HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)
HM Sampoerna
15 August 2018
(HMSP IJ)
Re-initiate coverage
BUY
Gaining ground in SKM
Stock Data
Target price (Rp)
Rp3,950
Prior TP (Rp)
Shareprice (Rp)
SKM-LT faces increasing troubles from public smoking ban and vaping
Rp3,510
Upside/downside (%)
Capitalizing HMSP’s flagship brand to capture bigger customer base
+12.5
Sharesoutstanding (m)
111
Marketcap. (US$ m)
Re-initiate at BUY with TP of Rp3,950 (based on target P/E of 32.5x)
27
Free float (%)
7.5
Avg. 6m dailyT/O (US$ m)
5.8
Minimal sign of recovery. Industry volume was in negative growth territory since
1H16, albeit moderating, declining only by 1.5% yoy in 1H18 (vs. -6.7% in 1H17).
Volume declined by 0.7% in 2Q18 (vs. 1Q18: -2.4%; 2Q17: -9.4%), signaling minor
improvement in cigarette consumption. Industry volume is expected to pick-up in 2H18
by 10% from 144.5bn in 1H18, mimicking general trend from last year (2H17: +9.5%),
as manufacturers are pilling-up inventories for year-end to avoid possibility of higher
excise in fiscal budget 2019 which to be announced next month, with expectation for
10% hikes in excise for 2019F (vs. 2018: 10.0%; 2017:10.5%; 2016: 14.2%).
Price Performance
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
-2.0
-27.6
-2.2
Relative to JCI (%)
-1.7
-15.2
-0.7
52w high/low (Rp)
SKM-LT volume growth slumped. We still expect industry volume to drop further, by
-1.5% FY18F (vs-0.9% FY17), due to further volume decline in the hand-rolled
category (SKT) (1H18: -5.1%; 1H17: -8.3%) as consumers continue to shift towards
machine made kretek (SKM) cigarette products. SKT vs SKM composition stood at
17%: 78% in 1H18 (vs. 18%: 76% in 2016). Furthermore, within the SKM category,
SKM-Low Tar (LT) category had recorded negative volume growth since last year
(1H18: -7.4%; 1H17: -6.9%), contradicting trend of rising youth smokers. SKM-LT’s
share dropped to 40.1% of market in 1H18 (vs. 42.6% in 1H17). The decline might be
due to the impact of public smoking ban that restrict people from smoking in social
environments and rising popularity of vaping, particularly in the urban areas.
5,500 - 3,280
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
HMSP-Rebase
Jul-18
JCI Index-Rebase
Major Shareholders
Phillips Morris Indonesia
92.5%
Public
7.5%
Estimate Change; Vs. Consensus
2018F
2019F
Latest EPS (Rp)
115
121
Vs. Prior EPS (%)
N/A
N/A
Vs. Consensus (%)
-2.1
-3.6
Source: Bloomberg
Putri Tobing, CFA
PT Indo Premier Sekuritas
[email protected]
+62 21 5793 1168
Aug-18
Jun-18
Jun-18
Apr-18
May-18
Apr-18
Mar-18
Jan-18
Feb-18
Jan-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Sep-17
90
Nov-17
100
Aug-17
Equity | Indonesia | Tobacco
Industry vol. might stay low as 1H18’s result was not too impressive
n.a
Aiming for bigger share. HMSP managed to book better-than-industry-performance,
recording +0.9% volume growth in 2Q18 (vs. 1Q18:-1.7%; 2Q17: -13.3%), bringing
1H18 volume to 48mn sticks, or -0.4% yoy (vs 1H17: -10.3%). Sales improved by
8.4% in 2Q18 (vs 2.5% in 1Q18; 2Q17: -5.5%), which indicated HMSP’s strong pricing
power to keep positive sales growth trends. HMSP’s market share increased to 33.2%
in 1H18 from 32.9% last year, in-line with improvement in market share of Dji Sam
Soe (DJJ). DJJ is HMSP’s flagship in the SKT category, only last year HMSP launched
DJJ Magnum Mild 16s variant under its SKM category. While, it is our view that HMSP’s
position might not too favorable compare to GGRM, due to HMSP’s lower exposure to
SKM-FF category (HMSP: 40% vs GGRM: 60%), we view HMSP’s strategy to use DJJ in
the SKM category as a positive catalyst. We expect HMSP’s position in the SKM to
improve, as HSMP has larger products portfolio, complementing its two pioneer’s
brands, Sampoerna A (SKM-FF) and Sampoerna U (SKM-LT), while at the same time
creating mid-price-SKM-product to capture bigger customer based.
