 0.571528 0.5687

  R-squared 0.380237 Mean dependent var 0.844961 Adjusted R-squared 0.365363 S.D. dependent var 242.4742 S.E. of regression 193.1650 Akaike info criterion 13.39548 Sum squared resid 4664089. Schwarz criterion 13.48416 Log likelihood -860.0087 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.43151 F-statistic 25.56332 Durbin-Watson stat 2.069243 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Lampiran 4.8. Hasil Unit Root RIPHI pada First Difference Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: D(RIPHI) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.804927 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.481217

  5% level -2.883753 10% level -2.578694

• MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIPHI,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:48 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  D(RIPHI(-1)) -0.654857 0.083903 -7.804927 0.0000 C 41.72563 23.06449 1.809085 0.0728

R-squared 0.322453 Mean dependent var 4.046154

Adjusted R-squared 0.317160 S.D. dependent var 311.1917

S.E. of regression 257.1505 Akaike info criterion 13.95247

Sum squared resid 8464178. Schwarz criterion 13.99658

Log likelihood -904.9102 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.97039

F-statistic 60.91689 Durbin-Watson stat 1.913099

Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Lampiran 4.8. Hasil Unit Root RIPHI pada First Difference Tahun 2003-2013

  Null Hypothesis: D(RIPHI) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.877021 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -4.030157

  5% level -3.444756 10% level -3.147221

• MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RIPHI,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/26/14 Time: 16:50 Sample (adjusted): 2003M03 2013M12 Included observations: 130 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  D(RIPHI(-1)) -0.664441 0.084352 -7.877021 0.0000 C -0.232504 45.87292 -0.005068 0.9960

@TREND(2003M01) 0.639242 0.604216 1.057968 0.2921

R-squared 0.328373 Mean dependent var 4.046154