Peramalan Curah Hujan di Kota Medan dengan Menggunakan Metode SeasonalARIMA dan Metode Dekomposisi
Lampiran 1. Peramalan Curah Hujan Menggunakan Metode Seasonal ARIMA
dengan Data Input 2 Musim Terakhir untuk Evaluasi
Forecasts from period 120
Period
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
Forecast
188.429
175.418
182.860
221.408
264.326
147.526
210.407
268.216
300.845
358.749
253.656
262.798
183.696
150.012
219.074
193.478
277.803
148.157
203.539
277.013
292.694
360.300
253.392
260.406
95% Limits
Lower
Upper
-12.420 389.279
-26.019 376.855
-19.486 385.206
16.477 426.339
57.404 471.248
-60.033 355.086
2.822 417.993
60.560 475.873
93.012 508.679
150.786 566.712
45.653 461.658
54.795 470.802
-26.216 393.608
-59.900 359.924
9.115 429.033
-16.548 403.504
67.740 487.866
-61.913 358.227
-6.532 413.609
66.939 487.086
82.616 502.772
150.219 570.380
43.311 463.473
50.325 470.487
Actual
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2. Peramalan Curah Hujan Menggunakan Metode Dekomposisi dengan
Data Input 2 Musim Terakhir untuk Evaluasi
Periode
a
b
(t)
� = � + ��
Indeks
Prediksi
Musiman
Bulanan
121
219,451
0,207
244,504
0,823
201,340
122
219,451
0,207
244,711
0,482
117,889
123
219,451
0,207
244,918
0,918
224,856
124
219,451
0,207
245,125
0,860
210,911
125
219,451
0,207
245,332
1,420
348,286
126
219,451
0,207
245,539
0,619
151,932
127
219,451
0,207
245,746
9,361
230,048
128
219,451
0,207
245,953
1,069
262,983
129
219,451
0,207
246,160
1,371
337,400
130
219,451
0,207
246,367
1,424
350,914
131
219,451
0,207
246,574
1,048
258,385
132
219,451
0,207
246,781
1,030
254,085
133
219,451
0,207
246,989
0,823
203,386
134
219,451
0,207
247,196
0,482
119,087
135
219,451
0,207
247,403
0,918
227,137
136
219,451
0,207
247,610
0,860
213,049
137
219,451
0,207
247,817
1,420
351,813
138
219,451
0,207
248,024
0,619
153,469
139
219,451
0,207
248,231
0,936
232,374
140
219,451
0,207
248,438
1,069
265,640
141
219,451
0,207
248,645
1,371
340,806
142
219,451
0,207
248,852
1,424
354,453
143
219,451
0,207
249,059
1,048
260,988
144
219,451
0,207
249,266
1,030
256,643
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3. Perhitungan Rata-Rata Bergerak dan Rasionya
Periode
Data Aktual
Rata-Rata
Rasio dari Data
Bergerak
Aktual terhadap
Rata-Rata Bergerak
(%)
Januari 2004
103
-
-
Februari 2004
108
-
-
Maret 2004
288
-
-
April 2004
170
-
-
Mei 2004
179
-
-
Juni 2004
228
-
-
Juli 2004
317
271,167
116,902
Agustus 2004
441
297,833
148,069
September 2004
547
292,667
186,902
Oktober 2004
460
276,583
166,315
November 2004
192
269,583
71,221
Desember 2004
221
281,250
78,578
Januari 200
423
278,000
152,158
Februari 2005
46
267,583
17,191
Maret 2005
95
241,083
39,405
April 2005
86
214,083
40,171
Mei 2005
319
190,500
167,454
Juni 2005
189
187,583
100,755
Juli 2005
192
195,333
98,294
Agustus 2005
123
160,917
76,437
September 2005
223
168,083
132,672
Oktober 2005
177
170,333
103,914
November 2005
157
181,750
86,382
Desember 2005
314
180,167
174,283
Januari 2006
10
185,417
5,393
Februari 2006