Valuations. We re-initiate coverage with BUY rating and TP of Rp 3,950, which is
based on our target P/E of 32.5x, in-line with HMSP’s 5 years average. We expect sales
growth of 4.3%/5.3% FY18F/FY19F (vs. CAGR 7.1% over FY14-FY17) and GPM of
c.24% (vs. 25% over FY15-FY17), assuming 9% average increase in excise for FY19F
in our model. We expect HMSP’s EBIT margin to remain at c.16%, in-line with HMSP’s 3
years average, as we expect company to maintain its selling expense stable, as evident
in OPEX-to-sales ratio that continued to decline to 7.9% in 1H18 (vs 8.3% over FY15FY17). HMSP’s share price has underperformed the overall market index due to
industry weak sales growth. Today, stock traded at 1.5-SD below HMSP’s trading
average. Thus, any positive news could trigger share price acceleration, in our view.
Year To 31 Dec
Revenue (RpBn)
EBITDA (RpBn)
EBITDA Growth (%)
Net Profit (RpBn)
EPS (Rp)
EPS Growth (%)
Net Gearing (%)
PER (x)
PBV (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Source : HMSP, IndoPremier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
2016A
95,467
16,745
13.9
12,762
115
23.1
(14.5)
30.6
11.4
2.6
23.6
2017A
99,091
16,977
1.4
12,670
114
(0.7)
(21.7)
30.9
11.5
3.2
23.5
2018F
103,580
17,199
1.3
12,836
115
1.3
(17.0)
30.5
11.6
3.2
23.1
2019F
109,088
18,112
5.3
13,471
121
4.9
(15.9)
29.0
11.3
3.3
21.9
2020F
115,016
19,421
7.2
14,403
129
6.9
(15.6)
27.1
11.0
3.4
20.4
Share Price Closing as of : 14-August-2018
HMSP IJ Re-Initiate Coverage
Fig. 1: Indonesia’s cigarette production
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 3: Industry segmentation (%)
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 5: HMSP’s market share
Source: Indo Premier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Fig. 2: Industry breakdown (%) as of 2Q18
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 4: SKM breakdown (%)
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 6: HMSP’s market share in each segment
Source: Indo Premier
2
HMSP IJ Re-Initiate Coverage
Fig. 7: HMSP’s sales breakdown as of 1H18
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 9: HMSP’s quarterly volume trends
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 11:
Our sales and sales growth forecast
Source: Indo Premier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Fig. 8: GGRM’s sales breakdown as of 1Q18
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 10: HMSP’s quarterly sales trends
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 12:
Our gross margin forecast
Source: Indo Premier
3
HMSP IJ Re-Initiate Coverage
Fig. 13:
HMSP’s cost structure as of 1H18
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 15:
HMSP’s quarterly EBIT and EBIT margin trends
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 17:
Our EBIT and EBIT margin forecast
Source: Indo Premier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Fig. 14:
HMSP’s excise expense trends
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 16: OPEX growth trends
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 18: :
Our Earnings forecast
Source: Indo Premier
4
HMSP IJ Re-Initiate Coverage
Year To 31 Dec (RpBn)
2016A
2017A
2018F
2019F
2020F
Income Statement
Net Revenue
95,467
99,091
103,580
109,088
115,016
Cost of Sales
(71,612)
(74,875)
(79,296)
(83,149)
(87,107)
Gross Profit
23,855
24,216
24,284
25,939
27,909
SG&A Expenses
(7,834)
(8,104)
(7,935)
(8,744)
(9,472)
Operating Profit
16,020
16,112
16,349
17,195
18,438
832
791
775
775
775
Net Interest
