Bahan Workshop “Executive Program for Sustainable Partnership (EPSP)” | lppm.ut.ac.id
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
INDONESIA
Oleh Emil Salim
17/3/2016- 21/2/2017- 8/8/2017
[email protected]
1
Human influence on the earth system is now so large, that a new geologic epoch
(the Anthropocene) has begun. We no li e in a Full World
Business as usual is not an option
PLANETARY BOUNDARIES: THERE ARE
FUNDAMENTAL ECOLOGICAL CONSTRAINTS
Rockström, J., et al. 2009. A
safe operating space for
humanity. Nature 461:472475
Steffen, W., J. Rockström,
and R. Costanza. 2011. How
Defining Planetary
Boundaries Can Transform
Our Approach to Growth.
Solutions. Vol 2, No. 3, May
2011
The Sustainable
and Desirable
“doughnut”
health
education
Elements
community
fairness
of well-being
food
& Qualitysecurity
of
identity
energy
Life
ecoservices freedom
water
income
leisure
participation
(after: K. Raworth. 2012. A safe
and just space for humanity: can
we live within the doughnut?
Oxfam International)
THE PARADIGM
OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Moving away from “single economic only track of
development” into “triple economic-social-environment (ESE) track of sustainable development:
1. Raising income with value-added of resources
through science and technology;
2. Social development by improving “accessibility
bottlenecks” (economic connectivcity, financial
services, education, health, technology, natural
resources, politics) and empowering civil society;
3. Maintaining environmental sustainability by
keeping ecological footprints below the bio- and
life support system capacity;
UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
TRANSFORMING OUR WORLD:
THE 2030 AGENDA FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
7
THE SUSTAINABILITY MAP
+
--
+
+
-- --
--
+
• Profitability
Social Benefit
8
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
INDONESIA
1. Segi Sosial (Social
Aspects);
2. Segi Ekonomi (Economic
Aspects);
3. Segi Lingkungan
(Environmental Aspects);
SEGI SOSIAL:
KEPENDUDUKAN.
SOCIAL ASPECTS:
POPULATION
9
10
11
12
13
14
Changes in Provincial Distribution of Indonesia
Population 2015 and 2030 (million people)
No.
Province
2015
2030
1.
Jawa
145,1
163,2
2.
Sumatera
55,2
65,9
3.
Sulawesi
18,7
21,9
4.
Kalimantan
15,3
19,2
5.
Bali, Nusa Tenggara
14,1
16,7
6.
Papua
4,0
5,1
7.
Maluku
2,8
3,6
15
16
Population Mobility Negative Net Migration at
All Ages with Peak 20-24 Years
1. Central Java;
2. East Java;
3. Nusa Tenggara;
4. South Sumatera;
5. North Sumatera;
6. West Sumatera;
7. Lampung;
8. South Sulawesi;
9. Maluku.
Groups of District/ Cities according the Percentage of The Poor (Along the X Line)
And The Percentage of Budget Allocation for Poverty Eradication,
Province of Central Java. 2014
17
Harga beras domestik lebih
tinggi daripada harga
internasional, dan naik
terus. Namun,
kesejahteraan petani
menurun.
Harga grosir beras domestik
1,7 kali di atas harga
internasional
Kenaikan harga beras tidak
berasosiasi dengan
kesejahteraan petani yang
lebih tinggi
Harga ritel domestik naik
14% Persen sejak Okt
2014
Sementara, upah riil buruh
tani dan NTP terus
menurun
14
%
11,000
13,500
9014.04
10,000
8141.33
13,125
Upa
h
102.87
38,955
38,600
38,400
5221
4445
5,000
Rp/ari
12,900
7,000
12,700
Jun-17
Feb-17
Apr-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Feb-16
Apr-16
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Feb-15
Apr-15
Oct-14
38,000
37,600
37,400
37,200
12,100
37,000
11,900
11,700
Harga Beras Thai Broken 15%, wholesale
38,200
37,800
12,500
12,300
Dec-14
4,000
2,3%
38,800
13,100
8,000
6,000
39,000
13,300
Rp/kg
Rp/kg
9,000
NT
P
103.5
103
102.5
102
100.53
101.5
101
100.5
100
99.5
99
98.5
37,39698
11,522
11,500
Upah Riil Buruh Tani (sumbu kiri)
Harga Beras IR-64 II, wholesale
NTP (sumbu kanan)
Sumber: BPS, CEIC, PIBC.