132
178,583
73,915
Maret 2006
122
180,667
67,528
Universitas Sumatera Utara
April 2006
223
194,333
114,751
Mei 2006
300
202,250
148,331
Juni 2006
252
201,417
125,114
Juli 2006
110
204,167
53,878
Agustus 2006
148
217,333
68,098
September 2006
387
207,083
186,881
Oktober 2006
272
202,083
134,598
November 2006
147
206,583
71,158
Desember 2006
347
210,500
164,846
Januari 2007
168
197,750
84,956
Februari 2007
9
208,833
4,310
Maret 2007
62
215,000
28,837
April 2007
277
213,917
129,490
Mei 2007
347
212,167
163,551
Juni 2007
99
231,583
42,749
Juli 2007
243
227,333
106,891
Agustus 2007
222
226,917
97,833
September 2007
374
237,417
157,529
Oktober 2007
251
247,917
101,244
November 2007
380
242,750
156,540
Desember 2007
296
232,500
127,312
Januari 2008
163
234,167
69,609
Februari 2008
135
226,750
59,537
Maret 2008
188
231,833
8,.093
April 2008
215
222,583
96,593
Mei 2008
224
236,667
94,648
Juni 2008
119
223,750
53,184
Juli 2008
154
213,167
72,244
Agustus 2008
283
220,583
128,296
September 2008
263
224,333
117,236
Oktober 2008
420
251,333
167,109
November 2008
225
255,417
88,091
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Desember 2008
169
268,833
62,864
Januari 2009
252
264,000
95,454
Februari 2009
180
272,667
66,0147
Maret 2009
512
270,167
189,513
April 2009
264
279,250
94,539
Mei 2009
385
268,000
143,657
Juni 2009
61
267,333
22,818
Juli 2009
258
262,833
98,161
Agustus 2009
253
256,083
98,796
September 2009
372
248,083
149,950
Oktober 2009
285
227,833
125,091
November 2009
217
212,500
102,118
Desember 2009
115
205,583
55,938
Januari 2010
171
214,167
79,844
Februari 2010
84
209,000
40,191
Maret 2010
269
215,333
124,923
April 2010
80
198,167
40,370
Mei 2010
302
190,583
158,461
Juni 2010
164
209,333
78,344
Juli 2010
196
212,417
92,271
Agustus 2010
329
213,417
154,159
September 2010
166
211,750
78,394
Oktober 2010
194
220,667
87,915
November 2010
442
231,083
191,273
Desember 2010
152
224,167
67,807
Januari 2011
183
221,167
82,743
Februari 2011
64
221,917
28,840
Maret 2011
376
213,917
175,769
April 2011
205
213,750
95,906
Mei 2011
219
237,167
92,340
Juni 2011
128
217,917
58,738
Juli 2011
205
224,833
91,179
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Agustus 2011
233
224,667
103,709
September 2011
164
227,833
71,982
Oktober 2011
475
213,333
222,656
November 2011
211
210,583
100,198
Desember 2011
235
231,500
101,512
Januari 2012
181
228,167
79,328
Februari 2012
102
237,500
42,947
Maret 2012
202
233,500
86,510
April 2012
172
243,833
70,540
Mei 2012
470
240,250
195,630
Juni 2012
88
245,583
35,833
Juli 2012
317
244,500
129,652
Agustus 2012
185
242,583
76,262
September 2012
288
256,333
112,354
Oktober 2012
432
249,167
173,378
November 2012
275
249,333
110,294
Desember 2012
222
223,250
99,440
Januari 2013
158
226,333
69,808
Februari 2013
267
207,500
128,675
Maret 2013
116
227,167
51,064
April 2013
174
234,333
74,253
Mei 2013
157
240,750
65,213
Juni 2013
125
238,083
52,503
Juli 2013
91
261,167
34,844
Agustus 2013
421
-
-
September 2013
374
-
-
Oktober 2013