Forex Gain (Loss)
Others-Net
0
0
0
0
0
159
(9)
(9)
(9)
(9)
Pre-Tax Income
17,011
16,894
17,115
17,961
19,204
Income Tax
(4,249)
(4,224)
(4,279)
(4,490)
(4,801)
0
0
0
0
0
12,762
12,670
12,836
13,471
14,403
Cash & Equivalent
5,056
7,501
5,868
5,598
5,654
Receivable
4,996
3,781
4,503
4,743
5,001
19,442
18,023
19,824
20,787
21,777
Minorities
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Inventory
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets - Net
Goodwill
Non Current Assets
Total Assets
4,153
4,875
3,462
3,568
3,681
33,647
34,180
33,657
34,696
36,113
6,895
6,891
6,991
7,024
6,991
60
60
60
60
60
1,843
1,947
1,947
1,947
1,947
42,508
43,141
42,718
43,790
45,174
0
0
0
0
0
Payable
3,871
3,666
0
4,157
4,355
Other Payables
2,537
2,787
2,390
2,506
2,625
ST Loans
21
29
29
29
29
6,428
6,482
6,384
6,692
7,009
66
81
81
81
81
1,839
2,465
2,465
2,465
2,465
8,333
9,027
8,929
9,238
9,555
Equity
21,549
21,531
20,914
20,914
20,914
Retained Earnings
12,626
12,582
12,875
13,638
14,705
0
0
0
0
0
34,175
34,113
33,789
34,552
35,619
42,508
43,140
42,718
43,790
45,174
Current Portion of LT Loans
Total Current Liab.
Long Term Loans
Other LT Liab.
Total Liabilities
Minority Interest
Total SHE + Minority Int.
Total Liabilities & Equity
Source : HMSP,IndoPremier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
5
HMSP IJ Re-Initiate Coverage
Year to 31 Dec
2016A
2017A
2018F
2019F
2020F
12,762
12,670
12,836
13,471
14,403
Depr. & Amortization
595
598
850
917
983
Changes in Working Capital
126
624
(821)
(1,105)
(1,152)
Cash Flow
Net Income (Excl.Extraordinary&Min.Int)
Others
Cash Flow From Operating
Capital Expenditure
Others
Cash Flow From Investing
(3,443)
1,144
559
(1,164)
(669)
10,040
15,036
13,425
12,119
13,564
(1,252)
(698)
(950)
(950)
(950)
854
815
800
800
800
(398)
117
(150)
(150)
(150)
0
Loans
(608)
23
1
0
Equity
(19)
(18)
0
0
0
10,352
12,527
12,543
12,708
13,336
Dividends
361
600
(642)
(25)
(25)
10,087
13,132
11,902
12,683
13,311
19,728
28,285
25,177
24,652
26,725
Gross Margin (%)
25.0
24.4
23.4
23.8
24.3
Operating Margin (%)
16.8
16.3
15.8
15.8
16.0
Pre-Tax Margin (%)
17.8
17.0
16.5
16.5
16.7
Net Margin (%)
13.4
12.8
12.4
12.3
12.5
ROA (%)
31.7
29.6
29.9
31.1
32.4
ROE (%)
38.6
37.1
37.8
39.4
41.1
ROIC (%)
40.6
39.4
40.0
41.6
43.2
Acct. Receivables TO (days)
Others
Cash Flow From Financing
Changes in Cash
Financial Ratios
18.6
16.2
14.6
15.5
15.5
Acct. Receivables - Other TO (days)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Inventory TO (days)
3.7
4.0
4.2
4.1
4.1
18.0
18.4
17.6
17.8
17.8
Acct. Payables - Other TO (days)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Debt to Equity (%)
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Interest Coverage Ratio (x)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(14.5)
(21.7)
(17.0)
(15.9)
(15.6)
Payable TO (days)
Net Gearing (%)
Source : HMSP,IndoPremier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
6
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS
BUY
: Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD
: Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL
: Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION.
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS
This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any
responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for
general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the
particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or
sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this
report.
