Early warning system modeling for food security campaign in Bali, Indonesia.
Agricultural Science Research Journals Vol. 2(11), pp. 602-606, November 2012
Available online at http://www.resjournals.com/ARJ
ISSN-L:2026-6073 ©2012 International Research Journals
Full Length Research Paper
Early warning system modeling for food security
campaign in Bali, Indonesia
*I Nyoman Gede Ustriyana1, Made Antara2, D.P. Darmawan2, and IGAA.
Ambarawati2
1
Doctorate Program on Agricultural Science, School of Postgraduate Udayana University.
2
Dept. of Agribusiness Faculty of Agriculture, Udayana University, Bali, Indonesia
*Corresponding author email: komingbudi@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
Food stock sufficiency in the future is influenced by some factors related to the rice stock and demand,
either individually or as a result of interaction within the factors. This study aims to formulate the early
warning method of food security in Bali Province, as guidance for the local government to make any
regulations. The method applied is dynamic system, using Powersim software. The dynamic system
consists of two subsystems or sub models; population subsystem and production subsystem. The
interaction between subsystems is visualized by the cause-effect diagram. The early detection method
leads to two important issues. Firstly, the system or model is able to visualize the stated rice stock
dynamic (ratio of rice normative consumption towards production per capita). Second, ratio of rice
normative consumption towards production per capita on each region is factually precise compared to
the actual data. These results show that the model could be applied to predict the rice volume if one of
the determinant factors has changed.
Keywords: early warning system, rice stock, dynamic system.
INTRODUCTION
According to Law No. 7 year 1996, concerning sufficiency
of domestic food shown by the adequate rice stock, both
quality and quantity, and as well as the purchasing
power. Food security includes, (1) physical food security,
(2) food accessibility, which means that each household
is able to obtain sufficient food, either domestic
production, imported or donation, and (3) food
consumption which refer to domestic food consumption,
and individual ability of absorbing and metabolizing
nutrition.
Food deficiency and food security could not be
separated from the rice commodity, considering that rice
is the main food consumed by nearly entire Indonesian
population. It is seen from the high point of rice
consumption, 100% which means that almost all of the
households are consuming rice (Erwidodo et al., 1996).
Bali as a world tourism destination has its own
carbohydrate source of rice with fluctuating production
level, although it seems to tend to be increasing, 0,43%
per year, average production of 854.562 ton (table 1).
This increasing production has been achieved through
some efforts: maximizing the intensification quality,
efficient technology application, maximizing cultivation
index, as well as maximizing harvest and post-harvest
treatment (Department of Agriculture, 2005). It all leads to
the increasing rice productivity from 11.737 pounds per
hectare in 2001, to 12.375 pounds per hectare in 2011, or
it increases 118.8 pounds on average per hectare per
year.
Problems occurred in realizing the rice stock is the fact
that rice demand grows faster than the stock growth itself
(Table 2). Rice demand increases along with the
population, economic growth, purchasing power and
changes of people’s taste (Rachman, 2001). The
dynamic demand causes the increasing need of rice
nationally, in terms of quality, quantity and variety.
Meanwhile, it is known that the capacity of national rice
production is growing slowly, in the other word, stagnant
603
Table 1. Average Production of Food Commodity and Growth per Year in Bali Province 2006 – 2011
Commodity
Rice
Corn
Cassava
Sweet Potato
Average Production per Year (ton)
854.562
74.815
167.417
81.716
Growth (% / year)
0,43
-2,14
1,01
-5,36
Source: Central Agency of Statistic, Bali in Numbers (various years) Department of Agriculture, Council of Food Crops, Bali Province
Table 2. Development of Food Security in Bali Province, 2006 – 2011
Food variety
Rice
Corn
Cassava
Sweet Potato
2006
142,70
20,41
40,02
23,98
Food Stock per Capita (kg/capita/year)
2007
2008
2009
2010
140,50
129,93
138,80
127,46
17,72
19,38
22,93
15,03
42,58
41,11
40,65
40,35
23,06
22,11
19,39
15,90
2011
122,99
14,30
40,04
15,37
Average Growth (%/year)
2006-2011
2001-2011
-2,78
-2,21
-4,96
-3,17
0,06
-0,33
-8,32
1,15
Source: Central Agency of Statistic, Bali in Numbers (various years) Department of Agriculture, Council of Food Crops, Bali Province
(Nurmalina, 2007). If this problem soon not be solved,
thus the need of importing rice will grow greater, that may
lead to a high dependability which will exhaust our foreign
exchange.