509
-
-
November 2013
243
-
-
Desember 2013
499
-
-
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4. Perhitungan Deseasonalized Data untuk Pencocokan Trend
��
� × ��
125,081
1
125,081
48,175
224,182
4
448,364
288
91,809
313,696
9
941,087
4
170
86,042
197,578
16
790,311
5
179
141,965
126,087
25
630,437
6
228
61,877
368,473
36
2.210,836
7
317
93,612
338,632
49
2.370,423
8
441
106,924
412,442
64
3.299,537
9
547
137,065
399,080
81
3.591,724
10
460
142,435
322,954
100
3.229,541
11
192
104,789
183,224
121
2.015,463
12
221
102,959
214,648
144
2.575,771
13
423
82,346
513,683
169
6.677,879
14
46
48,175
95,485
196
1.336,79
15
95
91,809
103,476
225
1.552,14
16
86
86,042
99,951
256
1.599,217
17
319
141,965
224,703
289
3.819,957
18
189
61,877
305,444
324
5.497,999
19
192
93,612
205,102
361
3.896,937
20
123
106,924
115,035
400
2.300,698
21
223
137,065
162,696
441
3.416,624
22
177
142,435
124,267
484
2.733,877
23
157
104,789
149,824
529
3.445,946
24
314
102,959
304,974
576
7.319,385
25
10
82,346
12,144
625
303,595
26
132
48,175
274,000
676
7.124,009
27
122
91,809
132,885
729
3.587,893
Periode
Data
Indeks
Deseasonalized
(t)
Aktual
Musiman
Data
(�� )
(%)
1
103
82,346
2
108
3
(�� )
(�� =
��
��
)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
28
223
86,042
259,175
784
7.256,913
29
300
141,965
211,319
841
6.128,273
30
252
61,877
407,259
900
12.217,78
31
110
93,612
117,506
961
3.642,696
32
148
106,924
138,416
1.024
4.429,311
33
387
137,065
282,348
1.089
9.317,47
34
272
142,435
190,964
1.156
6.492,782
35
147
104,789
140,281
1.225
4.909,829
36
347
102,959
337,026
1.296
12.132,93
37
168
82,346
204,016
1.369
7.548,59
38
9
48,175
18,682
1.444
709,91
39
62
91,809
67,532
1.521
2.633,736
40
277
86,042
321,935
1.600
12.877,42
41
347
141,965
244,426
1.681
10.021,49
42
99
61,877
159,995
1.764
6.719,776
43
243
93,612
259,582
1.849
11.162,03
44
222
106,924
207,624
1.936
9.135,453
45
374
137,065
272,863
2.025
12.278,84
46
251
142,435
176,221
2.116
8.106,148
47
380
104,789
362,631
2.209
17.043,64
48
296
102,959
287,492
2.304
13.799,61
49
163
82,346
197,944
2.401
9.699,259
50
135
48,175
280,228
2.500
14.011,38
51
188
91,809
204,773
2.601
10.443,45
52
215
86,042
249,877
2.704
12.993,64
53
224
141,965
157,785
2.809
8.362,628
54
119
61,877
192,317
2.916
10.385,11
55
154
93,612
164,509
3.025
9.047,986
56
283
106,924
264,674
3.136
14.821,73
57
263
137,065
191,879
3.249
10.937,14
58
420
142,435
294,871
3.364
17.102,53
59
225
104,789
214,716
3.481
12.668,22
Universitas Sumatera Utara
60
169
102,959
164,142
3.600
9.848,536
61
252
82,346
306,024
3.721
18.667,46
62
180
48,175
373,637
3.844
23.165,48
63
512
91,809
557,681
3.969
35.133,91
64
264
86,042
306,827
4.096
19.636,9
65
385
141,965
271,194
4.225
17.627,59
66
61
61,877
98,582
4.356
6.506,45
67
258
93,612
275,606
4.489
18.465,58
68
253
106,924
236,616
4.624
16.089,92
69
372
137,065
271,404
4.761
18.726,87
70
285
142,435
200,091
4.900
14.006,38
71
217
104,789
207,081
5.041
14.702,77
72
115
102,959
111,694
5.184
8.042
73
171
82,346