15 August 2018
(HMSP IJ)
Re-initiate coverage
BUY
Gaining ground in SKM
Stock Data
Target price (Rp)
Rp3,950
Prior TP (Rp)
Shareprice (Rp)
SKM-LT faces increasing troubles from public smoking ban and vaping
Rp3,510
Upside/downside (%)
Capitalizing HMSP’s flagship brand to capture bigger customer base
+12.5
Sharesoutstanding (m)
111
Marketcap. (US$ m)
Re-initiate at BUY with TP of Rp3,950 (based on target P/E of 32.5x)
27
Free float (%)
7.5
Avg. 6m dailyT/O (US$ m)
5.8
Minimal sign of recovery. Industry volume was in negative growth territory since
1H16, albeit moderating, declining only by 1.5% yoy in 1H18 (vs. -6.7% in 1H17).
Volume declined by 0.7% in 2Q18 (vs. 1Q18: -2.4%; 2Q17: -9.4%), signaling minor
improvement in cigarette consumption. Industry volume is expected to pick-up in 2H18
by 10% from 144.5bn in 1H18, mimicking general trend from last year (2H17: +9.5%),
as manufacturers are pilling-up inventories for year-end to avoid possibility of higher
excise in fiscal budget 2019 which to be announced next month, with expectation for
10% hikes in excise for 2019F (vs. 2018: 10.0%; 2017:10.5%; 2016: 14.2%).
Price Performance
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
-2.0
-27.6
-2.2
Relative to JCI (%)
-1.7
-15.2
-0.7
52w high/low (Rp)
SKM-LT volume growth slumped. We still expect industry volume to drop further, by
-1.5% FY18F (vs-0.9% FY17), due to further volume decline in the hand-rolled
category (SKT) (1H18: -5.1%; 1H17: -8.3%) as consumers continue to shift towards
machine made kretek (SKM) cigarette products. SKT vs SKM composition stood at
17%: 78% in 1H18 (vs. 18%: 76% in 2016). Furthermore, within the SKM category,
SKM-Low Tar (LT) category had recorded negative volume growth since last year
(1H18: -7.4%; 1H17: -6.9%), contradicting trend of rising youth smokers. SKM-LT’s
share dropped to 40.1% of market in 1H18 (vs. 42.6% in 1H17). The decline might be
due to the impact of public smoking ban that restrict people from smoking in social
environments and rising popularity of vaping, particularly in the urban areas.
5,500 - 3,280
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
HMSP-Rebase
Jul-18
JCI Index-Rebase
Major Shareholders
Phillips Morris Indonesia
92.5%
Public
7.5%
Estimate Change; Vs. Consensus
2018F
2019F
Latest EPS (Rp)
115
121
Vs. Prior EPS (%)
N/A
N/A
Vs. Consensus (%)
-2.1
-3.6
Source: Bloomberg
Putri Tobing, CFA
PT Indo Premier Sekuritas
[email protected]
+62 21 5793 1168
Aug-18
Jun-18
Jun-18
Apr-18
May-18
Apr-18
Mar-18
Jan-18
Feb-18
Jan-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Sep-17
90
Nov-17
100
Aug-17
Equity | Indonesia | Tobacco
Industry vol. might stay low as 1H18’s result was not too impressive
n.a
Aiming for bigger share. HMSP managed to book better-than-industry-performance,
recording +0.9% volume growth in 2Q18 (vs. 1Q18:-1.7%; 2Q17: -13.3%), bringing
1H18 volume to 48mn sticks, or -0.4% yoy (vs 1H17: -10.3%). Sales improved by
8.4% in 2Q18 (vs 2.5% in 1Q18; 2Q17: -5.5%), which indicated HMSP’s strong pricing
power to keep positive sales growth trends. HMSP’s market share increased to 33.2%
in 1H18 from 32.9% last year, in-line with improvement in market share of Dji Sam
Soe (DJJ). DJJ is HMSP’s flagship in the SKT category, only last year HMSP launched
DJJ Magnum Mild 16s variant under its SKM category. While, it is our view that HMSP’s
position might not too favorable compare to GGRM, due to HMSP’s lower exposure to
SKM-FF category (HMSP: 40% vs GGRM: 60%), we view HMSP’s strategy to use DJJ in
the SKM category as a positive catalyst. We expect HMSP’s position in the SKM to
improve, as HSMP has larger products portfolio, complementing its two pioneer’s
brands, Sampoerna A (SKM-FF) and Sampoerna U (SKM-LT), while at the same time
creating mid-price-SKM-product to capture bigger customer based.