4%
Bagaimana cara
mensejahterakan petani?
19
SEGI EKONOMI
1. Middle Income Trap = if country
stays for long in same income
level;
2. Peranan Total Faktor Produktifitas;
Output per factors production
growing
3. Pengembangan Sumber Daya
Manusia; Human Resources
Development;
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
SEGI LINGKUNGAN
1. Pendekatan Green Growth Approach;
2. Koreksi “Kegagalan Pasar” Market
failures correction;
3. Peta-jalan memberi nilai pada modal
lingkungan, road-map to value
environmental capital ,
Within this
bigger
framework, of
course
Ensuring
compatibility and
complementarity
between economic
and environmental
sustainability
Economic
sustainability
Ensuring that
economic
prosperity is
shared and
inclusive
Social
sustainability
Green
development
agenda
Environmen
tal sustainability
Reinforcing the synergies between
environmental sustainability and
social goals
Enhanced
quality of
indicators
LOWER ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINTS WITH
HIGHER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
TOWARDS INCLUSIVE MARKET APPROACH
Model Nested SDGs
(Rockstrom dan Sukhdev, 2016)
• SDGs menggunakan logika
nested, bukan triple
bottom line.
• Dengan logika nested,
maka Tujuan-tujuan SDGs
tak bisa dipisah-pisahkan.
• Economy adalah bagian
dari society, dan keduanya
adalah bagian dari
biosphere. Pemenuhan
kebutuhan ekonomi dan
sosial hanya bisa
dilakukan di dalam
planetary boundaries.
Incentives
Specific fiscal policy to support biodiversity conservation
Compensation for set aside area such as conservation areas and HCV within
corporate’s land
Direct biodiversity protection compensation
Removal of perverse subsidies from EXISTING POLICIES
Market-based incentives
Biodiversity related performance-based reward system for corporate sector
Cost/pricing arrangements
Innovative financing
Biodiversity off set markets (may be relevant under certain situation)
GDM (potential for Indonesia ? Any position)
Phylanthropic
Debt for Nature Swap (untapped potentials !)
Making hidden external costs and benefits visible
Externalities = Major cause of Market Failure
Market Failure = Price Mechanism does not take into account Social C/B on
production and consumption
Non Exclusive/Non
rivalry in consumption
Positive when
Social Benefit ►Private
Benefit
“o ial Cost ≠ P i ate
Cost
(the truth value of
social opportunity cost)
Addressing
Externalities provides
rationale public policy
intervention
35
A framework for developing and selecting indicators
Inputs and Natural
Assets
Production and
productivity
Outputs and
well-being
Water (volume and quality of freshwater)
Forest and marine resources (ha forest, tonnes of
fish)
Mineral/energy resources (e.g. gas reserves)
Biodiversity (protected areas, species)
Energy intensity (kWh per unit of GDP
Material intensity (tonnes per unit of GDP)
Waste (percent collected and recycled)
Innovation (R&D, labour productivity)
Health (death / illnesses from air pollution)
Risk (exposure to natural disasters)
Water (availability of clean drinking water,
freshwater quality)
Ecosystem services (recreation, aesthetic value)
Source: Green Growth Knowledge Platform: Moving Towards a Common Approach on Green Growth
Indicators
36
Impact pathway of an economy that does value
natural capital
Source: adapted from van Paddenburg, Bassi, Buter, Cosslett and Dean (2012, p.24)
37
MENANGGAPI MASA DEPAN
Menjelang 2045 kita hadapi depletion of
resources/energy requiring direction into:
Resource enrichment naikkan nilai-tambah;
Terutama renewable & bio-diversity natural
resources beserta renewable energy;
Kebijakan ekonomi tertuju pada hilangkan distorsi
harga renewable-versus-non renewable resources;
Human-resource development with ScienceTechnology-Engineering-Mathematics-Social
Science capacity;
38
FRONTIER BARU PEMBANGUNAN
Pembangunan menjelang 2045 dipengaruhi oleh
pengembangan advanced technology, a.l.
