Analisis Dampak ACFTA (ASEAN-China Free Trade Area) Terhadap Volume Dan Harga Karet Alam Bentuk Smoked Sheet Ekspor Indonesia
LAMPIRAN 1. VOLUME EKSPOR KARET ALAM BENTUK SMOKED SHEET INDONESIA KE ASEAN (kg)
SEBELUM ACFTA
Negara
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Phillipina
Vietnam
Myanmar
1996
13,576,820
0
0
0
0
0
13,576,820
1997
17,026,260
117,000
0
0
0
0
17,143,260
1998
8,142,332
76,000
0
0
0
0
8,218,332
1999
4,709,023
96,699
0
0
0
0
4,805,722
2000
3,287,041
0
19,200
0
0
0
3,306,241
2001
1,694,265
2,128
1,766
25,197
0
0
1,725,357
2002
5,051,966
170
0
0
73,224
0
5,127,362
2003
1,292,537
73,174
0
0
128,142
0
1495856
2004
2,185,058
23,490
0
504,000
153,854
0
2,866,402
2006
10,723,639
1,616,919
96,640
3,832,437
1,705,018
0
17,974,653
2007
15,146,829
564,512
113,615
1,280,962
1,498,085
0
18,604,003
2008
11,631,215
1,168,880
0
2,319,773
977,634
0
16,097,502
2009
4,100,544
684,075
0
31,460
1,694,590
0
6,510,669
2010
6,259,856
1,590,616
0
18,306
0
0
7,868,778
2011
6,474,520
1,312,262
0
60,480
0
0
7,847,262
2012
5,809,214
477,560
0
140,961
0
0
6,427,735
2013
5,357,668
562,228
0
40,320
30,600
0
5,990,816
SESUDAH ACFTA
Negara
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Phillipina
Vietnam
Myanmar
2005
9,514,751
42,998
0
2,195,586
861,315
100,800
12,715,450
LAMPIRAN 2. NILAI EKSPOR KARET ALAM BENTUK SMOKED SHEET INDONESIA KE ASEAN (US $)
SEBELUM ACFTA
Negara
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Phillipina
Vietnam
Myanmar
1996
18,694,092
0
0
0
0
0
18,694,092
1997
18,258,196
113,227
0
0
0
0
18,371,423
1998
5,397,419
48,929
0
0
0
0
5,446,348
1999
2,928,819
73,994
0
0
0
0
3,002,813
2000
2,250,323
0
12,960
0
0
0
2,263,283
2001
1,044,811
7,500
20,483
63,051
0
0
1,135,845
2002
3,499,429
1,767
0
0
61,325
0
3,562,521
2003
1,360,956
89,001
0
0
138,347
0
1,588,304
2004
2,988,875
12,441
0
584,061
206,501
0
3,791,878
2006
23,229,597
3,324,681
113,568
7,331,877
3,253,831
0
37,253,554
2007
32,545,997
1,209,202
227,230
2,445,317
3,022,468
0
39,450,214
2008
30,904,373
3,406,459
0
6,341,724
2,718,205
0
43,370,761
2009
8,825,649
1,125,691
0
61,010
2,050,875
0
12,063,225
2010
18,218,224
4,363,901
0
58,579
0
0
22,640,704
2011
31,423,814
5,169,732
0
307,642
0
0
36,901,188
2012
19,740,985
1,183,992
0
433,438
0
0
21,358,415
2013
11,402,605
986,858
0
111,485
95,778
0
12,596,726
SESUDAH ACFTA
Negara
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Phillipina
Vietnam
Myanmar
2005
13,205,054
55,695
0
2,913,555
1,039,044
114,408
17,327,756
Universitas Sumatera Utara
LAMPIRAN 3. VOLUME EKSPOR KARET ALAM BENTUK SMOKED SHEET INDONESIA KE NEGARA CHINA (kg)
SEBELUM ACFTA
Negara
China
1996
6,437,824
1997
2,558,312
1998
6,424,851
1999
11,136,085
2000
6,775,644
2001
5,807,053
2002
10,099,937
2003
10,432,151
2004
23,065,467
2006
51,296,861
2007
41,028,729
2008
12,887,144
2009
17,797,728
2010
6,482,846
