Validity of Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health Score to Predict Serious.

I WAYAN GUSTAWAN

1

Background
 the increase of child mortality in developing country,

 the high incidence of serious bacterial infection in

children,
 the variety of risk factors of serious infections,
 current scoring model has not been tested in limited
health care centre.

Craig JC, Williams GJ, Jones M, Codarini M, Macaskill P, Hayen A, et al. The accuracy of clinical symptoms and signs for the
diagnosis of serious bacterial infection in young febrile children: prospective cohort study of 15 781 febrile illnesses. BMJ
2010;340:1-12
Opiyo N, English M. What clinical signs best identify severe illness in young infants aged 0–59 days in developing countries? A
systematic review. Arch Dis Child. 2011;96:1052–59

2


Background……

 In clinical practice, discriminating children with SBI

from those with other self limiting infections is
challenging.
 A simple, validated clinical tool to risk stratify and
guide further management of children with suspected
SBI would greatly improve their care.

Craig JC, Williams GJ, Jones M, Codarini M, Macaskill P, Hayen A, et al. The accuracy of clinical symptoms and signs for the
diagnosis of serious bacterial infection in young febrile children: prospective cohort study of 15 781 febrile illnesses. BMJ
2010;340:1-12
Opiyo N, English M. What clinical signs best identify severe illness in young infants aged 0–59 days in developing countries? A
systematic review. Arch Dis Child. 2011;96:1052–59

3

Objective.

 to know the validity of of Royal College of Paediatrics

and Child Health Score (SBI score) to predict serious
bacterial infection in children with fever and
 Validity of SBI score in different cut off point
 Validity of SBI score based on age category

 to find predictor factors of the serious infection.

4

Method.

 Diagnostic study was used to find validity of RCPCH

Score and cohort prospective study to find predictor
factors of the serious infection.
 Gold standard was the latest diagnosis noted on
medical record based on ICD-10.
 All tests were done blind.


5

 Sample Population : febrile children 1 months-12

years old who was come to emergency department and
policlinic Sanglah Hospital that eligible for inclusion
and exclusion criteria.
 Convenient sampling
 January - December 2014.

6

Inclusion criteria :
1. Febrile children less than 7 days,
2. Come first time for that febrile episode and
accompanied by parents,
3. Parents agree to joint in this study.

Exclusion criteria :

• Febrile children with emergency condition,
• Parent didn’t have hand phone or home
number.
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8

9

 Statistical Methods :
 Analysis were performed using computer
 Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative
predictive value, positive likelihood rasio, negative
likelihood rasio, post test probability, area under ROC curve
were reported
 Logistic regression were performed to find predictor factor
for SBI
 Ethics approval was granted by the Ethics Comitte (Badan

Litbang FK UNUD/RSUP Sanglah Denpasar).


10

Results

 There were 260 subjects. Seven patients of out-patient

department could not be reached so analysis was done
on 253 subjects (97.3%).
 There were more male than female with the ratio of
1.14:1.
 Age group of >36 months dominated the subject
population (51.4%).
 Serious bacterial infection was found on 28.9% subject
with the most diagnosis was pneumonia (19%).
11

12

Table 9. Characteristic of study populations (n =253)

Variable
Age (n, %)
1-36 months
> 36 months
Sex (n, %)
Male
Female
Status of patients (n, %)
Hospitalized
Ambulatory
Laboratory examination
WBC, n = 241 (n, mean)
SBI
Non SBI
CRP, n = 44 (n, mean)
SBI
Non SBI
Procalsitonin, n = 24 (n, mean)
SBI
Non SBI

Blood culture, n = 57 (n, %)
Bacteremia
No growth

123 (48,6)
130 (51,4)
135 (53,4)
118 (46,6)
239 (94,5)
14 (5,5)

72 (16,99 x 103/ul)
169 (7,97 x 103/ul))
33 (31,85 mg/L)
11 (3,77 mg/L)
20 (65,35 ng/ml)
4 (8,5 ng/ml)
15 (26,3)
42 (73,7)


WBC white blood cell; SBI serious bacterial infection; CRP C-reactive protein.