207,659
5.329
15.159,11
74
84
48,175
174,364
5.476
12.902,93
75
269
91,809
293,000
5.625
21.975,03
76
80
86,042
92,978
5.776
7.066,309
77
302
141,965
212,729
5.929
16.380,1
78
164
61,877
265,042
6.084
20.673,25
79
196
93,612
209,375
6.241
16.540,62
80
329
106,924
307,695
6.400
24.615,6
81
166
137,065
121,110
6.561
9.809,936
82
194
142,435
136,202
6.724
11.168,6
83
442
104,789
421,797
6.889
35.009,14
84
152
102,959
147,631
7.056
12.401
85
183
82,346
222,232
7.225
18.889,69
86
64
48,175
132,849
7.396
11.424,98
87
376
91,809
409,547
7.569
35.630,59
88
205
86,042
238,255
7.744
20.966,48
89
219
141,965
154,263
7.921
13.729,45
90
128
61,877
206,862
8.100
18.617,56
91
205
93,612
218,989
8.281
19.928
Universitas Sumatera Utara
92
233
106,924
217,912
8.464
20.047,87
93
164
137,065
119,651
8.649
11.127,56
94
475
142,435
333,485
8.836
31.347,61
95
211
104,789
201,355
9.025
19.128,77
96
235
102,959
228,245
9.216
21.911,54
97
181
82,346
219,803
9.409
21.320,88
98
102
48,175
211,727
9.604
20.749,3
99
202
91,809
220,023
9.801
21.782,24
100
172
86,042
199,902
10.000
19.990,22
101
470
141,965
331,068
10.201
33.437,83
102
88
61,877
142,217
10.404
14.506,18
103
317
93,612
338,632
10.609
34.879,08
104
185
106,924
173,020
10.816
17.994,07
105
288
137,065
210,119
11.025
22.062,51
106
432
142,435
303,296
11.236
32.149,38
107
275
104,789
262,430
11.449
28.080,03
108
222
102,959
215,619
11.664
23.286,83
109
158
82,346
191,872
11.881
20.914,06
110
267
48,175
554,228
12.100
60.965,08
111
116
91,809
126,349
12.321
14.024,81
112
174
86,042
202,227
12.544
22.649,38
113
157
141,965
110,591
12.769
12.496,75
114
125
61,877
202,013
12.996
23.029,54
115
91
93,612
97,209
13.225
11.179,12
116
421
106,924
393,737
13.456
45.673,53
117
374
137,065
272,863
13.689
31.924,97
118
509
142,435
357,356
13.924
42.167,98
119
243
104,789
231,893
14.161
27.595,24
120
499
102,959
484,657
14.400
58.158,81
27.837,270
583.220
1.713.968,591
7.260
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 5. Perhitungan Tingkat Keakuratan MAPE Model
ARIMA(2,0,2)(1,0,1)12
���
����
0,571
0,302%
0,013%
175,418
-22,418
-14,652%
0,611%
169
182,860
-13,860
-8,201%
0,342%
124
240
221,408
18,592
7,747%
0,323%
125
226
264,326
-38,326
-16,958%
0,707%
126
162
147,526
14,474
8,935%
0,372%
127
161
210,407
-49,407
-30,688%
1,279%
128
206
268,216
-62,216
-30,202%
1,258%
129
266
300,845
-34,845
-13,099%
0,546%
130
322
358,749
-36,749
-11,413%
0,476%
131
184
253,656
-69,656
-37,856%
1,577%
132
299
262,798
36,202
12,108%
0,504%
133
153
183,696
-30,696
-20,063%
0,836%
134
154
150,012
3,988
2,589%
0,108%
135
144
219,074
-75,074
-52,135%
2,172%
136
254
193,478
60,522
23,828%
0,993%
137
250
277,803
-27,803
-11,121%
0,463%
138
86
148,157
-62,157
-72,276%
3,011%
139
161
203,539
-42,539
-26,422%
1,101%
140
299
277,013
21,987
7,353%
0,306%
141
284
292,694
-8,694
-3,061%
0,128%
142
345
360,300
-15,300
-4,435%
0,185%
143
299
253,392
45,608
15,253%
0,635%
144
254
260,406
-6,406
-2,522%
0,105%
Periode
Data
Data
Error
(t)
Aktual
Ramalan
121