2011
12,318,018
2012
11,457,507
2013
10,611,418
SESUDAH ACFTA
Negara
China
2005
37,773,890
LAMPIRAN 4. NILAI EKSPOR KARET ALAM BENTUK SMOKED SHEET INDONESIA KE NEGRA CHINA (US $)
SEBELUM ACFTA
Negara
China
1996
8,306,929
1997
2,918,572
1998
3,994,294
1999
6,746,016
2000
4,373,364
2001
3,258,400
2002
6,551,576
2003
10,057,705
2004
26,912,941
2006
97,855,246
2007
83,312,167
2008
33,338,757
2009
26,950,953
2010
20,147,197
2011
56,915,592
2012
36,815,330
2013
28,287,029
SESUDAH ACFTA
Negara
China
2005
48,867,740
Universitas Sumatera Utara
LAMPIRAN 5. HASIL UJI T-TEST VOLUME EKSPOR SMOKED SHEET KE
ASEAN
T-TEST
PAIRS = Sebelum WITH Sesudah (PAIRED)
/CRITERIA = CI(.95)
/MISSING = ANALYSIS.
T-Test
[DataSet1] C:\Users\HARRIS\Desktop\Documents\SKRIPSI\DATA\Volume
ke ASEAN.sav
5A
Pa ired Sa mpl es S tati stics
Mean
Pair
1
Volum e ek spor sm oked
sheet sebelum ACF TA
ke AS EAN
Volum e ek sppor
sm oked sheet sesudah
ACFTA ke ASE AN
N
St d. Deviat ion
St d. E rror
Mean
6473928
9
5503446.974
1834482
1E +007
9
5257975.120
1752658
5B
Pa ired Samples Cor rela tions
N
Pa ir
1
Vo lume eks por smo ked
sh eet s ebe lum ACFTA
ke ASEAN & Vol ume
eksppo r sm oke d she et
se suda h ACFTA ke
ASEAN
Co rrela tion
9
Sig .
.71 5
.03 0
5C
Paired Samples Test
Paired Differences
Pair
1
Volume eks por smoked
sheet s ebelum ACFTA ke
ASEAN - Volume eks ppor
smoked sheet s esudah
ACFTA ke ASEAN
Mean
Std. Deviation
-4641280
4068469.872
Std. Error
Mean
1356157
95% Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Lower
Upper
-7768582
-1513977
t
-3.422
df
Sig. (2-tailed)
8
Universitas Sumatera Utara
.009
LAMPIRAN 6. HASIL UJI T-TEST HARGA EKSPOR SMOKED SHEET KE
ASEAN
T-TEST
PAIRS = Sebelum WITH Sesudah (PAIRED)
/CRITERIA = CI(.95)
/MISSING = ANALYSIS.
T-Test
[DataSet0]
6A
Pa ired Sa mpl es S tati stics
Mean
Pair
1
St d. Deviat ion
St d. E rror
Mean
9
3328.88609
1109.629
9
8226.52852
2742.176
N
Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
7030.1111
AS EA N sebelum A CFTA
Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
23887. 44
AS EA N sesudah A CFTA
6B
Pa ired Samples Cor rela tions
N
Pa ir
1
Ha rga smo ked s hee t
ekspor Indo nes ia ke
ASEAN seb elum ACFTA
& Harg a sm oke d she et
ekspor Indo nes ia ke
ASEAN ses udah ACFTA
Co rrela tion
9
Sig .
.18 3
.63 7
6C
Pa ired Sa mpl es Test
Paired Differences
Mean
Pair
1
Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
AS EA N sebelum A CFTA
- Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
AS EA N sesudah A CFTA
-16857.3
St d. Deviat ion
St d. E rror
Mean
8290.07327
2763.358
95% Confidenc e
Int erval of t he
Difference
Lower
Upper
-23229.6
-10485.0
t
-6. 100
df
Sig. (2-tailed)
8
Universitas Sumatera Utara
.000
LAMPIRAN 7. HASIL UJI T-TEST VOLUME EKSPOR SMOKED SHEET
INDONESIA KE NEGARA CHINA
GET
FILE='C:\Users\HARRIS\Desktop\Documents\SKRIPSI\DATA\Volume ke
China.sav'.