Valuations. We re-initiate coverage with BUY rating and TP of Rp 3,950, which is
based on our target P/E of 32.5x, in-line with HMSP’s 5 years average. We expect sales
growth of 4.3%/5.3% FY18F/FY19F (vs. CAGR 7.1% over FY14-FY17) and GPM of
c.24% (vs. 25% over FY15-FY17), assuming 9% average increase in excise for FY19F
in our model. We expect HMSP’s EBIT margin to remain at c.16%, in-line with HMSP’s 3
years average, as we expect company to maintain its selling expense stable, as evident
in OPEX-to-sales ratio that continued to decline to 7.9% in 1H18 (vs 8.3% over FY15FY17). HMSP’s share price has underperformed the overall market index due to
industry weak sales growth. Today, stock traded at 1.5-SD below HMSP’s trading
average. Thus, any positive news could trigger share price acceleration, in our view.
Year To 31 Dec
Revenue (RpBn)
EBITDA (RpBn)
EBITDA Growth (%)
Net Profit (RpBn)
EPS (Rp)
EPS Growth (%)
Net Gearing (%)
PER (x)
PBV (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Source : HMSP, IndoPremier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
2016A
95,467
16,745
13.9
12,762
115
23.1
(14.5)
30.6
11.4
2.6
23.6
2017A
99,091
16,977
1.4
12,670
114
(0.7)
(21.7)
30.9
11.5
3.2
23.5
2018F
103,580
17,199
1.3
12,836
115
1.3
(17.0)
30.5
11.6
3.2
23.1
2019F
109,088
18,112
5.3
13,471
121
4.9
(15.9)
29.0
11.3
3.3
21.9
2020F
115,016
19,421
7.2
14,403
129
6.9
(15.6)
27.1
11.0
3.4
20.4
Share Price Closing as of : 14-August-2018
HMSP IJ Re-Initiate Coverage
Fig. 1: Indonesia’s cigarette production
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 3: Industry segmentation (%)
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 5: HMSP’s market share
Source: Indo Premier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Fig. 2: Industry breakdown (%) as of 2Q18
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 4: SKM breakdown (%)
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 6: HMSP’s market share in each segment
Source: Indo Premier
2
HMSP IJ Re-Initiate Coverage
Fig. 7: HMSP’s sales breakdown as of 1H18
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 9: HMSP’s quarterly volume trends
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 11:
Our sales and sales growth forecast
Source: Indo Premier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Fig. 8: GGRM’s sales breakdown as of 1Q18
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 10: HMSP’s quarterly sales trends
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 12:
Our gross margin forecast
Source: Indo Premier
3
HMSP IJ Re-Initiate Coverage
Fig. 13:
HMSP’s cost structure as of 1H18
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 15:
HMSP’s quarterly EBIT and EBIT margin trends
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 17:
Our EBIT and EBIT margin forecast
Source: Indo Premier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Fig. 14:
HMSP’s excise expense trends
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 16: OPEX growth trends
Source: Indo Premier
Fig. 18: :
Our Earnings forecast
Source: Indo Premier
4
HMSP IJ Re-Initiate Coverage
Year To 31 Dec (RpBn)
2016A
2017A
2018F
2019F
2020F
Income Statement
Net Revenue
95,467
99,091
103,580
109,088
115,016
Cost of Sales
(71,612)
(74,875)
(79,296)
(83,149)
(87,107)
Gross Profit
23,855
24,216
24,284
25,939
27,909
SG&A Expenses
(7,834)
(8,104)
(7,935)
(8,744)
(9,472)
Operating Profit
16,020
16,112
16,349
17,195
18,438
832
791
775
775
775
Net Interest
Forex Gain (Loss)
Others-Net
0
0
0
0
0
159
(9)
(9)
(9)
(9)
Pre-Tax Income
17,011
16,894