(�� )
189
� �)
(�
(�� − �� )
188,429
122
153
123
18,051%
Universitas Sumatera Utara
dengan Data Input 2 Musim Terakhir untuk Evaluasi
Forecasts from period 120
Period
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
Forecast
188.429
175.418
182.860
221.408
264.326
147.526
210.407
268.216
300.845
358.749
253.656
262.798
183.696
150.012
219.074
193.478
277.803
148.157
203.539
277.013
292.694
360.300
253.392
260.406
95% Limits
Lower
Upper
-12.420 389.279
-26.019 376.855
-19.486 385.206
16.477 426.339
57.404 471.248
-60.033 355.086
2.822 417.993
60.560 475.873
93.012 508.679
150.786 566.712
45.653 461.658
54.795 470.802
-26.216 393.608
-59.900 359.924
9.115 429.033
-16.548 403.504
67.740 487.866
-61.913 358.227
-6.532 413.609
66.939 487.086
82.616 502.772
150.219 570.380
43.311 463.473
50.325 470.487
Actual
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2. Peramalan Curah Hujan Menggunakan Metode Dekomposisi dengan
Data Input 2 Musim Terakhir untuk Evaluasi
Periode
a
b
(t)
� = � + ��
Indeks
Prediksi
Musiman
Bulanan
121
219,451
0,207
244,504
0,823
201,340
122
219,451
0,207
244,711
0,482
117,889
123
219,451
0,207
244,918
0,918
224,856
124
219,451
0,207
245,125
0,860
210,911
125
219,451
0,207
245,332
1,420
348,286
126
219,451
0,207
245,539
0,619
151,932
127
219,451
0,207
245,746
9,361
230,048
128
219,451
0,207
245,953
1,069
262,983
129
219,451
0,207
246,160
1,371
337,400
130
219,451
0,207
246,367
1,424
350,914
131
219,451
0,207
246,574
1,048
258,385
132
219,451
0,207
246,781
1,030
254,085
133
219,451
0,207
246,989
0,823
203,386
134
219,451
0,207
247,196
0,482
119,087
135
219,451
0,207
247,403
0,918
227,137
136
219,451
0,207
247,610
0,860
213,049
137
219,451
0,207
247,817
1,420
351,813
138
219,451
0,207
248,024
0,619
153,469
139
219,451
0,207
248,231
0,936
232,374
140
219,451
0,207
248,438
1,069
265,640
141
219,451
0,207
248,645
1,371
340,806
142
219,451
0,207
248,852
1,424
354,453
143
219,451
0,207
249,059
1,048
260,988
144
219,451
0,207
249,266
1,030
256,643
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3. Perhitungan Rata-Rata Bergerak dan Rasionya
Periode
Data Aktual
Rata-Rata
Rasio dari Data
Bergerak
Aktual terhadap
Rata-Rata Bergerak
(%)
Januari 2004
103
-
-
Februari 2004
108
-
-
Maret 2004
288
-
-
April 2004
170
-
-
Mei 2004
179
-
-
Juni 2004
228
-
-
Juli 2004
317
271,167
116,902
Agustus 2004
441
297,833
148,069
September 2004
547
292,667
186,902
Oktober 2004
460
276,583
166,315
November 2004
192
269,583
71,221
Desember 2004
221
281,250
78,578
Januari 200
423
278,000
152,158
Februari 2005
46
267,583
17,191
Maret 2005
95
241,083
39,405
April 2005
86
214,083
40,171
Mei 2005
319
190,500
167,454
Juni 2005
189
187,583
100,755
Juli 2005
192
195,333
98,294
Agustus 2005
123
160,917
76,437
September 2005
223
168,083
132,672
Oktober 2005
177
170,333
103,914
November 2005
157
181,750
86,382
Desember 2005
314
180,167
174,283
Januari 2006
10
185,417
5,393
Februari 2006
132
178,583
73,915
Maret 2006
122
180,667
67,528
Universitas Sumatera Utara