DATASET NAME DataSet1 WINDOW=FRONT.
T-TEST
PAIRS = Sebelum WITH Sesudah (PAIRED)
/CRITERIA = CI(.95)
/MISSING = ANALYSIS.
T-Test
[DataSet1] C:\Users\HARRIS\Desktop\Documents\SKRIPSI\DATA\Volume
ke China.sav
7A
Pa ired Sa mpl es S tatistics
Mean
Pair
1
Volum e Ek spor Sm oked
Sheet Indonesi a Sebelum
ACFTA ke China
Volum e Ek spor Sm oked
Sheet Indonesi a Sesudah
ACFTA ke China
N
St d. Deviat ion
St d. E rror
Mean
9193036
9
5864724.264
1954908
2E +007
9
16369944.24
5456648
7B
Pa ired Samples Correla tions
N
Pa ir
1
Vo lume Eks por Smo ked
Sh eet Indon esia Se belu m
ACFTA ke China &
Vo lume Eks por Smo ked
Sh eet Indon esia Se suda h
ACFTA ke China
Co rrela tion
9
Sig .
-.5 54
.12 2
7C
Pa ired Sa mpl es Test
Paired Differenc es
Mean
Pair
1
Volume Ek spor Smoked
Sheet Indonesia Sebelum
ACFTA ke China - Volume
Ek spor Smoked Sheet
Indonesia S esudah
ACFTA ke China
-1E +007
St d. Deviat ion
St d. E rror
Mean
20216521.38
6738840
95% Confidenc e
Int erval of t he
Difference
Lower
Upper
-3E +007
2326814
t
-1. 961
df
Sig. (2-tailed)
8
Universitas Sumatera Utara
.086
LAMPIRAN 8. HASIL UJI T-TEST HARGA EKSPOR SMOKED SHEET
INDONESIA KE NEGARA CHINA
T-TEST
PAIRS = Sebelum WITH Sesudah (PAIRED)
/CRITERIA = CI(.95)
/MISSING = ANALYSIS.
T-Test
[DataSet0]
8A
Pa ired Sa mp les S tati stics
Mean
Pair
1
Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
China sebelum ACFTA
Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
China sesudah ACFTA
N
St d. Deviat ion
St d. E rror
Mean
7319.7778
9
3534.78330
1178.261
23869. 33
9
8584.23877
2861.413
8B
Pa ired Samples Cor rela tions
N
Pa ir
1
Ha rga smo ked shee t
ekspor Indo nes ia ke
Ch ina s ebe lum ACFTA
& Harg a sm oke d sh eet
ekspor Indo nes ia ke
Ch ina s esu dah ACFTA
Co rrela tion
9
Sig .