Rice sufficiency does face the degradation of natural
resources quality and quantity, for examples, land and
water resources (Saad, 1999). Rice production in Bali in
2010 is 869.160 ton, with average production of 12.564,2
pounds/ hectare (Central Agency of Statistic, Bali Province, 2011). Before 2005, there is 87.850 hectare of
semi technical irrigated rice fields, but today, there are
only 82.664 ha left (decreasing of 5.186 ha). Land use
conversion, from agricultural use to tourism or residential
use, surely be followed by the degradation of water and
land quality as the result of non-agricultural sector development, that less concerns about the environmental
aspect.
Pressures toward natural resources without any
sufficient structural change on economic sector will
become a threat to rice stock, both on micro and macro
level. On micro level, land and water degradation will
cause a limitation on maximal natural resource exploration. This may lead to a degradation of rice cultivation
productivity. On macro level, there will be an increasing
number of poor population or group of people with low
purchasing power, or even those without any food
accessibility (rice), so that they are living in the risk of
food insecurity (Maxwell and Timothy, 1992).
On the other hand, poverty provides greater pressure
against uncontrolled natural resources exploration. This
cycle should be ended that the sustainable rice stock
could be steadily realized, thus food policy should
determine rice policy as one of its main pillars (Rachman,
2001).
Since 1997, Indonesian rice policy is under market
mechanism (Timmer, 1996). Frankly said, it is indeed
risky for such main need of more than 240 millions
Indonesian to be attached fully to the market mechanism,
which empirically shows price fluctuation as a result of
demand and bargain.
The census in 2000 pictures that Bali populated by
3.150.057 people and in 2010, there are 3.890.757
people (census in 2010) or it has been increasing of
2,15% per year. The rice stock for eleven years tends to
be decreasing of -2,21% (Table 2). Population demands
rice stock and economic activity which provide job
opportunity, as well as land for the use of industry,
residences, roads and other public facilities. Therefore,
such pressures may race the competition towards
resources use, especially land and water (Saad, 1999).
Food stock sufficiency in the future is influenced by
some factors related to the rice stock and demand, either
individually or as a result of interaction within the factors.
Concerning that rice is a strategic product, thus the
stocking treatment, rice consumption and rice stock are
necessarily to be understood for the importance of planning.
This kind of information could be applied by the planner or
the rule makers to give priority to the food security program,
particularly on rice as the main food of the population
This study aims to formulate the early warning method of
food security in Bali Province. The result of early detection
system will have an important meaning in developing the
resources, so that the food security improvement of Bali
Province would soon be achieved.
604
1.
Prospective analysis
Dominant variables from literatures, Expert
and Stakeholder
Dominant variables/key
Dynamic System Analysis
Early Warning system modeling
for food security campaign
Implementation design
Model
Model
Validation
OK
NO
Model Implementation
Figure 1. Steps of Research Process
RESEARCH METHOD
Result and Discussion
This study is initially begun with the research of food
management system (rice in particular) which conducted
through literature study, FGD-Focus Group Discussion,
and direct observation. Secondary data related to the
production aspect, cultivation, land use, population and
consumption are collected from the related departments,
such as Central Agency of Statistic, Logistic Depot of Bali
and Department of Agricultural Food Crops, either
Provincial or regional. Entire collected data is used to
construct the system or food security early warning
detection. The research sequence is shown in Figure 1.