April 2006
223
194,333
114,751
Mei 2006
300
202,250
148,331
Juni 2006
252
201,417
125,114
Juli 2006
110
204,167
53,878
Agustus 2006
148
217,333
68,098
September 2006
387
207,083
186,881
Oktober 2006
272
202,083
134,598
November 2006
147
206,583
71,158
Desember 2006
347
210,500
164,846
Januari 2007
168
197,750
84,956
Februari 2007
9
208,833
4,310
Maret 2007
62
215,000
28,837
April 2007
277
213,917
129,490
Mei 2007
347
212,167
163,551
Juni 2007
99
231,583
42,749
Juli 2007
243
227,333
106,891
Agustus 2007
222
226,917
97,833
September 2007
374
237,417
157,529
Oktober 2007
251
247,917
101,244
November 2007
380
242,750
156,540
Desember 2007
296
232,500
127,312
Januari 2008
163
234,167
69,609
Februari 2008
135
226,750
59,537
Maret 2008
188
231,833
8,.093
April 2008
215
222,583
96,593
Mei 2008
224
236,667
94,648
Juni 2008
119
223,750
53,184
Juli 2008
154
213,167
72,244
Agustus 2008
283
220,583
128,296
September 2008
263
224,333
117,236
Oktober 2008
420
251,333
167,109
November 2008
225
255,417
88,091
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Desember 2008
169
268,833
62,864
Januari 2009
252
264,000
95,454
Februari 2009
180
272,667
66,0147
Maret 2009
512
270,167
189,513
April 2009
264
279,250
94,539
Mei 2009
385
268,000
143,657
Juni 2009
61
267,333
22,818
Juli 2009
258
262,833
98,161
Agustus 2009
253
256,083
98,796
September 2009
372
248,083
149,950
Oktober 2009
285
227,833
125,091
November 2009
217
212,500
102,118
Desember 2009
115
205,583
55,938
Januari 2010
171
214,167
79,844
Februari 2010
84
209,000
40,191
Maret 2010
269
215,333
124,923
April 2010
80
198,167
40,370
Mei 2010
302
190,583
158,461
Juni 2010
164
209,333
78,344
Juli 2010
196
212,417
92,271
Agustus 2010
329
213,417
154,159
September 2010
166
211,750
78,394
Oktober 2010
194
220,667
87,915
November 2010
442
231,083
191,273
Desember 2010
152
224,167
67,807
Januari 2011
183
221,167
82,743
Februari 2011
64
221,917
28,840
Maret 2011
376
213,917
175,769
April 2011
205
213,750
95,906
Mei 2011
219
237,167
92,340
Juni 2011
128
217,917
58,738
Juli 2011
205
224,833
91,179
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Agustus 2011
233
224,667
103,709
September 2011
164
227,833
71,982
Oktober 2011
475
213,333
222,656
November 2011
211
210,583
100,198
Desember 2011
235
231,500
101,512
Januari 2012
181
228,167
79,328
Februari 2012
102
237,500
42,947
Maret 2012
202
233,500
86,510
April 2012
172
243,833
70,540
Mei 2012
470
240,250
195,630
Juni 2012
88
245,583
35,833
Juli 2012
317
244,500
129,652
Agustus 2012
185
242,583
76,262
September 2012
288
256,333
112,354
Oktober 2012
432
249,167
173,378
November 2012
275
249,333
110,294
Desember 2012
222
223,250
99,440
Januari 2013
158
226,333
69,808
Februari 2013
267
207,500
128,675
Maret 2013
116
227,167
51,064
April 2013
174
234,333
74,253
Mei 2013
157
240,750
65,213
Juni 2013
125
238,083
52,503
Juli 2013
91
261,167
34,844
Agustus 2013
421
-
-
September 2013
374
-
-
Oktober 2013
509
-
-
November 2013
243
-
-
Desember 2013
499
-
-
