Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter edisi Mei 2013
TINJAUAN KEBIJAKAN MONETE R
Mei 2013
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|1
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|2
Indeks
170
Kadin-Roy Morgan
Peralatan RT
150
Total
Lainnya
Sk.Cadang
Otomotif
Mamin
Bensin
Rekreasi
AC Nielsen
130
BI
BPS
110
Danareksa
90
Komunikasi
70
50
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2011
2012
Sumber: BI, BPS, Roy Morgan, Danareksa, AC Nielsen
Q4
Q1
Q2*
2013
Jan
Feb Maret Apr
2013
penjualan
mobil
penjualan
eceran
penjualan
sepeda motor
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|3
Investasi - SKDU
Indeks Tendensi Bisnis
(sk.kanan)
IPI Prod.Mineral non
Metal (sk.kanan)
Konsumsi Semen
(sk.kanan)
PMTB:Bangunan (sk.kanan)
Impor Barang
Penjualan Alat
Konstruksi
Konstruksi Berat
PMTB Mesin
Konsumsi
Listrik:Industri
Impor Mesin&Peralatan
(sk.kanan)
IPI Mesin
Impor Mesin kec.
Transportasi (sk.kanan)
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|4
% yoy
2011
Q3
2012
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
,
Q1
,
Q4
2013
Jan
% yoy
Feb Mar
50
40
25
PDB Ekspor
(sk.kanan)
30
15
20
Pertanian
10
5
Manufaktur
Total
0
-10
-5
Pertambangan
-15
-20
-30
-25
2011
% yoy
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2013
,
Q1
,
2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
50
40
30
20
10
0
Bhn Baku
PDB Impor
Total
-10
Brg Konsumsi
-20
Brg Modal
-30
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|5
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|6
%, yoy
%, yoy
CPI
Core
20
Administered Prices
Volatile Food
14
13.03
5.57
8
4.12
2
2.72
-4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
-10
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|7
80
%
Kapasitas Produksi Terpakai Industri Pengolahan
(SKDU)
75
70
65
60
TwTw
ITw
IITw
IIITw
IVTw
ITw
IITw
IIITw
IVTw
ITw
IITw
IIITw
IVTw
ITw
II Tw
IIITw
ITw
IITw
IIITw
IVTw
ITw
IITw
IIITw
IVTw
ITw
IITw
IIITw
IVTw
ITw
IITw
IIITw
IVTw
ITw
IITw
III IV
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|8
%,yoy
250
Horti-20 Komoditas (Pengaturan RIPH & Penutupan Impor Sementara)
Horti-39 Komoditas (Pengaturan titik masuk, aspek keamanan, dll)
200
Komposit bawang
Deflasi
Bawang Putih
Beras
Tomat
Cabe Rawit
Daging Ayam
Telur Ayam
Inflasi
Bawang Merah
Apel
Jeruk
Anggur
Cabe Merah
0,18
0,06
0,03
0,03
0,02
0,01
150
100
50
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-08
Oct-08
-50
Jan-08
0
0,07
0,04
0,03
0,01
0,01
Apr-08
Komoditas
Apr-13
Kontribusi (%, mtm)
-100
Sumber: BPS
Komoditas
Inflasi
Rokok kretek filter
Bahan Bakar Rumah Tangga
Rokok kretek filter
Apr-13
%, mtm Kontribusi (%, mtm)
0,44
0,33
0,41
0,01
0,01
0,01
Sumber: BPS
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|9
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 10
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 11
200
%
Rp T
5.75
180
Vol
DFO/N
O/N(Skala
(RHS)
Vol DF
Kanan)
5.6
Vol PUAB
(Skala Kanan)
Vol
PUABO/N
O/N