Nano-technology;
A tifi ial I tellige e dl sea hi g, easo i g,
pla i g da lea i g ;
Tu uh ya desig d i e ultu e dg desig
thi ki g e aduka desig -technology-busiess yg e akup e ploy e t-company-custoe sebagai soko-guru sustainable development;
39
LEAN THINKING
Seeking to manage the life cycle of any product/servic
along the following 5 principles of lean thinking:
1. Understand the value created by each product;
2. Identify the value stream for each product;
3. Make value flow withouh interruptions, reduce
waste of time, money, energy, and other resources;
4. Encourage customers to pull value through the entire system, use modern technique of communication
5. Pursue perfection at every stage;
40
FROM DEMATERIALIZATION TOWARD
SOCIAL ENTERPRENEURSHIP
1. Dematerializatin: More value, less products;
2. Transfrom the goods into they sell into services;
f o selli g a s to p o idi g o ility ;
As the e olutio of sustai a ility p ofits i effe t
become a reward for enhancing public goods = the
ennobled enterprises– merging private profit and
pu li good Ia Da is , o e lappi g i le of p ofit
a d i le of pu li good = e o led e te p ise,
social enterpreneurship;
41
BACAAN & KUTIPAN
1. UN-“DG, The Global Goals , Ne Yo k,
5;
2. N.Diop, World Bank, Unpublished paper on Middle Income Trap, 2015
3. Bambang Widianto, TNP2K, Sekretariat Wakil Presiden
Mengatasi Kemiskinan , Ju i
7;
4. Papers Seminar AIPI 2017: Soeryo Adiwibowo,
T e d issue Ko se asi da Kea eka aga a Hayati
da M. Mu a i , Eko o i Biodi e sity ,
5. Glo al G ee G o th I stitute, Review of Green
Growth Assessment and Extended Cost-Benefit
A alysis , March, 2016;
42
BACAAN & KUTIPAN
6. Emil Salim dan kawan2, Population Dynamics and
Sustainable Development, UFPA, Jakarta 2015;
7. www.viewsofttheworld.net. Map by Benyamin D. H
Henning;
8. Menteri Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan, P i sip
dan Kebijakan Dasar Sektor Lingkungan Hidup dan
Kehuta a , 2-4 Agustus 2017.
43
INDONESIA
Oleh Emil Salim
17/3/2016- 21/2/2017- 8/8/2017
[email protected]
1
Human influence on the earth system is now so large, that a new geologic epoch
(the Anthropocene) has begun. We no li e in a Full World
Business as usual is not an option
PLANETARY BOUNDARIES: THERE ARE
FUNDAMENTAL ECOLOGICAL CONSTRAINTS
Rockström, J., et al. 2009. A
safe operating space for
humanity. Nature 461:472475
Steffen, W., J. Rockström,
and R. Costanza. 2011. How
Defining Planetary
Boundaries Can Transform
Our Approach to Growth.
Solutions. Vol 2, No. 3, May
2011
The Sustainable
and Desirable
“doughnut”
health
education
Elements
community
fairness
of well-being
food
& Qualitysecurity
of
identity
energy
Life
ecoservices freedom
water
income
leisure
participation
(after: K. Raworth. 2012. A safe
and just space for humanity: can
we live within the doughnut?
Oxfam International)
THE PARADIGM
OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Moving away from “single economic only track of
development” into “triple economic-social-environment (ESE) track of sustainable development:
1. Raising income with value-added of resources
through science and technology;
2. Social development by improving “accessibility
bottlenecks” (economic connectivcity, financial
services, education, health, technology, natural
resources, politics) and empowering civil society;
3. Maintaining environmental sustainability by
keeping ecological footprints below the bio- and
life support system capacity;
UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
TRANSFORMING OUR WORLD:
THE 2030 AGENDA FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
7
THE SUSTAINABILITY MAP
+
--
+
+
-- --
--
+
• Profitability
Social Benefit
8
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
INDONESIA
1. Segi Sosial (Social
Aspects);
2. Segi Ekonomi (Economic
Aspects);
3. Segi Lingkungan
(Environmental Aspects);
SEGI SOSIAL:
KEPENDUDUKAN.
SOCIAL ASPECTS:
POPULATION
9
10
11
12
13
14
Changes in Provincial Distribution of Indonesia
Population 2015 and 2030 (million people)
No.