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4. Perhitungan Deseasonalized Data untuk Pencocokan Trend
��
� × ��
125,081
1
125,081
48,175
224,182
4
448,364
288
91,809
313,696
9
941,087
4
170
86,042
197,578
16
790,311
5
179
141,965
126,087
25
630,437
6
228
61,877
368,473
36
2.210,836
7
317
93,612
338,632
49
2.370,423
8
441
106,924
412,442
64
3.299,537
9
547
137,065
399,080
81
3.591,724
10
460
142,435
322,954
100
3.229,541
11
192
104,789
183,224
121
2.015,463
12
221
102,959
214,648
144
2.575,771
13
423
82,346
513,683
169
6.677,879
14
46
48,175
95,485
196
1.336,79
15
95
91,809
103,476
225
1.552,14
16
86
86,042
99,951
256
1.599,217
17
319
141,965
224,703
289
3.819,957
18
189
61,877
305,444
324
5.497,999
19
192
93,612
205,102
361
3.896,937
20
123
106,924
115,035
400
2.300,698
21
223
137,065
162,696
441
3.416,624
22
177
142,435
124,267
484
2.733,877
23
157
104,789
149,824
529
3.445,946
24
314
102,959
304,974
576
7.319,385
25
10
82,346
12,144
625
303,595
26
132
48,175
274,000
676
7.124,009
27
122
91,809
132,885
729
3.587,893
Periode
Data
Indeks
Deseasonalized
(t)
Aktual
Musiman
Data
(�� )
(%)
1
103
82,346
2
108
3
(�� )
(�� =
��
��
)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
28
223
86,042
259,175
784
7.256,913
29
300
141,965
211,319
841
6.128,273
30
252
61,877
407,259
900
12.217,78
31
110
93,612
117,506
961
3.642,696
32
148
106,924
138,416
1.024
4.429,311
33
387
137,065
282,348
1.089
9.317,47
34
272
142,435
190,964
1.156
6.492,782
35
147
104,789
140,281
1.225
4.909,829
36
347
102,959
337,026
1.296
12.132,93
37
168
82,346
204,016
1.369
7.548,59
38
9
48,175
18,682
1.444
709,91
39
62
91,809
67,532
1.521
2.633,736
40
277
86,042
321,935
1.600
12.877,42
41
347
141,965
244,426
1.681
10.021,49
42
99
61,877
159,995
1.764
6.719,776
43
243
93,612
259,582
1.849
11.162,03
44
222
106,924
207,624
1.936
9.135,453
45
374
137,065
272,863
2.025
12.278,84
46
251
142,435
176,221
2.116
8.106,148
47
380
104,789
362,631
2.209
17.043,64
48
296
102,959
287,492
2.304
13.799,61
49
163
82,346
197,944
2.401
9.699,259
50
135
48,175
280,228
2.500
14.011,38
51
188
91,809
204,773
2.601
10.443,45
52
215
86,042
249,877
2.704
12.993,64
53
224
141,965
157,785
2.809
8.362,628
54
119
61,877
192,317
2.916
10.385,11
55
154
93,612
164,509
3.025
9.047,986
56
283
106,924
264,674
3.136
14.821,73
57
263
137,065
191,879
3.249
10.937,14
58
420
142,435
294,871
3.364
17.102,53
59
225
104,789
214,716
3.481
12.668,22
Universitas Sumatera Utara
60
169
102,959
164,142
3.600
9.848,536
61
252
82,346
306,024
3.721
18.667,46
62
180
48,175
373,637
3.844
23.165,48
63
512
91,809
557,681
3.969
35.133,91
64
264
86,042
306,827
4.096
19.636,9
65
385
141,965
271,194
4.225
17.627,59
66
61
61,877
98,582
4.356
6.506,45
67
258
93,612
275,606
4.489
18.465,58
68
253
106,924
236,616
4.624
16.089,92
69
372
137,065
271,404
4.761
18.726,87
70
285
142,435
200,091
4.900
14.006,38
71
217
104,789
207,081
5.041
14.702,77
72
115
102,959
111,694
5.184
8.042
73
171
82,346
207,659
5.329
15.159,11
74
84
48,175
174,364
5.476
12.902,93
75
269
91,809
293,000