.41 2
.27 0
8C
Pa ired Sa mples Test
Paired Differences
Mean
Pair
1
Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
China sebelum ACFTA
- Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
China sesudah ACFTA
-16549.6
St d. Deviat ion
St d. E rror
Mean
7821.38012
2607.127
95% Confidenc e
Int erval of t he
Difference
Lower
Upper
-22561.6
-10537.5
t
-6. 348
df
Sig. (2-tailed)
8
Universitas Sumatera Utara
.000
TABEL
PERKEMBANGAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLLAR
AMERIKA SERIKAT
SEBELUM ACFTA
Tahun
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Kurs rata-rata/tahun (Rp)
2.382
3.989
11.591
7.100
9.595
10.255
9.049
10.260
10.263
Pertumbuhan (%)
67,39
190,57
- 38,75
35,14
6,88
-11,76
13,38
0,03
SESUDAH ACFTA
Tahun
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Kurs rata-rata/tahun (Rp)
9830
9200
9400
9691
10408
9087
8700
9380
9717
Pertumbuhan (%)
- 0,04
- 0,06
2,17
3,09
7,39
- 0,12
- 0,04
7,81
3,59
Universitas Sumatera Utara
SEBELUM ACFTA
Negara
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Phillipina
Vietnam
Myanmar
1996
13,576,820
0
0
0
0
0
13,576,820
1997
17,026,260
117,000
0
0
0
0
17,143,260
1998
8,142,332
76,000
0
0
0
0
8,218,332
1999
4,709,023
96,699
0
0
0
0
4,805,722
2000
3,287,041
0
19,200
0
0
0
3,306,241
2001
1,694,265
2,128
1,766
25,197
0
0
1,725,357
2002
5,051,966
170
0
0
73,224
0
5,127,362
2003
1,292,537
73,174
0
0
128,142
0
1495856
2004
2,185,058
23,490
0
504,000
153,854
0
2,866,402
2006
10,723,639
1,616,919
96,640
3,832,437
1,705,018
0
17,974,653
2007
15,146,829
564,512
113,615
1,280,962
1,498,085
0
18,604,003
2008
11,631,215
1,168,880
0
2,319,773
977,634
0
16,097,502
2009
4,100,544
684,075
0
31,460
1,694,590
0
6,510,669
2010
6,259,856
1,590,616
0
18,306
0
0
7,868,778
2011
6,474,520
1,312,262
0
60,480
0
0
7,847,262
2012
5,809,214
477,560
0
140,961
0
0
6,427,735
2013
5,357,668
562,228
0
40,320
30,600
0
5,990,816
SESUDAH ACFTA
Negara
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Phillipina
Vietnam
Myanmar
2005
9,514,751
42,998
0
2,195,586
861,315
100,800
12,715,450
LAMPIRAN 2. NILAI EKSPOR KARET ALAM BENTUK SMOKED SHEET INDONESIA KE ASEAN (US $)
SEBELUM ACFTA
Negara
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Phillipina
Vietnam
Myanmar
1996
18,694,092
0
0
0
0
0
18,694,092
1997
18,258,196
113,227
0
0
0
0
18,371,423
1998
5,397,419
48,929
0
0
0
0
5,446,348
1999
2,928,819
73,994
0
0
0
0
3,002,813
2000
2,250,323
0
12,960
0
0
0
2,263,283
2001
1,044,811
7,500
20,483
63,051
0
0
1,135,845
2002
3,499,429
1,767
0
0
61,325
0
3,562,521
2003
1,360,956
89,001
0
0
138,347
0
1,588,304
2004
2,988,875
12,441
0
584,061
206,501
0
3,791,878
2006
23,229,597
3,324,681
113,568
7,331,877
3,253,831
0
37,253,554
2007
32,545,997
1,209,202
227,230
2,445,317
3,022,468
0
39,450,214
2008
30,904,373
3,406,459
0
6,341,724
2,718,205
0
43,370,761
2009
8,825,649
1,125,691
0
61,010
2,050,875
0
12,063,225
2010
18,218,224
4,363,901
0
58,579
0
0
22,640,704
2011
31,423,814
5,169,732
0
307,642
0
0
36,901,188
2012
19,740,985
1,183,992
0
433,438
0
0
21,358,415
2013
11,402,605
986,858
0
111,485
95,778
0
12,596,726
SESUDAH ACFTA
Negara
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Phillipina
Vietnam
Myanmar
2005
13,205,054
55,695
0
2,913,555
1,039,044
114,408
17,327,756
Universitas Sumatera Utara
LAMPIRAN 3. VOLUME EKSPOR KARET ALAM BENTUK SMOKED SHEET INDONESIA KE NEGARA CHINA (kg)
SEBELUM ACFTA
Negara
China
1996
6,437,824
1997
2,558,312
1998
6,424,851
1999
11,136,085
2000
6,775,644
2001
5,807,053
2002
10,099,937
2003
10,432,151
2004
23,065,467
2006
51,296,861
2007
41,028,729
2008
12,887,144
2009
17,797,728
2010
6,482,846
2011
12,318,018
2012
11,457,507
2013
10,611,418
SESUDAH ACFTA
Negara
China
2005
37,773,890
LAMPIRAN 4. NILAI EKSPOR KARET ALAM BENTUK SMOKED SHEET INDONESIA KE NEGRA CHINA (US $)
SEBELUM ACFTA
Negara
China
1996
8,306,929
1997
2,918,572
1998
3,994,294
1999
6,746,016
2000
4,373,364
2001
3,258,400
2002
6,551,576
2003
10,057,705
2004
26,912,941
2006
97,855,246
2007
83,312,167
2008
33,338,757
2009
26,950,953
2010
20,147,197
2011
56,915,592
2012
36,815,330
2013
28,287,029
SESUDAH ACFTA
Negara
China
2005
48,867,740
Universitas Sumatera Utara
LAMPIRAN 5. HASIL UJI T-TEST VOLUME EKSPOR SMOKED SHEET KE
ASEAN
T-TEST
PAIRS = Sebelum WITH Sesudah (PAIRED)
/CRITERIA = CI(.95)
/MISSING = ANALYSIS.