160
BI Rate
140
rPUAB O/N
5.1
120
rDF O/N
100
4.6
80
60
4.1
rPUAB : 4,17%
Avg Vol DF: Rp51,1 T
RRT Vol PUAB : Rp11,7 T
20
5-Apr-13
25-Apr-13
16-Mar-13
4-Feb-13
24-Feb-13
15-Jan-13
6-Dec-12
26-Dec-12
16-Nov-12
7-Oct-12
27-Oct-12
17-Sep-12
8-Aug-12
28-Aug-12
19-Jul-12
9-Jun-12
29-Jun-12
30-Apr-12
20-May-12
10-Apr-12
0
21-Mar-12
3.6
40
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 12
11.99
6
Mar-13
4
Selisih rKredit - rDepo1:
6.48%
Suku Bunga (%)
BI Rate
Jul-12
Jul-11
Jan-13
Credit rate
Sb LPS
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-09
11.24
11.29
0
11.27
11.27
11.44
11.49
12
1
5,5
5,5
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-07
Spread (Rhs)
BI rate
Jan-08
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jan-05
5
3
2
Per Mar 2013
korelasi: rLPS dan rDep :0.89
korelasi ; BI rate dan rDep: 0.85
7
11.49
9
13.28
Feb-13
13
5
11
13.22
Jan-13
13.58
Dec-12
7
13.40
%
8
11.45
13
14
9
%
%
15
11
Sb KMK
Sb KI
Sb KK
Deposit rate
2012
2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Agt
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
6.00
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
Penjaminan Deposito
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
Dep 1 bulan (rata-rata tertimbang)
6.26
5.97
5.66
5.42
5.35
5.39
5.39
5.42
5.40
5.49
5.42
5.58
5.49
5.43
5.51
11.44
Kredit Modal Kerja (KMK)
12.14
12.11
12.01
11.86
11.78
11.79
11.78
11.73
11.70
11.68
11.61
11.49
11.49
11.45
Kredit Investasi (KI)
11.73
11.69
11.62
11.56
11.51
11.46
11.42
11.35
11.36
11.29
11.24
11.27
11.29
11.27
11.24
Kredit Konsumsi (KK)
14.14
14.15
14.13
14.10
14.03
13.90
13.92
13.69
13.67
13.60
13.53
13.58
13.40
13.22
13.28
.
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 13
30
14
%, yoy
%, yoy
M2
M1
BI Rate (RHS)
25
12
20
10
15
14.0
13.4
8
10
5
6
Per Mar 2013
0
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
4
2012
Indikator
Utama
2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Juni
Jul
Agt
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
Total Aset
(T Rp)
3,598.7
3,628.1
3,708.7
3,745.1
3,827.4
3,891.1
3,902.5
3,923.8
4,009.4
4,028.8
4,103.5
4,262.6
4,211.0
4,237.1
4,313.8
DPK
(T Rp)
Kredit *
(T Rp)
2,770.6
2,160.2
2,763.9
2,203.0
2,826.0
2,266.2
2,841.4
2,317.2
2,909.0
2,386.1
2,955.8
2,452.9
2,961.4
2,470.1
2,984.1
2,510.6
3,050.0
2,555.9
3,070.6
2,585.4
3,130.5
2,631.0
3,225.2
2,742.7
3,204.5
2,687.4
3,207.3
2,742.7
3,243.1
2,792.7
86.1
LDR*
(%)
78.8
79.7
80.2
81.6
82.0
83.0
83.4
84.1
83.8
84.2
84.0
84.7
83.9
85.5
NPLs Gross*
(%)
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.0
2.0
2.0
CAR
(%)
18.4
18.4
18.3
18.0
17.9
17.5
17.3
17.3
17.4
17.3
17.4
17.4
19.2
19.2
18.9
NIM
ROA
* tanpa channeling
(%)
(%)
6.1
3.7
5.4
3.6
5.2
3.1
5.3
3.0
5.3
3.0
5.4
3.2
5.4
3.1
5.4
3.1
5.5
3.1
5.5
3.1
5.5
3.1
5.5
3.1
5.5
3.1
5.3
2.9
5.4
3.0
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 14
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
%
Jan-08
Mar-08
Mei-08