One of the food insecurity determining indicators is the
rice normative consumption ratio toward production per
capita. This ratio calculation is in accordance to the total
normative rice consumption (100 kg/ year/ capita) of a
certain region, with the total rice production of it. The
consumption total is influenced to the changing numbers
of population along with the time changes. Such dynamic
model is the most suitable for certain system or
subsystems which variables are changing along with the
time. It also is able to predict such value in a certain time
according to the available data series.
605
Period
GKP
Unhulled rice
Empty grain to rice
Birth fraction
Normal birth
numbers
Empty grain
decreasing value
Needs of seed per
hectare
Birth
Numbers of normal
immigration
Used land
Yield
Initial numbers of
population
Empty grain for
seeds
Gross production of
rice
Numbers of population
Emigration
Immigration
Decrease of rice
Rice decreasing
value
Rice availability
Ratio of rice
normative
consumption
Numbers og normal
emigration
Rice normative
consumption
Supply of local rice
Mortality
Numbers of Effect of numbers of
expected life
expected life
Rice stock
Rice supply
Rice supply from
other region
Initial numbers of
expected life
Rice usage
Initial stock
Total comsumption
Rice surplusdeficiency
Consumption per
capita
Initial GKP
GKP dynamic
Increase of GKP
Increase of
production
Percentage of GKP
increase
Percentage of
agricultural land
increase
Decrease of GKP
Percentage of GKP
decrease
Percentage of
agricultural land
degradation
Initial land area
Dynamic of land area
Land addition
Decrease of land
Figure 2. Early Warning System Modeling for Food Security
Some values of common variable have initial values are
important for the rice production, such as harvest area,
rate of land changes, rate of productivity changes, yield,
and decrease level. Meanwhile, the common variable of
rice consumption uses the initial value such as numbers
of population, normative consumption, and population
growth rate.
Model Development
According to the calculation of rice normative
consumption ratio, then a dynamic system model could
be built based on the cause-effect relation, which pictures
the relation between total rice production and normative
consumption in a particular region.
606
The dynamic system is built upon the causal diagram
which provides the image of relation between total
production and normative consumption numbers in a
certain region. Based on both variables then the value of
rice normative consumption ratio towards net production
per capita in that region could be obtained
The system test result or modeling on eight regions
shows that such modeling is able to explain the rice stock
dynamic with 97.6% of accuracy, and error level (mean
square error) of 0.09. Therefore, this kind of developing
modeling could be applied as an initial step for the rules
makers (on regional level), in particular for the rice stock
regulation.
The application of early warning modeling system
depends on the government rule (Council of Regional
Food Security), and private/ public institute that works on
food security. Food security could only be realized if all of
the stakeholders would take their own part in such
integrated coordination.
Also, this modeling implementation must be supported by
the accurate data availability, such as land and harvest
measurement, as well as productivity rate which still
depends on eye measurement.
Spatial data related to the land resources is to be used as
one of the basic information for the next modeling
development. The processing technology and spatial
information presentation such as GIS (Geographical
Information System) and Remote Sensing are also
needed for data accuracy. Thus, the advance research
which integrating such dynamic modeling and spatial
data would provide a better and more complete data.
Conclusion and Suggestion
The modeling simulation result shows that the model or
dynamic early warning modeling of rice stock is
successfully explaining the dynamic on each sub model.
With accurate initial data, this model could be used for
procurement or anticipation towards changes on
regulation related to rice stock. The simulation result also
shows the matching data on spot, especially those
related to the rice stock and population.
Researches related to the information technology,
particularly on computer and spatial data utilization could
be suggested to be integrated with the dynamic model,
so that the early warning on rice stock could provide a
complete result.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors would like to thank Mr. Sri Handoyo Mukti
from Badan Pengkajian dan Penerapan Teknologi
(BPPT), Jakarta for his help in discussion of the model.