Province
2015
2030
1.
Jawa
145,1
163,2
2.
Sumatera
55,2
65,9
3.
Sulawesi
18,7
21,9
4.
Kalimantan
15,3
19,2
5.
Bali, Nusa Tenggara
14,1
16,7
6.
Papua
4,0
5,1
7.
Maluku
2,8
3,6
15
16
Population Mobility Negative Net Migration at
All Ages with Peak 20-24 Years
1. Central Java;
2. East Java;
3. Nusa Tenggara;
4. South Sumatera;
5. North Sumatera;
6. West Sumatera;
7. Lampung;
8. South Sulawesi;
9. Maluku.
Groups of District/ Cities according the Percentage of The Poor (Along the X Line)
And The Percentage of Budget Allocation for Poverty Eradication,
Province of Central Java. 2014
17
Harga beras domestik lebih
tinggi daripada harga
internasional, dan naik
terus. Namun,
kesejahteraan petani
menurun.
Harga grosir beras domestik
1,7 kali di atas harga
internasional
Kenaikan harga beras tidak
berasosiasi dengan
kesejahteraan petani yang
lebih tinggi
Harga ritel domestik naik
14% Persen sejak Okt
2014
Sementara, upah riil buruh
tani dan NTP terus
menurun
14
%
11,000
13,500
9014.04
10,000
8141.33
13,125
Upa
h
102.87
38,955
38,600
38,400
5221
4445
5,000
Rp/ari
12,900
7,000
12,700
Jun-17
Feb-17
Apr-17
Oct-16
Dec-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Feb-16
Apr-16
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Feb-15
Apr-15
Oct-14
38,000
37,600
37,400
37,200
12,100
37,000
11,900
11,700
Harga Beras Thai Broken 15%, wholesale
38,200
37,800
12,500
12,300
Dec-14
4,000
2,3%
38,800
13,100
8,000
6,000
39,000
13,300
Rp/kg
Rp/kg
9,000
NT
P
103.5
103
102.5
102
100.53
101.5
101
100.5
100
99.5
99
98.5
37,39698
11,522
11,500
Upah Riil Buruh Tani (sumbu kiri)
Harga Beras IR-64 II, wholesale
NTP (sumbu kanan)
Sumber: BPS, CEIC, PIBC.
4%
Bagaimana cara
mensejahterakan petani?
19
SEGI EKONOMI
1. Middle Income Trap = if country
stays for long in same income
level;
2. Peranan Total Faktor Produktifitas;
Output per factors production
growing
3. Pengembangan Sumber Daya
Manusia; Human Resources
Development;
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
SEGI LINGKUNGAN
1. Pendekatan Green Growth Approach;
2. Koreksi “Kegagalan Pasar” Market
failures correction;
3. Peta-jalan memberi nilai pada modal
lingkungan, road-map to value
environmental capital ,
Within this
bigger
framework, of
course
Ensuring
compatibility and
complementarity
between economic
and environmental
sustainability
Economic
sustainability
Ensuring that
economic
prosperity is
shared and
inclusive
Social
sustainability
Green
development
agenda
Environmen
tal sustainability
Reinforcing the synergies between
environmental sustainability and
social goals
Enhanced
quality of
indicators
LOWER ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINTS WITH
HIGHER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
TOWARDS INCLUSIVE MARKET APPROACH
Model Nested SDGs
(Rockstrom dan Sukhdev, 2016)
• SDGs menggunakan logika
nested, bukan triple
bottom line.
• Dengan logika nested,
maka Tujuan-tujuan SDGs
tak bisa dipisah-pisahkan.
• Economy adalah bagian
dari society, dan keduanya
adalah bagian dari
biosphere. Pemenuhan
kebutuhan ekonomi dan
sosial hanya bisa
dilakukan di dalam
planetary boundaries.
Incentives
Specific fiscal policy to support biodiversity conservation
Compensation for set aside area such as conservation areas and HCV within
corporate’s land
Direct biodiversity protection compensation
Removal of perverse subsidies from EXISTING POLICIES
Market-based incentives
Biodiversity related performance-based reward system for corporate sector
Cost/pricing arrangements
Innovative financing
Biodiversity off set markets (may be relevant under certain situation)
GDM (potential for Indonesia ? Any position)
Phylanthropic
Debt for Nature Swap (untapped potentials !)