Juli-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
Mei-09
Juli-09
Sept-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
Per Mar 2013
Kredit
DPK
22.16
50
40
30
20
10
% yoy
Per Maret 13
Apr-09
Total Kredit
KI
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
KMK
KK
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
10
8
7
6
14.76 5
0
10
-10
Jun-08
Nov-08
BI rate (RHS) 9
5.75
4
3
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
Jan-08
23,2
23,7
18,9
| 15
6000
5000
11
Property
10
Agriculture
Trade
9
4000
JCI
BI RATE
Misc. Industry
7
Basic Industry
8 %
7
0,10
Deviasi Apr '13 and Maret '13
April 2013
Maret 2013
6
0,05
0,00
5
-5,5%
3,8%
Finance
1,4%
Mining
5
Infrastructure
4
IHSG
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
0
8,5%
8
6
1000
0,7%
Consumption
3000
2000
4,7%
-9,3%
-1,2%
3,2%
Monthly Changes
1,9%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
%
9,50
10
9
Yield SBN
8
Inflation
7
4
-0,05
5,50
6
5
3
-0,10
2
-0,15
1
4
3,39
3,48
3,37
Philippine
Malaysia
3
2
0
-0,20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Tenor
9
10
15
20
30
1
0
ThaiLand
Vietnam
Indonesia
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 16
Short Term
Long Term
15.0
Medium Term
Imbal hasil SBN (skala kanan)
10.0
10.0
9.0
7.3
5.2 5.8 5.3
5.0
5.7
5.5
4.1
4.1
3.7
2.8
4.4
3.5
8.0
2.0
1.4
1.4
0.6
0.0
7.0
(1.6)
(1.9)
(2.9)
(2.9)
(5.0)
(2.0)
(3.9)
(2.8)
6.0
(5.6)
(5.8)
(10.0)
(7.7)
(8.6)
5.0
(11.0)
(15.0)
Apr
Mar
Jan
Feb
Dec
Okt
Nov
Sept
Juli
2012
Agustus
Juni
Apr
Mei
Mar
Jan
Feb
Dec
Oct
Nov
Sept
July
2011
August
June
Apr
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
4.0
2013
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 17
SEKTOR KEUANGAN
SUKU BUNGA & SAHAM
Suku bunga SBI 9 bln 1)
Suku bunga deposito 1 bln
Suku bunga deposito 3 bln
JIBOR satu minggu 2)
IHSG Indeks 3)
Apr
Mei
Juni
2012
Agt
Jul
2013
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
3.93
5.42
6.00
3.81
4,181
4.24
5.35
5.89
3.83
3,833
4.32
5.39
5.76
4.10
3,956
4.46
5.39
5.67
4.17
4,142
4.54
5.42
5.61
4.29
4,060
4.67
5.40
5.69
4.24
4,263
4.75
5.49
5.66
4.27
4,350
4.77
5.42
5.81
4.29
4,276
4.80
5.58
5.76
4.32
4,317
4.84
5.49
5.89
4.30
4,454
4.86
5.43
5.92
4.28
4,796
4.87
5.51
5.64
4.28
4,941
5,034
BESARAN MONETER (miliar Rp)
Uang Primer
M1(C+D)
Uang Kartal (C)
Uang giral (D)
Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S)
Uang kuasi (T)
Uang kuasi (Rupiah)
Deposito
Tabungan Total
Deposito (Valas)
Simpanan Giro Valuta Asing
Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S)
596,592
720,924
290,861
430,064
2,927,259
2,190,885
1,887,124
1,020,792
866,332
148,486
155,275
15,450
604,979
749,450
294,768
454,682
2,992,057
2,227,527
1,900,824
1,027,151
873,673
159,186
167,516
15,081
627,359
779,416
314,670
464,746
3,050,355
2,254,329
1,915,625
1,016,060
899,565
164,762
173,942
16,610
634,993
771,792
315,375
456,417
3,054,534
2,269,809
1,926,046
1,017,021
909,025
170,722
173,041
12,932
657,955
772,429
327,059
445,370
3,089,011
2,304,474