T-Test
[DataSet1] C:\Users\HARRIS\Desktop\Documents\SKRIPSI\DATA\Volume
ke ASEAN.sav
5A
Pa ired Sa mpl es S tati stics
Mean
Pair
1
Volum e ek spor sm oked
sheet sebelum ACF TA
ke AS EAN
Volum e ek sppor
sm oked sheet sesudah
ACFTA ke ASE AN
N
St d. Deviat ion
St d. E rror
Mean
6473928
9
5503446.974
1834482
1E +007
9
5257975.120
1752658
5B
Pa ired Samples Cor rela tions
N
Pa ir
1
Vo lume eks por smo ked
sh eet s ebe lum ACFTA
ke ASEAN & Vol ume
eksppo r sm oke d she et
se suda h ACFTA ke
ASEAN
Co rrela tion
9
Sig .
.71 5
.03 0
5C
Paired Samples Test
Paired Differences
Pair
1
Volume eks por smoked
sheet s ebelum ACFTA ke
ASEAN - Volume eks ppor
smoked sheet s esudah
ACFTA ke ASEAN
Mean
Std. Deviation
-4641280
4068469.872
Std. Error
Mean
1356157
95% Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Lower
Upper
-7768582
-1513977
t
-3.422
df
Sig. (2-tailed)
8
Universitas Sumatera Utara
.009
LAMPIRAN 6. HASIL UJI T-TEST HARGA EKSPOR SMOKED SHEET KE
ASEAN
T-TEST
PAIRS = Sebelum WITH Sesudah (PAIRED)
/CRITERIA = CI(.95)
/MISSING = ANALYSIS.
T-Test
[DataSet0]
6A
Pa ired Sa mpl es S tati stics
Mean
Pair
1
St d. Deviat ion
St d. E rror
Mean
9
3328.88609
1109.629
9
8226.52852
2742.176
N
Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
7030.1111
AS EA N sebelum A CFTA
Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
23887. 44
AS EA N sesudah A CFTA
6B
Pa ired Samples Cor rela tions
N
Pa ir
1
Ha rga smo ked s hee t
ekspor Indo nes ia ke
ASEAN seb elum ACFTA
& Harg a sm oke d she et
ekspor Indo nes ia ke
ASEAN ses udah ACFTA
Co rrela tion
9
Sig .
.18 3
.63 7
6C
Pa ired Sa mpl es Test
Paired Differences
Mean
Pair
1
Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
AS EA N sebelum A CFTA
- Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
AS EA N sesudah A CFTA
-16857.3
St d. Deviat ion
St d. E rror
Mean
8290.07327
2763.358
95% Confidenc e
Int erval of t he
Difference
Lower
Upper
-23229.6
-10485.0
t
-6. 100
df
Sig. (2-tailed)
8
Universitas Sumatera Utara
.000
LAMPIRAN 7. HASIL UJI T-TEST VOLUME EKSPOR SMOKED SHEET
INDONESIA KE NEGARA CHINA
GET
FILE='C:\Users\HARRIS\Desktop\Documents\SKRIPSI\DATA\Volume ke
China.sav'.