We gratefully acknowledged the Rector of Udayana
University, Denpasar Bali for supporting and funding this
study.
REFERENCES
Central Agency of Statistic, Bali Province (2011). Downloaded
from
Central
Agency
of
Statistic,
Bali
http://www.bps.bali.go.id., tanggal 12 Maret 2012.
Chechland PB (1981). System Thinking, Systems Practices.
Wiley Chichester.
Daalen V, WAH Thissen (2001). Dynamics Systems Modeling
Continous Models.
Faculteit Techniek, Bestuur en
Management (TBM). Technische Universiteit Delft.
Department of Agriculture (2005).
Prospect and Rice
Agribusiness Development. Jakarta.
Erwidodo T Sudaryanto, A Purwono, M Ariani dan KS
Endraningsih (1996). Study of Rice Consumption Trend in
Indonesia. Cooperation of Agricultural Economic Social
Research Centre and DPG Project. Department of
Agriculture. Bogor.
Gardner B (1987). The Economics of Agricultural Policies.
Macmillan Publishing Company. New York. USA.
Manetsch RP, GL Park (1977).
System Analysis and
Simulations with Application to Economic and Social System.
Michigan State University, USA.
Marimin (2004). Technique and Application of Plural Criteria
Decision Makings. Jakarta.
Maxwell S, RF Timothy (1992). Household Food Security:
Concepts, Indicators, Re-measurements, a Technical
Review.
Rome: International Fund for Agriculture
Development.
Nurmalina R (2007). Balance Modeling of Sustainable Rice
Stock in Supporting National Food Security. Dissertation.
Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor. Bogor.
Rachman HP (2001). Kajian Pola Konsumsi dan Permintaan
Pangan di Kawasan Timur Indonesia. Dissertation. School
of Post Graduate, Bogor Agricultural Institute. Bogor.
Richardson GP, AL Pugh (1986). Introduction to System
Dynamics Modeling with Dynamo.
The MIT Press,
Cambridge, Massachussete, and London, England.
Saad MB (1999). Food Security for the Food Insecure; New
Challengers and Renewed Commitment.
Centre for
Development Studies, University College Dublin, Ireland.
Tasrif M (2004). Simulation Modeling for Policy Analysis:
Dynamic System Methodology Approachment. Group of
Research and Energy Development. Institute of Technology
Bandung. Bandung.
Timmer CP (1996). Does Bulog Stabilize Rice prices in
Indonesia? Should it try? Bull. Indon. Econ. Studies 32.
Available online at http://www.resjournals.com/ARJ
ISSN-L:2026-6073 ©2012 International Research Journals
Full Length Research Paper
Early warning system modeling for food security
campaign in Bali, Indonesia
*I Nyoman Gede Ustriyana1, Made Antara2, D.P. Darmawan2, and IGAA.
Ambarawati2
1
Doctorate Program on Agricultural Science, School of Postgraduate Udayana University.
2
Dept. of Agribusiness Faculty of Agriculture, Udayana University, Bali, Indonesia
*Corresponding author email: komingbudi@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
Food stock sufficiency in the future is influenced by some factors related to the rice stock and demand,
either individually or as a result of interaction within the factors. This study aims to formulate the early
warning method of food security in Bali Province, as guidance for the local government to make any
regulations. The method applied is dynamic system, using Powersim software. The dynamic system
consists of two subsystems or sub models; population subsystem and production subsystem. The
interaction between subsystems is visualized by the cause-effect diagram. The early detection method
leads to two important issues. Firstly, the system or model is able to visualize the stated rice stock
dynamic (ratio of rice normative consumption towards production per capita). Second, ratio of rice
normative consumption towards production per capita on each region is factually precise compared to
the actual data. These results show that the model could be applied to predict the rice volume if one of
the determinant factors has changed.
Keywords: early warning system, rice stock, dynamic system.