1,960,339
1,030,262
930,077
171,517
172,617
12,108
638,869
795,518
325,566
469,952
3,125,533
2,318,559
1,968,062
1,030,830
937,232
180,380
170,117
11,457
648,106
774,983
326,119
448,864
3,161,726
2,376,102
2,009,812
1,060,357
949,456
187,859
178,430
10,640
647,979
801,403
327,069
474,334
3,205,129
2,393,320
2,022,975
1,058,871
964,105
190,178
180,166
10,406
704,843
841,721
361,967
479,755
3,304,645
2,452,503
2,092,654
1,066,527
1,026,127
177,508
182,341
10,420
664,007
787,916
326,885
461,031
3,265,869
2,467,124
2,095,427
1,079,275
1,016,152
173,616
198,081
10,829
655,486
786,606
321,541
465,065
3,277,426
2,479,959
2,105,861
1,098,083
1,007,778
169,755
204,343
10,861
664,935
807,571
328,684
478,886
3,277,426
2,479,959
2,123,895
1,123,533
1,000,362
182,383
190,841
12,132
-
Tagihan kepada Sektor Lainnya
Tagihan pada Sektor Swasta
2,519,946
2,230,960
2,586,786
2,289,504
2,653,871
2,361,812
2,668,447
2,378,914
2,696,876
2,406,188
2,758,170
2,471,071
2,791,363
2,504,939
2,833,571
2,504,347
2,920,934
2,584,819
2,897,711
2,556,620
2,921,209
2,571,080
2,969,119
2,615,049
-
0.21
4.50
0.07
4.45
0.62
4.53
0.70
4.56
0.95
4.58
0.01
4.31
0.16
4.61
0.07
4.32
0.54
4.30
1.03
4.57
0.75
5.31
0.63
5.90
-0.10
5.57
9,190
12,698
12,381
9,565
13,315
13,363
9,480
12,420
12,918
9,485
13,168
13,282
9,560
11,238
10,366
9,588
13,011
11,733
9,615
12,636
13,053
9,605
13,202
12,479
9,670
12,313
11,715
9,698
12,386
11,608
9,667
11,897
11,619
9,719
-
9,722
-
2)
2)
HARGA
Inflasi bulanan (%, mtm)
Inflasi tahunan (%, yoy)
SEKTOR EKSTERNAL
Rp/USD (akhir periode, nilai tengah)
Ekspor Barang Non migas (f.o.b, juta USD) 4)
Impor Barang Non migas (c & f, juta USD) 4)
INDIKATOR KUARTALAN
Pertumbuhan PDB (%, yoy)
Konsumsi
Investasi (PMTB)
Perubahan Stok
Ekspor
Impor
1) minggu terakhir
Tw.II
2012
Tw.III
Tw.IV
2013
Tw.I
6.4
5.6
12.5
108.7
2.6
11.3
6.2
4.5
9.8
-9.5
-2.6
-0.2
6.1
3.9
7.3
94.6
0.5
6.8
6.0
4.7
5.9
10.2
3.4
-0.4
2) rata-rata tertimbang
3) penutupan pada akhir periode
4) closed file
Sumber : Bank Indonesia, kecuali data pasar modal (BAPEPAM), IHK, ekspor/impor dan PDB dari BPS
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 18
Mei 2013
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|1
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|2
Indeks
170
Kadin-Roy Morgan
Peralatan RT
150
Total
Lainnya
Sk.Cadang
Otomotif
Mamin
Bensin
Rekreasi
AC Nielsen
130
BI
BPS
110
Danareksa
90
Komunikasi
70
50
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2011
2012
Sumber: BI, BPS, Roy Morgan, Danareksa, AC Nielsen
Q4
Q1
Q2*
2013
Jan
Feb Maret Apr
2013
penjualan
mobil
penjualan
eceran
penjualan
sepeda motor
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|3
Investasi - SKDU
Indeks Tendensi Bisnis
(sk.kanan)
IPI Prod.Mineral non
Metal (sk.kanan)
Konsumsi Semen
(sk.kanan)
PMTB:Bangunan (sk.kanan)
Impor Barang
Penjualan Alat
Konstruksi
Konstruksi Berat
PMTB Mesin
Konsumsi
Listrik:Industri
Impor Mesin&Peralatan
(sk.kanan)
IPI Mesin
Impor Mesin kec.