Making hidden external costs and benefits visible
Externalities = Major cause of Market Failure
Market Failure = Price Mechanism does not take into account Social C/B on
production and consumption
Non Exclusive/Non
rivalry in consumption
Positive when
Social Benefit ►Private
Benefit
“o ial Cost ≠ P i ate
Cost
(the truth value of
social opportunity cost)
Addressing
Externalities provides
rationale public policy
intervention
35
A framework for developing and selecting indicators
Inputs and Natural
Assets
Production and
productivity
Outputs and
well-being
Water (volume and quality of freshwater)
Forest and marine resources (ha forest, tonnes of
fish)
Mineral/energy resources (e.g. gas reserves)
Biodiversity (protected areas, species)
Energy intensity (kWh per unit of GDP
Material intensity (tonnes per unit of GDP)
Waste (percent collected and recycled)
Innovation (R&D, labour productivity)
Health (death / illnesses from air pollution)
Risk (exposure to natural disasters)
Water (availability of clean drinking water,
freshwater quality)
Ecosystem services (recreation, aesthetic value)
Source: Green Growth Knowledge Platform: Moving Towards a Common Approach on Green Growth
Indicators
36
Impact pathway of an economy that does value
natural capital
Source: adapted from van Paddenburg, Bassi, Buter, Cosslett and Dean (2012, p.24)
37
MENANGGAPI MASA DEPAN
Menjelang 2045 kita hadapi depletion of
resources/energy requiring direction into:
Resource enrichment naikkan nilai-tambah;
Terutama renewable & bio-diversity natural
resources beserta renewable energy;
Kebijakan ekonomi tertuju pada hilangkan distorsi
harga renewable-versus-non renewable resources;
Human-resource development with ScienceTechnology-Engineering-Mathematics-Social
Science capacity;
38
FRONTIER BARU PEMBANGUNAN
Pembangunan menjelang 2045 dipengaruhi oleh
pengembangan advanced technology, a.l.
Nano-technology;
A tifi ial I tellige e dl sea hi g, easo i g,
pla i g da lea i g ;
Tu uh ya desig d i e ultu e dg desig
thi ki g e aduka desig -technology-busiess yg e akup e ploy e t-company-custoe sebagai soko-guru sustainable development;
39
LEAN THINKING
Seeking to manage the life cycle of any product/servic
along the following 5 principles of lean thinking:
1. Understand the value created by each product;
2. Identify the value stream for each product;
3. Make value flow withouh interruptions, reduce
waste of time, money, energy, and other resources;
4. Encourage customers to pull value through the entire system, use modern technique of communication
5. Pursue perfection at every stage;
40
FROM DEMATERIALIZATION TOWARD
SOCIAL ENTERPRENEURSHIP
1. Dematerializatin: More value, less products;
2. Transfrom the goods into they sell into services;
f o selli g a s to p o idi g o ility ;
As the e olutio of sustai a ility p ofits i effe t
become a reward for enhancing public goods = the
ennobled enterprises– merging private profit and
pu li good Ia Da is , o e lappi g i le of p ofit
a d i le of pu li good = e o led e te p ise,
social enterpreneurship;
41
BACAAN & KUTIPAN
1. UN-“DG, The Global Goals , Ne Yo k,
5;
2. N.Diop, World Bank, Unpublished paper on Middle Income Trap, 2015
3. Bambang Widianto, TNP2K, Sekretariat Wakil Presiden
Mengatasi Kemiskinan , Ju i
7;
4. Papers Seminar AIPI 2017: Soeryo Adiwibowo,
T e d issue Ko se asi da Kea eka aga a Hayati
da M. Mu a i , Eko o i Biodi e sity ,
5. Glo al G ee G o th I stitute, Review of Green
Growth Assessment and Extended Cost-Benefit
A alysis , March, 2016;
42
BACAAN & KUTIPAN
6. Emil Salim dan kawan2, Population Dynamics and
Sustainable Development, UFPA, Jakarta 2015;
7. www.viewsofttheworld.net. Map by Benyamin D. H
Henning;
8. Menteri Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan, P i sip
dan Kebijakan Dasar Sektor Lingkungan Hidup dan
Kehuta a , 2-4 Agustus 2017.
43