17,115
17,961
19,204
Income Tax
(4,249)
(4,224)
(4,279)
(4,490)
(4,801)
0
0
0
0
0
12,762
12,670
12,836
13,471
14,403
Cash & Equivalent
5,056
7,501
5,868
5,598
5,654
Receivable
4,996
3,781
4,503
4,743
5,001
19,442
18,023
19,824
20,787
21,777
Minorities
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Inventory
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets - Net
Goodwill
Non Current Assets
Total Assets
4,153
4,875
3,462
3,568
3,681
33,647
34,180
33,657
34,696
36,113
6,895
6,891
6,991
7,024
6,991
60
60
60
60
60
1,843
1,947
1,947
1,947
1,947
42,508
43,141
42,718
43,790
45,174
0
0
0
0
0
Payable
3,871
3,666
0
4,157
4,355
Other Payables
2,537
2,787
2,390
2,506
2,625
ST Loans
21
29
29
29
29
6,428
6,482
6,384
6,692
7,009
66
81
81
81
81
1,839
2,465
2,465
2,465
2,465
8,333
9,027
8,929
9,238
9,555
Equity
21,549
21,531
20,914
20,914
20,914
Retained Earnings
12,626
12,582
12,875
13,638
14,705
0
0
0
0
0
34,175
34,113
33,789
34,552
35,619
42,508
43,140
42,718
43,790
45,174
Current Portion of LT Loans
Total Current Liab.
Long Term Loans
Other LT Liab.
Total Liabilities
Minority Interest
Total SHE + Minority Int.
Total Liabilities & Equity
Source : HMSP,IndoPremier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
5
HMSP IJ Re-Initiate Coverage
Year to 31 Dec
2016A
2017A
2018F
2019F
2020F
12,762
12,670
12,836
13,471
14,403
Depr. & Amortization
595
598
850
917
983
Changes in Working Capital
126
624
(821)
(1,105)
(1,152)
Cash Flow
Net Income (Excl.Extraordinary&Min.Int)
Others
Cash Flow From Operating
Capital Expenditure
Others
Cash Flow From Investing
(3,443)
1,144
559
(1,164)
(669)
10,040
15,036
13,425
12,119
13,564
(1,252)
(698)
(950)
(950)
(950)
854
815
800
800
800
(398)
117
(150)
(150)
(150)
0
Loans
(608)
23
1
0
Equity
(19)
(18)
0
0
0
10,352
12,527
12,543
12,708
13,336
Dividends
361
600
(642)
(25)
(25)
10,087
13,132
11,902
12,683
13,311
19,728
28,285
25,177
24,652
26,725
Gross Margin (%)
25.0
24.4
23.4
23.8
24.3
Operating Margin (%)
16.8
16.3
15.8
15.8
16.0
Pre-Tax Margin (%)
17.8
17.0
16.5
16.5
16.7
Net Margin (%)
13.4
12.8
12.4
12.3
12.5
ROA (%)
31.7
29.6
29.9
31.1
32.4
ROE (%)
38.6
37.1
37.8
39.4
41.1
ROIC (%)
40.6
39.4
40.0
41.6
43.2
Acct. Receivables TO (days)
Others
Cash Flow From Financing
Changes in Cash
Financial Ratios
18.6
16.2
14.6
15.5
15.5
Acct. Receivables - Other TO (days)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Inventory TO (days)
3.7
4.0
4.2
4.1
4.1
18.0
18.4
17.6
17.8
17.8
Acct. Payables - Other TO (days)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Debt to Equity (%)
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Interest Coverage Ratio (x)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(14.5)
(21.7)
(17.0)
(15.9)
(15.6)
Payable TO (days)
Net Gearing (%)
Source : HMSP,IndoPremier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
6
Head Office
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Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
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INVESTMENT RATINGS
BUY
: Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD
: Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL
: Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION.
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS
This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any
responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for
general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the
particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or
sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this
report.