Transportasi (sk.kanan)
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|4
% yoy
2011
Q3
2012
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
,
Q1
,
Q4
2013
Jan
% yoy
Feb Mar
50
40
25
PDB Ekspor
(sk.kanan)
30
15
20
Pertanian
10
5
Manufaktur
Total
0
-10
-5
Pertambangan
-15
-20
-30
-25
2011
% yoy
Q3
Q4
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2013
,
Q1
,
2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
50
40
30
20
10
0
Bhn Baku
PDB Impor
Total
-10
Brg Konsumsi
-20
Brg Modal
-30
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|5
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|6
%, yoy
%, yoy
CPI
Core
20
Administered Prices
Volatile Food
14
13.03
5.57
8
4.12
2
2.72
-4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
-10
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|7
80
%
Kapasitas Produksi Terpakai Industri Pengolahan
(SKDU)
75
70
65
60
TwTw
ITw
IITw
IIITw
IVTw
ITw
IITw
IIITw
IVTw
ITw
IITw
IIITw
IVTw
ITw
II Tw
IIITw
ITw
IITw
IIITw
IVTw
ITw
IITw
IIITw
IVTw
ITw
IITw
IIITw
IVTw
ITw
IITw
IIITw
IVTw
ITw
IITw
III IV
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|8
%,yoy
250
Horti-20 Komoditas (Pengaturan RIPH & Penutupan Impor Sementara)
Horti-39 Komoditas (Pengaturan titik masuk, aspek keamanan, dll)
200
Komposit bawang
Deflasi
Bawang Putih
Beras
Tomat
Cabe Rawit
Daging Ayam
Telur Ayam
Inflasi
Bawang Merah
Apel
Jeruk
Anggur
Cabe Merah
0,18
0,06
0,03
0,03
0,02
0,01
150
100
50
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-08
Oct-08
-50
Jan-08
0
0,07
0,04
0,03
0,01
0,01
Apr-08
Komoditas
Apr-13
Kontribusi (%, mtm)
-100
Sumber: BPS
Komoditas
Inflasi
Rokok kretek filter
Bahan Bakar Rumah Tangga
Rokok kretek filter
Apr-13
%, mtm Kontribusi (%, mtm)
0,44
0,33
0,41
0,01
0,01
0,01
Sumber: BPS
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
|9
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 10
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 11
200
%
Rp T
5.75
180
Vol
DFO/N
O/N(Skala
(RHS)
Vol DF
Kanan)
5.6
Vol PUAB
(Skala Kanan)
Vol
PUABO/N
O/N
160
BI Rate
140
rPUAB O/N
5.1
120
rDF O/N
100
4.6
80
60
4.1
rPUAB : 4,17%
Avg Vol DF: Rp51,1 T
RRT Vol PUAB : Rp11,7 T
20
5-Apr-13
25-Apr-13
16-Mar-13
4-Feb-13
24-Feb-13
15-Jan-13
6-Dec-12
26-Dec-12
16-Nov-12
7-Oct-12
27-Oct-12
17-Sep-12
8-Aug-12
28-Aug-12
19-Jul-12
9-Jun-12
29-Jun-12
30-Apr-12
20-May-12
10-Apr-12
0
21-Mar-12
3.6
40
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 12
11.99
6
Mar-13
4
Selisih rKredit - rDepo1:
6.48%
Suku Bunga (%)
BI Rate
Jul-12
Jul-11
Jan-13
Credit rate
Sb LPS
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-09
11.24
11.29
0
11.27
11.27
11.44
11.49
12
1
5,5
5,5
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-07
Spread (Rhs)
BI rate
Jan-08
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jan-05
5
3
2
Per Mar 2013
korelasi: rLPS dan rDep :0.89
korelasi ; BI rate dan rDep: 0.85
7
11.49
9
13.28
Feb-13
13
5
11
13.22
Jan-13
13.58
Dec-12
7
13.40
%
8
11.45
13
14
9
%
%
15
11
Sb KMK
Sb KI
Sb KK
Deposit rate
2012
2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Agt
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
6.00
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.75
Penjaminan Deposito
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
Dep 1 bulan (rata-rata tertimbang)
6.26
5.97
5.66
5.42
5.35
5.39
5.39
5.42
5.40
5.49
5.42
5.58
5.49
5.43
5.51
11.44
Kredit Modal Kerja (KMK)
12.14
12.11
12.01
11.86
11.78
11.79
11.78
11.73
11.70
11.68
11.61
11.49
11.49
11.45
Kredit Investasi (KI)
11.73
11.69
11.62
11.56
11.51
11.46
11.42
11.35
11.36
11.29
11.24
11.27
11.29
11.27
11.24
Kredit Konsumsi (KK)
14.14
14.15
14.13
14.10
14.03
13.90
13.92
13.69
13.67
13.60
13.53
13.58
13.40
13.22
13.28
.