DATASET NAME DataSet1 WINDOW=FRONT.
T-TEST
PAIRS = Sebelum WITH Sesudah (PAIRED)
/CRITERIA = CI(.95)
/MISSING = ANALYSIS.
T-Test
[DataSet1] C:\Users\HARRIS\Desktop\Documents\SKRIPSI\DATA\Volume
ke China.sav
7A
Pa ired Sa mpl es S tatistics
Mean
Pair
1
Volum e Ek spor Sm oked
Sheet Indonesi a Sebelum
ACFTA ke China
Volum e Ek spor Sm oked
Sheet Indonesi a Sesudah
ACFTA ke China
N
St d. Deviat ion
St d. E rror
Mean
9193036
9
5864724.264
1954908
2E +007
9
16369944.24
5456648
7B
Pa ired Samples Correla tions
N
Pa ir
1
Vo lume Eks por Smo ked
Sh eet Indon esia Se belu m
ACFTA ke China &
Vo lume Eks por Smo ked
Sh eet Indon esia Se suda h
ACFTA ke China
Co rrela tion
9
Sig .
-.5 54
.12 2
7C
Pa ired Sa mpl es Test
Paired Differenc es
Mean
Pair
1
Volume Ek spor Smoked
Sheet Indonesia Sebelum
ACFTA ke China - Volume
Ek spor Smoked Sheet
Indonesia S esudah
ACFTA ke China
-1E +007
St d. Deviat ion
St d. E rror
Mean
20216521.38
6738840
95% Confidenc e
Int erval of t he
Difference
Lower
Upper
-3E +007
2326814
t
-1. 961
df
Sig. (2-tailed)
8
Universitas Sumatera Utara
.086
LAMPIRAN 8. HASIL UJI T-TEST HARGA EKSPOR SMOKED SHEET
INDONESIA KE NEGARA CHINA
T-TEST
PAIRS = Sebelum WITH Sesudah (PAIRED)
/CRITERIA = CI(.95)
/MISSING = ANALYSIS.
T-Test
[DataSet0]
8A
Pa ired Sa mp les S tati stics
Mean
Pair
1
Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
China sebelum ACFTA
Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
China sesudah ACFTA
N
St d. Deviat ion
St d. E rror
Mean
7319.7778
9
3534.78330
1178.261
23869. 33
9
8584.23877
2861.413
8B
Pa ired Samples Cor rela tions
N
Pa ir
1
Ha rga smo ked shee t
ekspor Indo nes ia ke
Ch ina s ebe lum ACFTA
& Harg a sm oke d sh eet
ekspor Indo nes ia ke
Ch ina s esu dah ACFTA
Co rrela tion
9
Sig .
.41 2
.27 0
8C
Pa ired Sa mples Test
Paired Differences
Mean
Pair
1
Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
China sebelum ACFTA
- Harga smoked sheet
ek spor Indones ia k e
China sesudah ACFTA
-16549.6
St d. Deviat ion
St d. E rror
Mean
7821.38012
2607.127
95% Confidenc e
Int erval of t he
Difference
Lower
Upper
-22561.6
-10537.5
t
-6. 348
df
Sig. (2-tailed)
8
Universitas Sumatera Utara
.000
TABEL
PERKEMBANGAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLLAR
AMERIKA SERIKAT
SEBELUM ACFTA
Tahun
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Kurs rata-rata/tahun (Rp)
2.382
3.989
11.591
7.100
9.595
10.255
9.049
10.260
10.263
Pertumbuhan (%)
67,39
190,57
- 38,75
35,14
6,88
-11,76
13,38
0,03
SESUDAH ACFTA
Tahun
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Kurs rata-rata/tahun (Rp)
9830
9200
9400
9691
10408
9087
8700
9380
9717
Pertumbuhan (%)
- 0,04
- 0,06
2,17
3,09
7,39
- 0,12
- 0,04
7,81
3,59
Universitas Sumatera Utara