INTRODUCTION
According to Law No. 7 year 1996, concerning sufficiency
of domestic food shown by the adequate rice stock, both
quality and quantity, and as well as the purchasing
power. Food security includes, (1) physical food security,
(2) food accessibility, which means that each household
is able to obtain sufficient food, either domestic
production, imported or donation, and (3) food
consumption which refer to domestic food consumption,
and individual ability of absorbing and metabolizing
nutrition.
Food deficiency and food security could not be
separated from the rice commodity, considering that rice
is the main food consumed by nearly entire Indonesian
population. It is seen from the high point of rice
consumption, 100% which means that almost all of the
households are consuming rice (Erwidodo et al., 1996).
Bali as a world tourism destination has its own
carbohydrate source of rice with fluctuating production
level, although it seems to tend to be increasing, 0,43%
per year, average production of 854.562 ton (table 1).
This increasing production has been achieved through
some efforts: maximizing the intensification quality,
efficient technology application, maximizing cultivation
index, as well as maximizing harvest and post-harvest
treatment (Department of Agriculture, 2005). It all leads to
the increasing rice productivity from 11.737 pounds per
hectare in 2001, to 12.375 pounds per hectare in 2011, or
it increases 118.8 pounds on average per hectare per
year.
Problems occurred in realizing the rice stock is the fact
that rice demand grows faster than the stock growth itself
(Table 2). Rice demand increases along with the
population, economic growth, purchasing power and
changes of people’s taste (Rachman, 2001). The
dynamic demand causes the increasing need of rice
nationally, in terms of quality, quantity and variety.
Meanwhile, it is known that the capacity of national rice
production is growing slowly, in the other word, stagnant
603
Table 1. Average Production of Food Commodity and Growth per Year in Bali Province 2006 – 2011
Commodity
Rice
Corn
Cassava
Sweet Potato
Average Production per Year (ton)
854.562
74.815
167.417
81.716
Growth (% / year)
0,43
-2,14
1,01
-5,36
Source: Central Agency of Statistic, Bali in Numbers (various years) Department of Agriculture, Council of Food Crops, Bali Province
Table 2. Development of Food Security in Bali Province, 2006 – 2011
Food variety
Rice
Corn
Cassava
Sweet Potato
2006
142,70
20,41
40,02
23,98
Food Stock per Capita (kg/capita/year)
2007
2008
2009
2010
140,50
129,93
138,80
127,46
17,72
19,38
22,93
15,03
42,58
41,11
40,65
40,35
23,06
22,11
19,39
15,90
2011
122,99
14,30
40,04
15,37
Average Growth (%/year)
2006-2011
2001-2011
-2,78
-2,21
-4,96
-3,17
0,06
-0,33
-8,32
1,15
Source: Central Agency of Statistic, Bali in Numbers (various years) Department of Agriculture, Council of Food Crops, Bali Province
(Nurmalina, 2007). If this problem soon not be solved,
thus the need of importing rice will grow greater, that may
lead to a high dependability which will exhaust our foreign
exchange.
Rice sufficiency does face the degradation of natural
resources quality and quantity, for examples, land and
water resources (Saad, 1999). Rice production in Bali in
2010 is 869.160 ton, with average production of 12.564,2
pounds/ hectare (Central Agency of Statistic, Bali Province, 2011). Before 2005, there is 87.850 hectare of
semi technical irrigated rice fields, but today, there are
only 82.664 ha left (decreasing of 5.186 ha). Land use
conversion, from agricultural use to tourism or residential
use, surely be followed by the degradation of water and
land quality as the result of non-agricultural sector development, that less concerns about the environmental
aspect.
Pressures toward natural resources without any
sufficient structural change on economic sector will
become a threat to rice stock, both on micro and macro
level. On micro level, land and water degradation will
cause a limitation on maximal natural resource exploration. This may lead to a degradation of rice cultivation
productivity. On macro level, there will be an increasing
number of poor population or group of people with low
purchasing power, or even those without any food
accessibility (rice), so that they are living in the risk of
food insecurity (Maxwell and Timothy, 1992).