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 13
30
14
%, yoy
%, yoy
M2
M1
BI Rate (RHS)
25
12
20
10
15
14.0
13.4
8
10
5
6
Per Mar 2013
0
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
4
2012
Indikator
Utama
2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Juni
Jul
Agt
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
Total Aset
(T Rp)
3,598.7
3,628.1
3,708.7
3,745.1
3,827.4
3,891.1
3,902.5
3,923.8
4,009.4
4,028.8
4,103.5
4,262.6
4,211.0
4,237.1
4,313.8
DPK
(T Rp)
Kredit *
(T Rp)
2,770.6
2,160.2
2,763.9
2,203.0
2,826.0
2,266.2
2,841.4
2,317.2
2,909.0
2,386.1
2,955.8
2,452.9
2,961.4
2,470.1
2,984.1
2,510.6
3,050.0
2,555.9
3,070.6
2,585.4
3,130.5
2,631.0
3,225.2
2,742.7
3,204.5
2,687.4
3,207.3
2,742.7
3,243.1
2,792.7
86.1
LDR*
(%)
78.8
79.7
80.2
81.6
82.0
83.0
83.4
84.1
83.8
84.2
84.0
84.7
83.9
85.5
NPLs Gross*
(%)
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.0
2.0
2.0
CAR
(%)
18.4
18.4
18.3
18.0
17.9
17.5
17.3
17.3
17.4
17.3
17.4
17.4
19.2
19.2
18.9
NIM
ROA
* tanpa channeling
(%)
(%)
6.1
3.7
5.4
3.6
5.2
3.1
5.3
3.0
5.3
3.0
5.4
3.2
5.4
3.1
5.4
3.1
5.5
3.1
5.5
3.1
5.5
3.1
5.5
3.1
5.5
3.1
5.3
2.9
5.4
3.0
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 14
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
%
Jan-08
Mar-08
Mei-08
Juli-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
Mei-09
Juli-09
Sept-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
Per Mar 2013
Kredit
DPK
22.16
50
40
30
20
10
% yoy
Per Maret 13
Apr-09
Total Kredit
KI
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
KMK
KK
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
10
8
7
6
14.76 5
0
10
-10
Jun-08
Nov-08
BI rate (RHS) 9
5.75
4
3
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
Jan-08
23,2
23,7
18,9
| 15
6000
5000
11
Property
10
Agriculture
Trade
9
4000
JCI
BI RATE
Misc. Industry
7
Basic Industry
8 %
7
0,10
Deviasi Apr '13 and Maret '13
April 2013
Maret 2013
6
0,05
0,00
5
-5,5%
3,8%
Finance
1,4%
Mining
5
Infrastructure
4
IHSG
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
0
8,5%
8
6
1000
0,7%
Consumption
3000
2000
4,7%
-9,3%
-1,2%
3,2%
Monthly Changes
1,9%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
%
9,50
10
9
Yield SBN
8
Inflation
7
4
-0,05
5,50
6
5
3
-0,10
2
-0,15
1
4
3,39
3,48
3,37
Philippine
Malaysia
3
2
0
-0,20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Tenor
9
10
15
20
30
1
0
ThaiLand
Vietnam
Indonesia
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 16
Short Term
Long Term
15.0
Medium Term
Imbal hasil SBN (skala kanan)
10.0
10.0
9.0
7.3
5.2 5.8 5.3
5.0
5.7
5.5
4.1
4.1
3.7
2.8
4.4
3.5
8.0
2.0
1.4
1.4
0.6
0.0
7.0
(1.6)
(1.9)
(2.9)
(2.9)
(5.0)
(2.0)
(3.9)
(2.8)
6.0
(5.6)
(5.8)
(10.0)
(7.7)
(8.6)
5.0
(11.0)
(15.0)
Apr
Mar
Jan
Feb
Dec
Okt
Nov
Sept
Juli
2012
Agustus
Juni
Apr
Mei
Mar
Jan
Feb
Dec
Oct
Nov
Sept
July
2011
August
June
Apr
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
4.0
2013
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 17
SEKTOR KEUANGAN
SUKU BUNGA & SAHAM
Suku bunga SBI 9 bln 1)
Suku bunga deposito 1 bln
Suku bunga deposito 3 bln
JIBOR satu minggu 2)
IHSG Indeks 3)
Apr
Mei
Juni
2012
Agt
Jul
2013
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
3.93
5.42