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Table 10. Distribution of diagnosis
Diagnosis
SBI
Acute Otitis Media
Empiema
Pneumonia
Diarrhea by bacterial infection
Sepsis
Tonsilopharyngitis bacterial
Urinary tract infection
Non SBI
Dengue Shock Syndrome
Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever
Dengue fever
Febrile convulsion
Bronchiolitis

Ensephalitis
Diarrhea by viral infection
Others

n (%)
4 (1,6)
3 (1,2)
48 (19,0)
4 (1,6)
6 (2,4)
3 (1,2)
5(2,0)

22 (8,7)
49 (19,4)
31 (12,3)
16 (6,3)
9 (3,6)
6 (2,4)
5 (2,01)

42 (16,7)

SBI serious bacterial infection
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Table 11. Validity of SBI score to evaluate serious bacterial infection in febrile children

Diagnosis

SBI score

Total

SBI

Non SBI

SBI

43


24

67

Non SBI

30

156

186

Total

73

180

253

Sensitivity 58,9% (95% CI 47,5-69,5), specificity 86,7% (95% CI 80,9-90,9),
positive predictive value 64,2% (95% CI 54,2-73,1), negative predictive value
83,8% (95% CI 79,7- 87,3), positive likelihood rasio 4,42 (95% CI 2,91-6,72),
negative likelihood rasio 0,47 (95% CI 0,36-0,63), post test probability 64,23
per 100 (95% CI 54,2-73,1), area under ROC curve 72,8% (95% CI 66,6-79,0).

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Table 12. Diagnostic test of SBI score in different cut off point

Cut off point SBI score to predict SBI
3

95% CI

4

95% CI

5

95% CI

6

95% CI

7

95% CI

Sens

87,7

78,2-93,4

71,2

59,9-80,4

58,9

47,5-69,5

34,2

24,4-45,7

24,7

16,2-35,64

Spec

43,9

36,8-51,2

70,0

62,9-76,2

86,7

80,9-90,9

91,6

86,7-94,9

96,7

92,9-98,5

PPV

38,8

35,2-42,6

49,1

42,5-55,8

64,2

54,2-73,1

62,6

48,5-74,8

75,0

56,1-87,6

NPV

89,8

82,5-94,2

85,7

80,5-89,7

83,8

79,7-87,3

77,4

74,3-80,3

75,9

73,4-78,3

PLR

1,6

1,3-1,8

2,4

1,8-3,1

4,4

2,9-6,7

4,1

2,3-7,3

7,4

3,1-17,9

NLR

0,3

0,2-0,5

0,4

0,3-0,6

0,5

0,4-0,6

0,7

0,6-0,9

0,8

0,7-0,9

Prevalens

28,9

PTP

38,4

35,2-42,6

49,11

42,5-55,8

64,2

54,2-73,1

62,55

48,5-74,8

75,04

56,1-87,6

AUC

65,8

60,5-71,0

70,6

64,4-76,8

72,8

66,6-79,0

63,0

57,2-68,8

60,7

55,5-65,8

28,9

28,9

28,9

28,9

Sens Sensitivity; Spes specificity, PPV positive predictive value; NPV negative predictive value; PLR
positive likelihood rasio; NLR negative likelihood rasio; PTP post test probability; AUC area under ROC
curve

16

Tabel 13. Diagnostic test of SBI score based on age category
Diagnostic test of SBI score based on age
1-36 bulan

95% CI

> 36 bulan

95% CI

Sens (%)

61,40

48,43-72,94

50,00

28,00-72,00

Spec (%)

80,30

69,16-88,11

90,35

83,54-94,53

PPV (%)

72,9

61,48-81,95

42,1

25,8-60,3

NPV (%)

70,7

62,98-77,33

92,8

88,72-95,48

PLR (%)

3,12

1,84-5,29

5,18

2,46-10,92

NLR (%)

0,48

0,34-0,68

0,55

0,34-0,91

Prevalence

46,3

PTP (%)

72,92

61,48-81,95

42,09

25,80-60,30

AUC (%)

70,9

62,9-78,8

70,2

57,6-82,7

12,3

Sens Sensitivity; Spes specificity, PPV positive predictive value; NPV negative predictive value; PLR
positive likelihood rasio; NLR negative likelihood rasio; PTP post test probability; AUC area under
ROC curve

17

Table 14. Univariate Analysis of predictor for serious bacterial infection
No

Variable

SBI

Non SBI

p

N

%

N

%

Age
1-36 months
>36 months

57
16

46,3
12,3

66
114

53,7
87,7

0,001

2

Sex; male

45

33,3

90

66,7

0,093

3

Duration of
(n,median)