On the other hand, poverty provides greater pressure
against uncontrolled natural resources exploration. This
cycle should be ended that the sustainable rice stock
could be steadily realized, thus food policy should
determine rice policy as one of its main pillars (Rachman,
2001).
Since 1997, Indonesian rice policy is under market
mechanism (Timmer, 1996). Frankly said, it is indeed
risky for such main need of more than 240 millions
Indonesian to be attached fully to the market mechanism,
which empirically shows price fluctuation as a result of
demand and bargain.
The census in 2000 pictures that Bali populated by
3.150.057 people and in 2010, there are 3.890.757
people (census in 2010) or it has been increasing of
2,15% per year. The rice stock for eleven years tends to
be decreasing of -2,21% (Table 2). Population demands
rice stock and economic activity which provide job
opportunity, as well as land for the use of industry,
residences, roads and other public facilities. Therefore,
such pressures may race the competition towards
resources use, especially land and water (Saad, 1999).
Food stock sufficiency in the future is influenced by
some factors related to the rice stock and demand, either
individually or as a result of interaction within the factors.
Concerning that rice is a strategic product, thus the
stocking treatment, rice consumption and rice stock are
necessarily to be understood for the importance of planning.
This kind of information could be applied by the planner or
the rule makers to give priority to the food security program,
particularly on rice as the main food of the population
This study aims to formulate the early warning method of
food security in Bali Province. The result of early detection
system will have an important meaning in developing the
resources, so that the food security improvement of Bali
Province would soon be achieved.
604
1.
Prospective analysis
Dominant variables from literatures, Expert
and Stakeholder
Dominant variables/key
Dynamic System Analysis
Early Warning system modeling
for food security campaign
Implementation design
Model
Model
Validation
OK
NO
Model Implementation
Figure 1. Steps of Research Process
RESEARCH METHOD
Result and Discussion
This study is initially begun with the research of food
management system (rice in particular) which conducted
through literature study, FGD-Focus Group Discussion,
and direct observation. Secondary data related to the
production aspect, cultivation, land use, population and
consumption are collected from the related departments,
such as Central Agency of Statistic, Logistic Depot of Bali
and Department of Agricultural Food Crops, either
Provincial or regional. Entire collected data is used to
construct the system or food security early warning
detection. The research sequence is shown in Figure 1.
One of the food insecurity determining indicators is the
rice normative consumption ratio toward production per
capita. This ratio calculation is in accordance to the total
normative rice consumption (100 kg/ year/ capita) of a
certain region, with the total rice production of it. The
consumption total is influenced to the changing numbers
of population along with the time changes. Such dynamic
model is the most suitable for certain system or
subsystems which variables are changing along with the
time. It also is able to predict such value in a certain time
according to the available data series.
605
Period
GKP
Unhulled rice
Empty grain to rice
Birth fraction
Normal birth
numbers
Empty grain
decreasing value
Needs of seed per
hectare
Birth
Numbers of normal
immigration
Used land
Yield
Initial numbers of
population
Empty grain for
seeds
Gross production of
rice
Numbers of population
Emigration
Immigration
Decrease of rice
Rice decreasing
value
Rice availability
Ratio of rice
normative
consumption
Numbers og normal
emigration
Rice normative
consumption
Supply of local rice
Mortality
Numbers of Effect of numbers of
expected life
expected life
Rice stock
Rice supply
Rice supply from
other region
Initial numbers of
expected life
Rice usage
Initial stock
Total comsumption
Rice surplusdeficiency
Consumption per
capita
Initial GKP
GKP dynamic
Increase of GKP
Increase of
production
Percentage of GKP
increase
Percentage of
agricultural land
increase
Decrease of GKP
Percentage of GKP
decrease
Percentage of
agricultural land
degradation
Initial land area
Dynamic of land area
Land addition
Decrease of land
Figure 2. Early Warning System Modeling for Food Security
Some values of common variable have initial values are
important for the rice production, such as harvest area,
rate of land changes, rate of productivity changes, yield,
and decrease level. Meanwhile, the common variable of
rice consumption uses the initial value such as numbers
of population, normative consumption, and population
growth rate.