6.00
3.81
4,181
4.24
5.35
5.89
3.83
3,833
4.32
5.39
5.76
4.10
3,956
4.46
5.39
5.67
4.17
4,142
4.54
5.42
5.61
4.29
4,060
4.67
5.40
5.69
4.24
4,263
4.75
5.49
5.66
4.27
4,350
4.77
5.42
5.81
4.29
4,276
4.80
5.58
5.76
4.32
4,317
4.84
5.49
5.89
4.30
4,454
4.86
5.43
5.92
4.28
4,796
4.87
5.51
5.64
4.28
4,941
5,034
BESARAN MONETER (miliar Rp)
Uang Primer
M1(C+D)
Uang Kartal (C)
Uang giral (D)
Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S)
Uang kuasi (T)
Uang kuasi (Rupiah)
Deposito
Tabungan Total
Deposito (Valas)
Simpanan Giro Valuta Asing
Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S)
596,592
720,924
290,861
430,064
2,927,259
2,190,885
1,887,124
1,020,792
866,332
148,486
155,275
15,450
604,979
749,450
294,768
454,682
2,992,057
2,227,527
1,900,824
1,027,151
873,673
159,186
167,516
15,081
627,359
779,416
314,670
464,746
3,050,355
2,254,329
1,915,625
1,016,060
899,565
164,762
173,942
16,610
634,993
771,792
315,375
456,417
3,054,534
2,269,809
1,926,046
1,017,021
909,025
170,722
173,041
12,932
657,955
772,429
327,059
445,370
3,089,011
2,304,474
1,960,339
1,030,262
930,077
171,517
172,617
12,108
638,869
795,518
325,566
469,952
3,125,533
2,318,559
1,968,062
1,030,830
937,232
180,380
170,117
11,457
648,106
774,983
326,119
448,864
3,161,726
2,376,102
2,009,812
1,060,357
949,456
187,859
178,430
10,640
647,979
801,403
327,069
474,334
3,205,129
2,393,320
2,022,975
1,058,871
964,105
190,178
180,166
10,406
704,843
841,721
361,967
479,755
3,304,645
2,452,503
2,092,654
1,066,527
1,026,127
177,508
182,341
10,420
664,007
787,916
326,885
461,031
3,265,869
2,467,124
2,095,427
1,079,275
1,016,152
173,616
198,081
10,829
655,486
786,606
321,541
465,065
3,277,426
2,479,959
2,105,861
1,098,083
1,007,778
169,755
204,343
10,861
664,935
807,571
328,684
478,886
3,277,426
2,479,959
2,123,895
1,123,533
1,000,362
182,383
190,841
12,132
-
Tagihan kepada Sektor Lainnya
Tagihan pada Sektor Swasta
2,519,946
2,230,960
2,586,786
2,289,504
2,653,871
2,361,812
2,668,447
2,378,914
2,696,876
2,406,188
2,758,170
2,471,071
2,791,363
2,504,939
2,833,571
2,504,347
2,920,934
2,584,819
2,897,711
2,556,620
2,921,209
2,571,080
2,969,119
2,615,049
-
0.21
4.50
0.07
4.45
0.62
4.53
0.70
4.56
0.95
4.58
0.01
4.31
0.16
4.61
0.07
4.32
0.54
4.30
1.03
4.57
0.75
5.31
0.63
5.90
-0.10
5.57
9,190
12,698
12,381
9,565
13,315
13,363
9,480
12,420
12,918
9,485
13,168
13,282
9,560
11,238
10,366
9,588
13,011
11,733
9,615
12,636
13,053
9,605
13,202
12,479
9,670
12,313
11,715
9,698
12,386
11,608
9,667
11,897
11,619
9,719
-
9,722
-
2)
2)
HARGA
Inflasi bulanan (%, mtm)
Inflasi tahunan (%, yoy)
SEKTOR EKSTERNAL
Rp/USD (akhir periode, nilai tengah)
Ekspor Barang Non migas (f.o.b, juta USD) 4)
Impor Barang Non migas (c & f, juta USD) 4)
INDIKATOR KUARTALAN
Pertumbuhan PDB (%, yoy)
Konsumsi
Investasi (PMTB)
Perubahan Stok
Ekspor
Impor
1) minggu terakhir
Tw.II
2012
Tw.III
Tw.IV
2013
Tw.I
6.4
5.6
12.5
108.7
2.6
11.3
6.2
4.5
9.8
-9.5
-2.6
-0.2
6.1
3.9
7.3
94.6
0.5
6.8
6.0
4.7
5.9
10.2
3.4
-0.4
2) rata-rata tertimbang
3) penutupan pada akhir periode
4) closed file
Sumber : Bank Indonesia, kecuali data pasar modal (BAPEPAM), IHK, ekspor/impor dan PDB dari BPS
Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter
| 18