73

4,09

180

4,18

0,624**

4

Cough

52

52,0

48

48,0

5

Rhinorrhea

41

48,8

43

6

Breathing difficulty

44

74,6

7

Diarrhea

10

8

Convulsion

9

OR

95%CI

Min

Max

6,2

3,2

11,6

1,6

0,9

2,7

0,001

6,8

3,7

12,5

51,2

0,001

4,1

2,3

7,3

15

25,4

0,001

16,5

8,2

33,6

41,7

14

58,3

0,149

1,9

0,8

4,4

2

6,5

29

93,5

0,003*

6,8

1,6

29,4

Unconsciousness

6

20,0

24

80,0

0,254

1,1

0,9

1,4

10

Dysuria

0

0

2

100,0

1,000*

1,4

1,3

1,5

11

Development delay

4

50,0

4

50,0

0,233*

2,6

0,6

10,5

12

Risk of infection

32

32,3

67

67,7

0,329

1,3

0,8

2,3

13

State variation
Eye closed

23

46,0

27

54,0

0,003

2,6

1,3

4,9

14

Temperature ≥ 37,5

71

35,7

128

64,3

0,001

14,4

3,4

60,9

15

CRT >2 s

12

25,0

36

75,0

0,513

0,8

0,4

1,6

16

Dehydration

12

50,0

12

50,0

0,016

2,8

1,2

6,5

17

Tachypnoea

51

64,6

28

35,4

0,001

12,6

6,6

23,9

18

Hypoxia

30

65,2

16

34,8

0,001

7,2

3,6

14,3

1

CRT Capillary refill time
*Uji Fisher
**Uji Mann-Whitney

fever

18

Table 15. Multivariate Analysis of predictor for serious bacterial infections
Step

Variabel

Step 6

Cough
Breathing difficulty
Diarrhea
Convulsion
Age
Temperature
Hipoxia
Tachypnoea
Constanta

B

OR

P

1,036
0,951
1,285
2,487
0,859
2,055
1,236
1,033
-7,119

2,819
2,589
3,614
12,027
2,360
7,809
3,441
2,810
0,010

0,023
0,064
0,029
0,003
0,051
0,016
0,012
0,026
0,000

95% CI
Min
Max
1,153
6,891
0,945
7,098
1,140 11,455
2,374 60,886
0,997
5,586
1,476 41,305
1,318
8,984
1,135
6,960

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DISCUSSION
 Clinical scoring model to predict SBI in children was less

reported.

 Brent et al demonstrates the potential utility of a clinical score

in risk stratifying children with suspected SBI  Royal
College of Paediatrics and Child Health score (SBI score)
 Validation of this score in different setting has not been
reported.

•Brent AJ, Lakhanpaul M, Thompson M, Collier J, Ray S, Ninis N, et al. Risk score to stratify children with suspected
serious bacterial infection: observational cohort study Arch Dis Child. 2011;96: 361–367.

 This is first study in Indonesia

 This scoring model has not been tested in limited

health care centre
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SCREENING TOOL
 Sensitivity

 Likelihood ratio

 Post-test probability

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This study :
• Sensitivity 58,9% and specificity 86,7%
• PPV 64,2% and NPV 83,8%
• Positive LR 4,42 and negative LR 0,47
• Post test probability 64,23 per 100 (95% CI 54,2-73,1),
• Area under ROC curve 72,8%
 Low sensitivity was not good for screening

 Positive LR 4,42 ( 95% CI 2,91- 6,72) : small

change from pre-test probability to post-test
probability.

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………….VALIDITY of SBI score

 Other component : post-test probability.
 In this study :

 post-test probability 64,23%,  we can used this score

but it must continue with the other test

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………….VALIDITAS SKOR IBS

Risk factor Analysis for SBI

 Clinical symptoms and signs as predictor of SBI has

been reported by many study with different result.
 Hsiao et al16 find age and height of fever were not

significant predictor of SBI. White blood cell count and
CRP were elevated in infant with SBI.

•Hsiao AL, Chen L, Baker MD. Incidence and predictors of serious bacterial infection among 57 to 180
day old infant. Pediatrics journal. 2006; 117:1695-701.

………….Validity of SBI Score

Risk factor analysis for SBI …………..

 Trautner et al, child less than 18 years old who come to

emergency department with hyperpirexia , risk for SBI : age < 36
months, chronic illness, diarrhea, fever more than 48 hours, absolute
neutrophil count ≥ x 3 sel/mm3.

 Opiyo et al, systematic review, among sick infants aged 0–59

days, the most valuable in identifying infants at risk of severe illness :
history of feeding difficulty, history of convulsions, temperature
axillary ≥3 . °C or