Model Development
According to the calculation of rice normative
consumption ratio, then a dynamic system model could
be built based on the cause-effect relation, which pictures
the relation between total rice production and normative
consumption in a particular region.
606
The dynamic system is built upon the causal diagram
which provides the image of relation between total
production and normative consumption numbers in a
certain region. Based on both variables then the value of
rice normative consumption ratio towards net production
per capita in that region could be obtained
The system test result or modeling on eight regions
shows that such modeling is able to explain the rice stock
dynamic with 97.6% of accuracy, and error level (mean
square error) of 0.09. Therefore, this kind of developing
modeling could be applied as an initial step for the rules
makers (on regional level), in particular for the rice stock
regulation.
The application of early warning modeling system
depends on the government rule (Council of Regional
Food Security), and private/ public institute that works on
food security. Food security could only be realized if all of
the stakeholders would take their own part in such
integrated coordination.
Also, this modeling implementation must be supported by
the accurate data availability, such as land and harvest
measurement, as well as productivity rate which still
depends on eye measurement.
Spatial data related to the land resources is to be used as
one of the basic information for the next modeling
development. The processing technology and spatial
information presentation such as GIS (Geographical
Information System) and Remote Sensing are also
needed for data accuracy. Thus, the advance research
which integrating such dynamic modeling and spatial
data would provide a better and more complete data.
Conclusion and Suggestion
The modeling simulation result shows that the model or
dynamic early warning modeling of rice stock is
successfully explaining the dynamic on each sub model.
With accurate initial data, this model could be used for
procurement or anticipation towards changes on
regulation related to rice stock. The simulation result also
shows the matching data on spot, especially those
related to the rice stock and population.
Researches related to the information technology,
particularly on computer and spatial data utilization could
be suggested to be integrated with the dynamic model,
so that the early warning on rice stock could provide a
complete result.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors would like to thank Mr. Sri Handoyo Mukti
from Badan Pengkajian dan Penerapan Teknologi
(BPPT), Jakarta for his help in discussion of the model.
We gratefully acknowledged the Rector of Udayana
University, Denpasar Bali for supporting and funding this
study.
REFERENCES
Central Agency of Statistic, Bali Province (2011). Downloaded
from
Central
Agency
of
Statistic,
Bali
http://www.bps.bali.go.id., tanggal 12 Maret 2012.
Chechland PB (1981). System Thinking, Systems Practices.
Wiley Chichester.
Daalen V, WAH Thissen (2001). Dynamics Systems Modeling
Continous Models.
Faculteit Techniek, Bestuur en
Management (TBM). Technische Universiteit Delft.
Department of Agriculture (2005).
Prospect and Rice
Agribusiness Development. Jakarta.
Erwidodo T Sudaryanto, A Purwono, M Ariani dan KS
Endraningsih (1996). Study of Rice Consumption Trend in
Indonesia. Cooperation of Agricultural Economic Social
Research Centre and DPG Project. Department of
Agriculture. Bogor.
Gardner B (1987). The Economics of Agricultural Policies.
Macmillan Publishing Company. New York. USA.
Manetsch RP, GL Park (1977).
System Analysis and
Simulations with Application to Economic and Social System.
Michigan State University, USA.
Marimin (2004). Technique and Application of Plural Criteria
Decision Makings. Jakarta.
Maxwell S, RF Timothy (1992). Household Food Security:
Concepts, Indicators, Re-measurements, a Technical
Review.
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