5.625
21.975,03
76
80
86,042
92,978
5.776
7.066,309
77
302
141,965
212,729
5.929
16.380,1
78
164
61,877
265,042
6.084
20.673,25
79
196
93,612
209,375
6.241
16.540,62
80
329
106,924
307,695
6.400
24.615,6
81
166
137,065
121,110
6.561
9.809,936
82
194
142,435
136,202
6.724
11.168,6
83
442
104,789
421,797
6.889
35.009,14
84
152
102,959
147,631
7.056
12.401
85
183
82,346
222,232
7.225
18.889,69
86
64
48,175
132,849
7.396
11.424,98
87
376
91,809
409,547
7.569
35.630,59
88
205
86,042
238,255
7.744
20.966,48
89
219
141,965
154,263
7.921
13.729,45
90
128
61,877
206,862
8.100
18.617,56
91
205
93,612
218,989
8.281
19.928
Universitas Sumatera Utara
92
233
106,924
217,912
8.464
20.047,87
93
164
137,065
119,651
8.649
11.127,56
94
475
142,435
333,485
8.836
31.347,61
95
211
104,789
201,355
9.025
19.128,77
96
235
102,959
228,245
9.216
21.911,54
97
181
82,346
219,803
9.409
21.320,88
98
102
48,175
211,727
9.604
20.749,3
99
202
91,809
220,023
9.801
21.782,24
100
172
86,042
199,902
10.000
19.990,22
101
470
141,965
331,068
10.201
33.437,83
102
88
61,877
142,217
10.404
14.506,18
103
317
93,612
338,632
10.609
34.879,08
104
185
106,924
173,020
10.816
17.994,07
105
288
137,065
210,119
11.025
22.062,51
106
432
142,435
303,296
11.236
32.149,38
107
275
104,789
262,430
11.449
28.080,03
108
222
102,959
215,619
11.664
23.286,83
109
158
82,346
191,872
11.881
20.914,06
110
267
48,175
554,228
12.100
60.965,08
111
116
91,809
126,349
12.321
14.024,81
112
174
86,042
202,227
12.544
22.649,38
113
157
141,965
110,591
12.769
12.496,75
114
125
61,877
202,013
12.996
23.029,54
115
91
93,612
97,209
13.225
11.179,12
116
421
106,924
393,737
13.456
45.673,53
117
374
137,065
272,863
13.689
31.924,97
118
509
142,435
357,356
13.924
42.167,98
119
243
104,789
231,893
14.161
27.595,24
120
499
102,959
484,657
14.400
58.158,81
27.837,270
583.220
1.713.968,591
7.260
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 5. Perhitungan Tingkat Keakuratan MAPE Model
ARIMA(2,0,2)(1,0,1)12
���
����
0,571
0,302%
0,013%
175,418
-22,418
-14,652%
0,611%
169
182,860
-13,860
-8,201%
0,342%
124
240
221,408
18,592
7,747%
0,323%
125
226
264,326
-38,326
-16,958%
0,707%
126
162
147,526
14,474
8,935%
0,372%
127
161
210,407
-49,407
-30,688%
1,279%
128
206
268,216
-62,216
-30,202%
1,258%
129
266
300,845
-34,845
-13,099%
0,546%
130
322
358,749
-36,749
-11,413%
0,476%
131
184
253,656
-69,656
-37,856%
1,577%
132
299
262,798
36,202
12,108%
0,504%
133
153
183,696
-30,696
-20,063%
0,836%
134
154
150,012
3,988
2,589%
0,108%
135
144
219,074
-75,074
-52,135%
2,172%
136
254
193,478
60,522
23,828%
0,993%
137
250
277,803
-27,803
-11,121%
0,463%
138
86
148,157
-62,157
-72,276%
3,011%
139
161
203,539
-42,539
-26,422%
1,101%
140
299
277,013
21,987
7,353%
0,306%
141
284
292,694
-8,694
-3,061%
0,128%
142
345
360,300
-15,300
-4,435%
0,185%
143
299
253,392
45,608
15,253%
0,635%
144
254
260,406
-6,406
-2,522%
0,105%
Periode
Data
Data
Error
(t)
Aktual
Ramalan
121
(�� )
189
� �)
(�
(�� − �� )
188,429
122
153
123
18,051%
Universitas Sumatera Utara